National Weather Watch

07/18/2025

Dear sun☀, we know you a real one... You don't have to keep it 100 anymore 😭

07/16/2025

🌩 Severe Weather Outlook – Wednesday, July 16, 2025 🌩
📍 Issued 12:36 AM CDT by the Storm Prediction Center
🌀 Forecasters: Hart/Thornton
📅 Valid through 7 AM Thursday

Heads up if you live in the Central Plains, Great Lakes, or Ohio Valley—scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are on tap for this afternoon and evening. Let’s break it down simply:

🟡 Two Main SLIGHT RISK Areas Today:

🔹 Eastern Nebraska, Northeastern Colorado, & Southeast Wyoming
🔹 Northern Illinois, Southern Wisconsin, and Western Michigan

These areas could see damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes.

🧭 Region-by-Region Breakdown:

🔸 🟠 Central High Plains (CO/WY/NE)
• Storms fire up this afternoon near the mountains, moving into the Plains.
• Backed surface winds + stronger winds aloft = supercell potential.
• Main risks: Large hail and damaging winds.

🔸 🟠 Upper Midwest & Great Lakes (WI/IL/MI)
• A leftover storm system (MCV) from overnight moves through with daytime heating fueling storm redevelopment.
• Expect strong storms to build and push east into MI this evening.
• A few tornadoes are possible, especially near the MCV.
• Damaging winds are the main threat, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

🔸 🟢 Ohio Valley & Northeast (OH/PA/WV/NY)
• Weak wind fields and poor lapse rates = more limited severe threat, but still some gusty storms could develop.
• We’re watching for isolated wind damage, but the risk here stays marginal.

🌪 Tornado Risk:
• 2% chance in both the WI/IL region and parts of eastern CO/western NE.
While low, any tornado threat deserves attention—these can spin up quickly near storm boundaries.

💨 Damaging Wind Threat:
• Highest chance (15%) from Southern WI into Northern IL and Southwest MI.
• Another broad 5%+ zone stretches from the Plains through the Ohio Valley.

🧊 Hail Threat:
• Central High Plains (CO/WY/NE border) again stands out—15% chance for hail, especially near any supercells.

📊 [See the attached graphics for visual details from the SPC:
✔️ Categorical Outlook
✔️ Tornado Probability
✔️ Wind Outlook
✔️ Hail Outlook]

💬 Stay weather-aware today, especially if you’re under a SLIGHT RISK zone. Have multiple ways to get warnings. If storms hit your area, seek shelter indoors and avoid windows.

📡 I’ll be posting radar updates and storm tracks throughout the day—stay tuned and stay safe! 👀⚠️

07/15/2025

07/15/2025

Every day we get closer to pumpkin pie and scary movies.

07/15/2025

🌩️ [7/15/25] Severe Weather Update – Damaging Winds, Hail & Isolated Tornadoes Possible

We’ve got a dynamic severe weather setup today stretching from the central Plains through the Upper Midwest. Here’s what to expect:

🟠 ENHANCED RISK (Level 3/5): Central Nebraska
• Main Threats: Scattered damaging winds (some 75+ MPH), large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
• Timing: Late afternoon into evening.
• Details: Storms will likely fire near a front and evolve into a powerful bowing line capable of widespread wind damage. Some gusts could be significant in central Nebraska.

🟡 SLIGHT RISK: Wyoming to Michigan
• Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan: Thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and track eastward, starting as isolated supercells (with large hail potential) and quickly forming into a damaging wind-producing line.
• Wyoming: Thunderstorms could quickly organize into a cluster capable of producing damaging winds and some hail, especially near Yellowstone and northeastward.

🌪️ Tornado Risk: LOW
• A 2% tornado risk exists for both central Minnesota/northern Iowa and northern Wisconsin/U.P. of Michigan. A brief tornado is possible in early storm development stages.

💨 Wind Risk: HIGH
• 30% wind risk over Nebraska. The biggest concern today is strong to severe wind gusts, especially with fast-moving clusters later today.
• A broader area of 15% wind risk stretches from Colorado to the Great Lakes.

🌨️ Hail Risk:
• Hail is possible throughout the Slight Risk zones. Initial storms could produce hail before transitioning into wind-driven clusters.

🌵 Arizona Note:
• High-based storms over southern AZ and NM could push gusty winds into the lower deserts by evening. Isolated severe gusts are possible.

⚠️ Heads up if you’re in Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or the U.P. of Michigan. The ingredients are there for a noisy evening. Damaging winds are the top concern, but large hail and a tornado can’t be ruled out.

📲 Stay alert, charge your devices, and have a plan to get to shelter if warnings are issued.

07/13/2025

You know it's hot outside when you go outside and it’s hot.

07/13/2025

She’s a local to my area. Absolutely sad that she’s going through this. Please if you can help her through her time of need it’d be greatly appreciated to her family and friends. 🙏 ♥️

07/09/2025

🌧️ FLASH UPDATE: Deadly Central Texas Flooding 🌧️

From July 4–7, intense storms fueled by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry slammed into the Hill Country. The Guadalupe River surged over 26 feet in just 45 minutes—surprising even seasoned meteorologists.

📉 Impact at a Glance:
• Confirmed fatalities: 118+ lives lost, including many children 
• Still missing: 172+ people unaccounted for, with roughly 161 in Kerr County alone 
• Camp Mystic tragedy: Among the losses, 27 campers and counselors perished at Camp Mystic—it’s one of the deadliest flash flood events in recent U.S. history 

⏱️ Why it hit so hard:
A stalled mesoscale convective complex dropped up to 20 inches of rain in under 48 hours. The rapid flood surge gave residents minimal warning—even though flash flood warnings were issued, the speed of water rise caught many off guard .

🚨 Ongoing response:
• Governor Abbott has pledged full search and rescue efforts until every missing person is found 
• Hundreds of rescue teams from across the U.S. and Mexico are on the ground. Over 400 rescues completed so far (441 in Kerr County alone) 
• A public health emergency is in effect; FEMA disaster recovery centers are open and volunteers are helping with cleanup and aid

💡 What to know—and do:
• Flash floods strike fast. If you get flood warnings, move to higher ground IMMEDIATELY.
• Communities across Texas are reassessing flood alert systems—Kerr County had no formal warning network before this tragedy.

🙏 Our thoughts and support:
Our hearts go out to everyone affected—those who lost loved ones, families still waiting for news, and communities battered by this catastrophic event. Recovery will be long. If you’re able, consider donating to credible relief organizations like Samaritan’s Purse, World Central Kitchen, All Hands and Hearts, or Operation Airdrop.

We’ll continue covering evolving weather threats, recovery updates, and safety tips. Stay alert, stay safe, and signal if we can help further.

07/08/2025

🚨 NOAA Budget Cuts for 2026: What’s Being Cut, and Why It’s a Big Deal 🚨

A lot of people don’t realize just how much behind-the-scenes work goes into the weather forecasts we rely on every single day. From radar research to hurricane hunters, NOAA is the backbone of weather, climate, and ocean science in the U.S. — and now, the federal government is proposing a massive cut to its budget for fiscal year 2026.

The proposal slashes NOAA’s funding by over $1.8 billion — a 27% decrease compared to last year — and it’s targeting the very programs that help save lives and protect property during severe weather events. Here’s what’s being cut and why it matters:

🌪️ 1. Cutting Tornado & Severe Weather Research

🔻 National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Oklahoma would be shut down. This lab is where much of the research happens for improving tornado warnings, radar systems, and storm structure understanding. Their work helped develop Doppler radar and dual-polarization — both of which revolutionized storm detection.

📉 Without them, the development of better tornado warnings — like more accurate lead times and false alarm reduction — slows down or stops completely.

🌊 2. Ending Ocean & Climate Monitoring Programs

🔻 All 10 research labs and 16 university-based cooperative institutes under NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) would be eliminated.

That includes:
• El Niño / La Niña tracking (which impacts seasonal forecasts and agriculture)
• Coastal resilience programs that help cities and towns plan for rising sea levels and flooding
• Water quality and air pollution monitoring
• Ocean acidification research, which tracks how carbon emissions are affecting marine life and ecosystems

❗ In simpler terms: we lose essential knowledge about how the climate is changing — and how to prepare for it.

🛰️ 3. Threat to Forecast Technology Development

🔻 Phased Array Radar and other cutting-edge systems used to develop the next generation of radar tech are on the chopping block. This is the future of radar — meant to provide faster, more detailed, 3D scans of storms.

🔻 Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) would lose funding. This system stores past weather data used by meteorologists, farmers, engineers, and local governments to plan and assess risk.

🛑 Without these tools, local forecasting offices lose the data and resources needed to improve forecasts or issue better emergency alerts.

👩‍🔬 4. Massive Job & Knowledge Loss

More than $700 million in research funding would be eliminated. Hundreds of scientists and staff across NOAA and partner universities would lose their jobs.

Many of these researchers don’t just do “lab work” — they go out into communities, run emergency preparedness studies, and work with schools, fire departments, and local governments to help people understand and prepare for natural hazards.

✈️ 5. No Funding for Replacement Hurricane Hunter Aircraft

NOAA’s current hurricane hunter planes — used to fly into hurricanes and collect real-time data used in cone forecasts — are aging. The 2026 budget does not include any money to replace them.

That means when these planes break down or age out, our ability to track hurricanes in real-time weakens, and forecast accuracy takes a serious hit.

📡 6. Big Cuts to Satellites & Climate Data Storage
• GOES-R and polar satellite programs are facing deep cuts or project transfers. These are the satellites that watch hurricanes from space and provide essential data for forecasting models.
• National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), where weather data is stored and distributed, is getting a 26% budget cut. That’s the data meteorologists, researchers, and even insurance companies rely on.

🏞️ 7. Killing Off Local & Regional Programs
• National Estuarine Research Reserves: gone.
• National Sea Grant College Program: gone. This program supports coastal economies and fisheries through science and education.
• Climate data centers and regional climate services offices: gone.
• IOOS (Integrated Ocean Observing System): gone. This helps track ocean conditions in real time, critical for ships, fisheries, and tsunami detection.

💬 That means no more support for local-level adaptation and preparedness — and small towns and cities will be left without federal help when planning for flooding, storms, or coastal erosion.

⚠️ Bottom Line: What This Means for You

✅ Less accurate forecasts
✅ Fewer warnings for tornadoes and hurricanes
✅ Slower response to natural disasters
✅ Less climate research and ocean monitoring
✅ More lives at risk and billions in preventable damage
✅ Loss of hundreds of weather scientists and public safety experts

🗣️ What Can Be Done?

This proposal isn’t law yet — Congress still has to vote on it. But if passed, it would be the largest rollback of weather and climate research in U.S. history.

If you care about accurate forecasts, public safety, severe weather awareness, and scientific integrity, let your voice be heard. Contact your representatives. Stay informed.

Posted by: National Weather Watch – Where data meets reality. Keeping you aware, not afraid.

07/06/2025

⚠️ Severe Weather Alert for Monday, July 7, 2025
SPC Day 2 Outlook – Enhanced Risk Issued
🕛 Valid: 7 AM Monday – 7 AM Tuesday

🚨 A Level 3 / Enhanced Risk has been issued for parts of northeast Colorado, western Nebraska, and extreme southern South Dakota — indicating increased confidence in significant severe storms.

🌪️ Key Threats:
• Damaging wind gusts (30% risk area with potential for significant wind swaths)
• Large hail, including some stones 2+ inches
• Tornadoes possible, especially across NE CO into western NE (5% risk)

🟠 Other Areas at Risk:
• Slight Risk (Level 2): From eastern CO into MN and IA
• Marginal Risk (Level 1): Extends into the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic

🌩️ Setup Overview:
A potent mid-level trough is set to eject across the Plains, combining with strong surface heating and deep moisture return. This will lead to explosive thunderstorm development late Monday.
• CAPE values: 2000–3000 J/kg
• Bulk shear: 35+ knots
• Supercells are likely early, with a transition to an MCS by evening, especially across western NE, where damaging winds will become the primary threat.

🗺️ Northern Appalachians / Northeast:
A separate area of concern exists from New York into Maine, where isolated strong storms could form along a surface trough. Wind gusts are the primary concern here.

🎯 Bottom Line:
Storms Monday could be fast-moving and intense. If you live in or near the enhanced/slight risk zones, now’s the time to check your emergency plans and monitor forecast updates.

💬 Let us know your location in the comments, and we’ll give you a local breakdown.