SCMWeather

Accurate, easy to understand, no-hype, weather forecasts for southern Minnesota since 2011. I hope you will enjoy SCMWeather!

Follow along to stay updated on the latest weather to impact our corner of the Midwest! Questions are always welcome, so feel free to post them on the wall or in a personal message to me. And also, if you enjoy seeing my posts, be sure you share SCMWx with your family and friends!

09/08/2026

Showers have moved east of the region early this afternoon, leaving behind a soaking in areas that desperately needed it. The automated rainfall estimates shown here match up pretty well with ground reports, with the highest reports coming in north of the Twin Cities.

⛈️ As a cold front advances across the area later today, a few additional scattered storms could pop up. However, given the ample cloud cover lingering across the area, the probability of additional widespread storms has dropped significantly.

🚨 As a result, the severe weather threat is virtually nil. While I don't expect severe-level storms, an isolated storm or two could get frisky enough to produce some small hail, gusty winds, and brief torrential rainfall.

🌤️ Behind today's cold front, the next couple days will be quiet with lots of sunshine. Active weather looks to return by late in the week into the weekend though, along with noticeably cooler temperatures possible as well.

How much rain ended up in your gauge last night into this morning? Drop your totals in the comments below ⬇

09/07/2026

🔧 Happy Labor Day! 🇺🇸 For those who have today off, what are you doing to enjoy the extended holiday weekend?

I'm sure you don't need me to tell you, but it's a nearly perfect late-summer day with plenty of sunshine and temps in the mid 70s to near 80°F. A couple rounds of storms are on the way though, so get out and enjoy it while you can.

🌩️ Round 1: An area of showers and storms in South Dakota is pushing east, reaching the SD/MN border after 3-4PM and track across the northern two-thirds of the area (near and north of US-212). Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

⛈️ Round 2: A cold front pushing into the region late tonight will spark off a second round of showers and storms, most likely after 11PM-Midnight.

🚨 Storm Risk Breakdown: While a Level 1 Risk covers parts of the area, the overall severe weather threat is low.

Heavy rainfall and very localized flooding is the greatest risk, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail up to quarter size and wind gusts to 60mph.

Model guidance has been all over the place with the placement of the storms tonight, so my map reflects the middle ground. As with any summer storm, expect localized higher and lower amounts than what's shown here.

🔮 Additional showers and storms remain likely tomorrow afternoon. However, we'll need to see how tonight’s storms behave before getting a clearer picture on what Tuesday afternoon brings.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday afternoon, friends!

09/06/2026

Showers and storms have fired up across southwestern areas this morning, but they are lacking strong steering winds and staying fairly stationary in the spots where they develop.

⛈️ Because these storms aren't moving quickly, the main threat today will be localized heavy rainfall. High-res modeling highlights this slow-moving trend, showing isolated pockets picking up 1-2"+ in areas where storms remain stationary much of the day.

🌧️ Additional scattered storms will continue to pop throughout the day, primarily focused west of the MN-15 corridor (west of Fairmont, New Ulm, Hutchinson, and St. Cloud). Some light rain showers may manage to drift east of that line, but coverage will be lower.

🚨 A Level 1 Risk covers western parts of the area today, but any severe threats will be quite localized.

The expectation is that most storms will remain sub-severe, producing pea to nickel-sized hail and wind gusts of 40–50 mph.

However, the strongest storms could briefly pulse up to produce quarter-sized hail and wind gusts around 60 mph. This should be very localized though.

☀️ For areas further east that miss out on the rain, expect another warm, noticeably muggy late-summer day under a canopy of clouds.

Have a great Sunday, friends!

09/05/2026

The extended holiday weekend is going to feel very summer-like with warm, muggy conditions and several chances for showers and storms.

🌤️ The drier air dropping in from the north tonight will be short-lived. Muggy conditions quickly return Saturday and will stick around through Labor Day. Saturday will likely be the warmest of the three days, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s after morning showers clear out.

⛈️ As is typical with summertime setups, there is a lot of model waffling regarding exact storm timing and tracks over the next several days. That leaves us with a less than desirable forecast confidence at this distance, but occasional storms will be the general rule for the unofficial end of summer.

⚠️ While there is a possibility of localized severe weather this weekend, I'm not expecting anything widespread nor intense. As of now, the greatest risk of some hail and gusty winds will be confined to western areas, but I'll be keeping an eye on it.

📊 Over the course of the 3-day weekend, rainfall totals will vary quite a bit across the area. I expect the heaviest totals to be across the west half of the area, though the Monday system could bring heavier totals further east as well. That's something we'll keep an eye on this weekend.

If you have outdoor plans, camping trips, or BBQs lined up over the holiday weekend, keep an umbrella handy and have a backup plan ready to go just in case.

Have a great holiday weekend, friends!

09/04/2026

A thick blanket of low clouds and fog has plagued central parts of the area throughout the morning, putting a temporary pause on daytime heating.

🌫️ Satellite view shows the fog deck slowly burning off, but whoever sees cloud cover linger the longest will end up staying the coolest today. You can see the stark temperature contrast in the current temperatures, holding in the upper 60s to low 70s under the cloud deck, while areas basking in full sun are already making a B-line towards 90°F.

☀️ Afternoon highs will range from the mid 80s in the coolest, most cloud-covered spots up to the mid 90s where skies are completely clear.

Combined with very muggy humidity levels, peak afternoon heat index values will range from the upper 80s to around 100°F across the south.

The first day of the long holiday weekend will feature ample sunshine and continued warm, but slightly less muggy, conditions. That changes for the last half of the weekend though. I'll have a closer look at the Labor Day Weekend forecast later today. Until then, stay cool today, friends!

09/03/2026

Yesterday’s setup played out as expected, with a bowing line of storms making their way across southern areas within the outlined area late last evening. A lead supercell dropped some chonky hail (softball sized near Easton!), while the main line produced damaging wind gusts up to 68 mph around Rochester.

Looking ahead to Thursday, our next weather setup is shaping up to be a tricky and highly conditional one.

🌧️ Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop southwest of the area early Thursday morning and lift northeastward after 6AM. No severe weather is expected, just some good old fashioned rain and thunder.

❓ What happens tomorrow afternoon and evening will heavily depend on how the morning storms behave:

Scenario A: If morning clouds and storms clear out quickly and allow for ample sunshine, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize and set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorm re-development later in the day.

Scenario B: If cloud cover and residual rain linger well into the afternoon, it will keep the atmosphere capped and significantly mute the severe threat.

⛈ A Level 2 risk covers most of the region for Thursday, with the most likely threats being wind and hail. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how the morning storms pan out and will post updates as the setup unfolds!

How did your backyard fare with last night’s storms? Drop your rain reports and any pics (I'm looking at you Rochester metro) in the comments below ⬇

09/02/2026

++6AM, Tuesday 9/2: This post is outdated, severe storms have exited the area ++

Fast-Moving Severe Storm Entering SW Minnesota

A small, high-impact bowing line segment is rapidly pushing into far southwestern Minnesota late this evening.

The primary area of concern thru 2AM is for those near or inside of the red dashed box drawn on the radar image.

💨 Destructive Wind Threat:
It appears a rear-inflow jet has developed with this storm, which is indicative of damaging winds. As this bowing complex moves northeast over the next 30-60 minutes, widespread wind gusts of 60-70mph are likely, with even higher gusts possible. In fact, a wind gust of 81mph was measured with this storm in far NW Iowa!

⚠️ Additional Hazards ⚠️

🌪 Tornadoes: A brief tornado or two is possible along the leading edge of this fast-moving complex.

🧊 Discrete Cells Ahead: Storms firing out ahead of the main cluster could also turn severe, carrying a threat for large hail, gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

Beyond the next hour, exact evolution remains uncertain, but I expect the storm to ride along a warm front draped across southern portions of the area.

📱 Make sure your phone's Wireless Emergency Alerts are ON
⛓️ Secure any loose outdoor furniture
🪟 Stay away from windows once the storm arrives
🔌 Expect power outages
🔦 Have your flashlight handy

09/01/2026

🚨 10:40PM Update: A bowing line of storms has entered southwestern Minnesota. Widespread damaging winds are possible as this progresses northeastward further into the area. See the latest update on our page!

Severe weather is becoming an increasing concern for the southern third of our area tonight.

⛈️ Storms have developed late this afternoon near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, with reports of hail up to baseball size and localized damaging winds. The expectation is for these storms to continue developing northeast toward our area tonight, potentially organizing into one or more clusters.

❓ The big question mark is, how far north do these severe storms build? My gut tells me the greatest severe threat will end up focused near and south of a Pipestone to Rochester line. However, if things line up just right, the severe risk could extend further north into much of the Level 2 risk zone.

⚠️ Hazards Breakdown:

💨 Damaging Winds: This is the primary threat. If a well-developed bowing line segment moves through, significant wind gusts in excess of 70–80 mph are possible.

🧊 Large Hail: If storms manage to stay more discrete, significant hail larger than golf ball size could occur.

🌪 Tornadoes: The tornado threat remains low, but a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially along the leading edge of any developed line segment.

🌧️ Heavy Rainfall: Additional non-severe storms are likely north of the severe storms, with brief torrential downpours possible.

While I don't have great confidence in how tonight will pan out, when faced with an overnight severe threat, it's always best to prepare BEFORE heading to bed:

📱Make sure your phone's Wireless Emergency Alerts are ON
🔊Turn the volume up on your phone
🔋Put fresh batteries in your weather radio
🪟Secure any loose outdoor furniture
🔦Have your flashlight handy

Stay safe tonight, friends! If you do see any severe weather in your backyard, be sure to snap a photo and share it with us!

08/29/2026

Some much needed rainfall is on the way for the area tonight into tomorrow. While I don't see widespread, significant rainfall, we'll take anything we can get at this point!

🌧️ Model guidance has waffled quite a bit on where the heaviest rainfall ends up, but widespread 0.2-0.6" totals are likely with locally higher amounts around an inch possible.

⛈️ A Level 1 risk for severe weather is in place across western areas tonight, but I’m not at all impressed by this setup. While the strongest cells could produce localized gusty winds, small hail, and brief torrential downpours, severe-level wind or hail reports should be isolated at best. In fact, much of the activity will be devoid of thunder and lightning, even.

🕛 Rain should begin within the next 1-2 hours across the southwest before overspreading the rest of the area tonight. Things will clear from southwest to northeast, ending around sunrise in the far southwest to early/mid afternoon further northeast.

Some of us desperately need moisture, so I'll cross my fingers that those who do, see it!🤞🏻

08/28/2026

Let’s see those eclipse photos, friends!

Here’s my craptastic cell phone photo. Who can do better than this?

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