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04/29/2025

𝐄𝐁𝟓 𝐧 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐫⁣

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐄𝐁𝟓?⁣
Interest rates: The cost of borrowing has increased due to the uncertainty premium, affecting highly leveraged EB5 projects more than less leveraged EB5 projects.⁣

Construction costs: Material costs and labor costs are the two components of construction costs–both have already gone up (material cost due to the trade war and labor cost due to the ongoing increase in immigration enforcement). This increase in construction costs affects mid level hotel brands and middle class housing more than luxury resorts and luxury housing since the proportional cost of construction costs is higher for mid level hotels/housing than for luxury housing/resorts, so the former are affected more than the latter.⁣

Mortgage rates: Real estate sales have already fallen as mortgage rates for home buyers have risen. An additional few hundred dollars a month add up quite a bit over a 30-year fixed term, people are pulling back and waiting for a recession to get mortgage rates down (and real estate prices down). Middle class housing is hit more, because downpayments are proportionally smaller, and proportionally the impact of a higher mortgage rate is larger, so the impact of a rate increase is harder on middle class housing than luxury housing (luxury housing buyers can absorb higher costs better, and generally have larger down payments proportionally, lowering the impact of the increase in mortgage rates). ⁣

Conclusion: EB5 projects with high leverage building mid level hotel and middle class housing are hit hard; whereas EB5 projects with low leverage building high end luxury developments are less affected.⁣

𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐞?⁣
The damage is already done: Regardless of who wins the trade war - the US, China, both, or neither, none of that matters. The damage is already done since confidence in the US dollar has been fundamentally shaken, and bond market yields have consequently risen. Putative US ally, Japan, was the main seller in the treasury bond market earlier in April, not China. It would take 5 years or 10 years or more to recover the lost confidence globally in the US dollar, high interest rates therefore are here to stay. ⁣

This is not about Mr Trump: Regardless of who is or will be President, the trade war will proceed and persist. This is because the fundamental cause of the trade war is far larger than any one individual. The USA is in the process of withdrawing from the world in a comprehensive way - commercially, trade wise, diplomatically, militarily - it is a full spectrum withdrawal. It is America that is withdrawing; not just Mr Trump. The matter will not get settled in the next day, week, month, quarter or year - this is a 5 to 10 year process as the global economy adjusts to the secondary and tertiary effects of a world with dramatically lower American engagement.⁣

𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬⁣
Almost all EB5 projects are impacted by the massive economic earthquake which is the trade war. The only EB5 projects potentially unscathed by the trade war will be the ones who have already created the jobs for their investors and also have already repaid their investors. All EB5 projects which have not completed the raise, or have not completed construction, or have not finished real estate sales will be impacted. In short, almost all post-RIA EB5 projects are affected in greater or lesser degree by the trade war.⁣

Projects redoing their financial models to take into account the trade war will find their profit margins reduced, some mildly, some moderately and some catastrophically, to an extent that the project is no longer viable as a business. Such profit impact - mild, moderate or severe - could equally be the case with projects that have completed their EB5 raises, as also projects that are currently in the market, as also projects that are yet to start their EB5 raise. ⁣

Agents and investors in all post-RIA projects should check with their projects about the impact of the trade war on their business model, capital stack and underlying assumptions. Agents and investors should ask projects to comment on the impact of rising interest rates, and rising construction costs, and increased mortgage rates. Prudence dictates that agents and investors should ask for a written assessment about the trade war from each project, because under US securities laws it is better to rely on written assurances rather than rosy verbal assurances. The biggest takeaway is that each EB5 project is affected to a different degree by the trade war.⁣

Stay tuned to ILW for the latest on the trade war’s impact on EB5.

10/31/2024

False rumors

● This is further to our August report on arrests of EB5 agents in China
● There have since been persistent rumors in Shanghai, and only in Shanghai, that the CEO of a large agent in Shanghai was arrested in August along with many others in that agency. The rumors include the statement that no one in China can confirm an arrest once warned by the authorities to stay mum. We have confirmed that the above rumors are false. Our confirmation was through multiple sources, including a direct conversation with that CEO.
● Meanwhile, the Chinese EB5 market has changed. It is harder to send money out of China. Agents are being circumspect regarding the path of funds, and investors often have to find their own ways of achieving the goal. However, funds continue to flow out of China; and China still accounts for approximately 50% of EB5 investments worldwide currently.

Speed of USCISOver the 24-year history of Immigration Daily, we have had many occasions for criticizing the USCIS for it...
10/16/2024

Speed of USCIS

Over the 24-year history of Immigration Daily, we have had many occasions for criticizing the USCIS for its slow speed of processing applications which has caused harm not just to immigrants, but to Americans and America as a whole. We are delighted to give kudos to USCIS for its speed of processing EB5 related forms this year. USCIS processed 6,000 I-526s in 12 months. By June, the net backlog of I-526 petitions was down to only 100, and the net backlog of I-829s was down to 5,000. See the massive jump in the processing of I-526s and I-829s in the chart below illustrating the trend. The chart is created by LucidText blog which has as usual done an excellent job of reporting on this topic. We again congratulate USCIS for this achievement; the praise is richly deserved.

[Refer to Attached Image]

We exhort USCIS to continue full steam ahead with this new level of efficiency of processing EB5 applications. Historically USCIS’s productivity at processing applications has been significantly lower than those of almost all Federal agencies. So a clear demonstration of high productivity of processing applications is a welcome development indeed. We urge USCIS to process every pending I-526, I-526E, I-829, I-956 and I-956F within the next 90 to 180 days.

Guest Article:Overview of I-526E Statistics for March 2024 by Ishaan Khanna for AIIA[ILW is pleased to bring to your att...
10/12/2024

Guest Article:
Overview of I-526E Statistics for March 2024 by Ishaan Khanna for AIIA

[ILW is pleased to bring to your attention a guest article by AIIA that we reprinted here:https://discuss.ilw.com/articles/articles/537705-article-overview-of-i-526e-statistics-for-march-2024-by-ishaan-khanna-for-aiia]

Background: As part of our mission to advocate for EB-5 investors, AIIA has filed multiple Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for information from United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) on topics that impact the EB-5 immigrant investor community.

We are now happy to report on the results of a FOIA request filed by EB-5 attorney and AIIA supporter Joseph Barnett. While our most recent FOIA response provided data towards the end of 2023, Mr. Barnett’s FOIA includes the first months of 2024, with full results of the FOIA request shared here.

We plan to release our analysis of the updated numbers along with a visa supply and demand analysis once we receive the result of our FOIA request.

Below is our analysis of the data gathered from April 1, 2022 to early 2024. It may contain certain discrepancies compared to prior data releases due to system updates and post-adjudication outcomes, as admitted by USCIS. We will not be conducting a full scale analysis of the supply-demand comparison of available visas as we have in the past, as the State Department has yet to announce the supply of visas for the upcoming fiscal year. Instead, we will be highlighting the number of petitions filed by less-covered countries in Latin America and Europe in this article.
In summary, the latest data displays the same general ratio of demand between Rural and HUA categories when compared to our analysis conducted earlier this year. The new petitions from the Rural category are quickly catching up with those from HUA (as seen in the graph below), likely due the market’s gradual response to the heavily lopsided demand between the two reserved categories.

Whether this general trend continues in the upcoming fiscal year, which may lead to a fuller utilization of the Rural category visas, remains to be seen. AIIA will continue to monitor this development in our future FOIA inquiries.

[Refer Image 1 & 2]

The table above shows the total number of I-526 and I-526E petitions filed in all categories since the enactment of the RIA up until April 18, 2024. As expected, China and India remain the two largest contributors to the visa demand. At the same time, visa demand from Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the rest of the world remains robust, indicating a healthy diversity of petitioners from all over the world.

It is especially noteworthy that petitions from China have leapt from a total of 1,776 since last November to a total of 2,600 this April, accounting for more than 57% of all the petitions filed worldwide (a moderate increase since last November). This development makes it likely for China’s existing “invisible backlog” to become visible within the visa bulletin in the upcoming fiscal year, which will in turn impact Chinese petitioners’ ability to file for adjustment of status.

[Refer Image 3; Pie Chart]

EB-5 Latin America Market

LatAm (Latin American) countries have filed a total of 160 petitions since the passage of the RIA, which account for around 3.5% of all the petitions filed worldwide. Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico lead the pack as they account for more than half of the LatAm market.

[Refer Image 4]

While the total number of petitions is relatively small, when breaking this data up further into the types of projects we can clearly see that the demand for HUA in the LatAm market clearly outpaces that of Rural, with Colombia’s (largest market in the region) HUA petitions outnumbering its Rural petitions by a ratio of 7 to 1.

[Refer Image 5]

EB-5 European Market

The European market is similar in size compared to the LatAm market, totaling 152 petitions since the passage of the RIA. However, as illustrated in the graph below, it can be observed that the European market is significantly more scattered in comparison. Russia leads the region with 42 EB-5 petitions, with the UK and France in a distant second and third.

[Refer Image 6]

When breaking up the European national data by categories, it is clear that the European market also faces a heavily lopsided demand and supply relationship between the Rural and HUA category, albeit to a lesser extent than the LatAm market.

[Refer Image 7]

Final Thoughts

Investors and professionals rely on accurate data to make informed decisions regarding immigration and investment for their clients. Understanding visa processing and issuance timelines and the number of investors waiting in line is crucial in the EB-5 program, especially given the uncertainty in immigration policies. However, USCIS does not consistently provide this information, prompting AIIA to file Freedom of Information Act requests on behalf of the EB-5 community.

AIIA is doing its best to bring the invisible backlog out into the open. With this information, prospective investors can assess what they are getting into, pending applicants can see where they are in line, and responsible EB-5 investment issuers can protect their investors by advocating for visa relief. We believe the industry needs to band together and support any and all policies that make the inevitable backlog-induced wait times more tolerable. However, it is important to note that the EB-5 industry and regional centers have continued to act against the interest of investors by suing the government to increase the sustainment period of the EB-5 investment and to increase the visa wait time for pre-RIA investors by preventing the rollover of unused visas.

As a nonprofit organization, AIIA invests significant time and resources in acquiring, analyzing, and disseminating this data. We rely solely on donations to sustain our efforts, including funding FOIA litigation, lobbying, and daily operations. We urge anyone who values our efforts to enhance transparency in the EB-5 program to consider supporting us by making a donation or membership contribution. Your support is vital in ensuring that we can continue to advocate for transparency and equity in the EB-5 program, benefiting investors and industry professionals alike.
This post originally appeared on AIIA Reprinted with permission.

About The Author

Ishaan Khanna is a founder of AIIA. The American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA) is a registered 501 (c) (4) organization dedicated to informing, educating, and advocating on behalf of all EB-5 investors from across the globe. Immigration by Investment matters in the US have numerous stakeholders each focused on their own agendas. Until AIIA's formation, there was no single organization effectively advocating on behalf of EB-5 investors. AIIA was founded in 2021 by four immigrant-investors to provide a voice and representation on behalf of investors. Through active and extensive outreach within the immigration and investment communities, government administrative agencies, Congressional leadership and other stakeholders, AIIA provides investors a seat at the table with respect to decisions and actions that affect them. As an organization whose sole focus is on EB-5 investors, both that are resident in the US and those awaiting their petitions to be adjudicated outside the US, AIIA strives to be the single authoritative investor-focused advocacy organization representing interests of all EB-5 investors. What can I do as an EB-5 investor/stakeholder? Become an advocate - We need investors to advocate for us as we outreach to policymakers. Having representative investors from different regional centers and states will help amplify our voice. Donate to us - Employing a lobbyist is very expensive. As a grassroots nonprofit, AIIA relies on donations from fellow EB-5 investors to fight for investors’ interest. Most investors are donating $500 - $2000, but even $100 helps. AIIA is run on a volunteer basis, and all of your donations will be used toward advocacy expenses. Volunteer - Join our movement! We are looking for volunteers who can help in various areas, such as public outreach, research and data analysis, media-management, etc. Let us know how you want to help using the volunteer signup form. Spread the word about AIIA - Follow us on Twitter and retweet our updates. Tell your fellow EB-5 investors about us and our cause. The more people we reach, the higher chances we have of protecting our community. Watch and share our Youtube videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel. The last webinar we did is a good summary of what we are trying to do The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

08/07/2024

Visa Bulletin vs Real Applications Pipeline

1) What is the Visa Bulletin? The visa bulletin is published by the Department of State to inform the date of applications they are currently processing. This is a backward looking factual description of simply which applications (made many years earlier) are now ready to receive a green card. The visa bulletin contains NO information about the number of applications that have already been submitted to USCIS which have not reached the green card stage yet. The visa bulletin has no relationship whatsoever with the pipeline of applications that have come in after the date mentioned in the visa bulletin.

2) What is the USCIS pipeline of applications received? The pipeline is the number of applications actually received by USCIS. The visa bulletin is published by DOS, but USCIS does NOT publish the pipeline. Fortunately, we have an idea of the EB5 pipeline thanks to the AIIA FOIA request that forced USCIS to release the data of the number of EB5 applications received.

3) Why does this difference between the pipeline and Visa Bulletin matter? The purpose of the visa bulletin is not to give prospective immigrants any idea of how long they would have to wait for their green card. The visa bulletin talks about retrospective wait times, whereas pipeline is the prospective wait times. To determine what are the prospective waiting times for an EB5 application the USCIS pipeline is the only thing to consider, the visa bulletin is completely irrelevant to the calculation of how long an applicant today will have to wait for their own green card.

4) How does this apply to EB5 waiting times now? Fortunately, we have an idea of the EB5 pipeline thanks to AIIA. The data show that the number of HUA EB5 applications already received is so high that the waiting time for the urban pipeline is already 8-10 years and is in the process of growing to 15+ years. This is the data, this is the fact, and the visa bulletin has nothing to do with this fact. Pointing to the visa bulletin to contradict this data has no basis in law, no basis in fact, no basis in logic. See articles here and here discussing the real USCIS data of applications already received in detail, the data clearly show that any suggestion that the HUA pipeline is less than 5 years long for Chinese investors and Indian investors is fantasy, dreaming, and hot air.

5) What are the consequences?
- Investors - investors from China and India face delay in getting green cards for 10-15 years in HUA projects
- Investors’ children - these children may age out during the long wait
- Investors - investors from China and India also face delay in getting their money back for 10-15 years (this is true regardless of the USCIS memo)
- Projects - If projects are knowingly misleading investors on green card waiting times (we believe many projects are knowingly misleading investors) that could be securities fraud which will come back to haunt these projects over the coming years
- Attorneys - If attorneys ignore the USCIS pipeline in favor of the visa bulletin, they may face malpractice claims, once investors figure out that their attorney has misled them. Unlike projects, attorneys cannot ever argue that they did not understand the difference between the visa bulletin and the USCIS pipeline, and the consequences therefrom to investors’ waiting time for receiving a green card

6) What should people in the EB5 industry do? We encourage everyone not to turn a blind eye to the actual USCIS data, which we have thanks to the AIIA FOIA requests. We urge folks not to rely on investors’ continuing to remain clueless about the real waiting times for HUA projects. In other words, we encourage everyone to tell the truth that HUA is over unless the investor is willing to wait for 10-15 years for their green card.

3 Kinds of Regional CentersThree different kinds of business models are possible for a Regional Center (RC).1. Regional ...
07/25/2024

3 Kinds of Regional Centers

Three different kinds of business models are possible for a Regional Center (RC).

1. Regional Center raises funds for the project
2. Regional Center is owned by the project
3. Regional Center only hosts the project (two variations: (3A) JCE owns NCE or (3B) NCE is independent of JCE

The chart below summarizes the three different business models for RCs, and a discussion about each business model follows the chart. [Refer Attached Image]

[Note: Percentages given are only approximate and are used to show only general patterns.]

Discussion

1. Regional Center raises funds for the project - In the EB5 industry, people think that the role of RC is to raise money–this impression is held by both agents and investors, and across many countries. However, historically only 35% of EB5 funds have been raised by RCs. In the post RIA world, the market share of this first model has risen to 50% due to the demise of RCs owned by projects (business model 2). Agents often ask for RC track records. This is relevant ONLY if the RC is raising money. In business model 1 and business model 2, the RC record is material; but in business models 3A and 3B, where the RC only hosts the project, the RC track record is not relevant. In fact, the track record in the hosting model is actually the record of the projects or JCEs–the RC has nothing to do with it. Even under RIA, RC supervision is only on compliance, not on financial performance or immigration success. You need to know the track record of the entity raising money–both immigration track record and repayment track record – but not necessarily the track record of RC.

2. Regional Center is owned by the project - Historically this category accounted for another 35% of capital raised. In the Post RIA world this market share has plunged to around 15%. This category uses a vertical integration model where RC, NCE and JCE are owned by the same group. On the one hand, conflicts of interest in this model are obvious. But, it is an economically efficient model as there is no middle man, so the entity can give best deals to agents and investors. Historically, this group has compensated agents better because of the lack of a middle man. Larger players prefer this model for its efficiencies; but for smaller players the expenses of owning an RC are not worth the trouble. Therefore historically, the largest players have used this model, massive urban developers being the prime example. As many urban players have been thrown out of EB5 due to the new TEA rules, the market share of this category has shrunk from 35% to 15%.

3. Regional Center only hosts the project (two variations: (3A) JCE owns NCE or (3B) NCE is independent of JCE): This is where the RC has little to no role in the financial track record and immigration track record of the projects it has hosted in the past. In the previous two models, the financial and immigration track record of the RC is material, but in this business model, the track record of RC is immaterial. As so many projects and RCs exited industry, some players that used to use categories 3A and 3B have transitioned to using categories 1 or 2 in the post RIA era. Some are alleging that their RC track record while hosting projects is material to their post RIA offerings. Because agents and investors are confused about the exact relationships between JCEs/NCEs/RCs and the materiality of performance of each of these, they are falling for this misleading pitch. This is also arguably deceptive advertising by the RCs and agents using this pitch. Trying to determine the financial track record of JCE promoters is material. Determining the immigration track record of RC is material only for 1 and 2. The immigration track record in 3A and 3B is irrelevant to judging an individual project. The market share of category 3A+3B historically has been 30% and it is now up slightly to 35%. When comparing 3A and 3B, the 3B model is more similar to 1, and the 3A model is similar to 2.

Each model has an advantage: Economically the most efficient model is category 2. On the other hand, as an independent fiduciary for EB5 investors, models 1 and 3B are appropriate. Often newcomers to the EB5 industry offering innovations will use model 3A.

Two major takeaways: 1) There are many Regional Center models, not one 2) To impute value to financial and immigration track record regardless of Regional Center model is not based on reality and will likely lead to poor outcomes.

EB5 HUA Is Over1) IIUSA recently published an article Calculating Demand and Supply for Reserved EB-5 Visa Numbers:  Dat...
04/08/2024

EB5 HUA Is Over

1) IIUSA recently published an article Calculating Demand and Supply for Reserved EB-5 Visa Numbers: Data, Factors, Knowns, Unknowns, and Estimates which commendably uses a proper mathematical approach to tackle a thorny problem. However, it reaches an erroneous conclusion due to a simple calculation error.

2) Kudos to IIUSA: Firstly, kudos to IIUSA for using a proper approach to the problem of estimating visa wait times; here is why IIUSA’s approach is both correct and commendable.

- IIUSA’s analysis uses ranges as opposed to point and line graphs, which is the right way of grappling with a problem with considerable unknowns and interplay of variables.

- One point projections do not capture the reality of the demand and supply data. Dealing with such problems requires not arithmetic or algebra but mathematics considerably higher than that. Simplified versions of the modeling are well attacked through use of ranges. Identification of multiple interacting variables, their respective ranges and their impact on each other is needed, which is what IIUSA has done, hats off to IIUSA for using ranges.

- Here is why estimating visa wait times involves significant uncertainty: As only 3 countries (China, India and Vietnam) are backlogged, the use of EB5 quota by the Rest of the World (ROW) is critical to determining waiting times for the backlogged countries. This problem is inherently mind-numbingly complex, because ROW includes dozens of countries each with its own supply and demand patterns. For example, recently published AIIA data shows that ROW accounted for 25% of EB5s--there would be a massive difference in waiting times for China, India and Vietnam depending on whether ROW accounts for 10% or 50% of EB5s being applied for. The range of uncertainty is so large that point and line graphs can’t adequately capture the patterns. Simplifying some of the variables by use of ranges, as IIUSA has ably done, enables revealing of the basic patterns. We encourage all those who opine on visa wait times to follow IIUSA’s lead and use ranges.

3) Data and Analysis

- IIUSA’s graphs of family size (figure 4 on page 7 of the article), show a variation in family size between 2.4 and 3. However IIUSA’s Table 2 on page 8 of the article erroneously uses a range of family size between 1.5 and 3, instead of the range of 2.4 to 3.5 based on IIUSA’s own data. This makes a significant difference to the conclusions, see below.

[Refer Image 1]

- Consequently, the lower bound of the demand ranges is artificially reduced for both urban and rural reserved visas. Based on IIUSA’s own data of family size the lower bound of the demand for urban TEA would be 2622*2.4/1.5 = 4195 and for rural TEA would be 1312*2.4/1.5 = 2099. See the corrected bar charts below based on IIUSA’s own data. This shows that for urban TEA demand exceeds supply of HUA visas already, whereas the range of demand for rural TEA is significantly below the supply of rural visas.

[Refer Image 2]

4) Conclusion:

- After correction based on IIUSA’s own data, families still persisting in investing in HUA projects as of April 2024 should be prepared for a significant wait for their green cards (We estimate it to be 5 to 10 years).

- Congress has made its will crystal clear by allocating 2/3rd of set asides to rural and 1/3rd to HUAs; therefore EB5 investors should prefer rural projects to urban ones by a ratio of 2 to 1. Furthermore the HUA EB5 sector is a victim of its own success because HUA EB5 projects have already sold 5 to 10 years of HUA quotas, creating a significant backlog for any investors investing in HUA now. It is not wise to be deaf to both Congress and market realities. (See ILW’s analysis of visa numbers here and AIIA’s article on visa numbers here)

Guest Article: AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for 2023 by Ishaan Khanna for AIIA[ILW is pleased t...
03/11/2024

Guest Article: AIIA FOIA Series: Updated I-526E Inventory Statistics for 2023 by Ishaan Khanna for AIIA

[ILW is pleased to bring to your attention a guest article by AIIA that we reprinted here.]

(Refer Image-1; Total Distribution of Petition Pie Chart)

Background: As part of our mission to advocate for EB-5 investors, AIIA has filed multiple Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for information from USCIS on topics that impact the EB-5 immigrant investor community. These have included:

- Information on staffing levels at the IPO, which affects the speed of processing EB-5 petitions

- Data for I-526/I-526E receipts by country and set-aside category, which is crucial for estimating the waiting times for incoming investors

- Administrative policies on I-829 processing criteria in order to assist investors in successfully getting their petitions approved and

- Implementation of the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022.

Since USCIS does not habitually provide timely response to FOIA requests, AIIA has also initiated litigation against USCIS to compel the agency to respond. We have received, and will continue to receive hundreds of pages worth of documents including internal memos, emails and training manuals. AIIA Members are entitled to a full copy of the government’s FOIA response. If you would like to receive the complete dataset, reach out to us through our contact form._

Find this article too complex? Want even further specifics and predictions? Watch this webinar we did with some of the top EB-5 experts to further analyze the raw data and put forth possible wait time predictions on the different countries and visa categories.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x26ZeDGf_Gg

AIIA was previously able to obtain data through April 2023 (reported here), and has now received a report through the end of 2023. The updated data contains the distribution of I-526 and I-526E receipts by TEA category and country of chargeability, which is crucial for understanding visa backlog and waiting time estimation in the new reserved visa categories. In this blog, we have analyzed the data to assess 1) economic impact of EB-5 in the post RIA world, 2) the trend in filings and 3) what the visa backlog/potential wait times could look like for investors.

In summary, the latest data indicates a moderate growth in demand for the Rural TEA category, but still below the needed level to absorb the near-term annual visa supply, including visas carried over from the previous year. Conversely, demand for visas in Urban High Unemployment TEAs remained high and is on track to surpass annual availability.

Demand Trend by TEA Category
Compared to the data we have previously received, this new batch of data clearly shows a surge in the number of petitions in the rural category. The number of rural I-526E petitions saw a significant jump after July 2023 and is now close to the high unemployment category in terms of monthly applications (see chart 1). While the ratio of total rural I-526Es compared to total high unemployment I-526Es have been steadily rising from April’s 1:3 to around 1:2 as of today, it should still be noted that the demand and supply of rural and high unemployment categories is still lopsided, considering that the ratio of rural to high unemployment visa supply is 2:1.

(Refer Image-2; Post-RIA I-526/I-526E Filling Tend, by Visa Set-Aside Category)

Demand Trend by Country

The data also shows demand from China increased, while that from India and other countries remained steady.

The table below shows the total number of I-526 and I-526E petitions filed after the enactment of RIA, including petitions for reserved visa categories. The key point to note is the high demand from the Rest of the World in the high unemployment category. This opens the potential for a visa backlog for the ROW investors and is also likely to affect the visa availability beyond the 7% country cap for investors from China and India.

(Refer Image-3; Total number of I-526/I-526E filed from April 1, 2022 to November 2023, by TEA category and country of chargeability)

The pending inventory of I-526 and I-526E petitions represents an “invisible backlog” that is not reflected in the visa bulletin because they have not yet reached the visa stage. This backlog indicates the growing pipeline of people who will eventually apply for visas.
AIIA is doing its best to bring the invisible backlog out into the open. With this information, prospective investors can assess what they are getting into, pending applicants can see where they are in line, and responsible EB-5 investment issuers can protect their investors by advocating for visa relief. We believe the industry needs to band together and support any and all policies that make the inevitable backlog-induced wait times more tolerable.

While measures such as concurrent filing and decoupling sustainment of investment from the immigration timeline have helped mitigate concerns, visa relief remains crucial. The current visa numbers are insufficient to accommodate the investments made under the EB-5 program, highlighting the need for legislative action.

Congressional representatives should be delighted to hear that foreign EB-5 investors have already committed over $874 million into rural areas and $1.7 billion into distressed urban areas since the RIA was passed. A huge economic benefit attracted by the promise of a visa incentive! Congress should also realize that the current law under RIA only provides sufficient annual visas to actually deliver about $640 million in rural EB-5 investment and $320 million in high unemployment EB-5 investment annually.

(Refer Image-4; Post-RIA I-526/I-526E Filling Tend, by Country of Category)

Comparing Demand with Supply

Based on the information we have, we can compare the demand pipeline with supply of visas and see whether a backlog is likely. To make the comparison, we first take the known number of I-526/I-526E receipts (each representing one investor) and convert that into an estimated number of future visa applicants (which includes investors plus spouses and children, less attrition from denials). We then compare pipeline visa applicants per category with visa supply per category in coming years. The demand/supply comparison shows that by the end of October 2023, cumulative pipeline visa demand significantly exceeded annual high unemployment visa availability, even in a year with extra carryover visas. Meanwhile, the rural demand pipeline appeared still below near-term visa supply, but high enough to absorb all available visas in a normal year.

Rural:

High Unemployment:

(Refer Image-5; Rural Visa Demand Pipeline as of October 31, 2023 Compared to Rural Visa Supply)
Please note:
- Actual cumulative I-526 and I-526E receipts from USCIS Response to AIIA FOIA Request (2/8/2024).
- Visa demand estimates multiply I-526/I-526E receipts by 2 or 3 (estimate considering addition of family and attrition from denials)
- Visa supply numbers are actual for FY2024; this supply can only be used as I-526s get approved in time.
- The first estimate for FY2025 assumes maximum possible carryover if FY24 visas unused; the second shows supply without carryover.

How long is the wait time for a visa if I invest today?
Wait times result when visa demand exceeds limited annual visa supply. Estimating specific wait times starts with facts, including how many investors have already joined the queue for visas, how many visas will be available, and how visas get allocated by country and category. Then the estimate has to add assumptions on top of the facts, including assumptions about family sizes, future denial rates, and future I-526/I-526E processing speed, volumes, and priority. People with different agendas will use different assumptions and reach different conclusions. But it is critical for every estimate to at least start from facts. As an organization, AIIA will not tell you the one and only way to interpret the data, but we want to empower you with data to interpret for yourself. As we did with the April 2023 FOIA response, we also plan to host a webinar with industry experts explaining how they make wait-time estimates based on available information.

Individual wait time estimates are complex and open to difference of opinion, but the big picture is simple: demand & supply = wait times. By that metric, the high unemployment category was clearly already headed toward a significant backlog and visa wait times as of November 2023, the end of last year, while the rural category appeared to have some cushion but is approaching the backlog rapidly. Individual analysis should drill down more deeply and include the country factor. The backlog risk is especially a concern for applicants from China and India, considering that these countries have shown strong demand but are limited to 7% of available visas plus what is leftover from the rest of the world.

Final Thoughts
Investors and professionals rely on accurate data to make informed decisions regarding immigration and investment for their clients. Understanding visa processing and issuance timelines and the number of investors waiting in line is crucial in the EB-5 program, especially given the uncertainty in immigration policies. However, USCIS does not consistently provide this information, prompting AIIA to file Freedom of Information Act requests on behalf of the EB-5 community.

As a nonprofit organization, AIIA invests significant time and resources in acquiring, analyzing, and disseminating this data. We rely solely on donations to sustain our efforts, including funding FOIA litigation, lobbying, and daily operations. We urge anyone who values our work to enhance transparency in the EB-5 program to consider supporting us by making a donation or membership contribution. Your support is vital in ensuring that we can continue to advocate for transparency and equity in the EB-5 program, benefiting investors and industry professionals alike.

This post originally appeared on American Immigrant Investor Alliance Reprinted with permission.

(Refer Image-6; High Unemployment Visa Demand Pipeline as of October 31, 2023, Compared to HU Visa Supply)

About The Author
Ishaan Khanna is a founder of AIIA. The American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA) is a registered 501 (c) (4) organization dedicated to informing, educating, and advocating on behalf of all EB-5 investors from across the globe. Immigration by Investment matters in the US have numerous stakeholders each focused on their own agendas. Until AIIA's formation, there was no single organization effectively advocating on behalf of EB-5 investors. AIIA was founded in 2021 by four immigrant-investors to provide a voice and representation on behalf of investors. Through active and extensive outreach within the immigration and investment communities, government administrative agencies, Congressional leadership and other stakeholders, AIIA provides investors a seat at the table with respect to decisions and actions that affect them. As an organization whose sole focus is on EB-5 investors, both that are resident in the US and those awaiting their petitions to be adjudicated outside the US, AIIA strives to be the single authoritative investor-focused advocacy organization representing interests of all EB-5 investors. What can I do as an EB-5 investor/stakeholder? Become an advocate - We need investors to advocate for us as we outreach to policymakers. Having representative investors from different regional centers and states will help amplify our voice. Donate to us - Employing a lobbyist is very expensive. As a grassroots nonprofit, AIIA relies on donations from fellow EB-5 investors to fight for investors’ interest. Most investors are donating $500 - $2000, but even $100 helps. AIIA is run on a volunteer basis, and all of your donations will be used toward advocacy expenses. Volunteer - Join our movement! We are looking for volunteers who can help in various areas, such as public outreach, research and data analysis, media-management, etc. Let us know how you want to help using the volunteer signup form. Spread the word about AIIA - Follow us on Twitter and retweet our updates. Tell your fellow EB-5 investors about us and our cause. The more people we reach, the higher chances we have of protecting our community. Watch and share our Youtube videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel. The last webinar we did is a good summary of what we are trying to do The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of ILW.COM.

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