Hot Springs Weather by Doppler Dean

10/17/2025

I’ll have your full update tomorrow on Saturday’s severe weather potential...plus a look at the Friday Night Football forecast and your weekend weather outlook. Stay tuned!

10/16/2025

New Information on Saturday.

Confidence isn’t locked in just yet, but the setup is coming into focus. A pair of upper-level systems...one diving in from the northern Rockies, the other cruising east across the southern Plains...are expected to join forces, carving out a deep, fast-moving trough as we head into the weekend. This will set the stage for active weather from Texas through the Midwest.

Now, let’s talk ingredients. A rich plume of moisture....mid to upper 60s dewpoints...will already be in place across eastern Texas into Oklahoma Saturday morning, with low 60s stretching all the way into Illinois and Indiana. That means the atmosphere will be primed, and with cooler air aloft moving in, instability will be on the rise.

However, timing is key. Some models are hinting at early thunderstorm development from Oklahoma to Illinois. If storms do fire early, they could limit how unstable the atmosphere gets later in the day. Still, with a strengthening cold front and increasing upper support, any storms that form are likely to organize, bringing a risk for damaging winds.

10/16/2025

Virga

A virga, also called a dry storm, is an observable streak or shaft of precipitation that evaporates or sublimates before reaching the ground.

Took this today near dollar general on Marion Anderson road.

10/16/2025

Sorry, forgot to post this morning. Been a busy day 😆

10/16/2025

Severe weather is on the table this Saturday across the Ark-La-Tex, the Ozarks, and parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

A strong upper-level system will move across the Plains, with a jet streak diving into the Ozarks. Early in the day, scattered storms are expected from eastern Oklahoma into central Missouri. As we head into the afternoon, warmer temps and plenty of Gulf moisture will build moderate instability across Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and southern Missouri.

Storms will likely increase in coverage, and by afternoon, we could see a large, organized cluster of storms — known as an MCS — develop. This system will push east through the evening, bringing a risk for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a few tornadoes.

Forecast models show CAPE values between 1500–2000 J/kg and strong wind shear around 50–55 knots — a recipe for rotating storms. If any supercells stay isolated ahead of the main line, they’ll have the best shot at producing tornadoes. Once the storms merge, the wind threat could take over.

10/15/2025

Friday
Break out the shades, sunshine all day long with highs pushing up near 87 degrees. Winds stay light early then pick up a bit out of the south at 5 to 10 mph by the afternoon. Classic fall warm-up

Friday Night
Mostly clear and calm to kick things off but after 1 AM we’ve got a slight 20 percent chance a few showers or a rogue storm could sneak in. Temps dip to around 66 with a gentle south breeze around 5 mph

Saturday
Here’s where it gets interesting. We start off partly sunny but by the afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely especially after 1 PM. Not a washout but keep that umbrella nearby. Highs cooler near 80 breezy from the south at 5 to 10 mph gusting to 15. Rain chances climb to 70 percent

Saturday Night
More rain in the mix and storms are possible after 1 AM. Still partly cloudy but keep an eye on the skies. Low near 56. Winds shift from southwest to northwest overnight as a cooler air mass rolls in. Rain chance holding at 60 percent

Sunday
A fall beauty. Sunny skies return cooler and crisp with highs near 75. Northwest breeze at 5 to 10 mph gives it that classic autumn feel

Sunday Night
Clear calm and cool perfect for stargazing or cracking a window. Overnight low around 50

10/15/2025

10/15/2025

⚡️Wednesday Update⚡️

A strong storm system will impact the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, and lower Mississippi Valley Saturday. Storms may start early, with more forming by afternoon. Warm, moist air will create instability (fuel for storms), with MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg—a measure of energy available for thunderstorms. Strong wind shear (changing wind speed/direction with height) around 40–50 knots could support organized storms. Expect damaging winds, hail, and a tornado threat, especially if rotating supercells form. If storms form a squall line early, wind damage may become the main threat.

10/14/2025

Arkansas, why do we have a “farfrompoopen road” on “Constipation Ridge”?

No, I’m not kidding. 100% legit.

This is in Montgomery County, Arkansas.

🤣

10/14/2025

Saturday looks stormy across parts of the region. Warm, moist air from the Gulf will move in, pushing dewpoints into the 60s. Some morning storms may limit instability in the Ozarks, but stronger storms are likely to develop by afternoon across the Ark-La-Tex, where instability builds. With enough wind shear in place, a few storms could become severe, bringing damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. Storms may quickly form into a line, making wind damage the main threat. These storms could continue into Saturday night as they move east across the lower Mississippi Valley. Stay weather-aware all day.

10/14/2025

Have a Great day today!!

10/13/2025

Short Version for you short attention span folks.

A strong cold front will move through Arkansas this weekend, bringing widespread rain and storms from Saturday into Sunday. Friday will be warm and humid ahead of the front, then cooler, drier air follows. Timing and severity are still uncertain, so stay tuned for updated forecasts as the weekend approaches.

**Long Version**

A major shift in the weather pattern is expected across Arkansas this weekend as a strong upper-level trough digs into the Central Plains. This system will send a cold front sweeping through the state from northwest to southeast between Saturday and Sunday. Current model guidance, including both the GFS and ECMWF, are in good agreement that widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely during this period. While exact timing, rainfall totals, and severe weather potential are still uncertain, confidence is growing that most of the state will see some much-needed rainfall.

Ahead of the front, Friday will be warm and breezy, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Southerly winds will continue to pull warm, moist air into the region, setting the stage for rain and storms. As the front moves in on Saturday, expect cloud cover to increase along with cooler temperatures—especially by Sunday once the front clears the area. Behind it, a drier and cooler air mass will settle in, bringing more fall-like conditions.

If you have weekend plans, keep an eye on the forecast and be prepared for changing weather. Details will become more refined in the coming days as the system approaches. Stay weather-aware!