03/11/2026
🚨The Iran war could send oil to $130 a
barrel. Here's why that hits YOUR wallet.
One chokepoint. 21 million barrels a day. Zero alternatives. The Strait of Hormuz controls 20-25% of global oil supply. If Iran shuts it down, there is no backup route. None. Here's the math 👇
🛢️Every $10 oil rally = +20 bps to inflation
⛽️Every $5-$10 increase = 15-25¢ more per gallon at the pump
📉 Every $10 rally = 0.1% drag on GDP growth
The last time inflation hit 5%? The Fed was hiking aggressively and the S&P dropped 9%.
Oil at $100-$130 could push CPI back to 5%. That means higher gas, higher groceries, higher interest rates on your mortgage, your car loan, your credit cards.
Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia. All of them rely on this one strait. There is no alternative sea route.
And now OPEC+ just agreed to a 206K barrel per day hike for April. But if Hormuz gets disrupted, no amount of production increases will matter. 💥
Swipe in to my DM for the full breakdown