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First Alert Hurricane, New Orleans, LA (2026)

09/09/2026

🌴 GULF TROPICS: LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD

Tuesday Night, September 8, 2026

Here’s an interesting look at the GFS model valid Thursday, September 24. It certainly catches your attention, showing a very strong tropical system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

But before anybody gets concerned, this is not a hurricane forecast.

We’re looking 16 days into the future, which is far beyond the range where any computer model can reliably determine whether a particular tropical cyclone will form, how strong it might become, or exactly where it would travel.

What is worth watching is the overall weather pattern.

🌊 As we move deeper into September, the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic remain areas we normally watch closely.

🌀 Rather than concentrating on the impressive storm drawn by this particular GFS run, we’ll watch to see whether multiple model runs and ensemble members begin showing a broader signal for lower pressures or tropical development during the second half of September.

📊 One model run at 384 hours is interesting—not a reason for alarm.

The storm pictured here could be completely gone on the next run, located hundreds of miles away, or replaced by an entirely different weather pattern.

That’s why we don’t chase individual long-range model runs.

For now, there is nothing in this image that should cause anyone along the Gulf Coast to worry or change plans. We simply watch the pattern, compare the ensembles, and see whether a legitimate signal begins emerging as we get closer.

September is a month when we always keep one eye on the Gulf.

No hype. No fear. Just watching the weather one day at a time.

🌴 Accuracy over First. Facts, not fear.

09/09/2026

🕯️ TWO LIVES REMEMBERED

A Prayer for Gulfport

On a Monday meant for rest,
beneath a warm September sky,
an ordinary morning became a day
our Gulf Coast will not soon forget.

Two people left their homes that morning,
never knowing goodbye had already been spoken.

Shane Basquill, only 31,
went to work as he had so many times before.
A son, a friend, a coworker—
a young man with years still waiting before him,
dreams still unfinished,
memories still waiting to be made.

Mary Anne Oberlies, 78,
walked through the door as a customer,
simply living an ordinary day—
a day that should have ended
with her returning safely home
to the people who loved her.

Instead, in a few terrible moments,
two lives were taken,
families were forever changed,
and strangers became united in grief.

There are moments when words seem too small.
When we are sorry cannot possibly carry
the weight of another family’s sorrow.
When all we can do is stand beside them,
bow our heads,
and pray.

We pray for Shane’s family—
for strength when the empty chair is noticed,
when the telephone no longer rings,
and when memories bring both smiles and tears.

We pray for Mary Anne’s family—
for comfort in the quiet hours,
for peace when grief feels unbearable,
and for the reassurance that a lifetime of love
cannot be erased by one terrible moment.

We pray for the employees and customers
who witnessed what no one should ever have to see,
and for those who helped others escape to safety
when fear filled the room.

And tonight, we pray for Gulfport.

May our community remember
that violence may take a life,
but it cannot take away the love that life created.

So let two names rise above the tragedy:

Shane Basquill.
Mary Anne Oberlies.

Not simply victims in a headline.
Not simply names in a police report.

They were people.
They were loved.
They mattered.

May God hold them close,
comfort every heart that mourns them,
and surround their families with a peace
that only He can provide.

Our deepest prayers are extended
to the families and loved ones of Shane and Mary Anne
following this horrifying and heartbreaking tragedy.

May we never forget their names.

Rest in peace, Shane and Mary Anne. 🕯️

Gulfport remembers.
The Mississippi Gulf Coast remembers.
And tonight, we pray together. 🙏

09/07/2026

🚨 DEVELOPING: TWO DEAD IN GULFPORT SHOPPING CENTER SHOOTING

Authorities continue to investigate a deadly shooting at the Crossroads Parkway shopping area in Gulfport, Mississippi, where two people were killed and one person was taken into custody.

Here’s what has been confirmed so far:

* 📍 LOCATION: Crossroads Parkway shopping area near Highway 49 in Gulfport.
* 🕦 TIME: Law enforcement responded shortly before 11:30 a.m.
* 🔴 TWO FATALITIES: The Harrison County Coroner’s Office has confirmed that two people were pronounced dead at the scene.
* 🕯️ VICTIMS: Their identities are being withheld pending notification of next of kin.
* 🚔 ONE PERSON IN CUSTODY: Authorities apprehended one person at the scene and took that individual into police custody.
* 🔎 ACTIVE INVESTIGATION: Gulfport Police detectives and crime-scene technicians are processing the scene, collecting evidence and reviewing available security footage.
* 📸 EVIDENCE AT THE SCENE: Photographs show investigators collecting evidence outside the shopping center. Another photograph shows apparent damage to the glass of a storefront door or window.
* 🚧 AREA SECURED: Police have secured portions of the shopping center while investigators process evidence and interview witnesses.
* ❓ MOTIVE UNKNOWN: Authorities have not publicly announced a motive for the shooting.
* ⚠️ ADDITIONAL SUSPECTS: Officials have not publicly confirmed whether anyone else is being sought.

🔴 THIS REMAINS AN ACTIVE AND DEVELOPING INVESTIGATION

Details could change as detectives continue their investigation. The circumstances leading up to the shooting have not yet been fully released.

We will continue to provide updates as Gulfport Police, the Harrison County Coroner’s Office and other authorities release confirmed information.

09/07/2026

🚨 DEVELOPING: TWO DEAD IN GULFPORT SHOPPING CENTER SHOOTING

Authorities are investigating a deadly shooting at the Crossroads Parkway shopping area in Gulfport. The Gulfport Police Department and Harrison County officials have confirmed two fatalities, while one person has been taken into custody.

Here’s what has been confirmed so far:

* 📍 Location: Crossroads Parkway shopping area near Highway 49 in Gulfport, Mississippi
* 🕦 Time: Law enforcement responded shortly before 11:30 a.m.
* 🔴 Fatalities: The Harrison County Coroner’s Office has confirmed two people were pronounced dead at the scene
* 🕯️ Victims: Their identities are being withheld pending notification of next of kin
* 🚔 Suspect: One person was apprehended at the scene and taken into police custody
* 🔎 Investigation: Gulfport Police detectives and crime-scene technicians are processing evidence and reviewing available security footage
* 📸 Evidence: Photographs from the scene show evidence markers outside a storefront and apparent damage to a glass door/window
* 🚧 Scene Status: Police have secured the area while investigators collect evidence and interview witnesses
* ❓ Motive: Authorities have not publicly released a motive
* ⚠️ Additional Suspects: Officials have not yet publicly confirmed whether anyone else is being sought

This remains an active and developing investigation. Information may change as detectives continue their work.

We will provide additional updates as Gulfport Police, the Harrison County Coroner’s Office or other authorities release confirmed information.

09/07/2026

⛈️ NORTHERN GULF COAST WEATHER UPDATE

Southeast Louisiana • Southern Mississippi • Southwest Alabama
Monday, September 7, 2026

We’re starting Labor Day hot, humid and loaded with Gulf moisture, but our attention turns northward later this afternoon as thunderstorms begin developing and working south toward the Gulf Coast.

🌡️ HOT BEFORE THE STORMS

Temperatures will climb well into the 90s before thunderstorms arrive, with heat-index readings potentially reaching 108° to 112° in some locations.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM until 7 PM.

⛈️ STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH

The main window to watch appears to be late afternoon into early evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop farther north and gradually push southward into southern Mississippi, southeast Louisiana and portions of southwest Alabama.

Coverage probably won’t be uniform, but any stronger storms could pack quite a punch.

• Strong, gusty winds
• Isolated damaging downbursts
• Frequent lightning
• Torrential tropical rainfall
• Localized street and poor-drainage flooding

There is some drier air aloft sitting above a very warm and humid lower atmosphere. That favors strong downdrafts as thunderstorms collapse, so damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with the strongest cells.

🌧️ TROPICAL MOISTURE STAYS WITH US

Precipitable-water values are running above 2 inches closer to the Gulf Coast, so thunderstorms will be capable of producing tremendous rainfall rates for short periods.

The atmosphere becomes even wetter Tuesday through Thursday as the upper ridge gradually weakens.

That should bring increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage Wednesday and Thursday, along with more clouds and somewhat lower afternoon temperatures.

🌀 TROPICS QUIET — BUT DON’T GO TO SLEEP

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remain quiet from an organized tropical standpoint.

That’s certainly good news, especially considering we’re reaching the climatological peak of hurricane season.

But quiet today doesn’t necessarily mean quiet two or three weeks from now.

One feature we’re watching carefully is the Madden-Julian Oscillation — the MJO.

The MJO is essentially a large-scale pulse of enhanced and suppressed tropical thunderstorm activity that moves through the global tropics. Current guidance suggests this signal could eventually progress toward the Western Hemisphere later in September.

If that happens, the background environment could become somewhat more favorable for tropical waves to organize across portions of the Atlantic.

However, there’s another important player this year:

El Niño.

El Niño continues to exert a strong influence on the tropical atmosphere, and the associated upper-level wind pattern can increase wind shear across portions of the Atlantic basin.

So even if the MJO becomes more favorable later this month, that does not automatically mean hurricanes will develop.

It simply tells us the tropical background state may become more interesting.

📌 BOTTOM LINE

• Hot and extremely humid through early afternoon
• Heat indices potentially 108°–112°
• Thunderstorms approach from the north late afternoon/early evening
• Strong downburst winds possible
• Tropical downpours likely underneath stronger storms
• Wetter pattern develops Tuesday through Thursday
• No immediate tropical development concerns
• MJO bears watching later in September
• El Niño and wind shear remain important limiting factors

For now, there’s nothing to chase and nothing to hype.

Enjoy the quiet tropics while we have them, but don’t put away the hurricane supplies just yet. September is the heart of the season, and we’ll continue watching the pattern rather than individual long-range model runs.

Facts, not fear. Accuracy over first.

09/07/2026

⛈️ NORTHERN GULF COAST WEATHER UPDATE

Southeast Louisiana • Southern Mississippi • Southwest Alabama
Monday, September 7, 2026

We’re starting Labor Day hot, humid and loaded with Gulf moisture, but our attention turns northward later this afternoon as thunderstorms begin developing and working south toward the Gulf Coast.

🌡️ HOT BEFORE THE STORMS

Temperatures will climb well into the 90s before thunderstorms arrive, with heat-index readings potentially reaching 108° to 112° in some locations.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM until 7 PM.

⛈️ STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH

The main window to watch appears to be late afternoon into early evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop farther north and gradually push southward into southern Mississippi, southeast Louisiana and portions of southwest Alabama.

Coverage probably won’t be uniform, but any stronger storms could pack quite a punch.

• Strong, gusty winds
• Isolated damaging downbursts
• Frequent lightning
• Torrential tropical rainfall
• Localized street and poor-drainage flooding

There is some drier air aloft sitting above a very warm and humid lower atmosphere. That favors strong downdrafts as thunderstorms collapse, so damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with the strongest cells.

🌧️ TROPICAL MOISTURE STAYS WITH US

Precipitable-water values are running above 2 inches closer to the Gulf Coast, so thunderstorms will be capable of producing tremendous rainfall rates for short periods.

The atmosphere becomes even wetter Tuesday through Thursday as the upper ridge gradually weakens.

That should bring increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage Wednesday and Thursday, along with more clouds and somewhat lower afternoon temperatures.

🌀 TROPICS QUIET — BUT DON’T GO TO SLEEP

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remain quiet from an organized tropical standpoint.

That’s certainly good news, especially considering we’re reaching the climatological peak of hurricane season.

But quiet today doesn’t necessarily mean quiet two or three weeks from now.

One feature we’re watching carefully is the Madden-Julian Oscillation — the MJO.

The MJO is essentially a large-scale pulse of enhanced and suppressed tropical thunderstorm activity that moves through the global tropics. Current guidance suggests this signal could eventually progress toward the Western Hemisphere later in September.

If that happens, the background environment could become somewhat more favorable for tropical waves to organize across portions of the Atlantic.

However, there’s another important player this year:

El Niño.

El Niño continues to exert a strong influence on the tropical atmosphere, and the associated upper-level wind pattern can increase wind shear across portions of the Atlantic basin.

So even if the MJO becomes more favorable later this month, that does not automatically mean hurricanes will develop.

It simply tells us the tropical background state may become more interesting.

📌 BOTTOM LINE

• Hot and extremely humid through early afternoon
• Heat indices potentially 108°–112°
• Thunderstorms approach from the north late afternoon/early evening
• Strong downburst winds possible
• Tropical downpours likely underneath stronger storms
• Wetter pattern develops Tuesday through Thursday
• No immediate tropical development concerns
• MJO bears watching later in September
• El Niño and wind shear remain important limiting factors

For now, there’s nothing to chase and nothing to hype.

Enjoy the quiet tropics while we have them, but don’t put away the hurricane supplies just yet. September is the heart of the season, and we’ll continue watching the pattern rather than individual long-range model runs.

Facts, not fear. Accuracy over first.

09/06/2026

❄️ 2026–2027 WINTER OUTLOOK: A POWERFUL EL NIÑO TAKES CENTER STAGE

The atmospheric groundwork for the upcoming winter is becoming increasingly interesting. A rapidly strengthening El Niño is underway across the equatorial Pacific, and current guidance strongly favors this event becoming very strong during the fall and winter of 2026–27.

This isn’t simply a warm patch of Pacific water. The atmosphere is increasingly responding to the ocean, which is important because a fully coupled El Niño can reorganize the jet-stream pattern across much of North America.

The primary feature we’ll be watching this winter is the subtropical jet stream.

During strong El Niño winters, that southern branch of the jet frequently becomes stronger and more active from the eastern Pacific across Mexico and the southern United States. That tends to favor a more active storm track across California, the Southwest, Texas and eventually the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

🌧️ GULF COAST & DEEP SOUTH

For Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, the larger signal favors a wetter and more active winter than we’ve experienced during many recent seasons.

• More frequent southern-stream disturbances
• Increased Gulf low-pressure development
• Greater opportunities for widespread rainfall
• More cloudy, cool and damp periods
• Periodic severe-weather opportunities
• Occasional winter-weather threats when Arctic air is available

For southern Mississippi and the northern Gulf Coast, one distinction is especially important:

El Niño does not necessarily mean an exceptionally cold winter.

Instead, it increases the likelihood of having an active storm track overhead.

That means our temperatures could fluctuate considerably. There may be lengthy stretches of relatively ordinary winter weather interrupted by individual cold shots.

The interesting situations develop when one of those cold air masses arrives at the same time a southern-stream disturbance approaches from Texas or the Gulf.

That’s when freezing rain, sleet or occasionally snow can enter the discussion.

But predicting an elevated number of Gulf Coast ice storms this far ahead would go beyond what ENSO can reliably tell us. The availability, depth and timing of subfreezing air will ultimately determine whether a particular system produces cold rain or something considerably more troublesome.

⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER

The active southern jet also deserves attention from a severe-weather standpoint.

Wintertime Gulf Coast severe weather frequently occurs in environments characterized by tremendous wind shear but comparatively modest instability. A strong southern-stream disturbance interacting with Gulf moisture can produce damaging winds and tornadoes even when temperatures don’t feel particularly warm.

A strong El Niño could provide more opportunities for these dynamically driven systems, but whether those ingredients actually overlap cannot be determined months beforehand.

❄️ SOUTHERN PLAINS & OHIO VALLEY

Farther north, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and portions of the Ohio Valley may frequently find themselves near the battle zone separating Gulf moisture from colder continental air.

That creates the potential for some storms to produce:

rain → freezing rain/sleet → heavy snow

over relatively short distances.

Individual storm tracks will determine which communities experience each precipitation type.

🌨️ NORTHEAST

The Northeast becomes considerably more complicated.

El Niño alone doesn’t tell us whether New York, Philadelphia or Boston will have a blockbuster snow season.

An active subtropical jet can supply tremendous moisture, but high-latitude blocking, the NAO, polar-vortex configuration and exact coastal storm tracks determine whether that moisture falls as rain or snow.

Interior New England and higher elevations could benefit substantially from moisture-rich coastal systems when sufficient cold air is available.

🌧️ CALIFORNIA & SOUTHWEST

California and portions of the Southwest deserve particular attention.

A powerful El Niño increases the possibility of an energetic Pacific storm track and significant precipitation episodes. Atmospheric rivers could occasionally become important contributors.

However, even a historically strong El Niño does not guarantee that California will experience historic rainfall or Sierra snowfall. Storm-track placement remains critical.

🌡️ PACIFIC NORTHWEST & NORTHERN TIER

The traditional El Niño signal becomes almost the mirror image farther north.

The Pacific Northwest and portions of the northern tier frequently lean:

• Warmer than normal
• Less persistently stormy
• Higher mountain snow levels at times
• Reduced opportunities for prolonged Arctic outbreaks

That doesn’t mean there won’t be cold waves or major snowstorms. It means their seasonal frequency and persistence may be reduced compared with areas farther south.

🔎 THE WILDCARD: BLOCKING

This may ultimately be one of the most important pieces of the winter forecast.

If the Pacific pattern is accompanied by periods of negative NAO/AO blocking, cold air could occasionally become established farther south while the moisture-loaded subtropical jet continues operating underneath it.

That’s the combination that would concern me most for the South:

Cold air already in place + strong southern jet + Gulf moisture = potential winter storm.

Without that cold-air connection, many of those same systems simply become 40-degree soaking rains.

So I wouldn’t sell the 2026–27 winter as a guaranteed blockbuster winter.

I’d describe it as a potentially high-energy, moisture-rich and highly variable winter, particularly across the southern United States.

And considering the extraordinary strength that El Niño is presently forecast to reach, this is one winter pattern we’ll want to watch very closely as we move through autumn.

NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for September 10, which should give us another important update on just how quickly this event is intensifying.

So stay tuned for the breaking news somewhere around September 10 when we will have an update on winter 2026 - 2027.

Meteorologist Louis Smith

09/06/2026

🌴 NORTHERN GULF COAST TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

Southeast Louisiana • Southern Mississippi • Southwest Alabama • Florida Panhandle
Sunday, September 6, 2026

As we move deeper into September and toward the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the weather pattern across the northern Gulf Coast continues to have a decidedly tropical character. There is no organized tropical system threatening the Gulf Coast at this time, but there is certainly no shortage of tropical moisture.

From southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, precipitable-water values generally around 2.1 to 2.3 inches indicate a very moist atmospheric column. With that much moisture available, thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall over relatively short periods of time.

The National Hurricane Center currently indicates that tropical cyclone formation is not expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. That is welcome news as we approach the traditional September 10 peak of hurricane season, but a quiet Atlantic today does not necessarily tell us what the pattern will look like one or two weeks from now.

For the northern Gulf Coast, our immediate tropical concern is moisture rather than tropical cyclone development.

Daytime heating, the Gulf sea breeze and leftover thunderstorm boundaries should provide plenty of opportunities for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop. Coastal Louisiana, the New Orleans metropolitan area, coastal and southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and portions of the Florida Panhandle should all have opportunities for tropical downpours.

There are also indications that a cluster of thunderstorms could approach from the north later today. Whether that feature survives all the way to the coast remains uncertain, but if it does, thunderstorm coverage could become considerably greater than we would normally expect from the sea breeze alone.

The tremendous amount of moisture in the atmosphere makes heavy rainfall a greater concern than widespread severe weather.

These thunderstorms will have deep warm-cloud layers and an abundance of Gulf moisture available to them, making them very efficient rainfall producers. Steering currents are relatively weak as well, meaning some storms may move slowly. If a sea-breeze boundary or thunderstorm outflow boundary stalls, additional storms may repeatedly develop over the same locations.

Most communities will simply receive a heavy tropical downpour followed by improving weather. However, localized rainfall totals could become impressive where thunderstorms train or backbuild. Street flooding and isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly in urban areas and locations receiving several rounds of thunderstorms.

A few storms could also produce strong wind gusts. Vertical wind shear remains relatively weak, so this does not appear to be a widespread organized severe-weather situation. However, strong daytime heating combined with water-loaded thunderstorm downdrafts can occasionally produce surprisingly strong winds.

Monday should bring another round of this familiar late-summer Gulf Coast weather. A weakness in the upper-level pattern and a weak boundary approaching from the northeast may provide somewhat greater support for thunderstorms from southern Mississippi eastward through southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

The boundary itself probably will not push very far into the northern Gulf Coast, but its proximity should weaken the influence of the ridge and provide another focus for convection. Once again, Gulf moisture, the sea breeze and leftover outflow boundaries will determine where the heaviest thunderstorms ultimately develop.

Looking beyond our immediate weather, there is another piece of the tropical puzzle worth watching very carefully as we move through September: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO.

The latest Climate Prediction Center analysis has shown the MJO signal primarily around Phase 7, although its evolution is being influenced by the developing El Niño circulation across the tropical Pacific. The important question is not simply where the MJO is today, but where that envelope of enhanced and suppressed tropical convection travels during the next couple of weeks.

Guidance suggests the broader subseasonal signal could eventually progress toward the Western Hemisphere. Should the more favorable rising-motion portion of the MJO become established closer to the Atlantic later in September, the background environment could become somewhat more favorable for tropical convection and possibly tropical cyclone development.

But there is another player on the weather map this year — El Niño.

El Niño is established across the tropical Pacific, and its atmospheric influence is important when discussing the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño frequently strengthens upper-level westerly winds across portions of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. That increases vertical wind shear, which can disrupt tropical waves and developing tropical cyclones.

That leaves us with an interesting atmospheric tug-of-war as we approach the climatological peak of hurricane season.

On one side, we have very warm tropical waters, high oceanic heat content, September climatology and the possibility of the MJO eventually becoming more supportive of Atlantic convection. On the other side, El Niño can maintain areas of stronger upper-level wind shear capable of disrupting developing systems.

The atmosphere is rarely controlled by one ingredient.

We will need to watch the position of the MJO, the location and strength of upper-level shear, African easterly waves moving off the continent, moisture across the Main Development Region and, importantly, the position and strength of the subtropical ridge.

That ridge ultimately helps determine where tropical systems travel if something does develop.

For southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, there is no indication at this time of an organized tropical cyclone threatening the region. Our more immediate concern is the tropical moisture already sitting over the Gulf Coast, bringing scattered to numerous thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and isolated strong wind gusts.

But September is September.

We are moving into the climatological heart of hurricane season, and a quiet Atlantic during the first week of the month should never be interpreted as meaning hurricane season is finished. The larger atmospheric pattern can change, sometimes considerably, over a period of only a week or two.

For now, the northern Gulf Coast tropical story is moisture, moisture and more moisture — not an organized tropical cyclone.

We will continue watching the MJO, El Niño, wind shear and the overall Atlantic circulation carefully as we move through the peak of hurricane season.

No hype. No long-range model chasing. Just watching the atmosphere and following the pattern one day at a time.

🌴 Facts, not fear. Accuracy over speculation.

First Alert Hurricane

09/09/2026

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