SCMWeather

Accurate, easy to understand, no-hype, weather forecasts for southern Minnesota since 2011. I hope you will enjoy SCMWeather!

Follow along to stay updated on the latest weather to impact our corner of the Midwest! Questions are always welcome, so feel free to post them on the wall or in a personal message to me. And also, if you enjoy seeing my posts, be sure you share SCMWx with your family and friends!

06/03/2026

⛈️ Repeated Rounds of Storms Ahead ⛈️

As alluded to last night, we are heading towards a much more active pattern the next several days.

Showers and thunderstorms are developing along a slow-moving, weak cold front out in the central Dakotas. As this front slowly inches eastward, it will interact with an increasingly humid airmass to trigger repeated rounds of storms into Friday.

For those who don't want to listen to my rambling, swipe through the graphics to see the local threats, and estimated arrival times. The rest of you, read on... 👇

🔍 The Setup & Timing
Southerly winds are pumping rich moisture and humidity into the area ahead of the front, fueling additional storm development as the system moves east.

⚠️ What to Expect
As the storms march eastward, they are expected to cluster together into one or more lines rather than remaining scattered.

💨 Wind & Hail: These are our primary local threats. One or more lines of storms will bring the risk of localized strong wind gusts, and hail.

🌪️ Tornado Threat: The highest risk for tornadic activity will remain just west of our local area, where the storms are expected to stay more discrete. However, a brief tornado or two can't be ruled out in the far west as storms arrive.

Brief heavy rain is possible also, but given the antecedent dry conditions, I don't expect flooding will be an issue. As far as timing goes, check the map for the approximate arrival times. As always, storm timing is an estimate and could vary.

While not a major outbreak, still make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings tonight.

06/03/2026

The stagnant, blocking ridge of high pressure that has brought persistent above-average warmth to the area is finally breaking down and shifting east.

As that high pressure slides away, it opens the door for a trough (low pressure) to push in from the west.

📈 The Setup
That purple line on the graphic represents the jet stream. As it dips into the Upper Midwest, it will trigger a southerly flow, sending moisture and humidity into our region.

⛈️ The Result
When that incoming cooler airmass collides with our lingering warm, humid air, things are going to get active. We are looking at several days of showers and thunderstorms blossoming across the area.

⚠️ Severe Weather Potential
While I don't see major severe weather, at least scattered severe storms are possible Wednesday and Thursday, possibly Friday as well.

I will have a more detailed breakdown with timing and specific impact zones over the next several days, so stay tuned!

06/01/2026

☀️ METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS HERE! ☀️

Happy Monday, everyone! After a gloomy start with some rain and thunderstorms earlier today, skies have cleared out nicely. We'll see plenty of sunshine for the rest of our Monday, very fitting for the official kickoff to Meteorological Summer!

Conditions this afternoon will be very fitting for the official kickoff to Meteorological Summer. Under lots of sunshine, highs will climb into the upper 70s and 80s, which is solidly above average for June 1st.

Looking Ahead:
😎 Next few days: The warm, sunny vibes will continue! Expect beautiful, bright, and warm conditions through midweek.
🌧️ Late week: Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts. A pattern shift arrives for the second half of the week, bringing back active, rainy weather.

How are you spending the first day of summer? Any plans for after the work day? Share in the comments! 👇

05/26/2026

Happy Tuesday!

Following the showers and storms last night into this morning, we are rinsing and repeating a very summer-like pattern. Temps have risen into the mid to upper 80s, creating another hot and muggy afternoon.

⛈️ MORE STORMS?
While there is ample fuel for storms, the forcing needed to get them organized is weak today.

I expect "popcorn" style scattered showers and storms to develop late this afternoon and evening. As you can see on the Simulated Future Radar, anything more organized appears to hold off until after midnight, similar to what we saw last night.

That said, while the severe risk is low, any storm that can get organized could produce brief severe hail and damaging winds. This is indicated by the Level 1 risk for wind and hail on the Severe Weather Assessment.

☀️ TOMORROW
Wednesday’s forecast looks almost identical to today. And yesterday, for that matter.

Another hot, muggy day with more scattered "popcorn" style storms in the afternoon.

Keep an eye to the sky if you have outdoor plans this evening!

05/26/2026

I hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend! After a couple days removed from social media (my mental health needed it), I'm back and watching for some storms and continued heat.

⛈️ TONIGHT’S OUTLOOK
Following last night's storms, I'm watching for additional scattered showers and storms this evening and into the overnight hours.

A few storms could be feisty with gusty winds and small hail, but I don't expect anything widespread or long-lasting.

These may linger through mid-morning Tuesday before skies clear out.

🌡️ TUESDAY: THE HEAT IS ON
Once the morning clouds break, I expect temperatures to soar.

Temperatures will be similar to today, albeit a few degrees warmer in eastern areas. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80s area-wide.

For those along the Minnesota River Valley, I expect temps to crack 90°F with low 90s possible similar to today in the west.

☔ RAINFALL & RENEWED STORMS
We will likely see renewed scattered storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

As you can see on the rainfall map, this is a hit or miss type of setup. Most will see 0.25" or less, but a lucky few could pick up 0.5" to 1.0" under the heaviest cores.

Similar to tonight, some gusty winds and small hail are possible tomorrow, but it won't be anything major or long-lasting.

Enjoy the remainder of your holiday evening! I'll take a closer look at Tuesday's afternoon storm potential tomorrow morning.

How did you spend your holiday? Did you get to enjoy the sun or were you dodging those storms last night? Let me know below 👇

05/22/2026

We have light to moderate rain falling across much of the region today, and for some of our driest areas this spring, this is exactly what the doctor ordered.

🌧️ RAINFALL 🌧️
Rain is currently lifting north-northeast and will continue through tonight before tapering off around sunrise tomorrow.

Western areas have seen the most persistent rain where totals of 0.5-1.0" will be common. Some localized spots could see as much as 1.25" by tomorrow morning.

If you are in the far southeast, you'll likely see little to no rain from this one.

🌡️ TEMPERATURES 🌡️
It is a tale of two different afternoons depending on where you are. Under the rain, it's a chilly day with temperatures struggling into the low to mid-50s.

Meanwhile, those in the southeast will see a bit more warmth with temps rising into the upper 60s, possibly reach 70°F for some.

🇺🇸 MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 🇺🇸
I know many of you are looking ahead to the holiday weekend, so here's what I expect:

Skies will clear out tomorrow with a warming trend taking hold. Temps will warm a bit each day, with temps soaring into the mid to upper 80s under mostly sunny skies for Memorial Day.

It’s a sweater day today for some, but for those with plans to dust off the smoker or grill Monday, keep those plans because summer-like weather will be in full-swing by then!

05/18/2026

Following an active Sunday evening along the I-90 corridor, we are looking at another round of storms today. However, thanks to extensive cloud cover across the region, the overall severe weather threat has decreased significantly.

📊 YESTERDAY'S RECAP
Yesterday’s storms were quite feisty across Southern Minnesota, especially along I-90. Numerous reports of damaging winds, with a gust of 82mph just south of the MN/IA border, and large hail to golf ball size were received. There were also a couple tornado reports received.

📍 TODAY'S SETUP
Showers and storms will gradually lift from the south-southwest into the region through this afternoon and overnight.

SEVERE THREAT: While the threat is non-zero, it is much lower than previously anticipated. The best chance for a few scattered severe cells will be in the red hatched area of SE Minnesota.

HAZARDS: Gusty winds and hail are the main concerns. And while SE Minnesota has been a bit of a tornado magnet this spring, the risk for a brief spin-up today is pretty low.

☔ RAINFALL TOTALS
Most of us can expect a general 0.1" to 0.3" of needed rain. However, in the green shaded area, repeated rounds of heavier showers could lead to totals of up to 1" by noon tomorrow.

🕒 TIMING
Activity will increase through the afternoon, with the heaviest rain likely during the evening and overnight hours before tapering off by 10:00AM tomorrow.

Stay dry, everyone! After this, we dry out for a bit with a frost threat returning Tuesday night.

05/17/2026

🚨 SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN 🚨
A cluster of intense thunderstorms has developed a bit earlier than expected in South Dakota and is now pushing into southwest Minnesota.

This will be the primary weather maker this evening.

📍 CURRENT SITUATION
As of 4:45 PM, a line of severe storms is getting ready to cross the state border into Pipestone and Rock counties.

While the line is currently focused south along I-90, I am watching for potential expansion further north as the evening progresses.

⚠️ PRIMARY HAZARDS

🌬️ DAMAGING WINDS: This is the greatest concern, with widespread gusts of 60–80 mph likely as this line sweeps east.

🔮 LARGE HAIL: Significant hail remains possible, especially with any embedded supercells within the cluster of storms.

🌪️ TORNADOES: While the threat is not as high as before, ingredients are still present for tornadoes, particularly in the yellow shaded area on the Tornado Threat map. Any storm that can stay discrete or "kink" within the line will have the potential to produce tornadoes.

🕒 TIMING

The line will sweep east-northeast throughout the evening. At present time, it's moving about 35mph but it wouldn't surprise me to see the forward speed increase with time.

🛡️ ACTION PLAN
We're all Midwesterner's, but heading out into the yard as the storm begins isn't the safest bet. Head indoors and away from windows as the storm approaches your location.

Lastly... Ensure your phone ringer is ON and off "Do Not Disturb" to receive any warnings for significant severe weather.

Stay safe, everyone!

05/17/2026

🌩️ SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY? 🌩️
I am tracking a somewhat complex weather setup for Sunday. While we may see some morning rain, the primary window for severe weather looks to begin in the evening.

🕒 TIMING
Morning: Scattered showers and storms are possible, but this activity should clear out by noon. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Late Afternoon/Evening: Numerous storms are expected to develop after 5-7PM, continuing through about 11pm-1am as they push east.

📍 RISK LEVELS
Virtually the entire region is now under a Level 2 or Level 3 risk for severe weather. Here's a brief summary of what I expect in each area:

Level 3- This is where I expect the greatest risk for all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds.

Level 2- The primary concern will be for large hail and damaging winds, though a tornado or two will be possible as well.

⚠️ THE UNCERTAINTY
The exact mode of these storms, namely how quickly they merge into one or more clusters, will determine which hazards become dominant. The longer they stay discrete, the greater the tornado and large to very large hail threat will be. If they merge quickly, the damaging wind threat will become the primary risk.

🛡️ NEXT UPDATE
I’ll be watching how the atmosphere recovers after the morning rain. Tomorrow afternoon, I will post a fresh assessment to pinpoint the exact target areas for tornadoes, hail, and wind.

Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings tomorrow night! Nighttime severe weather is particularly dangerous because it's harder to see and people are often asleep.

05/11/2026

I've been quiet lately due to a very heavy workload (thankfully it's been quiet weather-wise as well), but I couldn't let Mother's Day zip by without saying hi.

It's not often I share my personal life and photos, but today is a special occasion. Wishing all of you, including my own incredibly mom, a very Happy Mother's Day! I hope your day was relaxing and filled with lots of love! 💐❤️

As far as the weather goes, the theme of the past 10 days will continue. Another cold night is ahead, with frost and freeze warnings across the entire area. For those of you with green-thumbs, bring in those sensitive plants tonight!

Other than that, near average temperatures are expected this week with only light rain chances both Monday and Thursday night.

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