Pine Tree Weather

11/12/2025

🌥️🌦️🌨️ WEDNESDAY November 12th Update presented by Spinneys Restaurant & Lodging at Fort Popham, where oceanside cottages and a wood-fired sauna are in operation through the winter for a nearby escape. FMI ► https://www.spinneysmaine.com/

I wanted to provide a quick update this morning, as I was out late last night. What is left of the tropospheric polar vortex passes over the state today. It's turned into a large, disorganized gyre (atmospheric trash) that will spin a couple of waves through the region. Snow showers are expected for the interior, with rain showers possible for the MidCoast and DownEast areas. Wind direction out of the west/southwest will be a bit gusty through the morning, then diminishes in the afternoon.

The outlook for Thursday through Saturday is for the risk of snow showers in the mountains with mainly dry conditions elsewhere.

Guidance is coming into more agreement on a storm for the second half of the weekend that may offer a bit of everything.

Temperatures appear seasonably cool into next week.

The PTW Weather Wall has more details ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

I may post an update later today, depending on how the office treats me.

Have a great day, and thank you for your support! - Mike

11/11/2025

⚠Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1232 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

MEZ012-013-019>021-033-111815-
Southern Oxford-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Androscoggin-Southern
Franklin-Kennebec-Central Interior Cumberland-
1232 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025
..An area of heavy snow showers will affect southwestern Kennebec...
southern Oxford...Androscoggin and northwestern Cumberland
Counties...

At 1230 PM EST...An area of heavy snow showers was along a line
extending from near Waterford to near Turner...and moving east to
east-southeast at 15 MPH.

Locations impacted include...
Waterford, New Gloucester, Wales, Fayette, Livermore Falls, Stow,
Fryeburg, Lovell, Mount Vernon, Lewiston, Winthrop, Livermore, Leeds,
Auburn, Monmouth, Wayne, Harrison, Casco, Buckfield, and Otisfield.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 69 and 90.

This also includes...
Pleasant Mountain, Long Lake, Crocker Hill, Streaked Mountain, and
Singepole Ridge.

* Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a half mile in this
area of heavy snow showers.

Travel is not advised during these heavy snow showers. Rapid
visibility reduction and potentially slick roads may lead to
accidents. Consider delaying travel until the snow showers pass your
location. If traveling pull off to a safe location.

LAT...LON 4399 7014 4395 7027 4396 7049 4398 7075
4400 7099 4424 7099 4426 7061 4445 7033
4446 7023 4449 7012 4449 6998 4443 6991
4430 6989 4418 6996
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 276DEG 14KT 4413 7077 4429 7029
$$

JC

11/11/2025

🌤️🌬️❄️ VETERANS DAY Tuesday, November 11th Update presented by Allspeed located on Brighton Avenue in Portland. The mountains are making snow, so it is time to get ready to hit the slopes. Whether you need new gear or need service for what you have, Chris and the crew will take good care of you. It's easily accessible off Exit 47, with ample parking. Open Monday through Saturday, 10 AM to 6 PM. Check them out online at https://www.allspeed.com/

THANK YOU VETERANS... For those who have served, and to the spouses and families who have made sacrifices and continue to do so, may God bless you. I think of those in my family who served and fought in wars from the Revolution through Vietnam as I write out this post this morning. I appreciate each of you, and thank you again.

A CHILLY DAY FOR PARADES, so bundle up whether you are marching or watching. The northwest wind is expected to increase with gusts of 20-30 mph (elevations 30-45+) as the storm intensifies on its way to Labrador. The cold air intrusion will lower the ambient temperatures, knocking 5-15° off the actual. Temperatures start mild over eastern Maine, but will drop in the afternoon. Snow showers are likely in the mountains through the day.

SNOW SQUALL WATCH FOR THE AFTERNOON: The ingredients are there for potential squalls all the way to the coastline. With the early sunset, this raises concern for the evening drive on the major roadways. Gusty winds, a quick hit of snow (upwards of 1"), and reduced visibility and/or sudden whiteout conditions are all possible. If you get caught in a squall, reduce your speed, find a safe place well off the road, turn on your four-way hazard lights, and wait for conditions to improve.

STORM WATCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY: It's too early to nail down specifics, but there is a chance for interior snow and coastal rain. There is wide disagreement with ensemble ideas, with roughly 25% of 150+ ideas showing no impact at all. The doubt is coming in has to do with an upper-low forming later in the week that drifts into the Canadian Maritimes and retrogrades back towards Maine ahead of a ridge approaching from the west. It's a somewhat unusual setup. Stay tuned!

The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

Have a great day, and thank you for your support! - Mike

11/10/2025

⚠🌬❄ MONDAY November 10th EVENING Update... BLACK ICE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL on VETERANS DAY...

BLACK ICE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...

WESTERN MOUNTAINS: A hit of sloppy wet snow and/or sleet is possible on the backside of the storm as it passes through the region on its way to Labrador. The storm intensifies as it moves out and will bring cold air in from the northwest. Any combination of wet snow/rainfall that does not dry out in time is likely to freeze and will create areas of black ice.

AREAS OF PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS, PARKING LOTS, SIDEWALKS, DRIVEWAYS, ETC. are also subject to black ice *IF* it does not dry out in time. From what I can see, a good portion of the area has received ¼-¾"+ rainfall as of 2 PM, with more falling. As the precipitation ends from south to north overnight, cold air funnels in. I don't expect this to be a big issue, but anytime there is water with rapidly falling temperatures, there is a chance.

SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL FOR VETERANS DAY TUESDAY...

I am going to nerd out a bit here and present what is known as a SKEW-T diagram, which provides a horizontal view of the atmosphere from the surface to the stratosphere. This is from the HRRR model run from 7 AM (12z) Monday. This shows the key ingredients for snow squalls... enough "convective spice" as noted by surface-based, mixed-layer, most-unstable, and downdraft versions of convective available potential energy (CAPE), along with steep temperature lapse rates and sufficient moisture aloft to create snow. The steep temperature lapse rates increase wind gust potential, using it as a playground slide to deliver wind aloft to the surface.

The sun is poison in this situation, much like it is in summer, with similar elements present. BE AWARE that when the sun is out, the squall guns may come out. Gusty winds, reduced visibility from localized areas of heavy snow, and slick spots. If you get caught in a squall, reduce your speed, find a safe place well off the road, turn on your four-way hazard lights, and wait for conditions to improve.

Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike

11/10/2025

🌧️🌬️❄️ MONDAY November 10th Update presented by Crowe’s Restoration is Arundel. Whether it is recovery from fire or water damage, or dealing with mold or a biohazard situation, Crowe's is there to help, offering 24/7 service statewide and for Seacoast New Hampshire.

MONDAY - Low pressure near Long Island, NY, tracks northeast, passes over Bangor around 7 PM, and intensifies on its way to Labrador by Tuesday morning. Scattered showers with areas of fog and seasonably mild temperatures as the region sits in the warm sector for much of the day. The north and east can expect breezy conditions with wind gusts in the 20-25mph range, which will gradually diminish throughout the day. A risk of a rumble of thunder is also possible for Rockland to Fort Kent eastward.

MONDAY NIGHT - As low pressure splits through the state, cold air enters the region, changing falling liquid to snow in the mountains, with rain showers tapering off elsewhere. With the intensifying system departing, the northwest wind begins to pick up. NOTE for overnight travelers: Some patchy black ice is possible in areas with standing water in the southern and western regions overnight. Low temperatures range from the 20s to 30s in the south and east, with temperatures in the 30s to 40s in the north and east.

TUESDAY - A gusty northwest wind increases as the storm bombs out to the northeast, ranging from 20-30 mph statewide with higher gusts in the mountains. Snow showers continue in the mountains through the day, tapering off by evening. High temperatures range from around freezing in the mountains to around 40° south. Eastern areas start off on the mild side in the 40s, but will see temperatures drop in the afternoon. Wind chills in the teens to 20s are expected everywhere by nightfall.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: With the tropospheric polar vortex passing overhead, below normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Weak clippers may bring snow showers to the mountains and north, but no storms are forecasted through Saturday. There is potential for a storm in the Sunday to Monday timeframe, but it is currently model noise and lacks consistency at this point.

Your observations are always appreciated!

Have a great day and thank you for your support! - Mike

11/09/2025

❄️🧊🌧️ SUNDAY November 9th Update presented by Allspeed Cyclery & Snow located on Brighton Avenue in Portland. The mountains are making snow, so it is time to get ready to hit the slopes. Whether you need new gear or need service for what you have, Chris and the crew will take good care of you. It's easily accessible off Exit 47, with ample parking. Open Monday to Saturday, 10 AM to 6 PM. Check them out online at https://www.allspeed.com/

I am not going to make a mountain out of a mole hill with this one. It's a nuisance but not a PITA.

SUNDAY - Outflow has arrived a bit early, which brings the risk of rain showers along the coast and light ice/elevation snow in the western mountains. Ice may accumulate on the higher hilltops. Given the limited amount of precipitation, I don't anticipate travel concerns during the day. An easterly breeze will pick up, giving the shorelines a raw feel. High temperatures range from around freezing over the north and mountains to around 50° for the south coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT - After dark, the temperatures cool down. NWS Caribou has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for The County and the Great North Woods, warning of potential ice glazing on roads overnight as precipitation is expected to arrive after 7 PM. Warmer temperatures are expected to rise in the western mountains overnight, with readings around 40° for the valleys by 7 AM Monday.

MONDAY - The storm intensifies as it splits the state and heads towards Quebec City and the Saguenay region of eastern Quebec. There may be a few stubborn cold pools at the surface over the north on Monday morning, but those should dissipate as an easterly wind brings in warm air. Rain showers continue throughout the day and could be locally moderate to heavy in some areas. A cold front approaches in the afternoon, which may bring a bit of ice as a parting gift in the Rangeley region heading into the evening. Precipitation exits in the far north by around midnight Tuesday.

PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, as any standing liquid on the roads is likely to freeze as temperatures tumble into the 20s. The northwest breeze picks up, which will help dry the roads out at the onset. Windchills are likely to be in the teens at the bus stop in that region.

Your observations are always appreciated, with time and location.

Be blessed, and thank you for your support! - Mike

11/08/2025

🌤️ SATURDAY November 8th Update presented by Crowe’s Restoration in Arundel. Whether it is recovery from fire or water damage, or dealing with mold or a biohazard situation, Crowe's is there to help, offering 24/7 service statewide and for Seacoast New Hampshire.

SATURDAY - The warm front that passed through early this morning brings seasonably mild temperatures with partial sunshine. A westerly breeze helps warm things up through midday. A weak cold front passes through in the afternoon, cooling things down as the wind shifts to the northwest. Wind gusts range from 15 to 25 mph. High temperatures range from the upper 40s along the Quebec border to the low 60s along the south coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT - The sky clears away from the mountains, and the wind diminishes. Overnight lows range from the teens in the Allagash region to the low to mid-30s along the shorelines.

THE NEXT ONE...

Clouds increase Sunday with an east/northeast breeze picking up through the day. Outside of a chance of an outflow shower in the mountains, the daylight hours are precipitation-free.

A neutral trough that has set up a weak area of low pressure to the south of New England rides along it. The low is in the early stages of development and consequently does not have much to offer in terms of precipitation amounts.

A cold air damming signal has been present for the past couple of days, and it continues, but it is not alarming. The high to the north is on the weaker side, and with the low on track to enter Penobscot Bay/DownEast areas and track north, I don't expect any surprises with this one. Temperatures are marginal, varying by a degree or two Celsius, in the higher elevations. The east-northeast wind flow off the ocean brings in warmth from the 50° water.

This is another progressive system. Precipitation begins overnight Sunday and continues through Monday, ending for most areas Monday night. Snow showers in the mountains are expected to continue into Tuesday.

The bottom line is that this is more of a nuisance event for the interior. I don't expect any issues, except for a few slick spots, which are possible on Monday morning, especially closer to the Quebec border. Snowfall appears minimal, with the Allagash region potentially picking up an inch or two that will wash away. Some light ice is possible in the transition, but that will melt away as temperatures rise.

Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts are generally expected to run between ¼-½" through Monday morning, with an additional ¼-½" possible in the form of rain through Monday night.

Below-normal temperatures with weak clippers passing through are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the week, bringing snow showers to higher elevations and light rain showers to the valleys.

I will update again on Sunday morning.

Your observations are always appreciated.

Have a great day, and thank you for the support! - Mike

11/07/2025

🌤️🌧️❄️ FRIDAY November 7th Update presented by Allspeed Cyclery & Snow located on Brighton Avenue in Portland. The mountains are making snow, so it is time to get ready to hit the slopes. Whether you need new gear or service on it, Chris and the crew will take good care of you. It's easily accessible off Exit 47, with ample parking.

Quick update this morning. I spent time with my youngest daughter last night, which was needed and appreciated, so I am a bit late out of the gate.

The system passing through the Great Lakes loses some juice as it moves eastward. The thing with these fast-moving systems, which operate with a positive or neutral trough, is that there isn't much to them. The mountains and north may pick up an inch or two of snow, and for most of the rest of the region, less than ¼" of rainfall by daylight Saturday morning.

On that note, the next system on the way Sunday into Monday works off a trough of a more neutral nature. The upside for precipitation is that since the trough runs deeper, the moisture feed is better. The general idea of ½-1" of liquid equivalent is the sketch on the cocktail napkin for now, but given its neutrality, it will be more likely to rain than snow. The cold air comes in from the backside as the trough becomes negative and the surface low intensifies, eventually hitting Newfoundland. This brings snow showers to the north and mountains as a participation trophy.

Notice the trend? This is what we dealt with last winter, and it is also why we are currently dealing with the drought. We need negatively tilted troughs to bring precipitation makers here, period. It's frustrating.

Depending on my day, I try to drop a bit more insight, but that is it in a nutshell.

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST and MIDCOAST shorelines as astronomical high tides peak. The forecast high water in Portland is 11.8', where the minor flood stage is at 12'. A bit of onshore wind is all it takes for minor flooding, which is all that would result from it. Seas are running 2-4', which may cause localized splashover, if at all.

PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/weather-wall.html

The Snow/Ice Outlook page is back for winter ► https://www.pinetreeweather.com/snow--ice-outlook.html

Have a great day, and thank you for your support! - Mike

11/06/2025

🌵 THURSDAY November 6th DROUGHT UPDATE...

Recent rainfall has had little impact on alleviating the ongoing drought. I've mentioned May 2024 as the start point of the drought, and the image of the 18 months before that and the 19 months after that shows the difference.

639 dry wells have been reported to the Maine Emergency Management Agency (MEMA), which appears to be a conservative number given the conditions. If your well is low or out, please report it ► https://maine-dry-well-survey-maine.hub.arcgis.com/

The forecast is not good. The short- and long-term outlooks favor near-average precipitation amounts, which require a period of well-above-normal rainfall for conditions to change. Ground freeze is coming soon. We could start the growing season in 2026 with a rainfall deficit unless we get buried this winter, which is what we can hope for, but appears unlikely at this point.

Reports of what you are experiencing are appreciated.

- Mike

11/06/2025

🌬️🍂🌨️🌤️ THURSDAY November 6th Update presented by Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland. If you need an FAA-licensed drone to inspect your roof or property, prepare for a sale, or for a special event, get in touch with Billy...

THIS CURRENT STORM TURNED INTO A BRONX CHEER, and I am not impressed. Hopefully, this is a one-off and not a trend. Models overcooked this one, and it's frustrating. Total underperformance in precipitation amounts, as far as I can see. Please let me know your observations on rainfall/snowfall amounts, wind speeds, and any other notable observations.

BREEZY CONDITIONS persist through the day. The storm to the east is gearing up to slam into Newfoundland by the evening. The breeze settles down overnight and shifts to the southwest, picking up again on Friday.

SNOW SHOWERS continue for the western mountains through the day, where a few inches remain possible for the higher peaks.

LIGHT SNOW (NORTH) / LIGHT RAIN (SOUTH) FRIDAY NIGHT as a weak clipper passes through. Another one approaches Saturday afternoon, which may bring the risk of a shower along the Quebec border.

STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... I don't trust the operational ideas at this point, as they have been inconsistent, but the ensembles show potential for something brewing. A coastal hugger scenario brings rain to the coast and raises questions about the type of precipitation over the interior. Track and intensity to be determined.

Stay tuned.

Have a great day, and thank you for your support! - Mike

11/05/2025

🌬🍂 WEDNESDAY November 5th PM Update...

WIND ADVISORY for the Southwest and MidCoast regions... The approaching system is a bit slower in development, which has reduced the strength of the low-level jet just enough for most of the region to escape the worst of the wind. However, the more populated areas of the state could see the higher gusts.

The higher gusts occur during the overnight hours, creating a travel hazard for night owls on the roads. Tree debris will fly, and a few limbs could come down, which creates both travel concerns and the risk of power loss. Expect windy conditions on the Maine Turnpike and 295 for the morning drive. The wind gradually settles on Thursday morning into the afternoon.

The northwest breeze takes a brief break on Thursday night, then returns from the south on Friday with gusts, before settling down on Saturday afternoon. We could see another round of wind Sunday night into Monday.

SNOW... The idea of snow at higher elevations in the mountains continues, where the higher peaks could see several inches, with lesser amounts in the valleys. In typical mid-fall fashion, it's a timing game of the arrival of dynamic cooling aloft that dictates accumulation rates. As I mentioned in my earlier website post, it would not surprise me if some pockets of sleet mixed in, and eastern areas potentially seeing enough flakes on the grass Thursday morning.

LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST posted earlier on the website remains on track. The western mountains and eastern areas are on track for ½-1"+ with lesser amounts north of Katahdin/Houlton and for the southwest interior.

Travel safe and have a good evening! - Mike

11/05/2025

🌧️❄️🌬️🍂 WEDNESDAY November 5th Update presented by Spinneys Restaurant & Lodging where the wood-fired sauna is burning and the beach is there all for yourself...

This is an interesting system that is on the way. Elevation snow, rain, potential for some sleet pockets, and another round of wind. I break it all down on the website, one click away. Thank you for your support! - Mike

An area of low pressure passes through the Great Lakes and heads to Maine. The storm will intensify as it travels eastward. This pattern is similar to what the region experienced last fall and...