08/25/2025
Headline News-
Fed Chair Powell on Friday sent bond prices surging while yields dropped, but it’s a new week with several high-risk events capping any further improvement in bond pricing and interest rates.
New home sales were released this morning which came in at -0.6% to an annual 652k vs 635k but, June was revised higher to 656k from 627k which was a solid report, but no market reaction.
Consumer Confidence, GDP and Core PCE follows this week and there will be some auctions and plenty of Fed speak, and the Fed Funds Futures are showing an 83% chance of a 25-basis point cut in Sept. Oil is trading at $64/bbl and the 10-yr. is up from Friday to 4.27.
As mentioned, any further rate improvement is dependent on a decisive breakout from the current bond pricing trend and the 10-yr. Treasury getting below 4.2% and staying there for two consecutive closing days.
Here is where we are with regards to long term interest rates as of today:
-Conventional 30 yr. fixed rate @ 0/0%: 6.25%
-Conventional 15 yr. fixed rate @ 0/0%: 5.375%
-Jumbo 30 yr. fixed 80% financing @ 0/0%: 6.25%
-FHA 30 yr. fixed rate @ 0/0%: 5.875%
-VA 30 yr. fixed rate @ 0/0%: 5.875%