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Our World, Eleanor, WV (2025)

10/12/2025

PUERTO RICO/VENEZUELA: The United States is overseeing a seismic reordering of defense priorities and assets to the Western Hemisphere. At the time of this writing, four destroyers, one cruiser, one nuclear-powered attack submarine, one landing helicopter dock, two amphibious vessels, and one special operations platform, alongside a host of enablers and support vessels, are present in the Caribbean. In total, more than 10 percent of all deployed U.S. naval assets are currently located in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. These forces are more than a mere show of force; since the first warships entered the region in August, the U.S. military has conducted at least four lethal strikes against alleged drug trafficking boats in international waters, killing at least 21 (Center for Strategic & International Studies).

CSIS Americas experts assess the buildup of military forces in the Caribbean and the importance of Puerto Rico for U.S. power projection.

10/12/2025

USA: U.S. adults’ ratings of the national economy continue to be more negative than positive: 26% now say economic conditions are excellent or good, while 74% say they are only fair or poor (Pew Research Center).

Nearly three-in-four U.S. adults (74%) say economic conditions are only fair or poor, up slightly from 72% in January 2024.

10/12/2025

VENEZUELA: The U.S. military has struck at least four vessels that originated from Venezuela since the start of September, killing more than twenty people. President Donald Trump and his administration have alleged that these boats were carrying narcotics and were operated by Venezuelan cartels, like Tren de Aragua, which it designated a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) earlier this year. The White House has framed the operations as acts of national self-defense against “narco-terrorism” in the Caribbean Sea (Council on Foreign Relations).

The White House may have reason to believe that international drug trafficking is a grave threat to Americans, but it hasn’t persuasively made the legal case that cartels are waging a war against the…

10/12/2025

CAMEROON: Cameroon is set to hold a presidential election on 12 October. President Paul Biya, 92, will seek to extend his 42-year tenure, despite growing concerns about his undecided succession. Meanwhile, the space for political dissent is shrinking, while the causes of disputes that tainted previous polls remain unresolved (International Crisis Group).

Cameroon’s October presidential election will be a stress test for the country’s stability. Frustrations with the incumbent and ruling party, constraints on dissent, armed conflict and ethnic tensions all pose dangers. Yaoundé should start taking steps now to make the vote as credible as possib...

10/10/2025

EGYPT: This week Egypt hosted indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which have yielded an agreement to implement the first stage of US President Donald Trump’s plan to end the Gaza war. This will entail the return of all the Israeli hostages held in Gaza, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and a partial pullback of Israeli forces. Egypt handled these negotiations in partnership with Qatari, Turkish and US officials. That is in keeping with its policy of trying to ensure that the resolution of the conflict is a collective effort (Chatham House).

Egypt wants to lock in a long-term commitment from other countries to ensure it is not left to secure Gaza alone.

10/10/2025

MIDDLE EAST: Hamas’ attack on Israel two years ago and the events unfolding in its wake have reverberated beyond the Middle East. The war in Gaza; the spillover into Houthi attacks in the Red Sea; escalation of tensions between Iran, on one hand, and Israel and the United States, on the other; and the nuclear standoff in the Persian Gulf are leaving a lasting global imprint that affects the international order, global security and trade, multilateralism, the transatlantic relationship, and international law (German Marshall Fund).

Hamas’ attack on Israel two years ago and the events unfolding in its wake have reverberated beyond the Middle East. The war in Gaza; the spillover into Houthi attacks in the Red Sea; escalation of tensions between Iran, on one hand, and Israel and the United States, on the other; and the nuclear ...

10/10/2025

USA: This month, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released findings on the Air Force’s troubled transition from the aging, silo-based Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to its far more advanced Sentinel replacement. We believe that the GAO report makes it evident that relying entirely on the current plan for silo-based ICBMs could pose grave risks that leave a future president with a far too-small ICBM force when the adversaries’ combined ICBMs have swelled (Hudson Institute).

This month, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released findings on the Air Force’s troubled transition from the aging, silo-based Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to its far more advan

10/10/2025

USA/CHINA: Trade relations between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico on the one hand, and with China on the other, are the world’s most consequential. Trade within North America is valued at over $1.7 trillion and supports around 17 million jobs.1 The U.S. is the key destination for Mexican and Canadian exports, comprising over 80% of Mexican goods exports and over 75% of Canadian exports in 2024. Approximately 22% of U.S. exports in 2024 went to Canada and Mexico.2 China is also a major trading partner for the U.S., Mexico, and Canada (Brooking Institute).

Joshua P. Meltzer and Maricarmen Barron Esper examine the data on Chinese circumvention of U.S. tariffs via Canada and Mexico.

10/10/2025

PERU: On October 10, Peru’s deeply unpopular congress impeached the country’s even more unpopular President Dina Boluarte, who recently polled at just three percent. José Jeri—a political novice elected with only around 11,000 votes in 2021, currently serving as president of Congress—became the country’s latest head of state (Council on Foreign Relations).

Real power lies not with the president but with congress, which is building a mafia state.

10/10/2025

MOLDOVA: When the Council of the European Union decided on 23 June 2022 to grant Moldova the status of EU candidate country, it boosted the morale of a beleaguered government in Chișinău trying to circumnavigate a daunting series of crises. Since Maia Sandu ousted Socialist President Igor Dodon in the presidential election in 2020 and her reform-oriented Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) obtained a parliamentary majority in 2021, Moldova has barely had a chance to catch its breath. In the year that followed, the country experienced an energy crisis that almost deprived it of gas in the winter of 2021-2022, a budding economic crisis with rampant inflation, and a security and refugee crisis as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine (Clingendael Institute).

The war in its immediate neighbourhood, with Russian troops advancing in the spring along Ukraine’s southern coast to barely over 100 kilometres of Moldova’s borders, has further complicated the already difficult geopolitical balancing act of successive Moldovan governments. A better understandi...

10/10/2025

EUROPE: Europe should re-listen to its great ancestors. Thucydides, the Athenian general and historian who wrote almost 2,500 years ago, has a hard-won reputation as the father of political realism. And at a time of rising threats and uncertain alliances, that can be priceless in guiding the continent along a perilous path. No battle is lost until it is fought, and Europe has many strengths. While it has blundered in its approach to the increasingly linked threats of Russia and China, it could still choose to reverse the situation through greater integration to enable large-scale force development (Center for European Policy Analysis).

What should be Europe’s strategy as aggressive imperial powers seek to conquer territory? Ancient Greece offers some guidance.

10/10/2025

RUSSIA: Russian incursions into NATO airspace have become alarmingly commonplace in recent weeks as Vladimir Putin escalates his shadow war against the West. The first clear signal of an upturn in hostile Kremlin activity came in early September when a wave of Russian drones crossed the border into Poland, sparking an armed response from NATO jets. Days later, three Russian fighters violated Estonian airspace. More recently, suspected Russian drones have forced shutdowns at international airports in a number of European countries including Denmark, Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands (Atlantic Council).

Putin the geopolitical gangster is trying to intimidate Europe into abandoning Ukraine with an escalating campaign of gray zone aggression designed to highlight the continent's vulnerability to Russian attack, writes Peter Dickinson.

Our World

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