
12/12/2023
Braces for "Shock" Economic Plan as Markets Wait
, Argentina: Argentina's markets held their breath on Tuesday as the new libertarian government prepared to unveil an "economic shock" plan aimed at tackling the country's crippling inflation and depleted reserves. The worst economic crisis in decades has gripped the nation, with poverty reaching 45% and inflation soaring past 200% annually.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo is scheduled to announce the measures after markets close, with expectations of drastic cuts in state spending, public sector downsizing, and potentially a significant devaluation of the peso. The government seeks to avoid hyperinflation by implementing these measures, which align with President Javier Milei's campaign promises of austerity symbolized by his signature chainsaw.
Currently, Argentina's currency, the peso, is artificially strong thanks to strict capital controls. However, Tuesday's trading in the official market was restricted, similar to Monday, with the central bank only allowing priority transactions until the new economic plan is revealed. Additionally, the government has temporarily suspended the grains export register, another sector where Milei has pledged tax cuts.
Despite the impending pain of the "shock" plan, Milei's rhetoric has surprisingly boosted markets. The S&P Merval stock index reached a record high on Tuesday, and sovereign bonds jumped over 2%. This optimism stems from Milei's promise of fiscal responsibility and his mantra, "there is no money."
However, doubts remain regarding Milei's ability to implement his agenda. His libertarian coalition holds only the third-largest bloc in Congress, and forging alliances necessary for such drastic changes will be challenging. Additionally, the social unrest potential in the face of austerity measures remains a significant concern.
Analysts predict a significant devaluation of the peso to around 650 per dollar in the near future, compared to the current official rate of 365. Private banks have already started offering exchange rates closer to 700 pesos per dollar, anticipating an official devaluation.
On Wednesday, the central bank will remove the "transition" checks imposed earlier this week on foreign exchange transactions, granting greater freedom to the market. Additionally, Santiago Bausili, a close ally of Caputo, has been officially appointed as the new central bank president, replacing Miguel Pesce.
Amidst the economic uncertainty, President Milei has already begun downsizing the government. The number of ministries has been halved to nine, and significant cuts have been made in secretariats and departments. Whether these measures will be enough to address the economic crisis remains to be seen, but Argentina is undoubtedly entering a new and potentially turbulent chapter in its economic history.