Pine Tree Weather

01/01/2026

❄️🌬️🥶 NEW YEAR’S DAY January 1st Update presented by Allspeed Cyclery & Snow...

NEW YEAR'S DAY... Where low pressure develops over the Gulf of Maine is still in question, but the general idea remains the same.

Confidence is high over the western interior and York County, where a coating to an inch of snow is the general theme. Further up the coast, between Portland and Belfast, is where it could go a bit higher or lower, depending on where and when the surface low gets its act together. The Winter Weather Advisory for the MidCoast and Bangor area continues until 7 PM.

This continues to be a DownEast dumper either way. The only subtle wrinkle in that is the potential for a brief period of junk and/or rain for the Cobscook / Passamaquoddy Bay region as the rapidly intensifying surface low slips just southeast of Grand Manan and tracks sharply northeast near Fredericton, New Brunswick. Snowfall rates of 1-2”+ per hour are possible as the low deepens. Expect this snow to blow around and drift overnight into Friday and into Saturday morning. The Winter Storm Warning continues through 7 PM.

There is also some uncertainty about totals over northern areas, as there is debate over whether a weak inverted trough will set up, and when and where the developing low will have its moisture hose cut off as it heads for the Gulf of St. Lawrence. At the very least, snow will blow around in The County. How much frozen precipitation makes the ground may be difficult to tell. The Winter Weather Advisory continues there until midnight.

FREEZER BURN WIND CHILL over the mountains and north overnight into Friday, where -25° or lower is possible with the passing storm hauling Arctic air in. Northwest wind gusts range 25-35 mph, with lesser speeds in areas shaded by the mountains through Friday morning and slowly diminish in the afternoon.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Repeated waves of energy aloft will pass through the area, reinforcing the cold air. Saturday is expected to be on the breezy side, which will keep wind chill values in the -10s over the interior to around +10s along the coast. A clipper may bring snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures continue to get colder through Tuesday morning.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INTO NEXT WEEK: Snow showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. An upper-level ridge tries to force its way into the region midweek, which may bring interior snow and coastal rain/mix, but it is too far out to get a fair read on it yet.

Happy New Year!

I appreciate each of you for your readership and financial support! - Mike

12/31/2025

🌬❄🥶 NEW YEAR'S EVE Wednesday December 31st Afternoon Update... BULLETINS POSTED

Following up on the discussion posted around 6 AM...

No real changes in thinking on potential snowfall amounts. This is a DownEast dumper, with the heavier amounts in southeastern Washington County, in the Calais/Eastport/Machias area. A foot or more of fluff is possible in that region.

As noted earlier, there is some uncertainty about where and when low pressure will develop over the Gulf of Maine. As you can see on the map, the difference in some areas potentially receiving 3-6" is relatively thin. Any shift west and earlier development means more snow to the south and east. Conversely, a delay in development to the east would reduce totals. Confidence as of Wednesday afternoon is moderate.

Snow-to-water ratios are still on track at 12 to 20:1. Another classic fluffernutter. Easy to move, but also easy to blow around, which is what it will do, New Year's night into Friday. Snow will blow and drift, reducing visibility and causing localized whiteouts.

In northern areas, this storm is expected to linger into Friday as it encounters a roadblock to the northeast of New Brunswick. Another inch or two of snow is possible on Friday before the storm weakens and slides east.

Bitter cold wind chills and temperatures on the back end will linger into the weekend and into next week.

For those travelling, prepare accordingly. - Mike

12/31/2025

❄️🌬️🥶 NEW YEAR'S EVE Wednesday, December 31, 2025 Update presented by Spinneys Restaurant & Lodging where your local escape awaits you after the holidays...

This is interesting. Models had it, bailed on it, and now it is back; the impacts aren't yet clear. I would not sleep on this one as it could overperform. A snowy, bitterly cold start to 2026, with details one click away. Stay tuned. - Mike

This idea came to mind a couple of days ago, then faded, and has now resurfaced. The lack of upper-level air data from key areas to the north may be evident in the pattern, so it will be essential to...

12/30/2025

🌬🥶❄ TUESDAY December 30th PM Update... OVERNIGHT COLD & NEW YEARS SNOW...

Thankfully we've escaped the junk storm with a limited amount of power outages. If you see ice and snow hanging on the trees where you are, it would be wise to think the threat for loss will continue until a warm up comes, which, if the meteorological voodoo is correct, may come around January 10th. Time will tell.

SHORT TERM... it's a three dog night for the interior as both actual temperatures and wind chills head for the rear end of the walk-in freezer. With opening day of ice fishing season on New Year's Day, this will help to add more ice thickness to the lakes and ponds.

NEW YEARS SNOW... Model ideas are spinning up a storm in the eastern region of the Gulf of Maine along the boundary of an Arctic front passing through New Year's Eve night. For those heading out for celebrations along the shorelines and the mountains, be advised of the risk of snow showers around the time of ball drop into the wee hours of New Year's Day. It also should be noted that ideas have shifted generation of the ocean low more to the west and sooner. If that trend continues, snow may be an issue for southern areas.

For now, Portland to Augusta to Bangor to Millinocket to Presque Isle may pick up an inch, with 3-6" possible for Bath to Rockland and northeastward to Danforth. Coastal Hancock (Bar Harbor, Ellsworth) and Coastal Washington Counties (Machias, Lubec, Eastport, Calais could end up in the 4-8" range, with potentially higher amounts depending changes in ideas.

This is another fluffernutter event given the next Arctic plume that is coming in.

WEEKEND: Interior areas should prepare for double-digit below zero actual low temperatures by Sunday morning and again on Monday.

NEXT STORM: Tuesday may bring our next system that could bring a decent shot of snow for the interior with the coast to be determined. Stay tuned.

I will update in the morning.

I appreciate each of you and thank you for the support! - Mike

12/29/2025

🌬🥶❄ MONDAY December 29th Evening Update presented by Crowe’s Restoration

WIND ADVISORY in effect for western and southern areas away from the shorelines. The wind will gradually increase overnight as the strong storm to the northwest of the region moves toward northeastern Quebec. It will hit a roadblock and reverse on Tuesday, gradually weakening. While the strong breeze is expected to diminish by Tuesday evening, breezy conditions continue into New Year’s Eve with bitter cold wind chills to start the final day of the year. Power outage concerns are elevated where ice has accumulated on trees and power lines.

SNOW SHOWERS are expected to break out as the cold front passes through the region this evening. Accumulations are expected to be light, with the mountains potentially picking up an inch or two overnight into Tuesday.

FLASH FREEZE AND BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY as temperatures fall below freezing. If you have snow or ice to deal with, take care of it tonight. Expect slick conditions to develop overnight into Tuesday morning, as any standing water may freeze quickly due to ground temperatures below freezing.

LIGHT SNOW FOR NEW YEAR’S EVE NIGHT into New Year’s morning ahead of an Arctic front moving in, sending the region into the freezer heading into the weekend. Most areas may see snow showers, with an isolated risk of squalls around the midnight ball drop. MidCoast areas up to Bangor may pick up an inch, DownEast shoreline areas may see fluffy accumulations in the 2-4” range.

I will get some rest tonight and provide an update at some point on Tuesday.

The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

Thank you, as always, for your readership and financial support! - Mike

12/29/2025

⚠️❄️🧊🌧️🌬️ MONDAY December 29th 5 AM Update presented by Crowe’s Restoration

JUNK STORM UNDERWAY...

ICE: The forecast remains on track for ¼ to ½” of ice for the western interior with locally higher amounts possible along the Route 5 corridor, extending eastward along Route 2 over into the Farmington area and south into Lewiston. The rest of the state can expect less than ¼” away from the shorelines, with trace amounts possible along the immediate coastline.

SNOW: The far north receives the heavy wet snow, with 2-6” of fresh slop that may mix with sleet, and then gets topped off with a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. This freezes overnight, turns to cement by morning, and snow showers will continue into Tuesday.

LIQUID EQUIVALENT amounts of precipitation continue to run between ¾ to 1¼” with the higher amounts south and east of the mountains. Precipitation will fall at varying intensities throughout the day, likely becoming heavier as the cold front moves into the area in the afternoon and evening.

AREAS OF FOG are possible, and some of it may be of the freezing fog and freezing drizzle variety. Freezing rain is bad enough, but where freezing fog and freezing drizzle form, ice accretion increases due to still air.

WIND increases from the southeast over the east and north in the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible through early evening. The wind picks up from the west/northwest over southern and western areas as the cold front passes through late afternoon, gradually increasing overnight into Tuesday. The speeds peak around early afternoon on Tuesday, then gradually decline overnight into Wednesday, settling by mid to late afternoon. We’re looking at roughly 36 hours of wind to contend with on the backside, and this is where the primary concern for power loss resides.

FLASH FREEZE AND BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY as temperatures fall below freezing.

EXPECT ICE OVER THE INTERIOR TO HANG AROUND INDEFINITELY. I see a hint of a potential warm-up toward the middle part of January. Time will tell if that becomes reality. Let’s hope so.

LOOKING AHEAD: The potential for an Arctic front enters the region on New Year’s Day. The wind may increase, and there is the potential for accumulating snow DownEast. Clipper systems are expected to continue through the first full week of January, bringing snow showers and a breeze. Time will tell if guidance changes its tune and spins up one of concern.

📲PLEASE USE mPING to report your weather. Junk storms and radar don’t agree. Ground truth matters. Report anonymously anytime, anywhere, as long as you can do so safely. Please download the app and familiarize yourself with it so you can use it. ► https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/

The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

Your reports and observations are always appreciated. Please let me know your location and the time of the observation.

For those who must travel, allow for plenty of extra time and take it easy. - Mike

12/28/2025

⚠️❄️🧊🌧️ SUNDAY December 28th PM Update... BULLETINS FINALIZED & THOUGHTS

This is a classic junk storm. All four precipitation food groups with a decent amount of each. I remain in the camp that this won’t be a significant concern, given the 12- to 14-hour window for snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain, and the chance of locally dense fog. It’s long enough to cause issues, but we’ve seen far worse than what we will get from this.

There may be locally moderate impacts, with heavy, wet snow and ice building on trees and power lines in the north. Expect a reasonable charge of frozen buckshot, also, with upwards of 1” of that, which may keep snow totals down.

Ice is more of an issue along the Route 5 corridor and in surrounding areas in the far western part of the state. Higher elevations (i.e., the ski hills) could pick up ~½” of ice.

My ideas for snow and ice posted in the Sunday morning update remain unchanged. You can check it out here ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/discussions/sunday-december-28-2025

For the DownEast coastal region not under any bulletin, I can’t rule out the risk of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and/or freezing fog at the onset as the warm nose works in. In these events, it's rare for cold air damming to persist along the shorelines east of Penobscot Bay.

For the rest of the state, I have three words: cold air damming. This is a nowcast rather than a forecast. The short-term model ideas and weather apps are not helpful for precipitation types, amounts, or temperatures at this point. The only use for them at this point is the timing of precipitation start and end.

For those travelling, expect slick conditions and allow for plenty of extra time to reach your destination.

The wind will pick up on the backside, where the risk of power outages is higher, Monday night into Tuesday. Where snow and ice stick, there is a risk.

PLEASE USE mPING to report your weather. Junk storms and radar don’t agree. Ground truth matters. Report anonymously anytime, anywhere, as long as you can do so safely. Please download the app and familiarize yourself with it so you can use it. ► https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/

BLACK ICE CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. All of this mess freezes up and stays frozen for several days. Hope you have plenty of salt and sand, and you may need ice cleats.

The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

I will share an update early Monday morning and look forward to your reports.

Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike

12/28/2025

⚠️❄️🧊🌧️ SUNDAY December 28th Update presented by Crowe’s Restoration in Arundel...

Follow the bouncing ball. Junk storms are what they are. Cold air damming prevails, regardless of what models suggest. I do a bit of a dive into two possible outcomes, where bust potential lurks, along with adjustments to precipitation amounts.

Thank you as always for your readership and financial support! - Mike

The forecast continues to be a bit of a quagmire that I will discuss, which is typical for junk storms. To calm some nerves of folks who may be on edge with this, I am not expecting major issues with...

12/27/2025

⚠️🧊 SATURDAY December 27th PM Update about ICE POTENTIAL...

I mentioned the issues with cold air damming in my earlier update. Sometimes you look at forecast temperature ideas and laugh. I’m there at this point. I expect all regions to deal with ice in areas away from the smell of sea salt.

Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for the west and south. It is important to note that the Saturday morning ideas have come in a bit more aggressively with freezing rain. I am concerned about Oxford County (Rangeley, Bethel, Fryeburg), the interior of York County, southern Franklin County, Androscoggin County, and the interior of Cumberland County. There is a chance that some or all of those areas may receive Winter Storm Warnings for ice at some point on Sunday.

To the north, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect, also for ice concerns. The snow amount idea for The County is still in the 1-3” range, but ice and sleet may erode that amount. Time will tell if NWS Caribou converts them to warnings or Winter Weather Advisories.

Eastern areas (Bangor, DownEast) should stay tuned. That region may escape most of this mess, given the timing of precipitation after sunrise. Daylight may help reduce some of the accretion, and a strong south/southeast wind may help wash out the low-level cold in the afternoon and bring up temperatures and plain rain.

In my earlier discussion, I mentioned the possibility of ½ to 1” of liquid here for the event. That remains the case. As of Saturday afternoon, ¼ to ½” of ice accretion is possible in interior western areas, with lesser amounts elsewhere. If there is snow on the trees in your region, you may want to stock up on supplies in case of power outages. With growing concerns about icing across the western interior, the risk of power outages has risen. Understand that this may not melt, and you’ll have to live with it for many days. The forecast remains on track for a rather stout northwest breeze on the backside of the storm for Tuesday.

Have plenty of salt and sand around. You’ll need it.

I will update in the morning. - Mike

12/27/2025

❄️🧊🌧️ SATURDAY December 27th update presented by Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland...

A few thoughts on the junk storm on the way for Monday. All areas could see some ice, but for how long? The ice that builds could hang around for a while. Power outage concerns are there as the wind picks up on Tuesday. - Mike

Anytime sleet and freezing rain are in the forecast, it signals one primary concern: cold-air damming. Forecast ideas struggle with it. The physics of weather modeling tends to favor freezing...

12/26/2025

🌬️🥶 FRIDAY December 26th Update presented by Spinneys Restaurant & Lodging...

An upper-level ridge pitching near the Manitoba/Ontario border runs into blocking to the east with a pair of upper-lows holding up progress. A surface low near Lake Superior heads southeast and is expected to bring Southern New York & Long Island 6-12" of snow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Aside from a chance snow shower overnight into Saturday morning in the York County region, associated with the system to the west, the area remains dry through the weekend.

The ridge to the west remains quasi-stationary until Sunday, when it is expected to advance northeastward as a warm front, entering the region Sunday night and continuing into Monday.

Three things that I am monitoring closely with the Monday system:

1. The strength and position of the weak high pressure to the north will be key to the cold air dam at the surface.

2. Strength and track of the inside runner that is expected to intensify over the Great Lakes while spinning the warm front through.

3. Potential for a secondary low to form over the Gulf of Maine that may throw a wrench into precipitation types, amounts, and duration.

What is consistent at this point is that Sunday night into Monday is likely to be a travel mess. It's too early to speculate on the amounts of various precipitation types, but all four food groups are on the discussion board. The pencil sketch on the cocktail napkin shows snow for the mountains and north, junk for the western foothills, and question marks for the eastern areas and shorelines.

One important consideration for planning and preparation is that any icing that forms and does not melt on Monday will persist for a while and may be an issue as the wind picks up, bringing breezy and cold conditions through Tuesday. Below-freezing temperatures are expected to continue into the New Year.

Stay tuned!

The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

Financial support for PTW to continue into Year 15 would be much appreciated. VENMO, PayPal, Patreon, and check mailing are the options ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/donate.html

Thank you for your support! - Mike

12/24/2025

🎄🌬️❄️🥶 WEDNESDAY December 24th Update presented by Allspeed Cyclery & Snow...

EXPECT SNOW TO BLOW AROUND PERIODICALLY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHRISTMAS EVE DAY: Snow from the Norlun ends by around Noon to 2 PM from northwest to southeast. The wind from the weak low will blow it around through late afternoon and diminish into the evening. The breeze may cause brief whiteouts where heavy snow fell overnight. High temperatures in the teens north to mid-30s along the coast are expected to fall around midday with wind chills in the single digits to teens by dark.

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT: No issues through the evening, and for those going to Midnight Mass will be able to get home with little to no impact. Snow from a clipper hits the Quebec border around 1 AM and heads eastward into the morning. A southwest breeze picks up along the shorelines and the mountains out ahead of it. Low temperatures range from the single digits north to the teens south.

CHRISTMAS DAY: The clipper moves across the state, bringing snow showers, primarily across the north and east, through early afternoon. An Arctic front approaches from behind the clipper, increasing winds and the risk of locally heavy afternoon snow showers and squalls across northern areas. With the northwest wind picking up, expect snow to blow around, which may cause brief whiteouts and slick spots in the afternoon and continue into the night. High temperatures range from around 20° in the far north to the mid-30s along the south coast, which will fall quickly with the wind in the afternoon.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: The northwest wind persists overnight, which continues to blow snow around, while temperatures drop to the cellar. Actual low temperatures fall below zero in the mountains, with single-digit readings above zero common along the coast. Wind chill values will reach freezer-burn levels in the -20s in the mountains and in the -10s over much of the region by Friday morning.

BOXING DAY FRIDAY: The northerly wind continues to blow snow around through the morning and then gradually settles in the afternoon. Expect below-zero wind chill values to persist in the north and slightly above-zero values along the coast throughout the day.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Southwestern areas may get a snow shower or flurry Saturday afternoon, with little to no accumulation. The next storm of widespread concern moves in on Sunday and into Monday. All four precipitation food groups are possible, with a potentially rough start to next week. Stay tuned for more on that.

The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

Financial support for PTW to continue into Year 15 would be much appreciated. VENMO, PayPal, Patreon, and check mailing are the options ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/donate.html

Your observations and reports are always appreciated!

Stay aware, stay updated, stay alert, and stay safe. Enjoy your holiday, and thank you for your support! Be blessed! - Mike