01/04/2023
Look ma, I’m stormchasing.
What month is it again? Jeez.
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01/04/2023
Squall line of storms moving into the NE Florida area later today.
A tornado watch is up for most of North-Central Florida, and all of Southeast Georgia. For now, most of NE Florida’s counties are not included. The line is weakening as the day goes on, so its possible the watch does not get extended.
Regardless, expect the threat of damaging wind gusts and a possible isolated tornado or two through the early evening hours as the line passes.
01/01/2023
The SPC continues to track the threat of severe thunderstorms tomorrow and Tuesday across the Southeast US.
There is an “Enhanced” 3/5 categorical risk issued tomorrow for portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. For now, all modes of severe weather are possible, including discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes. The SPC also has a 10% tornado risk area hatched, which means significant EF-2+ tornadoes are possible.
Tuesday the threat will shift more into Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. For now, it’s unclear how strong the dynamics will be. The tornado threat may be lower, but storms likely will have ample moisture and instability to produce strong winds and hail.
We will follow updates as they come out. Definitely a day to be alert tomorrow.
12/30/2022
January pattern flip brings rain out west, severe weather in the east, and mild temperatures to most.
Apologies for the couple day hiatus. We're back tracking some much warmer weather than the last time we spoke. The arctic blast of Christmas has fully retreated, with a full scale pattern flip underway. Replacing our amplified winter pattern is a much more zonal Pacific Jet pattern that brings mild air from the ocean across the US. This pattern will bring some notable effects to the Lower 48.
First, several "atmospheric river" events are forecast for the Western US. This is a pattern that commonly brings heavy rain to the West Coast, via heavy moisture transport off the Pacific Ocean. A finger of the jet stream will set up that's hundreds of miles long, bringing moist air as far away as Hawaii to states like California and Oregon. Sometimes these are also referred to as "Pineapple Express" events.
The result will be heavy rain and dramatic snowfall for the Sierra Nevada's and Cascades in the next week or two. While it'll make for some unfun weather, the rainfall remains incredibly helpful to the drought stricken Western US. The region remains in a long-term mega-drought. Relief has been coming slowly in the last 6-12 months, but some parts of California, Oregon, Nevada, and Utah remain in Extreme to exceptional drought conditions. The rainfall will be fast enough to cause mudslide and flooding concerns, but will be helpful long term. These events will primarily focus on California, but rainfall will extend into Nevada and the 4 corners states over the next 7+ days.
Out east, severe weather is making a comeback in the forecast. There's a low risk of severe storms tonight and tomorrow across the Southeast US as a system moves through.
However, looking at next week, a more robust and dynamic system will drop into the Gulf Coast region, and could be a potent severe weather maker. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a 30% risk area for parts of Arkansas and Louisiana on Monday (1/2). A 30% this far out typically means an active day, and all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes, remain possible. The threat will shift eastward on 1/3, and could include some of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. We'll have more as the event gets closer.
12/27/2022
Severe weather threats, a New Year's Blowtorch, and when is the cold coming back?
Across the US today, we begin a nice thaw after a record setting cold spell for Christmas time. The Arctic airmass responsible for massive impacts over the last few days is starting to modify as warmer air begins to return. Unfortunately, in the thaw comes the grim realization that at least 63 people were killed over the weekend in the cold, according to CNBC. Many people were found in their cars, or had cardiac events shoveling snow. More work continues in places like Buffalo, where historic blizzard conditions have left the city still crippled today. It's inexcusable with the forecast improvements we have. We'll keep you updated on the story.
As we look ahead, a few weather headlines loom. First up is the threat of severe weather returning. The atmosphere will warm and moisture will replace the dry arctic air through this week. The first of two troughs will dig into the Central US on Thursday and Friday this week. Moisture return and severe potential looks limited, but worth monitoring. Next week, another trough may find warmer air and more moisture to work with, just after New Years, which may prompt a severe threat across the Ozarks, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast US.
Temperature wise, the CPC forecasts well above normal temperatures for everyone around and East of the Plains for the next two weeks. A more zonal flow to the jet stream will keep warmer air ridged over the Central and Eastern US, with a trough more over the Western US. Most of the frigid air will be locked up north. These resets are common after big cold snaps.
So, when is that cold coming back?
According to some of our ensemble forecasts, it looks like Mid to Late January could be another cold spell. Cold air will begin to bottle back up over Siberia. As the Pacific Jet retracts, we'll see a more +PNA look. That means blocking over Greenland, a trough signal over the Eastern US, and a Western Ridge that pushes that cold air southward. For now, no reason to think it would be as extreme as what we just saw, but that's overall when the real winter-like weather likely returns.
12/26/2022
Pretty amazing how the front lined up perfectly with Christmas.
2nd to 3rd coldest on record across the area. One more solid freeze tonight and then we’ll rebound through the week.
No more big cold for awhile after down here.
12/25/2022
Merry Christmas everyone!
Across the US this morning, our arctic outbreak is still quite evident on GOES 16 satellite imagery. Snowpack from a historic blizzard over the great lake contrasts the limited cloud cover. Cloud streets extend from Maine, down to Texas along the ocean, indictive of arctic air moving over warmer water.
It'll be one of the colder Christmas days on record for much of the Southeast US. Freezing temperatures plunged clear through Texas, and even deep into Florida this morning. Highs will pull a few degrees warmer than yesterday for most, but overall still far below normal and near record cold for some.
Through this week, a gradual warmup is expected. The arctic air will modify, and the pattern that displaced it is collapsing. The result will be a much more mild and stormy pattern as we look towards New Year's. The Climate Prediction Center virtually guarantees above normal temperatures for most of the Central and Eastern US into Early January.
Beyond that, medium range forecasts expect the Polar Vortex to ramp up significantly. This means all the coldest air will stay lodged comfortably around the North Pole. Much of January will likely be warm, with some, but overall limited cold spells.
Could this winter blast be the coldest air of the rest of the winter? Not likely. I would expect a cold end to January and start of February possibly. Usually these kinda events aren't one off, but the atmosphere usually takes some time to reset and recharge.
Bottom line? Cold to cool a few more days, then a warmup for the foreseeable future.
12/24/2022
If cold was a picture, the below GOES-16 Satellite True Color Image would be that. That's absolutely text book cold.
Across the US, an arctic airmass has settled in, straight from Siberia, in the wake of a record setting blizzard across the Northern US. Feet of snow, white out conditions and high winds crippled travel over the last 48 hours.
The storm system itself has wrapped up into Canada, but in it's wake is some of the coldest weather we've seen in some time. Many folks across the Gulf Coast, and Southeast US are setting daily record low temperatures. For many, especially in the South, the event is one of the top 5 coldest Christmas periods on record.
The cold sticks around for a few days. By the end of this coming week, the pattern will have massively flipped. The blocking patterns that set up this blast will move on, and we'll have a much more mild pattern to start January. Most of the country can expect above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in the New Year window and into January. Often times after intense cold snaps like this, there's a reset in the atmosphere and it takes awhile for more cold to show up.
It's not likely our last of the season, historically these events aren't one and done. But after this week, it'll turn nicer for awhile.
12/24/2022
Current temperature and wind chills this morning.
Pretty uh, cold.
Expect a slow warm up today. Temps will make it into the low 40s for most, but winds will stay brisk and “feels like” temps won’t come out of the 30s.
An even colder night is expected tonight. Winds will relax which helps radiational cooling. Low temps Christmas morning will likely be in the low 20s.
One of the coldest Christmases on record here. Stay warm!
12/23/2022
R A W S A L E R T S on Twitter
https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1606362859780202496
Apparently a serious pileup has occurred in Ohio. Dozens of cars are reportedly involved, some accounts are saying a mass causality type event.
It's really unfortunate that so many people often have no choice but to be out on the roads in extreme weather events like this. It's easy to say "why was anyone on the road, we've know about this for a week", but that often glosses over how real life actually works.
Fact is, millions of people had to go to work today regardless. Some for jobs that could be done at home. But many were likely the types that keep the world moving. Doctors, nurses, EMS, public works, ect. It's never as simple as "everyone just stay home".
But inevitably, in zero visibility conditions like this, these events can happen. Hopefully it's not as bad as reported but, doesn't look good, and I'm sure Ohio isn't the only example of this today.
“🚨: Mass Casualty Incident’ declared following pileup on Interstate 75 in Ohio 📌 l Multiple emergency crews are responding too a very serious accident is occurring on I-75N. With Mass Casualty Incident declared reports of over 100+ vehicles are piled up”
12/23/2022
Here it comes! How cold is it going to get for NE Florida? Glad you asked.
An arctic present from Santa is on our doorstep this morning friends. GOES 16 satellite imagery shows a cold front surging into Central Florida late this morning, with clear skies and cold air behind it. The vertical cloud streets in the Gulf of Mexico are a dead giveaway of an approaching winter airmass, and this one's for the books.
As of about 11am local time today, temperatures are just short of 60°F for most. The sun is coming out, but temperatures will not be responding in kind. Through the rest of the day, winds will pick up, gusting to near 30mph at times, while temps fall into the afternoon. By sunset, we can expect temps to have already fallen into the low 40s.
Tonight: One of the coldest nights in some time awaits. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 20s. Given the winds will not be calm, wind chill values will be as low as 10°F to 15°F by daybreak. That's not a typo.
Christmas Eve: We wake up in the aforementioned 20s. A high temperature awaits in the low 40s for the day, with abundant sunshine and a brisk northerly wind. Given that combo, wind chill values will remain near freezing all day. It's going to be bitterly cold by our standards. Overnight into Christmas morning, an even colder night is possible. With calmer winds and clear skies, temps may fall even closer to the 20 degree mark. A few inland locations may scrape the upper teens. The "feels like" will once again be near 15 degrees.
Christmas Day: Another day in the 40s is forecast, once again under clear sunny skies. Winds will relax Christmas day, so it won't be as brutally cold, but still very much below normal for us. Another freeze is expected that night, once again into the mid to upper 20s.
We'll rebound through next week, but freezes are possible until at least Tuesday night.
Remember to protect your P's: Plants, Pets and Pipes. Most small plants are going to have to be inside to live, covering them up isn't going to be enough in this case. Please don't leave animals chained up in your yard in this weather. This cold is downright deadly. Finally, I would run a slight drip of water on an external faucet outside, and inside on one or two sinks. A good rule is to run a sink or tub faucet opposite of where your water supply goes into your house. You don't need much, just enough to keep water moving.
Also please remember to practice space heater safety. Every year homes are lost to space heater fires. They're dangerous if not used carefully.
Stay warm friends, this will be the 3rd coldest Christmas on record in NE Florida since people lived here.
And don't worry, we'll be back in shorts and flip flops by New Years.
12/22/2022
Unreal cold across the Northern Plains associated with this airmass.
A station in Montana recorded a wind chill of -74°F last night at 3:22am local time.
Is that a US record? Nope, and not too close either surprisingly.
The all time continental US record wind chill was observed at the Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire on January 16th 2004. The observed temperature of -41.8°F combined with a wind of 87.4 mph, to produce a wind chill value of -102.6°F. That observation was taken at about 6,288 feet above sea level though.
Only two other times has a wind chill value near 100 or below been recored. The 2nd time was in February 2013 at Howard Pass Alaska, estimated between -99.8°F and -105°F, depending on correction for elevation.
The only other time came back in January of 1989, at McGrath Alaska, when the wind chill dropped right to -100°F. Interestingly enough in this case, the wind speed was only 7mph, combined with an air temperature at the time of -72°F.
As a side note, that cold blast in late January of '89 lead to an even colder outbreak in early February that pushed a historic cold snap all the way into Mexico City. That year would then see today's referenced December of '89 cold wave that next winter. Apparently 1989 wasn't the warmest time.
WOW!
Elk Park, north of Butte along I-15, recorded a wind chill value of -74° last night at 3:22 AM.
MORE: NBCMontana.com/weather
12/22/2022
On This Day in Weather History: The December 1989 Cold Wave. Aka: The Year it Snowed in Florida.
Unfortunately this year we're watching a similar event to what happened just before Christmas, on this day 33 years ago.
From December 22nd to 25th 1989, arctic air rushed across the Eastern 2/3rds of the US, crushing all time cold records, sending a snowstorm for the ages up the East Coast, and blasting Florida with sub-freezing temps clear to Miami.
A likely displacement of the Polar Vortex in Mid December of 1989 unleashed a series of cold fronts leading up to Christmas. On Dec 22nd, the most intense front of them moved into the Great Plains. A massive 1055mb high pressure system sprawled through the region, dropping temperatures down to -44°F in Nebraska, and also setting dozens to hundreds of all-time record lows. As the arctic air slipped southward into the Southeast US, a low pressure system spun up along the Gulf Coast, moving through Florida and up the East Coast. This low pressure mixed moist ocean air with record cold air, resulting in a record snowstorm.
Here in Jacksonville, Dec 22nd 1989 was very cold, about 15-20 degrees below average with a high of just 44 and increasing clouds. On the 23rd, the arctic air invaded, mixing with the easterly winds of the low. Measurable snow, sleet, and freezing rain would fall in this sub-tropical climate for just the 3rd time since 1900. Totals varied, but generally were around 1-2 inches, along with freezing rain and sleet. Live Oak and Mayport recorded 3 inches, which seemed to be the highest totals. Temperatures the night of the 23rd crashed into the low 20s, and barely broke above freezing on Christmas Eve the next day. This kept most of the snow around, and Christmas Day 1989 was Northern Florida's first, and only, "white Christmas" on record.
Snow flurries would go on to be reported down to Tampa and Daytona Beach. The subsequent freeze on Christmas Eve, into Christmas morning, showed shocking temperatures. 8°F north of Gainesville (High Springs), 11°F in Pensacola, 16°F in Jacksonville, 22°F in Orlando, 24°F in the Everglades, and 30°F in Miami. Every Florida county was declared a disaster area, as the state and residents are ill equipped to handle extreme cold, much like New England is not equipped for extreme heat. The Agriculture industry was shattered in Florida, including 30% losses of the Citrus Crop. This freeze, to go along with 1985's, combined to devastate generational farms, putting many out of business for good. This solidified the migration of the citrus crop further south, where it remains today.
Also, the same event spawned the Southeast's greatest coastal snow storm on record. A powerful low pressure would develop on the front, and the low would move up the east coast, dumping tremendous amounts of snow. Several counties inland in Georgia received 3-5 inches, coastal South Carolina received 8 inches to over a foot near the NC border. The peak of the event was around Wilmington, NC, where an astounding 17.5 inches of snow fell. A few towns nearby recorded almost two feet. Charleston SC set their all time lowest "high" temperature, at just 20°F during the day. Savannah, GA also set their coldest daily high in the 20th century.
12/22/2022
Current satellite and temperature map.
Guess it's not hard to find the arctic front today.
One of the most prolific cold blasts of the last 30+ years invades the US today. Sets the stage for one of the coldest Christmas periods on record.
Stay safe traveling today and tomorrow friends. That low pressure is just getting cranking today. It'll be roaring tomorrow over the Great Lakes and Eastern US. Travel is going to be downright dangerous in some areas. Wind chills are going to be brutal. Hard freezes will extend deep into Texas and Florida. Everyone has something to deal with here, unless you live in California or Arizona lol.
We'll check in on the goings on, and remember "the day it snowed" in Florida, OTD in 1989 later on.
12/22/2022
As we watch an exceptional Arctic Blast move out of the Upper Plains tonight, it's worth mentioning that today is also the 2022 Winter Solstice!
Today marks the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere and the start of astronomical winter. The winter solstice marks the point where Earth has tilted furthest away from the Sun in the Northern Hemisphere, and receives the lowest amount of radiation. From now until June we'll begin to add a minute or so of daylight each day, until the Summer Solstice.
Wondering why the solstice marks the start of winter, not the peak? That's because the Earth's atmosphere lags behind in terms of heating and cooling. This half of the Earth is still cooling, and will for several more weeks before the increase in solar energy begins to turn the tide. Imagine trying to heat or cool a bowl of soup with a hairdryer. It'll work, but it'll take some time, and the effect doesn't happen right away. Typically, Mid January is the coldest time of the year for the Lower 48, but full on arctic blasts can occur all the way into March.
Of note too, Meteorologists group seasons into 3 month intervals to better align with how the atmosphere actually responds to the solar changes. Winter runs December through February, roughly 3 weeks behind the astronomical counts.
Happy start of winter, cause it's sure as hell about to feel like it.
12/21/2022
Some perspective on the incoming cold for NE Florida on Christmas.
This blast likely falls just short of 83 and 89, but it’ll top most other notable cold Christmas periods.
1983 was the coldest December in the lower 48 on record I believe.
1989 was the infamous “it snowed in Jacksonville” year, just a day before Christmas Eve.
Kinda puts into focus how outrageous this arctic blast is.
An incoming cold front 🌬️ will be bring several nights of cold temperatures❄️over this holiday weekend. With temperature lows expected to dip into the low to mid 20s across NE Florida, how will Christmas 2022 compare to Christmases past? 🎄
12/20/2022
The cold air associated with this arctic blast is truly astonishing.
It's easily the coldest blast since the 1989 outbreak that brought snow all the way to Northern Florida. It's likely in the top couple all time. There's other factors like duration that go into the top cold snaps of all time. This one won't be particularly long. But intensity wise it's among the top ones ever.
-70°F wind chills are downright preposterous. That's not model output. That's a real forecast from the Cheyenne, WY NWS.
Whew.
12/20/2022
Still allot of coverage to come regarding our pre-Christmas storm system.
But looking beyond that, virtually the entire Lower 48 will see a snap back to warmer weather by New Year's.
This is fairly typical in the wake of Arctic outbreaks. Sometimes they do persist, but often once that cold air is blasted out, the atmosphere has to sort of "recharge" in a sense. The overall long-wave pattern also usually flips and moves on, leaving a typically warmer spell behind.
In this case, a fairly robust long wave ridge will build over the US as we work through the week after Christmas. Most of the super cold air will retreat back to the north pole and stay up for a little while. The GFS shows the next chance for a strong cold blast to come after New Years, maybe the first week of January.
We'll have the latest on the big system today, including a look at how this all shakes out for Northeast Florida in detail.
12/19/2022
As we continue to track the pre-Christmas storm system moving in, it's really hard to understate what a travel nightmare this is going to be.
By the morning of the 23rd, you're going to have an extremely powerful storm system centered over the Midwestern US. Arctic air is going to be surging into much of the Eastern US, from the Rockies to the East coast in this period. This event is going to be exceptional on many fronts, and will cripple travel for millions of folks moving around for Christmas.
Flights are going to have to contend with a host of issues, not only on the ground due to visibility and icy runways, but in the air as well. The upper-level wind field accompanying this storm system is brutal. A belt of winds from Montana, down to Florida, and back up the coast will cause turbulence and stiff headwinds if you're traveling any component of westward Friday. Don't expect a clean flight anywhere besides California.
While snowfall totals aren't outrageously high anywhere in particular, many states are going to get a solid couple inches of snow. This will combine with high winds to create white out, blizzard conditions.
Flash freezing is also a concern further south. Basically the Tennessee Valley southward isn't going to see snow, but there's many folks who may get rain as the initial front comes in. That will be followed by a dramatic temperature drop. Many locations are going to drop from 40-50 degrees down into the 20s to teens in a matter of hours. This arctic air is downright frigid, and will be moving in a hurry. Icy roadways are going to make travel dangerous, even well away from where it's snowing Thursday and Friday night.
Please exercise considerable caution and foresight if you're going somewhere for Christmas. Friday is not going to be a good day to be in the air, or in a car, pretty much anywhere east of the Rockies. If you need to travel, your best bet is either before Thursday night, or on Saturday. East coasters can probably get away with Thursday, but much further west you'll already be in the suck.
Stay safe folks! We'll have more on the big Christmas storm this week as details come in!
12/17/2022
An early look at Christmas spells blizzard like conditions and the coldest Christmas in years for most of the lower 48.
Across the US today, seasonably cool conditions dominate, after a couple days of wild weather this week across the Southeast US. As we look ahead into next week, it appears we're going to have a hell of a storm on our hands that may seriously impact pre-Christmas travel plans.
Later next week, a powerful storm system, accompanied by a full on arctic airmass, will pour out of Western Canada, into the Rockies, and surge across the US just before Christmas Weekend. This system will bring snow and rain to most of the US along and east of the Plains.
For now, the exact timing and track of the system remains to be seen. However, trends have shifted away from a coastal storm system, to a track more into the Central/Eastern US. This would shift the heaviest snow corridor away from the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions, back west to the Great Lakes and Midwest. The timing has also shifted back some. It now appears the heaviest weather will occur later on the 22nd, through much of the 23rd, and into early Christmas Eve, before things quiet down.
Heavy snow and blizzard conditions are possible from the Upper Mid-west, across the Great Lakes, and even into parts of the Appalachians. Further south, bitterly cold air will dive unusually far south, even to the Gulf Coast and Northern Florida. Virtually the entire US, save the West Coast states, will be well, to exceptionally below average for this time of year. This storm system will seriously hamper travel plans. I would pay close attention to flights, and plan for delays, or outright cancellations. If you want to be somewhere, I'd be there a few days earlier than expected, unless you're going to like, Miami or Los Angeles.
Here in NE Florida, we're going to see the front show up around Friday next week. Highs Christmas eve may not leave the 40s, and a widespread, hard freeze will be expected Friday night, Christmas Eve, and possibly the night after Christmas Day. For now, the early idea is a dry, cold Christmas weekend. A little warmer Christmas Day than eve, but you'll definitely be able to wear your sweaters.
We'll track this event closely, but we're now in the window where it's likely happening, just gotta figure out the details.
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Videos
Tropical Update Video September 22nd Tonight we continue to track Major Hurricane Fiona, and Invest 98L as our big storylines. For this evening and maybe beyond, I'm going to split these videos into short and longer versions. I understand most people aren't going to sit through a 15 minute video. So this one is 5 minutes roughly, it's the bare bones latest on Fiona and 98L. If you want the longer version, it'll be up in a little while. Fiona: Fiona remains a very powerful Category Four Hurricane tonight, passing close enough to Bermuda for significant impacts. Hurricane Warnings remain up for the tiny island, which will be hit hard tonight and early tomorrow. Fiona will then merge with an upper weather system and become a historically strong extra-tropical storm, or a hurricane-winter storm hybrid. A generationally strong storm is forecast for Eastern Canada. Every preparation should be made tonight; it's hard to overstate how bad Fiona is going to be this weekend there. Invest 98L: Our system is showing it's first signs of life tonight, but has some work to do to become a bonafide tropical system. Computer models continue to flip flop on potential solutions. I'd say tonight, the safest bet is a landfall somewhere in Western Florida in the middle of next week. But saying much more than that is hard right now. We simply have to get the system organized more to make a little better call. A wide range of outcomes still in play. Best to have a plan, be prepared, and closely watch for updates this weekend. Things will fall into place quickly, it's just a little too early.
Tropical Update September 21st Tonight we continue to track Hurricane Fiona and Invest 98L as your primary storms. We also have Tropical Storm Gaston active, as well as two areas of interest in the Atlantic basin, but none of those 3 will have any impact for the Eastern US. Hurricane Fiona: Fiona remains a powerful Major Hurricane tonight. At last check she was a Category Four storm with 130mph winds. The storm may be expanding some, which lowers the max winds but increases the size. She'll move northward tonight and tomorrow, grazing past Bermuda on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are up, as well as Hurricane Watches. Sustained hurricane force winds aren't too likely, but some strong gusts and sustained TS force winds are as she passes. Fiona will slam Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as an outrageously strong extra-tropical storm Saturday. Folks there should brace for a hell of an impact, once in a generation type storm event. Invest 98L is not any better organized than yesterday. The wave is still dealing with dry air and outflow from Fiona. It's likely going to need a few more days to develop, as it travels NW into the Caribbean. Development window probably opens between Thursday night and Friday night. The future of 98L remains very questionable. Computer models still doom-cast the system to be a big impact somewhere between Louisiana and Florida. It's certainly possible, but there's allot of time between now and then. We don't do hype around here, we track as it comes. In the short term, we'll track how fast 98L develops, and how far north it pulls. In the medium term, we'll track how the Western Caribbean looks this weekend, in regards to favorability for intensification. In the long term, we'll track how the trough over the Eastern US coaxing 98L northward next week looks, and how it shapes up. There's allot to go here, don't let a computer model panic you. Yeah, 98L has some concerning signs. It also may turn out to be nothing at all. It's too earl
Tropical Update Video September 20th Tonight we track Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, and Invest 98L. Hurricane Fiona is intensifying this evening. Satellite data shows Fiona building a more robust Central Dense Overcast around her eye. She's pulling away from the Turks and Caicos, and should be running into Category Four intensity as she moves north tomorrow. Bermuda can expect a very close pass with Fiona on Friday. Tropical Storm Watches are up, those could become Hurricane Watches or warnings if she gets closer. Expect a rough ride Friday. Fiona will slam Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as an exceptionally powerful hurricane force storm Saturday as it transitions into an extra-tropical winter-type storm. Significant impacts are expected up there. Elsewhere Tropical Storm Gaston looks really impressive for no apparent reason. Storm just kinda went for it lol. Thankfully it's far away, no big deal. Azores could get some impacts later this weekend. Finally, Invest 98L continues to be the talk of the town. Our tropical wave is being doom-cast by the GFS and EURO as a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week. For now, I caution a bit of restraint until we see some stuff play out. Anytime you have an undeveloped system, you have a ton of forecast uncertainty until things start falling into place. Yes, the Caribbean looks primed for any storm moving through this weekend. Yes, there's a pattern in place that *could* take a storm into the Eastern Gulf. Yes, it's of some concern. But, no, it's not time to run for the hills, and no we don't know if any of that is going to play out yet. Leave the panic for people who don't know better. I'd say 98L demands a healthy amount of respect, but it's not a layup to just slam it into Florida next week and call it a day. We'll track as it comes. Have a plan, be ready to execute that plan, but chill for now.
Tropical Update Video September 19th Wanted to push an evening video. Promised you guys I'd put something out. I know it's very late, but best I could do lol. Tonight's video is split about 50/50 between Fiona, and a new possible threat in the Central Atlantic down the line. This evening Fiona is becoming an impressive hurricane as she pulls away from The Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Recon data and satellite imagery show Fiona is quickly organizing into a Major Hurricane, and likely will be one by tomorrow morning. The structure of the storm is well put together, sporting a full eye, central-dense overcast expansion, and vertical hot towers on the western side. Fiona will lash the Turks and Caicos tonight and tomorrow, where Hurricane warnings remain up. She'll intensify, likely into Category Four strength later this week, passing close to Bermuda. Too early to say how close, but Bermuda should be preparing for Major Hurricane impacts for now. This weekend Fiona will become a powerful extra-tropical cyclone and likely will slam Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Elsewhere, we're tracking a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic basin. The wave has little shot to develop in the next few days. It's too low latitude and has to get out from under Fiona's upper outflow. However, by this weekend, the wave should get into the Central/Western Caribbean, where conditions look far better for development. We could very well have a developing storm by that point. Early signs are it could be in an exceptionally favorable setup for quick intensification. Beyond that, the pattern may lend to the system trying to recurve up into the Gulf, which could mean US impacts. However, it's far too early to get that far ahead of ourselves. Just because our computer models show it for one run, doesn't mean it's happening. All we know for now is a wave is likely to develop down the road, and it could be an issue to watch. No reason to hype or panic right now. We'll be tracking F
Tropical Update Video September 17th Today we track Tropical Storm Fiona in the Eastern Caribbean as your main feature. We also have Tropical Storm Lester landfalling in Southern Mexico, and Super Typhoon Nanmadol taking aim at Japan's mainland. In the Atlantic: Tropical Storm Fiona is gradually organizing today, and is now expected to be a Hurricane on approach to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic tonight and Sunday. Hurricane Warnings have been issued for all of Puerto Rico. Hurricane Watches are up for some of the Virgin Islands, and the East coast of the Dominican Republic. Fiona is not terribly well organized yet, but has markedly improved over the last 24 or so hours. Wind shear affecting the storm has relaxed, and is forecast to remain fairly light over the next few days. Given the structural improvements, and the warm waters beneath Fiona, it's very possible Fiona becomes a hurricane tonight, and could intensify further before moving into PR and DR. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding is likely in Puerto Rico, along with hurricane force winds; it will be a significant blow to the island. The future of Fiona is slowly coming into focus. Confidence has increased that Fiona will stay off-shore of the US mainland. However, that's not 100% certain yet. The slower forward speed and strengthening of Fiona lean towards the "hook to sea" solution. We still have to monitor how she navigates the islands though. If she winds up moving too slow or too far west, she could "miss the bus" to get out of town, and wander by the Bahamas, complicating future forecasts. I'd say it looks good for now, but we're not 100% out of the woods. Folks along the US east coast, from Florida to New England should keep watching. In the Pacific: Tropical Storm Lester makes landfall today along Southern Mexico. Some gusty winds and rainfall expected, pretty minimal impact overall. Out west, Super Typhoon Nanmadol is bearing down on Japan, set to make landfall late Sunday into M
Tropical Update Video September 16th This morning we track Tropical Storm Fiona as your main player in the Atlantic basin. Tropical Storm Lester is active in the Eastern Pacific, and Typhoon Nanmadol is active in the Western Pacific. In the Atlantic: All eyes on Fiona again this morning. The storm is packing winds near 50mph, moving westward at 14mph. TS Watches and Warnings remain up for most of the Northern Caribbean Islands, including Puerto Rico. Fiona has not changed much since last night. The storm remains heavily sheared, with a nearly totally exposed circulation center, and thunderstorm activity blown off to the east. However, it appears the shear may relax just a little today. Fiona is already showing a sign or two that she may try to intensify a little today, we'll see. The future of Fiona remains hard to predict, since she will very likely interact with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Historically, storms that do so have wildly varying outcomes. The islands can rip some storms apart, while leaving others alone, all depending how they interact with them. Track and intensity often go hand in hand, Fiona will be no exception. Therefore, it's simply too early to care too much about computer model runs. She won't be out of the Caribbean until after the weekend, so best to just relax and track it as it comes. Everyone on the Eastern Seaboard should follow Fiona's progress for now, nobody's "out of the woods" yet. But, nobody should worry yet either. Elsewhere the Atlantic is mostly quiet, a few junk areas to watch but nothing serious. In the Pacific: Tropical Storm Lester will bring heavy rain to Southern Mexico over the weekend in the Eastern Pacific basin. Another storm likely forms off-shore but is fish sticks. Out west, Typhoon Nanmadol is becoming a unit. The system is intensifying, likely to near Cat 5 intensity, before approaching Japan later this weekend. Namadol is forecast to weaken some, but will be a large, powerful typhoon as it crosses t
Tropical Update Video September 15th Today we track Tropical Storm Fiona as your main interest today. We're also following 3 systems in the Pacific basin. Before we get into this, welcome to the new followers! Appreciate you guys being here, hope you enjoy the content! ------------------ Tropical Storm Fiona packs winds of 50mph today, and is moving to the west at 14mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for some of the US and British Virgin Islands, more watches will become warnings through tonight. Fiona remains a sheared tropical cyclone today. The low level center is almost completely exposed. An upper trough continues to batter the system, keeping the thunderstorms blown off to the east side and not allowing for intensification. Confidence is high that Fiona will remain on this westerly track for the next few days, where limited intensification is expected thanks to that trough. Over the weekend, Fiona will impact the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and later in the weekend Hispaniola. Her exact intensity, and forward speed, will matter significantly for her future track. We expect Fiona to begin to turn northward, out of Caribbean, sometime around Sunday. However, that turn is fuzzy, since it's hard to know how strong Fiona will be, and where she will be. Her interaction with the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will also affect her intensity. Many solutions remain on the table, from a weaker storm drifting into the Bahamas, to a stronger storm re-curving completely to sea. There's also some in the middle, that put anyone from Florida to Maine on notice for possible impacts. Bottom line, it's too early to know if Fiona will threaten the US East Coast or not. Too early to panic or worry, but also too early to let your guard down. We'll know in a couple days how it might shake out. Elsewhere, the basin is mostly quiet, just one wave coming off Africa worth tracking the next few days. In the Pacific: The NHC monitors two Tropical systems
Tropical Update Video September 8th Today we track Hurricane Earl in the Atlantic, Hurricane Kay in the Eastern Pacific, and Tropical Storm Mufia in the Western Pacific, as your active storms. In the Atlantic: Hurricane Danielle was declared post-tropical this morning, leaving Earl as the lone active system. Earl is becoming an impressive hurricane this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows Earl organizing a better eye structure, likely poised to intensify this evening. Earl should become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) as it passes about 75 miles Southeast of Bermuda. Tropical Storm conditions are likely on the island, but they're pretty prepared for such. Earl will move northward, becoming post-tropical by Sunday. Behind Earl, Invest 95L may have just missed it's window to develop. The Atlantic basin remains generally hostile despite Earl's achievements. The little invest almost got to TS status, but shear blew all the thunderstorms away, and it has not recovered so far. By the weekend, it'll be too late, so it's gotta rebound soon if it wants a name. Behind 95, another wave moves off Africa, but faces the same grim road ahead that 95L is dealing with. No significant threats for the Eastern US loom for awhile. We'll watch some bubbly stuff in the Gulf for surprises, but otherwise we're good for now. In the Pacific: Hurricane Kay continues to work up the Baja Peninsula. Kay may not be a hurricane by this point though. Aircraft and satellite data indicate the large storm has weakened quickly over cool waters and partial land interaction. However, Kay has allot of reach, sending TS force winds and heavy rain well away from the center. Southern California will feel her effects in the form of rainfall over the next few days, picking up several inches, and she'll break a serious heat wave over the area. Mostly good news, but flooding will be a concern. Kay will turn away from the coast and weaken off-shore over the weekend. Finally, TS Mufia is poised to become a Typh
Tropical Update Video August 31st Today we track Super Typhoon Hinnamnor and TD 13 in the Western Pacific as your active storms. We also track 3 areas of interest in the Atlantic basin. In the Atlantic: The National Hurricane Center has 3 spots on it's radar today. None are a substantial threat to the US for now. 1. Invest 91L, our main player of the last few days, continues to struggle to organize. Some signs show it's working on that, but overall the system is having a hard time. It is still expected to become a named storm this weekend as it moves up north of the Antilles, east of the Bahamas. For now, most forecast consensus favors a turn back out to sea, well before any threat to the Eastern US. Besides the caveat we have to be careful with undeveloped storm forecasting, I'd tend to agree and wouldn't worry for now. Worth keeping an eye on if something begins to change. 2. Invest 93L is a sub-tropical system in the North Atlantic, along an old frontal boundary. This system is very likely to develop, and could even be named as early as late tonight. We'll see if we finish August without a named storm, something we've only done twice since 1950. Regardless, 93L is moving away from the US, and will not threaten us at all. Europe might wanna watch it next week though. 3. Invest 92L is a broad wave off Africa today. It's messy, slow, and not coming across the pond so, no big deal. Still could steal a name off the list, but isn't an issue for us. In the Pacific: Super Typhoon Hinnamnor made waves yesterday, becoming the first Category Five in any basin this year, and the strongest system of the season so far in any basin. Today, it's weakened a little bit, back to Category Four, but remains a powerful Super Typhoon. Hinnamnor will also combine with TD 13 in a few days, as it stalls near Japan's southern islands. Days of heavy rain, and high winds are expected for islands such as Miyako and Yaeyama. Eventually, Hinnamnor will move north, and could threaten
Tropical Update Video August 30th Today we track Super Typhoon Hinnamnor in the Western Pacific as your only active storm globally. In the Atlantic: We're following two disturbances today along with the NHC. The first is Invest 91L, the main subject of the last few days. The system hasn't organized any better this morning, but is still on track to at least become a Tropical Storm over the Labor Day weekend. Model trends point more towards a recurve out to sea. Not 1000% sold just yet, but so far, I see nothing to really convince me otherwise. Worth watching, but seems to be a diminishing threat for the Eastern US. Elsewhere, a broad wave leaving Africa may develop in the next few days too. It's very far away, and almost certain to eventually recurve or fall apart over the Western Atlantic. In the Pacific: Super Typhoon Hinnamnor is the most impressive storm of the 2022 season in any basin so far. The Typhoon packs winds well into Category Four strength this morning, sporting the classic "buzz-saw" look. Hinnamnor will strengthen a little more, grazing Category Five intensity tonight and tomorrow. From there, a rapid slow down near the islands of Southern Japan will commence, where the storm will sit for days as it slowly weakens. Very heavy rainfall is forecast, well over a foot, for some down there. Okinawa will be spared the worst, but some of the more southerly islands are in for a rough few days as Hinnamnor crawls around, waiting for a ride out of town, possibly for 3-5 days. Elsewhere, the rest of the Pacific basin is fairly quiet. There is one invest east of the Philippines, south of Hinnamnor, that will need to be watched for development this week.
Tropical Update Video August 28th Today we track several areas of interest in the Atlantic basin. The only active storm globally is Tropical Storm Hinnamnor in the Western Pacific. In the Atlantic: The NHC has marked four areas of interest total across the basin. They pose varying degrees of concern for us. From West to East: 1. A tropical wave is moving through the Caribbean Sea today. It will move into Central America this week, eventually causing a broad weather pattern change. A Tropical system could eventually move out of that area, across the Yucatan, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Some models insist on it, others don't buy it. It's worth watching, but a complete wild card right now. Folks along the Western Gulf Coast should monitor, but not really be worried yet. 2. Invest 92L is located 600 miles east of Bermuda today. It's a vigorous swirl, but can't produce thunderstorms much in the dry, dusty air and wind shear. It could steal a name tomorrow or Tuesday, but it's no threat to anyone and will dissipate by mid week. 3. Invest 91L is a big wave located in the Central Atlantic. This is the one that may eventually threaten the Eastern US next weekend, but we've got allot of clock to chew. The system will take a few days to develop, organize, and consolidate. By Friday, it'll be near the Antilles and Puerto Rico, by Sunday it should be in vicinity of the Bahamas. From there, it'll heavily depend on storm size, position, strength, and the overall pattern to see what threat, if any, it poses to the East Coast. It's something to monitor, but too early to panic. For now, early indications are it would want to turn away, back to sea, but that's not guaranteed. We will closely follow this wave through the week. 4. Another tropical wave is leaving Africa, with a decent shot to develop. But it'll be many days before it gets going, slowly journey ahead. That's like, two weeks from now's problem. In the Pacific: The Eastern Pacific is quiet today. Ou
Tropical Update Video August 27th There are no active storms in any ocean basin today. In the Atlantic: Signs of change continue to pop up in the basin, as we stretch our quiet into 55+ days. Today, two tropical waves are carefully monitored in the basin. Neither are likely to develop in the short term, but both could be issues down the line. Our first is a wave located south of Hispaniola today. The wave should make it into the Western Caribbean early/mid next week, where conditions could be more favorable for development. The EURO is still mum on it, while the GFS consistently for several runs now, develops it into a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend. From there, it would depend if the pattern let's a system move north into the Western Gulf coast, or shunts it into Mexico. Allot of "if" though, it may not even develop at all. Just worth watching, folks in the Western side of the gulf should be keeping an eye on forecasts. Our second issue is a very large wave in the Central Atlantic. It's all jumbled up with a monsoon trof, and other stuff. Nothing going on next few days thanks to dry air. But eventually, the wave will organize some, and should be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week. From there, computer models, both GFS and EURO, organize the system and take it north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. By next weekend, both show a well organized Tropical Storm, or Hurricane, in the Bahamas. From there, it really depends on the pattern. The system could be turned towards Florida, it could stall in the Bahamas, it could move up into the Carolinas, or it could turn to sea. All depends on strength/placement of high pressure. Of the two waves, this one's more concerning than the gulf one, but also too early to worry about too much. We'll have to see it organize at all first, something other waves have failed to do, and see where it actually winds up. NO reason to cancel any Labor Day Weekend plans or worry at all yet. But it's a good
Tropical Update Video August 20th Today we track Potential Tropical Cyclone Four as your only active storm globally. In the Atlantic: PTC 4 is expected to make landfall later today in Northern Mexico or deep Southern Texas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35mph, and the system has not organized much overnight. The Hurricane Hunters found a better, but still insufficient attempt at a closed circulation, thus it remains "not really" a Tropical Storm. It has about six to eight hours left to steal a name, but impacts seem pretty set either way. Some gusty winds, and heavy downpours for Northeast Mexico and South Texas, where TS warnings remain up, but far from a big or serious impact. Elsewhere, the NHC monitors a wave leaving Africa today, with about a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days. The waves pretty big, should take some time to consolidate, and won't be in the best of environments. Not likely any threat for the US for now. Otherwise, basin is pretty quiet, but we are in that time of year where stuff can kinda "pop-up", so we'll be watching carefully. In the Pacific: The remnants of Ivette in the Eastern Pacific are trying to re-fire some today. Could organize enough to be named over the next few days. But the system is well off-shore and no threat to land. Out west, two areas of interest are monitored by the JTWC in the Western Pacific. A short-lived cyclone made landfall in Eastern India yesterday. Otherwise, everything is quiet.
Tropical Update Video August 19th Tonight, we track Potential Tropical Cyclone Four in the Gulf of Mexico, and take a look at the basin as a whole. The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, formerly Invest 99L in the Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 35mph, and the system is moving Northwest at 14mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are up from Port Mansfield, Texas, into Mexico. PTC 4 looks like a mixed bag tonight overall. Good outflow aloft, and an overall favorable environment point to the system developing further down the road. However, the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed circulation center, and thunderstorm activity has waned into the evening. The reality is PTC 4 does not have much time before landfall to close up and get a name. Regardless if it does or not, it'll produce wind gusts into Tropical Storm force, and produce some heavy rain for North Mexico, and possibly for South Texas in bursts. It's not a serious threat, but folks in South Texas will have a rainy, gusty Saturday. We also spend a few minutes tonight on the basin as a whole. Despite a persistent La Nina pattern that usually spells trouble, our season has not really taken off. This is mostly due a persistent "wave-breaking" pattern in the Atlantic, that's keeping the tropics blanketed with dry, hostile air. Will it wake up? Right now, doesn't look super promising, but we can't sleep on the tropics, even if things don't look bad right now. But the short answer is activity may remain sporadic into September if nothing changes. Elsewhere, there are no other active storms globally.
Tropical Update July 12th Today we track Major Hurricane Darby in the Eastern Pacific as your only active system, as well as an area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico. In the Atlantic: All quiet on the tropical Atlantic front. Nothing cooking way out yonder for awhile. Near the Gulf Coast, a surface trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from Louisiana to Florida. Some tropical development of this system is possible over the next few days, if it can sit over warm water long enough to acquire some rotation and organization. Regardless if it does or not, heavy rainfall will impact the region for the next several days. Forecast totals are between 6-10 inches for now, but could go up a little. The rain won't fall all at once, but several days of heavy showers and storms will lead to flooding concerns, rather the system gets a name or not. We'll see if the system can get it's act together or not, but please respect the rainfall threat regardless. In the Pacific: Major Hurricane Darby is an impressive annular Hurricane this morning, with maximum sustained winds near 140mph. Darby is the first Category Four of the year in either basin, after intensifying very quickly the last 36 hours or so. Thankfully, Darby is in the middle of nowhere in the Eastern Pacific, and is running out of time to stay strong. Soon the storm will see cooler waters and more wind shear, which will quickly zap it before making it's way to Hawaii. Some passing weather is likely for the island state this weekend, but no serious impacts are expected. The Western Pacific is quiet today. Behind Darby, another system likely develops later this week in the Eastern Pacific, also away from land.
Tropical Update Video July 10th Today we track newly formed Tropical Storm Darby in the Eastern Pacific as our only active storm. In the Atlantic: The NHC is monitoring a frontal boundary that will drift into the northern Gulf of Mexico this week for possible development. The boundary will have some help from the upper levels, and a short lived Tropical Depression or Storm may form near the Central Gulf Coast later this week. Regardless of development, days of heavy rain are expected to come from the very soggy and persistent tropical flow and pattern, which will lead to flooding concerns across the Southeast US, even if a storm does not organize. For now, if one does form, it would not likely be very strong, but again, heavy rainfall will bring it's own issues. Otherwise, the Tropical Atlantic basin is very quiet and should stay that way for awhile. In the Pacific: As the NHC said goodbye to Bonnie, it said hello to Darby, the 5th named storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific basin. Darby is a compact Tropical Storm well away from land, and only moving further away. Should become a Hurricane in a day or so, but looks to not bother anyone. Across the pond, the Western Pacific is quiet. Overall, both sides of the Pacific look to stay active into Mid-July with multiple storms possibly developing.
Tropical Update July 3rd Today we track two active storms in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Bonnie in the Eastern Pacific, and Tropical Depression Aere in the Western Pacific. In the Atlantic: All quiet for the first time in awhile. The NHC killed off Tropical Storm Colin at 5am, ending his 24 hour reign of terror. System fell apart about as fast as it spun up, and most of the bad weather with the leftovers are already off-shore. Bonnie has crossed over to better things, and no other areas of interest are marked. Appears were trending back to quiet for awhile. In the Pacific: Tropical Storm Bonnie is on a ramp up today, producing ridiculous thunderstorm activity right now. This will likely help catapult the system to hurricane intensity today or tonight, something it will maintain for several days. Thankfully, Bonnie stays off-shore of any land interests through the week. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Aere brings rain to Japan, but no serious impacts expected. Looking ahead: The next two weeks in the Atlantic are likely to be suppressed, with the MJO rotating out of phase. Not impossible to see something, but overall activity will be turning down for awhile. Most of the global activity will be focused in the Western Pacific, where a few storms are likely this month. As we look into the 2nd half of July, the background state should become more favorable in the Atlantic, and we'll see a Ridge/trough pattern over CONUS, which may help fuel some "homegrown" systems to watch. Something we'll be tracking down the road. Otherwise, enjoy the break!
Tropical Update July 2nd Today we track 3 active storms across the basins. Tropical Storms Colin and Bonnie in the Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Aere in the Western Pacific. In the Atlantic: As mentioned earlier, Tropical Storm Colin surprised everyone by spinning up near the coast of South Carolina last night. The little Tropical Storm produced a nice low level center, anchored by thunderstorms, and met all the criteria for a Tropical Cyclone. The NHC initiated advisories at 5am, and Tropical Storm Warnings remain up from Edisto Beach SC to The OBX of North Carolina. Colin will move along the coast today and tomorrow, producing periods of heavy rain and gusty winds, mostly in North Carolina. Expect some flash flooding and sporadic power outages through mid-day tomorrow. Colin will not intensify much, if at all, today or tomorrow, and will be absorbed by a front by Monday. Elsewhere, Bonnie made landfall in Nicaragua last night. The system made a furious intensification push just before hitting, making it into the 50-60mph range before moving in. Given more time, Bonnie would have absolutely been a hurricane, thankfully climatology was on our side with this one. Bonnie will enter the Eastern Pacific today, keeping her name, and moving off for several days to come. Not expected to impact land again though. Otherwise, the Atlantic is mostly quiet. One wave is noted in the Caribbean, but isn't expected to develop due to unfavorable conditions. After this wave, the Tropics look pretty quiet on our side for awhile. In the Pacific: No activity in the Eastern Pacific besides Bonnie's arrival today. Out west, Typhoon Chaba made landfall in South China, producing a regional tornado outbreak and heavy rain. Meanwhile, TS Aere will move through the islands of Japan, including mainland Japan over the next few days. Rainfall remains the primary threat, the system should overall stay on the weaker side.
Tropical Update July 1st Today we track newly named Tropical Storm Bonnie (Formerly PTC 2), as our only active system in the Atlantic. The Western Pacific has two active tropical storms, Chaba and Aere. In the Atlantic: The National Hurricane Center has finally upgraded PTC 2 to Tropical Storm Bonnie. Bonnie is the 2nd named storm of the 2022 season, after finally closing off a low level center of circulation. The system looks healthier overall today, and should have a short time to intensify before landfall in Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight tonight. According to Philip Klotzbach, Bonnie is just the 6th named storm in the Caribbean in July on record, and the first since 2008. Overall, Bonnie will have no impact on the US, and will transition into the Eastern Pacific, where it will continue away from land for several days. Elsewhere, Invest 95L by Texas never developed before moving ashore. Periods of heavy rain are expected for Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana, but no serious impacts expected. Finally, a wave following Bonnie near the Windward Islands has a very low chance to develop before being wrecked by wind shear later this weekend. No impacts expected for now. In the Pacific: The NHC tracks a wave in the Eastern Pacific, with decreasing chances to develop into a short lived storm. Far away from land. Out west, Tropical Storm Chaba should become a low grade Typhoon (Cat 1 Hurricane) before landfall in China tomorrow. Heavy rain will likely be the primary issue over there. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Aere will move through almost all the islands of Japan over the next week, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the region, but is forecast to stay below Typhoon strength for now. Looking down the road, the Atlantic basin is likely to quiet back down for the 1st half of July, but likely will become more active later in the month. The ebb and flow of the season continues.
Tropical Update June 30th Today we track many things across the global tropics. We have two active storms: PTC 2 in the Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Chaba in the Western Pacific. In the Atlantic: Our 3 main players stick around for another day today. Starting off to our south, PTC 2 continues to race through the Caribbean Sea. The system is on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie, as soon as it can finish closing off a circulation center. It is forecast to stay on a due west heading, intensifying to near hurricane intensity before landfall in Nicaragua late Friday into early Saturday. Bonnie is then expected to hold together across Nicaragua and move into the Eastern Pacific, where it'll keep it's name and keep going for days to come. No threat to the US in any way. Elsewhere, Invest 95L spins off the coast of Texas today. Development is looking less likely today, but periods of heavy rain are already moving ashore. The system will slowly drift north and ashore in East Texas over the next day or two. Beneficial rain to a drought stricken area is forecast to the tune of 3-6 inches. Some flash flooding possible, but overall good news for an area that needs rain for once. Finally, a wave is following PTC 2 in the Atlantic. However, environmental conditions in the Eastern Caribbean look unfavorable this weekend, so the wave is not likely to develop. In the Pacific: The Eastern Pacific has an area with a 60% chance to develop into a storm, but should stay well off-shore and away from any land. Out west, the Western Pacific has it's first named storm since April 15th, with the formation of Chaba in the South China Sea. It'll move into Southern China possibly as a Typhoon in a few days. Another invest to the East of the Philippines may also develop anytime. Finally signs of life from what's normally the globes most active basin.
Widespread Severe Weather Outbreak across the Deep South
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