Dauphin County Weather

03/16/2026

Can you spot the cold front??

NOW HERE’S A MAP!

Look at the temperature difference across tonight.

03/16/2026

Despite dealing with rain and storms this afternoon, the “main line” will occur later this evening when our cold front passes through. This is a very strong cold front. Temperatures will be right around 60 degrees 8:00 PM this evening (pictured below), however by midnight, many of us will be around 32 degrees.

As the cold front passes through this evening, you can expect heavy rain, along with damaging winds. Before the precipitation ends, a change to snow is possible.

Below is the latest short range HRRR model valid for 8:00 PM this evening to illustrate just how potent this cold front will be. We can expect a 30 degree temperature drop in a 3 hour span. Super impressive!

03/15/2026

Severe weather threat for Monday:

I do not want to downplay tomorrow’s threat whatsoever, however please avoid using any page as a source for weather that is guaranteeing deaths caused by these storms. It’s a shameful tactic to get clicks and shares which leads them to get paid by Facebook.

With that said, a line of strong to severe storms will push through tomorrow evening. Most of us will see strong winds, could there be a tornado? Sure. But not likely. The only thing that makes this threat a little more unique is it could end as some snow Monday night. No accumulations to be expected.

Below is a look at the latest short range NAM model valid for 7:00 PM Monday.

03/02/2026

**LIGHT WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING**

A weak storm system will bring a light wintry mix to the area tomorrow morning. I anticipate that we start off as a brief period of snow, before changing to sleet and freezing rain and then eventually plain rain.

Timing: Precipitation will begin to fall between 4:00 AM and 5:00 AM, most likely in the form of snow to start. By 7:00 AM, I expected a transition to sleet and freezing rain. Between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM we will all changeover to a plain rainfall.

Accumulations: A coating to one inch of snow is possible. A glaze of ice is likely.

Overall, this is a weak system. However, given this will impact the morning rush tomorrow, please give yourself extra time to get to wherever you need to be.

Below is a look at the latest HRRR future radar valid for 5:00 AM showing the initial burst of snow and then 10:00 AM illustrating the changeover to sleet/freezing rain before eventually plain rainfall.

02/25/2026

What are we tracking next?

The pattern will remain active over the next 7 days. First we are keeping an eye on a system that will likely track to our south tomorrow night into early Friday morning, missing our area for the chance of a light snowfall. However, the American model keeps it far enough north to provide an inch or two of snow to the region. Problem for snow lovers, that is the only model guidance that supports that solution.

Sunday there’s a chance we see snow showers. Not a big deal, maybe a coating to an inch at best.

Monday into Tuesday, this time period needs to be watched for a more potent system. Snow, sleet and even rain are all on the table.

Trailing that system, another system may impact our area on Wednesday. Once again bringing a wintry mix to maybe a plain rain.

Keep it here for the latest!

02/24/2026

A weak clipper system will bring light snow to the area early tomorrow morning. The snow will start between midnight and 2:00 AM and will last until about 8:00 AM.

A coating to one inch is possible, with the best chance for the higher end being in the northern part of our county.

Below is a look at the HRRR model illustrating pretty well where we can expect areas with the best chance for higher accumulations.

First image is the future radar depiction for 6:00 AM Wednesday and the second image is the HRRR snowfall projections.

02/23/2026

It appears most of the area ended up falling within the 2 to 5 inch range of very wet snow which makes for a beautiful scene this morning. If anyone has photos to share, please comment them below!

Our next threat for wintry weather arrives later Thursday into early Friday. As of right now it doesn’t appear to be anything too significant. I will keep you posted!

02/22/2026

4:00 PM Radar Update:

Heavier precipitation rates are beginning to approach the area from the southeast. As the precipitation begins to intensify, this will help cool the column and eventually change any lingering rain to all snow. This transition will take place over the next 2 hours.

As mentioned prior, between 6:00 PM and 1:00 AM, most of our accumulation will occur. Still on track for 2 to 5 inches of snow.

02/22/2026

1:00 PM Sunday Updated Snow Map:

Snow and rain showers continue early this afternoon. Accumulations through 5:00 PM will range from a coating to an inch for most locations. As the sunsets, the snow will pick up in intensity and begin to accumulate quicker. However, as I mentioned this morning, the coastal storm is taking a tracking more east than previously thought, leading to our area seeing less snow totals.

2 to 5 inches of snowfall is my official forecast for our area. As a snow lover, I hate lowering snow totals. But at the end of the day, I don’t forecast based on what I want to happen. I will admit, my “final” call forecast from yesterday was too aggressive, however given the data we were looking at yesterday, some would say that my forecast was actually on the conservative side. Over the last 12+ hours Mother Nature changed her mind and has sent this storm more east, leading to the cut in snow totals.

We can still expect moderate to at times heavy snow with gusty winds between 6:00 PM and 1:00 AM. Snow will begin to lighten and eventually taper off between 3:00 AM and 7:00 AM Monday morning.

02/22/2026

9:30 AM Sunday Morning Update:

Many of us are experiencing some snow and/or snow/rain mixed. This can be expected to continue throughout the afternoon hours. We will transition to all snow after 4:00 PM.

Unfortunately, for snow lovers, the coastal storm has trended a bit east over the last 12 hours. This means we are likely to see less snow from this storm system. My initial 4 to 8 inch snowfall forecast still stands, however I really think many of us will even struggle to see 4 inches if this trend continues. I’ll have an updated post around lunchtime and perhaps an updated forecast map if this trend continues. Please stay tuned!

Side note, please ignore/stay away from pages that decide to post models that only show the most snow. These pages are doing it for clicks, likes and money. They do not care about accuracy.

02/22/2026

FINAL CALL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY’S COASTAL STORM:

No major changes to the forecast map. Still expecting 4 to 8 inches of snow here locally, with significantly heavier accumulations east of the area. Yes, I am pretty confident there will be many areas in New Jersey that receive over 2 feet of snow! Just incredible!

Timing:

Snow, mixed with rain will begin between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM.

Steadier snow, likely mixed with rain at times will fall between 7:00 AM and 3:00 PM. During this period, any snow accumulations will remain on grassy surfaces and only a coating to 2 inches can be expected.

The coastal storm will begin to get cranking by the late afternoon and early evening hours Sunday. Between 4:00 PM and 7:00 PM we can expect a full changeover to snow. An additional coating to 2 inches is likely during this time frame.

Between 7:00 PM Sunday through 4:00 AM Monday Morning, snow will be moderate to heavy at times. Winds will also be on the increase! Most of our snowfall accumulation will occur during this time slot with snowfall rates approaching an inch/per hour at times.

Between 5:00 AM and 8:00 AM I expect the snow to taper off.

Most of us will see 4 to 8 inches of snow. Areas in Eastern Lebanon, Lancaster and York counties may see 8-12” of snow. If the heavier bands can expand west, then perhaps our area can sneak into the 8-12” range. Time will tell. Keep it here!