Redbeard's Weather Page

03/11/2025

Absolutely beautiful, dry, clear week ahead for the Southeast.

No rain, daytime highs in the low 70s tomorrow. Wednesday into this weekend a little more warming, with highs near 80, and fairly low humidity.

Next chance of rain area-wide will be Friday as a front tries to work through, but poor moisture return likely keeps this pass pretty dry. Maybe a few thunderstorms in LA and MS but not much east of that as it looks today.

Next week, a much stronger signal for another cold shot, perhaps even colder than this last shot. This should show up just before Veterans Day, and it could bring the first freeze of the year to parts of MS/AL/GA, especially northern half of those states.

FWIW, the GFS has basically no significantly measurable rainfall into the middle of November for the NE Florida area, and less than a half inch for the southeast overall.

This will exacerbate already dry conditions across the Southeast, including an "extreme" 3/4 drought for much of the FL Panhandle and the border of GA and AL. Won't take long for the coastal counties of NE Florida, who saw drought relief with the late-summer Nor'Easter patterns, creep back into dry conditions too. Something to watch over the next few weeks.

01/11/2025

We've made it to November, and the last month of the 2025 Hurricane Season! Let's take a breather and see where we're at in the tropics, both Atlantic and globally, and hit a bit about how November may shape up here in the Southeast.

With Hurricane Melissa out of the picture today, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is currently sitting just above average. To date:
Named Storms (AVG): 13 (13.5)
Hurricanes: 5 (6.6)
Major Hurricanes 4 (3)
ACE: 132.6 (115.8)

We've had a spot-on average amount of storms, a few less overall hurricanes, but one extra major hurricane. Since 3 of those hurricanes have gone Category Five, the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) has surpassed normal.

Looking at the next 2 weeks, there's not likely much going on. Some models are sniffing at the Caribbean again down the road, but background favorability with the MJO enhancing into 4-5-6 doesn't really support much. You can always get a spin up regardless of background, but nothing really is heavily suggesting another system for now. Something to watch but I'd expect at least a week of quiet.

Overseas, that will not be the case. TD31 has formed in the Western Pacific, and will track into the Philippines this week. For now the JTWC expects a near 100mph typhoon. Some models are trending higher, and we never discount a system this time of year. Models are also confident another storm will form behind this one, which also could be formidable. It'll probably be a very active 2-3 weeks in the West Pac. Remember, that basin doesn't really have an "off" season.

Here stateside, it's been a cool end of October and start of November. Another quick front will keep the clear skies and cool temps this weekend. Next week will be a slow warming pattern, with 70s returning for highs and more mild evenings.

Looking ahead, November should modulate with a more pacific-jet oriented zonal look. I would expect a few fronts but generally normal to maybe above average temps for the Southeast. Not a roasting ridge, but not super cold either.

Later this month signs do seem to point to a return of a -EPO/-NAO setup that would bring more cold weather in around Thanksgiving. Early but, something we're watching. I think this winter will be pretty variable, with conflicting signs globally on how it might shake out. Will be interesting!

31/10/2025

Don't even need to say it.

It's an absolutely perfect night for some Trick or Treating. Temps right around 60, clear skies, light breeze. Great stuff!

Gettin the sleep schedule flipped back around tonight. Back to more normal ops tomorrow. Melissa is officially post-tropical via the NHC tonight. We'll recap her run, review how the NHC did, and look at what might be next in the tropics, and for November weather wise this weekend.

If you've got weekend plans in Jax, or most of the Gulf Coast, it'll remain fantastic mostly. Maybe some rain in LA, but MS, AL, FL, GA all look great.

31/10/2025

I don't think I've ever done a write up for "The Perfect Storm". Maybe I did, don't see it in my memories so far.

Big one in history, made a movie about it I hear. This one gets confused with March of '93's "Storm of the Century".

Perfect storm was a combination of a strong winter low and Hurricane Gracie that year.

Storm of the Century was just an outrageously strong early spring storm system that pushed a cold front nearly to the equator.

31/10/2025

Hurricane Melissa making her way past Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds near 105mph. Bermuda just to the right of her core passing, that's not nearly as big of a deal now since the storms so much larger and spread out than before.

Bermuda will feel this one pretty good, especially given that 32mph forward speed. That does juice up the winds on the right side of the storm (moving with the storms direction). But it will pass quickly, just a few hours of hurricane-conditions this evening

She'll also blow by Eastern Canada Friday and Saturday. Rough at the coast but worst off-shore.

30/10/2025

Quick morning tropical update.

Hurricane Melissa has cleared the Bahamas this morning. She remains a Category two hurricane, and is quite large now. The system will continue on a steady north-eastward track for the next 2 days, as it picks up speed. Melissa is forecast to pass near Bermuda late tonight, or early Friday morning. Likely around midnight EST. Melissa has a very large wind field now, albeit not nearly as intense overall as it was in Bermuda or Cuba. Hurricane impacts are very likely, even if Melissa misses to the west. Thankfully, the worst won't last very long, just a few hours.

After that, Melissa will be history. We'll try to get a more concrete update later today or tonight on what's going on in Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. National media is reporting 25 killed in Haiti due to a floodwaters, and it sounds like at least 7 in Jamaica so far. I wouldn't really seriously consider the numbers for several days until things are sorted out. It could be weeks before we really know.

In more international news, computer models are picking up on signals for a storm in the Philippines next week. There's, as usual, a split. Some models are generally forecasting a weaker TS or lower end typhoon, while some models like the GDM are hinting at a fairly strong major typhoon. Really too early to see, will need a few days. But just like Melissa and the Atlantic, always be wary of what late-season storms can do.

After Melissa, we should have about a week of quiet in the Atlantic. However, a persistent troughing pattern over the Eastern US will likely lead to at least one more tropical system developing in the Caribbean at some point down the line next month. NOAA's 2 week outlook does show chances through mid November. While storms in November are generally rare, the Caribbean is where they almost always do develop if they do. Central America landfalls are the most likely, as fronts often block the Eastern US and Gulf from any impacts. But we'll see, ways to go there, just wait and see.

30/10/2025

Firsthand account from the right-front eyewall of Melissa.

30/10/2025

:(

Black River, Jamaica. Just east of Melissa's landfall. The strongest winds. The highest surge. Before and after pictures show the complete devastation. Received an email from a friend in Jamaica hours after landfall: "In short, the southwest side is being erased. To coin my friend it is WICKED. I'm 63 and have seen a few storms. Nothing like this." Seeing videos today verify. Catastrophic beyond words. I am starting to see an outpouring of support. Many heading in. Many offering to help. I am very hopeful for all those impacted from this storm. Neighbors helping neighbors!

29/10/2025

On This Day in Hurricane History: Superstorm Sandy, October 29th 2012.

Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy was an event unlike anything we've seen in quite a long time. A perfect combination of a winter storm and a hurricane, Sandy turned out to be one of the most costly, deadly, and devastating storms to ever hit the Northeast US.

Born off a tropical wave originating from Africa weeks earlier, Sandy was named south of Jamaica on October 22nd. Sandy was the 18th named storm, 10th hurricane, and 2nd major hurricane of a very active 2012 season. Sandy would turn northward in response to a large upper trough, striking Jamaica as a category one storm, then re-intensified rapidly to a category three before landfalling in Cuba with 135mph winds. As Sandy moved further northward, her slow transition into a "hybrid storm" began due to interaction with the Jet Stream to her west. Despite strong wind shear and cooler air trying to wrap in, Sandy maintained a warm core, keeping her a hurricane as the system tracked northward paralleling the Florida coast. Several days before landfall, most computer models turned the system out to sea, as virtually all storms in her position do. However the pattern was complex, and the European model (ECMWF) correctly predicted an unusual turn west, slamming the now gigantic storm right into New England.

As it turned out, the ECMWF was right. Sand would re-intensify over the Gulf Stream as it continued to both feed off the clashing of cold air, warm tropical air, and was vented by the jet stream aloft. Shortly before landfall on the 29th near Atlantic City, Sandy had become a monster hybrid of a Hurricane and Winter storm.

This means that Sandy technically made landfall as an "extra-tropical", or "post tropical" storm, rather than a classic hurricane. This made for a confusing and muddled message, since Hurricane Warnings weren't technically up for the storm, despite the conditions being no different. The handoff and handling of the event was heavily criticized, and highlighted a common issue of the field being too smart for it's own good.

Massive winds lashed up and down the coastline, sustained over 80mph off shore. Tropical storm force winds reached dozens of states. Water rise along the coast ran anywhere from 8-15 feet above normal. Rainfall totals of 8 inches or more flooded inland areas, while sea water flooded the coastline. Piers were ripped away, homes were destroyed, cities were evacuated. Over 6 million people were left without power in the storms wake.

In all, 233 people lost their lives during the storm, 157 in the US. This made Sandy the deadliest hurricane since Katrina in 2005. The total damage from Sandy was 68 Billion dollars in the US, the second costliest on record at the time. It has since been surpassed by several storms, sitting at 8th today.

Sandy was the second largest storm in Atlantic Basin History, by measuring her TS force wind field. The storm also set many pressure records, as well as surge and wave records along the coast. Due to the massive destruction, Sandy was retired, and will never be used for another Atlantic Hurricane again. She was replaced with "Sara." That name last appeared on 2024s list, and will appear again in 2030.

If anything good came out of this, Sandy did spur meteorological computer upgrades. The American GFS model did not forecast the storm well, while the ECMWF was right several days out. I think that was more luck than anything else, but billions of dollars were spent on massive computing upgrades stateside, to make our models better. It's interesting to wonder with the suites of models we have in 2025, if Sandy would have been as much of a surprise as it was then.

29/10/2025

29/10/2025

Quick update on Melissa and your local Jacksonville weather

This morning Hurricane Melissa is a Category Two hurricane located about 45 miles NW of Guantanamo, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 105mph (could be lower with the next update). Melissa made landfall in Eastern Cuba just after 3am EST as a Category Three hurricane.

Land interaction with Cuba has weakened the storm a good bit, but like many former-monster hurricanes, Melissa has spread the energy wide, and now packs a very large swath of winds.

Melissa will move through the Turks & Caicos / Bahamas today as a weakened but still large and dangerous hurricane. She will continue to accelerate northward tonight and on Thursday. Her merging with an upper trough should increase wind shear and drier air, preventing any re-intensification. She is still expected to be a hurricane Thursday evening as she passes Bermuda, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. That will become a warning soon. She will be extra-tropical and no more by Friday night. It is virtually certain that this will be the last time you see an advisory for a "Melissa" as she will be retired in the spring of next year.

Damage reports out of Jamaica are starting to trickle in. I just continue to urge caution with what you see and share. There is a ton of AI generated and fake slop going around. Please double check a credible storm chaser or meteorologist is sharing the content, not some random click-farming page. AI technology has gotten very good and it's no longer easy to identify it at a glance.

In local news, a cold front is pushing through the FL Panhandle today. Fall weather is invading Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama this morning, with clearing skies and cooler weather. North Florida joins in after the front clears tonight. A few showers are likely overnight across Jax, but nothing heavy or long-lasting.

Today will be the warmest day in town until next week, with a high in the mid 70s. Thursday - Sunday highs will generally barely make it to 70 each day, with overnight lows in the 40s, low 40s N/W of town, low 50s at the beaches. Several dry, clear, beautiful days. Absolutely perfect trick-or-treat weather, and Florida-Georgia game weather! Enjoy!

29/10/2025

Late evening look at Melissa.

NHC re-upgrades to Category Four. Earlier recon found her far weaker than when she hit Jamaica, but the storm has been able to quickly recover. Very warm water and the last of the baroclinic assist from the trough capturing her has likely help perk it back up some.

It will landfall in a few hours in Eastern Cuba. More land interaction, combined with the trough capture, should induce more steady weakening over the next few days. It'll cross the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos as a hurricane on Wednesday, and will fly through Bermuda as a hurricane late Thursday night. Her impact there won't be long, but it could be nasty for a short period.

There remains no change to the overall track, it'll stay far away from the Eastern US. Melissa will be long gone Friday morning.

I haven't read too much from Jamaica as of yet. I know a few deaths were attributed to the pre-landfall part of the storm, mostly in preparation work. It will be quite awhile before we know the full scope and scale of the damage. I did see a credible chaser that managed to say the Black River area was hit very hard. Points just west of there probably saw the swath of extreme 150+mph winds. Allot of the communities hit hardest will be inaccessible for some time. It's just a reminder that just because your feed isn't flooded with damage today, doesn't mean it didn't happen or the storm was "overhyped". It just takes time. Trust me, the people hit the hardest there tonight, their priorities have "recording and uploading videos" about 305th on their list.