Redbeard's Weather Page

01/06/2026

May 2026 Rainfall Recap:
☔️ Gulfport saw its 2nd wettest May on record (dating back to 1894) which was more rainfall than January through April combined.

😳 More notably, Pearl River and Hancock counties saw an estimated 25-30" of rainfall which led to significant flooding across the area.

01/06/2026

Disappointingly dry across NE Florida so far today. Rain mostly stuck up in SE GA. Some locales there got hammered it seems.

There is a line of rain moving through Lake City into our western counties. Maybe that’ll be nice for some folks. Bit of a letdown today, hopefully some more opportunities next 2 days.

31/05/2026

Rain chances for today across the NE Florida / SE Georgia region and the week ahead.

A rainy day is likely across the I-10 and I-95 corridors as a frontal boundary sinks southward. Showers are already firing along the boundary as it works down into the area. We'll see pockets of thunderstorms & heavy rain moving west to east into the late afternoon. Should also see some activity along I-95 as the east coast seabreeze stays pinned just on-shore, helping to focus more lift.

Rainfall totals from the WPC show an averaged amount of about 1 to 1.5 inches total through early tomorrow. The HRRR shows how that rain might *actually* fall, in the same vein as the last couple of days. Some backyards will get much more than that average, others will get almost nothing. Been the story the last couple of days, and it'll keep up today.

Monday a low pressure will begin to develop off-shore of the coast, initially sending the boundary back north as a warm front, once again providing an environment for afternoon-evening storms in the area. Rain chances stay high into Tuesday as the low develops, and sends a cold front back down into the area. Sunday through Tuesday night show good shots for downpours each day, the heaviest rain focused on the coastal counties (Nassau, Duval, St Johns, Flagler). But everyone in the area should get some more beneficial rain the next few days.

The weather will change pretty dramatically for Wednesday and Thursday. A developing coastal / sub-tropical low moving away from the Carolinas will send a "back door" front through the area, significantly drying you guys out, and dropping temperatures + humidity quite a bit.

Daytime highs Wednesday will only work into the low 80s, at most. This is combined with dewpoints back in the low 60s, a rarity in June. It should make the days feel far more comfortable than typical. This holds into Thursday, before conditions begin to recover to typical summer-time faire on Friday.

This begins a drier period after Wednesday. I would not expect any rain through next weekend after Tuesday night or so, and that might be the case for early June. As we talked about in yesterday's Patreon post, the tropical moisture that was expected has shifted westward towards TX/LA, so drought will still be a topic despite these beneficial rains.

30/05/2026

Storms a-goin this afternoon

30/05/2026

Hey all, hope you're having a great Saturday!

My latest over on Patreon, free as always, is below. Today we're just rounding up a few different topics.

We take a look at the Tropics now that June is here, on the eve of the 2026 Hurricane Season starting. Overall, it does appear development of a significant system in the Atlantic is falling, thought we still may see a weak rain-maker type system in the Gulf sometime in the next 10-12 days.

We also chat about the falling rainfall totals for Florida into June. After a wet few days ahead, it appears the expected rain late next week and beyond is not as impressive as before. Still welcome relief ahead, but maybe not the drought-nuke we were hoping for.

Finally, I give a review of the movie Pressure, that released this weekend. The movie follows the true story of the D-Day and one of the most consequential weather forecasts ever issued. If you don't have time for the full review, it was really solid, technically sound overall, and fun if you're into war and/or science movies. No absurd hollywood liberties with the science side, good performances, and a really great humanized look at what it means to do this job sometimes.

Hope you'll check it out!

Redbeard's Rambles: Saturday Roundup by Redbeard Wx on Patreon. Join Redbeard Wx's community for exclusive content and updates.

30/05/2026

29/05/2026

Downpours all around this afternoon.

29/05/2026

Another round of showers and storms are expected across the NE Florida/SE Georgia area this afternoon and evening.

It looks like storms should begin to pop up around the area in the next 2-3 hours, and there could be more than one round for some folks as the evening goes on. A lingering frontal boundary across S Georgia should begin to lift northward this afternoon, and a passing surface trough will help kick up some activity.

The biggest threat for heavy rain is more into Georgia where the boundary should focus some more efficient rainfall. Activity across NE Florida may be more hit-or-miss, but storms that pop up will have heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and could get a little rowdy with wind gusts. Severe storms aren't generally expected but there's a little juice available today, sorta in a water-loaded downdraft sort of setup.

Saturday looks wet too, with showers/storms starting earlier in the day, but probably not as strong. A west-coast seabreeze should move in through the day and hit a pinned east-coast seabreeze.

Sunday looks like the wettest day for the region, as the frontal boundary sinks back down and directs some more widespread precipitation over the area.

Unfortunately in the longer term, models have backed off on the rainfall totals to some degree. The trends have been for a bit drier air to hang around the region next week. This has undercut the totals from a few days ago, that indicated potential for 4-8 inches of rain by the end of next week. It'll be far from bone dry, but the chances of more soaking tropical downpours do seem to have fallen a decent bit. After Monday, well see a front finally clear the area, and with it, progressively drier air will wedge in from the northeast, likely shutting big storms/rains off Wed-Friday. Another front might help out some next weekend, but setup TBD.

Long story short, stormy conditions through Monday night, heaviest rain likely Sunday in the area. Trends drier for next week, especially Wed-Friday. Probably notably cooler and less humid next week too!

28/05/2026

More heavy rain spreading through Southern MS and E LA today.

Widespread flooding reported across most of the South MS counties. Most of it north of I-10, though I would venture there's localized street flooding down here too.

More rivers and creeks are going to hit more flood stages as this rainwater finds it's way to them. Going to be rough for the next several days.

The heaviest of this will shift away from the MS Coast in the next hour or two, more sporadic rains the rest of the evening. Will continue north of here for several more hours to come. Use high degree of caution traveling.