Redbeard's Weather Page

27/06/2025

Tropical Update
June 26th 2025

There are no active storms in any ocean basin.

In the Atlantic: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance producing sporadic thunderstorms and showers in the Western Caribbean Sea this evening. While it will not develop before crossing the Yucatan tomorrow, there will be a small window in the Bay of Campeche before it moves into Mexico early next week for tropical development.

We identified this window awhile back in Mid June, and as expected the basin has had a few flickers like Andrea and now this. However, given the widely suppressed and unfavorable setup, these areas aren't doing much. The weather with this will shove into Mexico early next week, and rather it's named or not, will not be a threat to the US.

Looking down the road, an upper disturbance will bring tropical moisture and heavy rain to Florida and the Central Gulf Coast. I would not be utterly shocked if a weak system tried to develop on either side of FL, either northern Gulf, or SE Coast. Some ensemble hints but not much really. Nothing to be concerned about now, besides rainfall. Beyond July 4th, more quiet is most likely for the basin. We see signs early August things may wake up, which would be right on schedule climatologically.

In the Pacific: The NHC also tracks Invest 95L off the coast of Mexico. Odds are high the 6th named storm of the season will form late this weekend. Too early to tell if the system will directly landfall in Mexico, but very heavy rain is expected for western-central Mexico either way.

Overseas, the final warnings were issued for TS Sepat, and a short lived TD 3, which has produced catastrophic flash flooding in parts of Southern China. Remember, the wrong tropical disturbance at the right time can bring tremendous rain down without ever being named. I don't know much, but apparently the flooding is generational in some cities there.

26/06/2025

Great. Next week should be a hoot at work.

Watching next week for the SE/Florida. Looks like a lingering frontal line hangs for several days. Some long range outlooks starting to show (top). Precipitable Water map (bottom) showing lots of juice. Anything red usually means heavy rains. Could last towards weekend in spots. www.spaghettimodels.com

25/06/2025

The Columbia, SC forecast discussion is pretty crazy.

I know those values don't mean much to the average joe, but any nerds reading that are gonna be like "uhh, what". I'm not sure I've ever read a 9.9c/km lapse rate discussion before lol.

SPC notes Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely in the next hour or two. Initiation should be a little later this afternoon, looks like there's a bit of a midlevel cap at the moment cooking this even more. Forecast highs should peak near 100 in Central SC/NC, before the lid blows off and storms erupt.

In addition to hurricane force wind gusts in some of these storms, I would not be shocked to see some gnarly hail for this area. Late June is awfully late for hail but, it's certainly on the menu today.

25/06/2025

SPC maps and hi res models for the day.

A bit of an unusual setup is in place over the Southeast US today. An upper-level low is swirling off the coast, dragging cooler air and stronger winds aloft down over the region. Closer to the surface, intense, summertime high pressure is anchored over the region. This volatile difference in temps, along with just a bit of wind shear, will likely fuel strong to severe thunderstorms later today, tonight, and probably into early Thursday morning.

The SPC has a "Slight" 2/5 risk for severe thunderstorms set for virtually all of NC, SC, and GA, as well as much of Northwest Florida, from Pensacola to Tallahassee.

This is a good day to look at indices generated by weather balloons. We have a bunch of calculated values that really help paint the picture. The morning balloon from FFC near Atlanta shows 4815 j/kg of MU CAPE, DCAPE of 1280 j/kg, an LI of -11, and mid-level lapse rates approaching 8.5 degrees C per KM.

Those values reinforce that we have a highly volatile atmosphere today, and should see fairly widespread activity. We also know these cells will be likely to produce damaging to possibly destructive straight line wind gusts. Some gusts over 70mph would be very possible.

For my Jacksonville folks, your forecast is a bit different. Drier air is centered over you, which means your afternoon thunderstorm potential is very limited, mostly to the west coast Seabreeze near I-75. Most of the greater JAX area will be storm-free this afternoon, with hot temps well into the 90s.

Where it gets interesting is tonight. As storms develop in SC and GA, they could merge into a complex of storms, a "nocturnal MCS" as it's called. This complex of storms may try to move in early tomorrow morning, maybe after midnight to about 6-8am. This could bring strong winds, heavy rain and such as it does. Don't be shocked if it's pouring on your morning commute tomorrow, especially towards and north of I-10.

We'll be watching for another MCS moving this way towards Mobile/Biloxi/Pensacola tonight too. Setup sorta repeats with less energy tomorrow afternoon then things return to normal faire on Friday-weekend.

25/06/2025

Andrea is already gone. Didn't last 12 hours.

If we're being real, even 12 hours is a stretch. But hey, one in the bag.

We'll chat in the AM, tracking some stronger thunderstorms for the Southeast tomorrow. Could be a spicy day.

25/06/2025

Holy crap man.

Guys please take lightning serious this time of year. It’s been a deadly summer already. It’s nothing to mess with.

24/06/2025

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Andrea, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores Islands in the Central Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are 40mph, and the system is moving ENE at 17mph. There are no watches or warnings associated with Andrea.

Andrea is the 1st named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. On average, the first storm in the basin forms around June 20th.

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Well, we said on June 12th that the 19th-24th was a small window...

Also, of course, the NHC could not help themselves. Look I don't really get into the whole conspiracy of storm naming for money or whatever. The NHC folks are brilliant forecasters, but I've always maintained this field over-thinks itself on the public messaging front.

Yes, there was likely a brief few hours where Andrea was a classifiable Tropical Cyclone this morning. Systems like Andrea in marginal conditions often fire convection on diurnal cycles, and the "diurnal maximum" is early in the morning, where upper temperatures are the coolest, allowing for the best lapse rates of the day. Like one of those periodic table elements at the bottom, where they only exist for hours or minutes, Andrea hit the qualifications briefly. But Andrea will be a remnant swirl tonight, and simply take up a name in the books for absolutely zero reason.

Technically correct, but silly messaging. And 5 bucks says we'll have a weak system in a month hitting Florida or Texas that'll bring a foot of rain to some towns, and we'll find a reason not to name that, but we can name vigorous swirls in June. Silly to me.

Anyway, Andrea is absolutely zero threat to land, and will be no more within 24 hours, if not sooner. First storm comes and goes with a whimper, and it's still very quiet for any *real* threats.

23/06/2025

Hang in friends up in New England.

You’ll be back to normal by Thursday lol

23/06/2025

Tropical Update
June 23rd 2025

Tropical Storm Sepat is your only active system today globally, located in the Western Pacific.

In the Atlantic: A non-tropical low well east of Bermuda has been dubbed Invest 91L. The NHC had this up to 70% this morning, citing it was close to tropical depression status. It had a pretty decent low level circulation, but like many storms in the subtropics, was struggling to generate thunderstorm activity. Last few hours storm activity fell off a bit, and it's only got a short window to try again before shear becomes too high. Besides stealing a name, absolutely no issue or impact to land.

Makes good sense in broader terms. While you've heard the Atlantic is "above average" again this year, it's very much the mid-latitude parts of the basin that are warm. The actual tropics are below average. where most storms that would threaten the US would form.

In the Pacific: The NHC is tracking another Eastern Pacific basin threat later this week. Good chance we'll see the 6th named storm of the season there going into Friday. Unclear if this one will impact land. Hopefully not but we'll see.

Out west, TS Sepat has formed south of Japan. Moving their direction, but as it stands, does not appear it'll be much of a threat. Forecast to stay weak, and turn away from the coast as it dissipates.

Another area is being monitored west of the Philippines.

22/06/2025

Driving back today, no full update.

Only thing in the Atlantic, absolutely zero threat to the eastern US.

21/06/2025

😳

20/06/2025

Storm popped up at my moms place this afternoon.

Radar shows us on the edge. Can look off and see sunlight to the northwest.

Fat raindrops, allot of cool air coming out of it, breezy. Probably on the down flank of it. Juuust starting to produce lightning.

Makes sense, sea breeze passed about an hour ago, just enough lift to likely overcome a weak subsidence inversion and pop storms off.