Pine Tree Weather

09/06/2025

MANY THANKS TO THOSE WHO SUPPORT THE MISSION... It's days like these that remind me why I do this. This is a great community of people here, and I am blessed to have you. Weather forecasting is complex, at times ungratifying, and the days can be very long. Your interactions and appreciation make the effort worth it. It's your support that keeps it going. It's an honor to have your trust to look after your best interests. Thank you again! - Mike

09/06/2025

Saturday 5 PM Update… Final of the day

09/06/2025

4 PM Saturday Update

09/06/2025

⚠️ EXPIRED - STORM REPORTS APPRECIATED

🚨BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Gray ME
348 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

The National Weather Service in Gray Maine has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Oxford County in western Maine...
Central Androscoggin County in southwestern Maine...
Northwestern Cumberland County in southwestern Maine...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 348 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bridgton,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Buckfield, Bridgton, Auburn, Otisfield, Harrison, Hebron, Turner,
Naples, Poland, Mechanic Falls, Minot, Oxford, Paris, Greene,
Lewiston, Casco, Hartford, Norway, Wales, and Sabattus.

This also includes...
Long Lake, Crocker Hill, Streaked Mountain, and Singepole Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4394 7062 4408 7078 4438 7036 4413 7007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 230DEG 30KT 4407 7062

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Palmer

09/06/2025

⚠️EXPIRED - STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA

🚨BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Gray ME
318 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

The National Weather Service in Gray Maine has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern York County in southwestern Maine...
South central Oxford County in western Maine...
West central Cumberland County in southwestern Maine...
Southeastern Carroll County in northern New Hampshire...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 318 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Effingham, or
near Ossipee, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Parsonsfield, Sebago, Baldwin, Effingham, Cornish, Hiram, Denmark,
Limerick, Ossipee, Porter, Limington, Standish, Newfield,
Wakefield, Brookfield, Brownfield, Freedom, and Wolfeboro.

This also includes...
Burnt Meadow Mountains, Douglas Mountain, and Mount Cutler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 7118 4400 7079 4378 7051 4358 7108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 235DEG 35KT 4368 7106

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Palmer

09/06/2025

SATURDAY AFTEROON September 6th 2:40 PM ...

09/06/2025

⚠️ CANCELLED - THREAT OVER

⚠️ SATURDAY September 6th 1:15 PM Update... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 8 PM...

According to the National Weather Service, the southern third of Oxford, Franklin, and Somerset Counties has a chance for storms, essentially from Route 2 south. Due to the antiquated system in place, all of those counties have a watch, which is somewhat excessive.

Isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging wind, hail, and the risk of isolated tornadoes are possible. Heavy rainfall may cause areas to experience flash flooding due to severe runoff from drought-stricken ground.

Please ensure that you have a way to receive alerts and take cover if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued. - Mike

09/06/2025

⚠️ ENDED

⚠️ Mesoscale Discussion 2042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 061556Z - 061730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is possible by early
afternoon. Issuance of one or more watches is likely.

DISCUSSION...Filtered heating is ongoing late this morning from
parts of NJ/eastern PA into parts of New England, to the east of a
substantial cloud shield and embedded weak convection. Morning
soundings depict generally poor midlevel lapse rates, but relatively
rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F) and
continued heating will result in MLCAPE increasing to the 1000-1500
J/kg range. Scattered surface-based storm development is expected as
soon as early afternoon, as a cold front begins to impinge upon this
destabilizing environment.

Deep-layer shear is already rather strong across the region, and
will continue to increase in response to a notable mid/upper-level
shortwave trough approaching the lower Great Lakes region. Initial
development may quickly evolve into a few supercells, though
deep-layer flow/shear roughly parallel to the front may eventually
result in a tendency toward storm clustering and possible QLCS
development. Some increase in low-level shear/SRH with time could
support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells,
especially where surface winds remain locally backed near a weak
surface wave that will traverse the front this afternoon. Isolated
hail may also occur with any supercells. Otherwise, scattered
damaging wind will become increasingly possible with time, as storm
coverage increases and low-level lapse rates steepen.

One or more watches will likely be issued by early afternoon in
order to cover these threats.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40787571 42387405 43467265 44817037 45396938 45596874
45246817 44116943 43467045 43057062 42057186 40337396
39707470 39517551 39407598 39657641 40097632 40787571

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Official link ► https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2042.html

Stay alert, updates through the afternoon. - Mike

09/06/2025

⚠️ THREAT OVER - ENDED

⚠️🌪️ SATURDAY September 6th - NOT FOR ALARMS BUT FOR AWARENESS...

The NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has increased the tornado risk for the southwestern areas of the state.

As I mentioned in my update this morning, storms that form are likely to exhibit rotation due to atmospheric spin. THIS MAY TRIGGER TORNADO WARNINGS. We don't get many of these here, but it's essential to know where your SAFE PLACE is in case it happens. The dynamics are cloud cover-dependent, meaning that if the sun comes out, look out.

TIMING is between 1:00 and 7:00.

HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER ALERTS and take action when necessary.

I will be monitoring and will post updates as needed.

Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. -Mike

09/06/2025

⚠️⛈️⚡🌪️ SATURDAY September 6th Update presented by Crowe’s Restoration...

This is one of the better severe storm setups we've seen this year. Cloud cover will determine how it unfolds. Heavy rainfall, damaging wind, hail, and the risk of a tornado are all on the discussion board. DETAILS one click away. I appreciate your support! - Mike

I am not one to sound alarms unless necessary. I despise model hype. Those who are simply looking to spread fear for clicks and shares are disingenuous and worthy to be blocked. I started my journey...

09/05/2025

🌦️ FRIDAY September 5th Update presented by Crowe’s Restoration...

A warm front passes through the region on Friday. Muggy conditions return and set the stage for strong-to-severe storm potential on Saturday. A FULL DISCUSSION on what to expect is one click away. I appreciate your support! - Mike

Before I get into it, a special thank you to my monthly Patreon donors, along with those who have sent checks and wired funds through VENMO and PayPal. I am grateful to my business partners, who are...

09/04/2025

🌵 Thursday September 4th DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE...

Severe drought has expanded over the west and east (Editor's note: the south should also be at that level, but I digress).

While rain is in the forecast into the weekend, it may not be enough to change the overall outlook. The long-term outlook isn't looking good for any improvement anytime soon.

REPORTS OF DROUGHT-RELATED ISSUES ARE NEEDED. You can message me with photos if you have any and observations. Please include your location!

If your well is dry or close to it, please report it to the Maine Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) ► https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/

Continue to conserve, be aware of wildfire potential, and pray for rain before ground freeze! 🙏🏼

- Mike