11/21/2025
I do have snow in the forecast for next week. But the how much part and full development of any storm will take several more days to analyze.
Here’s a quick breakdown of what you’re looking at and why you shouldn’t buy into the hype just yet.
The top map shows the 6z (1am) deterministic run of the GFS.
In simple terms, a deterministic model is just one single version of the forecast. It’s like taking one snapshot of the atmosphere and asking it to predict the future. That one run can be right… or it can be way off. These single runs are notorious for flipping around, especially 7–10 days out. That’s why you’ll see big swings — one run shows a storm, the next run doesn’t.
That’s exactly what happened here.
The 6z deterministic run basically shows no snow for Kentucky, which is a far cry from some of the overly dramatic maps floating around social media.
Now look at the bottom image — that’s the GFS Ensemble (GEFS).
The ensemble is 31 different versions of the GFS, each started with tiny tweaks. Think of it like asking 31 different meteorologists the same question instead of just one. When you look at all 31 together, you get a much better idea of:
• How confident the pattern is
• Where a storm could go
• Whether snow is even realistic
• Whether a big storm is a real threat or just model noise
This ensemble run does show some snow, but nothing crazy for Kentucky and certainly nothing like the hype maps being passed around. It simply gives us a feel for the overall pattern, not a specific snow total 9–10 days out.
Bottom line:
Don’t let single-run snow maps fool you this far out. The deterministic models will bounce around like crazy. The ensemble gives us a calmer, more realistic view and right now, there’s nothing bonkers showing up for Kentucky.
I’ll keep tracking it, but for now… deep breaths, folks. ❄️😉
