11/16/2025
🌡️ 6–10 Day U.S. Temperature Outlook (Nov 21–25, 2025)
Here is a deep dive into what this map is telling us for the entire United States as we head toward the week of November 21–25. This is from the Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature probability outlook, which is basically a heads-up on how likely it is that temperatures run above or below what is considered normal for this time of year.
First, what this map actually shows. The colors do not show exact temperatures. They show the odds that the period as a whole will average warmer or colder than normal. Red shades mean a tilt toward above-normal temperatures. The darker the red, the stronger the odds that the 6–10 day average will end up warmer than the 30-year normal for late November. Blue shades mean a tilt toward below-normal temperatures, with darker blue meaning a stronger cold signal. The white or gray areas in between are places where the models are not clearly favoring above or below, so near-normal is the most likely outcome. This outlook is for the average of all days from Friday the 21st through Tuesday the 25th, not for any single day and not for specific highs and lows.
Now the big picture. The most obvious feature is the very large red area that covers most of the central and eastern United States. From Texas and the Gulf Coast all the way up through the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and into New England, the map is solidly in the above-normal category. Many of these areas are shaded in darker reds, which means forecasters see a high chance that the overall period will come in warmer than what you would typically expect in late November. In some spots over the Southeast and parts of the Tennessee Valley, the shading is about as deep as it gets, which means the warm signal is very strong there.
What does that mean in plain language for the eastern two-thirds of the country. It does not mean record heat and it does not mean every single day will feel warm. It means that when you add up the highs and lows from the 21st through the 25th and compare them to normal, the odds heavily favor that the period comes out on the warm side. Normal late-November highs for many places east of the Rockies are in the 40s and 50s. With this pattern, many spots are likely to spend more time in the 50s and 60s, and in the Deep South some 70s are on the table. Nights may also be milder than they would usually be in late November, so freezes may be less frequent than normal for that stretch, especially in the Southeast and Gulf states.
The reason for this warm signal is the overall shape of the jet stream. The outlook is based on computer models that show a ridge of high pressure building over the eastern half of the country. A ridge is a bulge northward in the jet stream, and under a ridge the air is usually more stable and sinks slowly. Sinking air compresses and warms, and it also tends to keep skies a bit calmer. At the same time, the flow around that ridge allows winds at the surface and aloft to pull milder air northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical Atlantic. The result is a broad zone of above-normal temperatures that stretches from the southern Plains to the East Coast.
While the East is warming, the West is doing the opposite. Over the Pacific Coast and interior West, especially California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and parts of the northern Rockies, the colors shift to light and medium blue. That indicates an increased chance of below-normal temperatures there. The jet stream over that region is expected to dip southward into a trough. A trough is a southward dip in the jet stream that tends to support rising motion, more clouds, and openings for cooler air to slide in from higher latitudes or from over the colder Pacific waters. In practical terms, that can mean cooler daytime highs, colder nights, and a better chance for unsettled weather like rain along the coast and rain or snow in the mountains, depending on elevation.
Between the strong warm signal in the East and the cool signal in the West, there is a transition zone where colors are lighter or closer to white. This includes parts of the central and northern Rockies and some of the desert Southwest. These areas may see temperatures that bounce around more, with some warmer days and some cooler days, averaging closer to typical values for the time of year. Small changes in the position of the ridge and trough can make a big difference here, which is why the probabilities are lower and the colors are less intense.
A really important point for anyone looking at this map. It does not tell you by how many degrees temperatures will be above or below normal. A darker red area does not necessarily mean it will be blazing hot. It simply means there is more confidence that the “above normal” category will win out over the “near normal” or “below normal” categories. For example, an area shaded in deep red might end up just 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average, but it is very likely to be on that warm side most days of the period. Likewise, a blue area could be just a few degrees below normal yet still be firmly in the below-normal category. The outlook is all about odds, not exact numbers.
For people planning ahead nationally, here is what this pattern usually means in everyday terms. For most of the eastern and central United States, early winter chill is likely to ease a bit during this stretch. Folks may find it more comfortable for outdoor activities, holiday travel preparations, or any late-season yard work. Heating demand could be somewhat lower than usual for a few days in those regions. For the West, cooler than normal conditions can enhance the chance for early season snowfall in the higher elevations, and cooler days along the coast may come with more clouds, showers, or passing systems depending on how the storms track. Travel over higher mountain passes could be impacted if storms line up just right, even though this map by itself does not show precipitation.
Another key reminder is that a 6–10 day outlook is not a guarantee. There can still be individual days that buck the trend. Even in a warm pattern, a strong cold front can briefly knock temperatures back down in some areas. Even in a cool pattern out West, there can be short-lived breaks with sunshine and slightly milder air. This product is meant to show the most likely overall flavor of the pattern, not the detailed day-by-day forecast. Local National Weather Service offices and day-to-day forecasts will fill in the details on exact temperatures, timing of fronts, and any rain or snow.
To sum it up in one sentence without losing the detail. The atmosphere between November 21 and 25 is strongly favoring a classic split pattern, with a warm ridge dominating most of the central and eastern United States and bringing a high chance of above-normal temperatures there, while a cooler trough over the West increases the odds of below-normal temperatures and more unsettled weather on that side of the country, with a narrow transition zone in between where conditions stay closer to typical late-November levels.
National Weather Watch will keep tracking this pattern and future outlooks as we get closer, and we will update you if the ridge in the East or the trough in the West shifts, strengthens, or weakens in a way that changes the temperature story for any part of the country.
