Paul Warburg

Paul Warburg Paul Warburg is an independent, open-source geopolitical analyst.

In a world of murky information that is often made far more complex than it needs to be, I like to speak in plain English to actual human beings, so that everyone can understand what's goi

01/23/2026

In Russia's war against Ukraine, much of the mainstream media seems convinced that Ukraine is losing. Even after four years of warfare with Ukraine showing what it can do, Russia's large size still has many people convinced that the war is hopeless for Ukraine. However, history and reality paint a different picture. In this video I talk about how history shows why countries in Ukraine's situation typically win their conflicts over time. I also explain the ins and outs of Ukraine's military situation, from machinery to manpower, showing how Ukraine can actually sustain itself for much longer than most people give it credit for.

01/23/2026

Russia just crossed a crucial tipping point in their war against Ukraine. They are now losing more soldiers than they can replace on a monthly basis. That's obviously a big deal, but it's even bigger than it looks once you understand the underlying reasons behind this. In this video, I cover how Ukraine is getting more skilled on the battlefield, while Russia is becoming systematically less and less capable of recruiting new soldiers. That's a strong combination, and it's bad news for Putin's desire to continue his war effort.

01/21/2026

France just made a MASSIVE announcement that has both Russia and the United States rattled. They are now providing Ukraine with the bulk of their foreign military intelligence, replacing the United States, and removing the most of the remaining leverage the United States had over Ukraine to pressure them into an early peace deal. This changes the nature of the war in many ways, but also has important implications for the future of the Trump presidency, and the United States as a whole.

01/20/2026

In their war against Ukraine, Russia has always projected an aura of unstoppable strength. It's never been true. Every time Russia has said something, the world has seen that the reality is far different than the story. But that doesn't stop Russia from trying.

In this video, I talk about why Russia's remaining strength has been vastly overplayed, from economic power based on gold reserves, to the amount of manpower that Russia actually has left to spend on their war. You'll realize very quickly how Russia is far weaker than most people think

01/19/2026

The United States under president Donald Trump seems to be intentionally destroying its global influence. The latest development is a new National Security Strategy that undermines the post-WWII global order that the United States built with much effort and intentionality. The U.S. has expressed a desire to abandon former allies and global dominance to focus on regional power instead. This comes on the back of an already highly unsuccessful tariff strategy that undermined trade relationships and the relevance of the U.S. dollar.

01/16/2026

Protests are erupting all across Iran, and the situation is only getting worse. In fact, things have now reached a tipping point, and the Ayatollah has a plan to flee to Russia. Donald Trump has threatened military intervention, which could be imminent. The situation is eerily similar to what caused the collapse of the Persian monarchy and led to the creation of the Iranian regime in the first place - except it's actually even worse. Let's look at what's going, and what makes these protests different from protests in previous years - and why it's so scary for the Ayatollah regime.

01/15/2026

The United States is weighing its options for taking over Greenland. They have not ruled out military force, and continually bring up the topic of the threat from Russia and China as their justification. However, there's more to this than meets the eye. In this video, I discuss the true strategic value of Greenland, why the U.S. really wants it, whether or not the United States would invade Greenland, and what all of this means for the NATO alliance.

01/14/2026

Protests are erupting all across Iran, and the situation is only getting worse. Donald Trump has threatened to militarily intervene if Iran uses force against protesters, and Iran isn't exactly happy about that either. The situation is eerily similar to what caused the collapse of the Persian monarchy and led to the creation of the Iranian regime in the first place. Let's look at what's going, and what makes these protests different from protests in previous years - and why it's so scary for the Ayatollah regime.

01/12/2026

The U.S. capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has Russia extremely worried - and it could have a big impact on the war in Ukraine. There are implications for the Russian shadow fleet, and for Russian oil in general. On top of that, it sets a global precedent that does not look good for Russia, to say the least. I discuss all of it, why it's so bad for Putin's reputation, and where things go from here.

01/11/2026

Let's talk about the Ukraine War - and what it's doing to Russian oil and gas. This winter, lots of Russian energy infrastructure is on track to potentially freeze as Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine. Now it's being made worse by new sanctions and new efforts to take Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers out of the equation. We could see Russian oil revenues drop drastically over the next several months, potentially below critical levels. What does that mean for the future of Russia, and for Russia's war against Ukraine?

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