Jay's Wintry Mix

Jay's Wintry Mix Weather Discussion mixed with fun for DC area with Loudoun as home base! Unhealthy passion for snow! I am not a meteorologist but more of passer of weather info.

For more in depth weather stuff--follow me on https://www.patreon.com/c/JaysWintryMix

If you scroll through the latest gfs you will see multiple chances after January 20 with bigger type southern storms. Yo...
01/12/2026

If you scroll through the latest gfs you will see multiple chances after January 20 with bigger type southern storms. You should be super interested in the Jan 20 to early February window!

Lunch with the Euro. This is how much precip the 12z euro has for the southeast between Jan 23 and Jan 27.šŸ•µļøā€ā™€ļøšŸ¤”
01/12/2026

Lunch with the Euro. This is how much precip the 12z euro has for the southeast between Jan 23 and Jan 27.

šŸ•µļøā€ā™€ļøšŸ¤”

Despite the disaster unfolding for this Thursday, the european ensembles for the next 2 weeks had their snowiest map of ...
01/12/2026

Despite the disaster unfolding for this Thursday, the european ensembles for the next 2 weeks had their snowiest map of the season. So if you are willing to kick the can with me, we will keep getting opportunities to score.

I was always skeptical of the storm for Jan 15-16 but i didnā€™t expect it to implode this bad in just 24 hours. The only ...
01/12/2026

I was always skeptical of the storm for Jan 15-16 but i didnā€™t expect it to implode this bad in just 24 hours. The only model that never had one tease over the past 5 days was the Canadien model lol. It was an emphatic no every run and was ignored

La NiƱa and snow hate us.

If we wiff on these next 2 storm chances which is certainly on the tableā€¦it looks like we will have additional opportuni...
01/12/2026

If we wiff on these next 2 storm chances which is certainly on the tableā€¦it looks like we will have additional opportunities. I know I took a little heat posting that crazy snow map but that is looking like a viable window

I can guarantee you one thing. Wind!
I forgot how much I missed dry arctic wind!

Btwā€¦.glad the eagles rested their starters. That really helped them stay in rhythm!

As of right now, the big snowstorm potential the GFS was showing to no one's surprise has decreased but its not complete...
01/11/2026

As of right now, the big snowstorm potential the GFS was showing to no one's surprise has decreased but its not completely dead. However, it doesn't meant that we cant see some decent snow from that system Thursday/Friday.

So i think there is a good chance that we can at least shoot for a minor to moderate event or two in the next 4-8 days.

While the models try to figure out next weekā€¦the 00z euro cooked up something for late January that was probably the cr...
01/11/2026

While the models try to figure out next weekā€¦the 00z euro cooked up something for late January that was probably the craziest thing Iā€™ve ever seen watching models

The run ended with a snowstorm that had already dropped 2 feet of snow and looking at the mapsā€¦there was probably another 1-2 feet left to go lol. Itā€™s like the euro company hired me and let me make my dream mapšŸ˜‚. And yes it will likely be gone next run because they just fired me! And yes i know i broke the unwritten fantasy map rule!

But in reality ā€¦the ensembles between now and the end of January are showing their snowiest look yet this season. So hopefully one or more of these threats pan out. They dont have too. Itā€™s hard getting a snowstorm. Will update around noon.

Tonight is a big night of model runs. Fresh dataComing in. One thing Iā€™ve come to realize is that whatever model has the...
01/11/2026

Tonight is a big night of model runs. Fresh data
Coming in. One thing Iā€™ve come to realize is that whatever model has the least amount of snow will likely win whether itā€™s the mighty euro or the mediocre gfs.

Itā€™s been very difficult to get widespread snowstorms in these la Ninaā€™s. And there have been so many Ninaā€™s since 2016.

So while we have a chance ,the best approach will be to hope for the best and be prepared for disappointment. I just hope we know sooner than getting a rug pull 48 hours out.

But all we can ask for a is a pattern that can give us swings. And it is also super fun to see digital snow on the map! No matter how fantasy it is!

By the wayā€¦.todays forecast was nearly perfect. Start time..end time. Amounts. And we has plenty of notice. Just donā€™t get too used it it.

Looks like the rain is wrapping up. How much did you end up getting! That was a true soaker!As far as the chance for a b...
01/10/2026

Looks like the rain is wrapping up. How much did you end up getting! That was a true soaker!

As far as the chance for a big storm weekā€¦be hopeful because the players are on field but be very skeptical because a bunch of perfect things have to occur for those players to come together to create the kind of storm we want.

Oh goodnessThe 12z gfs shows a big snowstorm but until Dr no(European) says yesā€¦.its hard to get excited.At the very lea...
01/10/2026

Oh goodness
The 12z gfs shows a big snowstorm but until Dr no(European) says yesā€¦.its hard to get excited.
At the very leastā€¦its fun being able to track something outside of a clipper lol

Radar updateHeavy rain(areas in yellow) for a while A big ā€œwhat ifā€ storm right?
01/10/2026

Radar update
Heavy rain(areas in yellow) for a while
A big ā€œwhat ifā€ storm right?

Here it comesAnd yes I saw the 00z gfs last night. Very little support for the 15-20 inches it showed for Jan 15. But we...
01/10/2026

Here it comes
And yes I saw the 00z gfs last night. Very little support for the 15-20 inches it showed for Jan 15. But we will keep watching that time period.

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