10/14/2025
10/14/25 Severe Weather threat for Saturday evening into Sunday morning: A strong cold front and associated trough will swing through the tri-state this weekend. Severe weather will be possible across most of the area during this time period. At this time, a low end Severe threat will be possible with a forced line of thunderstorms. Damaging winds will be the main concern, but some isolated spin-up tornadoes will be possible.
Forecast thoughts: We will see the low-level jet increase late Saturday into Sunday morning. This low-level jet will start out in the 35 to 45 knot range and strengthen to 50 to 65 knots late Saturday night into Sunday morning. CAPE values and lapse rates are meager, but this does look like a high shear/low CAPE set up. As the low-level jet increases, gradient winds will increase with surface wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible Sunday morning.
An area of low-pressure will push Northeastward into Missouri, Central Illinois, and Northern Indiana during the period. A line of thunderstorms will develop along a strong cold front and push Eastward Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Surface dew points will surge into the low to mid 60s ahead of the front. Timing is still up in the air amongst forecast models. Some changes in timing will be possible over the next couple of days.
Overall, this is our first Severe weather event of the Fall Severe Weather season. We do see quite a few tornadoes during the night time period during the Fall and Winter. At this time, widespread damaging winds and tornadoes are not expected, but this could change over the next couple of days. Stay tuned for updates.