08/04/2025
🌩 MONDAY WEATHER HEADS-UP – AUG 4, 2025
Alright folks, here’s what’s cooking in the sky today—and tonight—for a big chunk of the central U.S.
🟡 SLIGHT RISK (Yellow Area)
If you’re in parts of eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska, northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas, and southwest South Dakota, there’s a better-than-average chance you’ll see some strong to severe storms later today into tonight.
We’re talking:
• ⚠️ Big hail (possibly golf ball size or larger)
• 💨 Strong wind gusts (50–70+ mph possible)
• 🌪️ A very low chance of a brief tornado (nothing major expected, but worth watching)
🔸 CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WY/NE/SD/CO/KS)
🌡️ Hot, unstable air is building today, especially in areas near the mountains and higher terrain. That heat helps “fuel the fire” so to speak.
🌬️ Winds up higher in the sky are strong and coming from the northwest. That helps tilt and spin storms, which increases the risk for supercells (the rotating kind of storm that can drop hail or spin up a tornado).
🌦️ Storms will likely start this afternoon and early evening, then become more widespread and turn into clusters overnight, especially over western and central Nebraska and northeast Colorado.
💥 These clusters can bring damaging wind gusts as they roll east into the night.
🔸 SOUTHEAST CO / OK & TX PANHANDLES
This area is more hit or miss, but if something does pop, it could pack a punch.
🌡️ We’re seeing very unstable air—lots of fuel for storms. If one manages to form along the mountains or a surface boundary, it could be:
• A rotating storm
• Dropping large hail
• Pushing out strong winds
• Possibly spinning up a quick tornado right around sunset
But—big but—the chance of anything forming in the first place is low. If it does, though, it’ll likely be strong.
🔸 MONTANA & NORTHERN ROCKIES
Up in western and central Montana, storms are likely to form off the mountains by mid-afternoon. The setup supports some organized clusters and maybe a rotating storm or two.
Expected threats:
• 💨 Strong downburst winds
• 🧊 Some hail
Storms should move east into the evening hours, but they might be a bit more scattered and not as intense overall as down south.
📊 Storm Outlook Summary:
• Slight risk = conditions are favorable for severe storms, but they won’t be everywhere.
• Tornado risk = 2% in a few spots (low, but not zero).
• Wind and hail = higher threat today, especially hail in NE/CO/KS area.
🎥 I’ve attached a few outlook GIFs (wind, hail, tornado, etc.) so you can see exactly what the SPC is watching today. Definitely worth keeping an eye on radar later today if you’re in any of these zones.
Let me know if you have questions, and I’ll keep watching the models and updates.
Stay safe, friends!
