06/02/2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central and eastern NM into west TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022248Z - 030115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and localized severe gusts will continue into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Several slow-moving but vigorous storms are ongoing from parts of south-central/eastern NM into Far West TX as of 2230 UTC, while more isolated strong storms have moved into the western TX Panhandle. Strong heating and relatively moist low-level east-southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg in place outside of areas already influenced by convective outflow.
Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but the backed low-level flow veering to weak south-southwesterlies aloft is supporting effective shear of 20-25 kt, with locally greater values over parts of NM. In conjunction with the favorable instability, this magnitude of deep-layer will continue to support potential for strong multicells and perhaps a transient slow-moving supercell, with attendant potential for isolated hail and localized severe gusts. Some consolidation of outflow is possible with time, which could result in a somewhat broader area of strong to locally severe gusts from eastern NM into parts of west TX this evening, before convection generally weakens with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization.
.Dean/Guyer.. 06/02/2026
..Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN