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VENEZUELA: The Trump administration is moving closer to a direct confrontation with Venezuela, raising the possibility ...
10/06/2025

VENEZUELA: The Trump administration is moving closer to a direct confrontation with Venezuela, raising the possibility of what the president once vowed to avoid: another US-backed regime change (Eurasia Group).

The Trump administration is moving closer to a direct confrontation with Venezuela, raising the possibility of what the president once vowed to avoid: another US-backed regime change.

PAKISTAN/INDIA: Almost three months after Operation Sindoor and the subsequent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, lo...
10/04/2025

PAKISTAN/INDIA: Almost three months after Operation Sindoor and the subsequent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, locals and social media reported that on 5 August there was firing from across the border, an allegation the army denied, stating there were no ceasefire violations. The incident once again stirred anxiety among the people, as tensions between the two countries continue to remain high. As such, the emotional and psychological trauma of the people has become a persistent reality (Peace Insight).

Almost three months after Operation Sindoor and the subsequent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, locals and social media reported that on 5 August there was firing from across the border, an allegation the army denied, stating there were no ceasefire violations. The incident once again stirred a...

SUDAN: The war in Sudan is not a “forgotten war”. Rather, it is a highly internationalised geopolitical battleground, r...
10/04/2025

SUDAN: The war in Sudan is not a “forgotten war”. Rather, it is a highly internationalised geopolitical battleground, reflecting old peacebuilding failures and key implications of the shifting international order for conflict dynamics (Finnish Institute of International Affairs).

The war in Sudan is not a “forgotten war”. Rather, it is a highly internationalised geopolitical battleground, reflecting old peacebuilding failures and key implications of the shifting international order for conflict dynamics.

ARCTIC: Russian expansionism in the Arctic is increasingly becoming a key security challenge for Europe. Despite much o...
10/04/2025

ARCTIC: Russian expansionism in the Arctic is increasingly becoming a key security challenge for Europe. Despite much of Russia’s resources being used for the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has continued to invest heavily in building out its presence and revamping its existing bases in the Arctic. The region is becoming a hotbed for hybrid activity. Russia sealed off large swathes of the Barents Sea, including parts of Norway’s exclusive economic zone, for its most recent Zapad-2025 exercises with Belarus, and practised cruise missile launches over the Arctic (Chatham House).

European Arctic strategies have tended to downplay the links between security and economic interests. In an increasingly tense geopolitical environment, this connection is key.

GAZA: On Friday, Hamas agreed to release all of the remaining hostages that it captured during its October 7, 2023, te...
10/04/2025

GAZA: On Friday, Hamas agreed to release all of the remaining hostages that it captured during its October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, and the Israeli government said it was preparing for the hostages’ “prompt release.” But at the same time, Hamas called for further negotiations over a US- and Israeli-backed proposal for ending the Israel-Hamas war. US President Donald Trump responded by saying that “Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza” to allow for the hostages’ release. What does Hamas’s statement signal about a potential cease-fire? And how will Israel respond? (Atlantic Council).

On Friday, Hamas agreed to release all of the remaining hostages that it captured during its October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel. Our experts share their perspectives on what this means for a potential cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: Without bold and decisive action, acute injustices within and between countries risk undermi...
10/04/2025

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: Without bold and decisive action, acute injustices within and between countries risk undermining global stability and collective progress. This third edition of the Future of International Cooperation Report (FIC’25) focuses on how institutions and the practice of governance — operating at global and regional levels — can contribute to more just societies by protecting human rights, fostering inclusion, and leveraging innovation to bridge long-standing divisions (Stimson Center).

By offering concrete proposals for innovating global and regional governance to promote and safeguard justice in all its dimensions, this report gives Doha Forum participants and concerned citizens and governments worldwide the tools to chart a course toward a more just, more prosperous, and safer f...

ASIA PACIFIC: Economic security is growing increasingly central to trade policy in the Asia Pacific, shifting cooperati...
10/04/2025

ASIA PACIFIC: Economic security is growing increasingly central to trade policy in the Asia Pacific, shifting cooperation away from traditional forums and areas of focus towards loosely organised networks linking economic and security-based goals. While this trend may strengthen resilience through diversification, it could also entrench exclusive blocs and undermine an open regional order (East Asia Forum).

The Asia Pacific’s Trump-led turn towards economic security may be an undeniable reality, but fragmentation carries serious risks.

BOSNIA: In late November, early presidential elections will be held in Republika Srpska. They will mark the closure of ...
10/03/2025

BOSNIA: In late November, early presidential elections will be held in Republika Srpska. They will mark the closure of attempts by its deposed president, Milorad Dodik, to separate the autonomous entity from Bosnia. Despite this progress, the Western Balkans remain a fragile region with Bosnia as an explosive point. Leaders in the EU and its member states need to pay increased attention to developments in a country that will only grow more unsettled until next year’s general elections. To safeguard regional stability as the United States withdraws and to keep Bosnia on the EU track, Germany should take a more proactive role and help to develop a new European approach to adjusting Bosnia’s international supervision (German Council on Foreign Relations).

Germany should act now to help develop a new European approach to adjusting Bosnia’s international supervision.

GAZA PEACE PLAN: Thanks to European and Arab engagement, Trump’s peace plan for Gaza gets the basics mostly right: it r...
10/03/2025

GAZA PEACE PLAN: Thanks to European and Arab engagement, Trump’s peace plan for Gaza gets the basics mostly right: it rejects the forcible displacement of Gazans and Israeli annexation of the Strip, accepts a future role for the Palestinian Authority (PA), and gives guarded support for Palestinian self-determination—all major shifts in US policy. Beyond a full end to the war and hostage release, the plan also envisages a complete staged Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups (European Council on Foreign Relations).

Trump’s peace plan could finally bring an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza. But gaps in timing, guarantees, and last-minute Israeli amendments risk failure u

KAZAKHSTAN: Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in his annual address to the nation on September 8, announced sweep...
10/03/2025

KAZAKHSTAN: Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in his annual address to the nation on September 8, announced sweeping reforms, including digitalization and the creation of a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to modernize governance and boost efficiency. The new “Digital Qazaqstan” strategy aims to unify all national AI and digital initiatives, promoting innovation-driven growth (Jamestown Foundation).

Executive Summary: Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in his annual address to the nation on September 8, announced sweeping reforms, including digitalization and the creation of a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to modernize governance and boost efficiency. The new “Digital Qazaqsta...

PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN: Four years after the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, Afghanistan remains in a fragile state o...
10/03/2025

PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN: Four years after the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, Afghanistan remains in a fragile state of transition, hindered by institutional voids and mounting governance challenges. Among the most urgent is the need to professionalize its security forces. The recent earthquake exposed glaring shortfalls in emergency response, highlighting a deeper crisis: Afghanistan sits on billions of dollars’ worth of advanced Western military equipment but lacks the skills to operate, maintain, or strategically deploy it. Without assistance, this stockpile risks becoming a dangerous liability (Diplomatic Courier).

Oct 02, 2025 // The Taliban’s return to Kabul has been characterized by institutional voids and mounting governance challenges. It has also contributed to a crisis of unpreparedness among Afghanistan’s security forces, but Pakistan could help, writes Asha Castleberry–Hernandez.

TAIWAN/CHINA: In October 1973, Israel was encircled and almost faced defeat when Egypt and Syria orchestrated a surpris...
10/03/2025

TAIWAN/CHINA: In October 1973, Israel was encircled and almost faced defeat when Egypt and Syria orchestrated a surprise assault against Israel on the most sacred day of the Jewish calendar, Yom Kippur. Within a couple of hours, Israel incurred severe losses in personnel and materiel under pressure from two fronts. The U.S., while executing an emergency airlift mission and declaring a DEFCON 3 nuclear alert, realized that supporting an ally on simultaneous fronts entailed strategic perils that extended beyond the battlefield (Modern Diplomacy).

After half a century, the Indo-Pacific is confronted with a parallel scenario: the likelihood of a dual contingency where China seeks to unify Taiwan by force

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