05/17/2026
336pm 05/17/26
Severe weather watch is NOT expected, but a few isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening. Tornados are NOT a threat!
Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula into North
Florida and central Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 171842Z - 172045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts/downbursts and small to marginally
severe hail through this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...An increase in convective coverage is expected through
this afternoon from the western Florida Peninsula into southern
Georgia along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea breezes. Temperatures
in the low-90s F and dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s are
supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+
J/kg analyzed per latest mesoanalysis. Despite moderately strong
northwesterly upper-level flow, meager mid-level flow (less than 15
kts sampled at 500 mb by the 12z TBW/JAX observed soundings) is
forecast to limit effective bulk shear to around 20 kts or less.
While this is expected to largely limit storm organization, a
favorable thermodynamic environment should support pulse-severe type
convection. Steep low-level lapse rates (8+ C/km) and PWAT values of
1.5-1.8+ inches will promote the potential for strong to isolated
damaging downburst winds (likely in the 45-55 mph range). Small to
marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest convective
cores. Convection will largely be diurnally driven, with coverage
forecast to decrease later this evening owing to nocturnal
cooling/stabilization. Given the expectation for storm organization
and threat magnitude to remain limited, watch issuance is not
expected.