Redbeard's Weather Page

08/10/2025

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located about 1200 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 50mph and the system is moving westward at 23mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, and Sint Maarten in the Antilles.

Discussion: Invest 95L got the upgrade this morning to TS Jerry, our 10th named storm of the 2025 season. On average, the 10th named storm of the season is usually on Sep 22nd, so a little behind pace numerically. Jerry is a decent looking storm this evening, with a good amount of TS activity around the center, with a healthy CDO masking the low-level circulation. Looks pretty good all in all.

The overall track of Jerry seems pretty certain. A classic recurve track is in order, with all global and statistical/dynamical models in good agreement of the broad turn. However, for interests in the Northern Antilles and Bermuda, the details don't allow for any definitive calls as of yet. Jerry could pass close enough for direct impacts to one, or both, of those areas over the next several days.

Intensity wise, NHC expects steady intensification. Jerry is in a pretty good environment already, and a combination of light wind shear and warm waters should help the system become a hurricane within 24 hours, and there's a decent window for a rapid-intensification episode here. Jerry might be a fairly strong hurricane on approach to the islands late Thursday and Friday, which is why TS Watches are already up. Even if Jerry does turn before the islands, core of strong winds may be close enough for direct impacts.

Thankfully, Jerry is no threat to the Eastern US.

If you read our Oct 1 monthly preview, it was no surprise to you that Jerry popped up. We timed a passing strong CCKW in this second week of October, which has already given us two hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, and is now working into the Atlantic.

The Western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche will be our next areas to monitor, but for now, it does appear frontal activity will keep things pinned down there for a little while. So far so good, but a fiesty few weeks left to go.

07/10/2025

Couple quick morning hits on your Tuesday.

1. Our next tropical system is likely on deck in the next day or so. Invest 95L continues to churn through the Central Atlantic, and will become TS Jerry by tomorrow. Thankfully, models are highly confident on a recurve out to sea. Jerry could scrape close to the Northern Antilles, enough for some impacts, but it remains to be seen. System is no threat to the Eastern US. The NHC has also marked the Southern Gulf for some activity, but all indications are whatever could form will stay way down there.

2. A non-tropical coastal low will spin up this weekend and likely linger into early next week. The system should slowly work up the coast from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, and then possibly stall and drift back down. Models are indicating a pretty strong system, enough for some significant impacts. It will keep the brisk Northeasterly wind pattern in place from Florida through the Delmarva region, and likely lead to more heavy rain, high winds, rip currents, high surf, and coastal erosion that has been the story lately along the East coast. Named or not it will be a significant story for many folks.

3. Out west, two Eastern Pacific tropical systems will pump heavy moisture into the Southwest US. The Four Corners region will get the most, expecting several inches of rain through early next week, in a late-season supercharged monsoon.

This is good news in relation to the drought, which has really gotten bad this summer. Most of Arizona & Utah, as well as Western Colorado and New Mexico, are in a serious drought, at least stage 2/4. Many are in extreme to exceptional drought conditions. So the rain will be very welcome. But too much too fast will lead to widespread flash flooding in the area, with destructive debris flows.

4. In case you missed it: The NWS in Grand Forks ND upgraded a June tornado near Enderlin, ND to EF-5 after careful re-analysis. We have a full write up on the page from yesterday. It's now the first EF-5 tornado in the US since 2013, snapping the longest such drought on record.

06/10/2025

We had some significant weather news drop by the National Weather Service today.

The United States' EF-5 tornado drought is officially over. The National Weather Service office in Grand Forks, ND has upgraded a tornado from June 20th 2025 near Enderlin, ND to EF-5 on the Enhanced-Fujita scale, with estimated winds over 210mph in the tornado. This revision from EF-3 to EF-5, after careful analysis, is the first EF-5 rated tornado since the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 13th 2013. The drought between those two events, 4,421 days, was the longest on record since we've been accurately classifying tornadoes with the EF scale.

The Enderlin Tornado was actually not part of a widespread tornado outbreak. Instead, it was a multi-day "derecho" event that saw a powerful complex of storms sweep through the upper plains. The main event was the evening of June 20th to the early hours of the 21st, when a bowing storm complex of severe thunderstorms swept through North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, into the Great Lakes.

The Enderlin tornado touched down at 11:02pm CDT near Enderlin. It rapidly intensified to peak strength, when it blew over a train with some fully loaded cars full of grain. Another empty train car was throw nearly 500 feet (1 1/2 football fields) away from the tracks. The tornado would hit two farmhouses, killing 3 people between them. It traveled 12 miles, and was about a mile wide at peak, lifting at 11:21pm 5 miles SSW of Alice, ND.

The upgrade came after bringing in expert analysis to determine possible wind speeds required to create the damage surveyed. As a reminder, the EF scale uses wind speeds, but unlike hurricanes which are subjectively determined by satellite and recon data, tornadoes are rated based on their damage caused after the fact.

One of the big issues with the EF scale is lack of reliable damage indicators. As a quick example, if a moderately built home is destroyed by 130mph winds, it's impossible to say if 130mph winds, or 200mph caused it, because destroyed is destroyed, so the EF scale only allows for the lower rating. Few structures can withstand EF-5 winds, so to find something that did survive them is very rare.

In this case, the NWS surveyed very large trees that were debarked 'in a sandpaper type way' and the loaded train cars being blown over and thrown were the other indicator. Heavy calculations determined that winds no less than 210mph would have been required to lift such heavy train cars, and the max winds match well with the doppler radar wind data available.

So, the longest EF-5 drought on record is over. The highly controversial talking point can now be put to rest, at least for the next 13 years or so!

06/10/2025

Weather In Five!
Monday October 6th 2025

Back to real-time recordings this month with the shift change. Morning satellite and radar shows a cloudy and gloomy start to the work week across the Jacksonville area. The persistent nor'easter pattern is holding on for at least one more full day. Expect waves of scattered showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two, to move in through the day. Not a washout all day, but one or two periods of some moderate to heavy rain are likely.

It appears one wave will move through much of the area (especially south of downtown) this morning, and then more rain develops in the afternoon. Temps hold in the low 80s with the clouds and rain.

Tuesday and Wednesday signal a drier pattern moving in, temporarily switching things up. Much lower rain chances tomorrow, and pretty dry on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s.

Thursday a front moves in and shifts things right back to rain and wind. A strong coastal low will develop Friday into the weekend, keeping the winds and rain up.

Tropics wise, no threats for NE Florida. Invest 95L only thing we're tracking for now, and it's confidently forecast to stay far off-shore!

05/10/2025

05/10/2025

Non-tropical Gulf low wandering westward this evening.

Some rain starting to band up in the North-Central Gulf, will push inland tomorrow. Some periods of heavy rain for coastal LA/MS/AL tomorrow. First real meaningful rainfall in some time. We've had one day of measurable rainfall (1.28in) since late August at Keesler. Been bone dry.

This should push some totals in. Will start Crusin the Coast off on a wet note here in Biloxi, but we should dry out some later this week.

NHC has the low marked on their map, but at 0%, shouldn't have any tropical issues with it. Still gonna make weather across the coast next few days.

East coast of FL stays wet too tomorrow and into early week as the relentless Nor'Easter pattern stays in place.

04/10/2025

Some updated totals from NWS Jax tonight.

Rainfall still looking high. Today was the first of several wet days ahead. A persistent on-shore flow will bring a Noreaster type pattern through the area into early next week. Expect major beach impacts. Erosion, coastal flooding on the high tide cycles, rip currents, and high surf.

Rainfall totals are now running near 4-8 inches through Tuesday, mostly along and East of I-95. They trend down further west you go, but everyones getting a solid soaking out of this between now and next week.

02/10/2025

Morning NHC Map.

Imelda was declared post-tropical with the 11am update. There are no longer any active storms in the Atlantic.

The NHC is tracking two areas of interest this morning.

1. A tropical wave is moving off of Africa today, and will begin a long journey across the open Atlantic. No development is expected for now, but in about 5-7 days, it could find a window of favorability. It's a little late in the year for AEWs but, it's not unheard of. Especially given the favorable background state the Atlantic should have later next week. Interests in the Antilles should monitor the progress of this system, far too early to determine any possible US impacts.

2. A non-tropical low should form near the East coast of Florida over the next couple of days as a boundary stalls in the area. Eventually, shifting high pressure will guide it back across the state into the Gulf. There is a low chance this could acquire some tropical or sub-tropical characteristics as it moves towards the Central Gulf Coast late this weekend. For now it's a very low threat for anything serious, likely just a non-tropical rainmaker.

All we've got to track for the next couple of days. Still expect a sharp up-tick in activity sometime later next week, into the week after. Could be a busy 2-3 week stretch in Mid October. Wouldn't discount it.

02/10/2025

We've made it back to regular videos! Your 3 day forecast for the Jacksonville area.

Overall, expect a gloomy and rainy couple days. Not so bad today. After a bout of pre-dawn showers to the south of town, expect a generally dry-ish day, with some coastal rain showers developing in the afternoon. Highs right around 80, with downright gusty winds at the coast and breezy winds elsewhere.

Friday and Saturday the pattern picks up with more widespread rainfall and thunderstorm coverage into the weekend. Gusty winds, coastal impacts, and periods of rain should persist. Rainfall totals appear to be in the 3-5 inch range at the coast, and 1-4 inches towards inland areas. Further inland you are, more sporadic the coverage.

This will stick around into next week too, as this "nor'easter" type of pattern doesn't really go anywhere.

Tropics wise, all quiet for the local area for now. Next sign of trouble in the Atlantic isn't for several days. But we do expect activity to pick up a good bit in the next 2-3 weeks, so don't put away that hurricane stuff just yet!

01/10/2025

Some pictures from the weekend up in Wisconsin. Taken between Milwaukee and Door County.

To keep it weather related, it was a very warm and pleasant Thursday-Sunday there. Highs up in the Peninsula made it into the low 70s each day, with plenty of sunshine. Incredibly warm and calm for this time of year.

We did a Zodiac tour Saturday and the captain mentioned that he’s never doing them this late in the year, but this year he’s booking into October.

Which, given the CPC forecasts, he’s right. Much above normal temps will continue for virtually all the Central and Eastern US through Mid-October as this combo -PNA and +NAO pattern continues to dominate. No signs of significant cool weather are showing up for the next couple of weeks. You could even tell the fall colors were about 2 weeks behind schedule.

In fact, late this week, highs may soar well into the 80s and even low 90s across the Midwest, many daily (and maybe monthly) records will be under siege.

But yeah, outstanding scenery in Eastern/Northern WI. Highly recommend if you’re ever up that way.

01/10/2025

We've made it to October team. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season enters it's last month of legit activity. Let's review where we're at, what is typical of October, and what we can expect in the next 2-3 weeks.

To date, the 2025 Season has produced 9 named storms & 4 hurricanes, 3 of which became Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+). The numbers at this point are typically 10/5/3. In terms of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) we're at 88, as compared to an average of 96 by Oct 1. Humberto and Gabrielle really helped to bring that total up, which was severely lacking. In all, it's been a near-normal season to date with the recent spike in storms, but remains a low-impact season as far as landfalls go.

As we look into October historically, the threat shifts away from long-tracked African waves, and looks to line up in a more "homegrown" mode. The Caribbean, Bahamas, and Gulf become more likely for some sort of activity. In broad numbers, October is statistically less active than August or September, but it should be noted the atmospheric shift into fall can produce some October monsters:

Typhoon Tip (1970) holds the world record for lowest pressure and biggest storm by physical size. Hurricane Patricia (2015) became the strongest storm on record off the coast of Western Mexico, with 215mph sustained winds. Hurricane Wilma (2005) also holds the world record for intensification in a 30 hour period. Don't discount the ceiling of this month, even if there's less overall storms.

So what about this month specifically? Medium range Madden-Julian Oscillation/Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave forecasts indicate a fairly quiet next couple of days. Imelda and Humberto should clear out and become post-tropical systems by the end of the week, and the NHC has nothing else on their map for the next several days.

However, looking into the 2nd week of the month, we're likely to see a good window open for activity. The MJO will remain weak, but at least in a favorable phase for Atlantic activity (cycling 2-3). The more prominent driving factor will be a strong passage of a CCKW, which will help spark off any disturbance trying to get going. Combine that with overall favorable upper divergence and cooling upper temps, and it's very reasonable to expect the middle of the month may be busy. It's too early to say where exactly, but an early call suggests the last good AEW moving towards the Eastern Caribbean could develop near the Leeward Islands, and we could see some activity in the Western Caribbean/Yucatan region as a typical Central-American Gyre pattern tries to set up. Both of these zones are highlighted on NOAA's Tropical Hazards Outlook, updated yesterday.

It would not shock me to see one or two more storms of significance. Doesn't necessarily mean US landfalls, but I doubt we'll see a month of radio silence. Last couple years the season has tried to "make up for lost time", so don't get comfortable just yet. We're back to the swing of things here, so we'll be tracking!

30/09/2025

Sorry for the absence. Longer flight back than expected yesterday, just sorta took a day lol.

All normal operations around here will resume today. Weather in Five back Thursday, all that jazz.

Today, Hurricane Imelda is spinning a few hundred miles from Florida. This morning, Imelda became the 4th hurricane of the 2025 season, joining Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto. Maximum sustained winds are near 85mph.

Imelda is still confidently turning away from the Eastern US, thanks to powerful Humberto collapsing the steering flows that tried to push Imelda into the Carolinas or even FL/GA. Imelda is now forecast to race eastward this week, and should pass directly over Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the island. They're already being lashed by the very outer bands of Humberto, and Imelda will be right behind. Worst there should be on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Today Imelda is still spreading her influence across the Southeast. Periods of rain, along with strong Northeasterly winds, will continue to press down on the coasts of FL, GA, SC and NC into the evening. Expect the heaviest rain along I-95, but showers and downpours possible elsewhere. Surf, coastal erosion, and rip currents will remain an issue for the next several days.

For the Jax area, rain tapers off a good bit tomorrow, with highs below normal in the low 80s. Easterly winds remain elevated, downright windy at the beaches.

Thursday into the weekend a frontal boundary backs up over the region, setting up a several day period of more rain, maybe some thunderstorms. Expect a wet end to the week and likely stretching into the weekend. Could be heavier at times, maybe some localized flooding concerns, especially along I-95. WPC calling for at least 4-5 inches of rain by early next week. Something we'll monitor and probably cover more in depth as the week goes on.