06/12/2026
RUSSIA RUNNING OUT OF TANKS
Over the past few weeks, we have addressed many issues with the Russian economy, and how those issues impact the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine.
We have discussed the ballooning deficits that are occurring in the Russian
We have discussed the near depletion of the national wealth fund.
We have discussed how Russia is having to raise its taxes on its own citizens to rates that have never been realized before in order to stave off the bleeding.
And we have discussed how Ukraine through its hits on Russia petroleum infrastructure has dramatically, reduced the revenue available to Russia to funded war.
Today I want to address another symptom of the problems with the Russian economy.
That is the ability of Russia to replace its materiel and equipment used in its war against Ukraine.
Today we will address Russell‘s ability to replace its main battle tanks.
Satellite and OSINT data show pre-war reserves (~7,300 tanks) have dropped to around 2,900 .
• Only about 23% of those remaining are in decent, ready condition.
• Predictions indicate Russia’s reserves could be largely depleted by late 2025 or early 2026.
Oryx (open-source) estimates about 3,800 Russian tanks destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured since February 2022.
IISS reports that Russia lost over 4,000 main battle tanks (MBTs) in total since the start of the war, including approximately 1,400 in 2024 alone.
Ukrainian military intelligence cites ~11,435+ tanks lost by December 2025.
Some sources even report cumulative losses nearing 10,000 tanks; however, these higher numbers may include older reserve vehicles.
What has and what can Russia do to replace them?
Russia has begun reactivating older models such as T‑62 and early T‑72A tanks from deep storage, though many require extensive repair.
And Russian manufacturers cannot keep up with the staggering losses of tanks.
Western intelligence suggests Russia can produce 100–125 new MBTs per month, equating to roughly 1,200 tanks annually, focused primarily on the T‑90M.
Fact-checking outlets estimate 250–300 tanks per year (new builds and modernizations combined).
Uralvagonzavod (UVZ) reportedly modernizes ~200 T‑72s plus builds 60–80 new T‑90M tanks annually, yet this rate still falls short by thousands.
Russia is refurbishing and reactivating hundreds of older tanks monthly to offset losses, with about 70% of replacements coming from reserve stock.
However, restoration efforts are slowing sharply, especially since early 2025
IISS contends Russia remains capable of sustaining offensive operations through early 2026, but warns current tactics and attrition levels are unsustainable.
If losses continue at existing rates, Russia may exhaust its reserves by late 2025/early 2026.
Restoring older tanks is costly and unsustainable—many are deteriorated, lacking spares, and cannibalized for parts
How have these shortages impacted Russian military operations?
With tank numbers dwindling, Russian forces have moved away from traditional massed armored advances. Instead, they conduct infantry assaults supported by just a few vehicles or none at all.
Units now frequently use motorcycles, dirt bikes, civilian cars, or even donkeys to resupply forward positions and conduct assaults.
High losses have degraded mechanized offensives. Russian operations are now primarily smaller scale, with slower progress constrained to trench-to-trench engagements.
Analysts note that depletion of armored reserves is significantly hindering Russia’s ability to conduct deep or large-scale offensives.
Tanks, when used, are often deployed singly or in small numbers to avoid detection and drone attack; they're also placed in rear positions for limited, opportunistic supporting fire.
So we see that the war has had a dramatic impact on the number of main battle tanks available to Russian forces.
Russia’s losses of these tanks have far exceeded their ability to replace them.
The net loss of main battle tanks has forced Russia to change its tactics in battle.
