Meteorologist Kyle Noel

Meteorologist Kyle Noel B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences - University of North Carolina at Asheville (2017). M.S in GIS and Technology - NC State University (2023).

I like to post weather updates for family and friends with my free time.

Amid all the Tropical Depression Nine chatter, Hurricane Humberto quietly reached Category 5 strength with sustained win...
09/28/2025

Amid all the Tropical Depression Nine chatter, Hurricane Humberto quietly reached Category 5 strength with sustained winds of 160 mph.

This season has been unusual: we’ve now had one Category 4 hurricane and two Category 5 hurricanes... yet our traditional peak window (Aug 23–Sep 19) was completely shut out for the first time since the 1930s.

Another record: the 2024 and 2025 seasons mark the first back-to-back years with 2+ Category 5 hurricanes since 1932 and 1933 seasons. Humberto also became the 12th Category 5 hurricane in just the past nine years, which may set a new decadal record.

What makes Humberto even more remarkable is where it intensified. It reached Category 5 status in one of the furthest northeast locations ever recorded. The Southeast U.S. has been incredibly fortunate this season... nearly every hurricane in the southwestern Atlantic has exploded into a monster over abnormally warm waters. If not for a cooler atmospheric pattern over eastern North America, conditions could have easily favored more storms forming and steering inland over these soupy waters.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #5 (9/28/2025):At this point, the "out to the sea" scenario is about to fully win out o...
09/28/2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #5 (9/28/2025):

At this point, the "out to the sea" scenario is about to fully win out out of three possible solutions that I presented a couple updates ago. Tropical Depression Nine is moving way slower than expected, which is allowing the storm to miss the upper low capture that would've pulled it inland. Instead, it'll soon sense an opening to northeast and then follow Hurricane Humberto out to the sea. Rainfall totals have been slashed considerably as a result. This was always a sensitive steering pattern so it is unsurprising that a low confidence forecast shifted from one scenario to another. It happens.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #4 (9/27/2025):Well... overnight, we trended toward a much weaker upper low system that...
09/27/2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #4 (9/27/2025):

Well... overnight, we trended toward a much weaker upper low system that is currently over the Southeast US right now. This is resulting in a less "pulling" influence on PTC 9, which has been updated to become Tropical Depression 9 (TD 9). Hurricane Humberto, now a Category 4, has become a dominant steering influence on TD 9. Because of this, along with the slow strengthening, TD 9 is now expected to stall hard at about 100 miles offshore of the Carolinas before turning hard right while following Hurricane Humberto out to the sea. We will still see a major rain event, but it won't be a catastrophic flooding event on level of several big hurricanes in last 10 years. Definitely still need to worry about localized floods. I'll fill in more details later today.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE UPDATE #3 (9/26/2025):Invest 94L has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nin...
09/27/2025

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE UPDATE #3 (9/26/2025):

Invest 94L has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9). While it hasn’t yet reached tropical cyclone status, it has the potential to do so soon.

Why this terminology? It allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to begin issuing official forecast advisories before the system is formally classified as a tropical storm or hurricane. This step is especially important for systems that may bring impacts within just a few days. In this case, we’re only about four days away from potential effects in the Carolinas.

The NHC’s first advisory on PTC 9 takes a cautious but smart approach, balancing across the different scenarios I mentioned earlier. Their current track favors a middle-ground solution, with PTC 9 stalling just off the Charleston coast before either moving inland or curving back out to sea. On intensity, the forecast is also right in the middle. The NHC projects PTC 9 will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane with peak winds around 75 mph before weakening again. Still, it remains possible that the system could become a bit stronger than this outlook suggests.

The next 24 hours will be critical. I’ll provide another update in the morning.

INVEST 94L UPDATE #2 (9/26/2025):Okay y’all... I’m about to throw a lot of information your way, so stick with me. Bott...
09/26/2025

INVEST 94L UPDATE #2 (9/26/2025):

Okay y’all... I’m about to throw a lot of information your way, so stick with me. Bottom line up front: I do not believe Invest 94L (future Imelda) will become a powerful storm. There are too many atmospheric factors working against it as it drifts north-northwest over the Gulf Stream. As for the track, I think it’s far more uncertain than many other forecasts online are suggesting. There are just too many moving parts right now to lock anything down beyond the next 24–48 hours. However, I do worry about the flooding potential of 94L later on. I'll get to that.

Here’s what we know: The National Hurricane Center currently gives 94L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. If it does, the name will be Imelda. Right now it’s still a disorganized system north of Haiti and will take some time to pull itself together. The next 24–48 hours will be critical in determining its future strength.

Once 94L strengthens into a tropical cyclone, it will start to feel the pull of an upper low pressure system over the Southeast. That upper low is trapped between two high-pressure ridges, which helps steer the storm toward the upper low. Additionally, the existence of Hurricane Humberto to east will force 94L to take on a more western path while moving north-northwestward. As 94L approaches, it will run into moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear from the upper low. This shear will prevent the storm’s core from tightening and also drag in dry air from Florida, further disrupting development. Because of these factors, both wind shear and dry air will put a cap on how strong 94L (future Imelda) can get.

Most intensity guidance from both global and hurricane models agrees that the system will likely peak as a strong tropical storm or possibly a low-end Category 1 hurricane. Anything stronger can't be ruled out, but that is not looking very likely at this moment unless the development of 94L into a tropical cyclone is rapid over next 24 hours.

For a while, it looked like the models and their ensembles agreed that 94L would eventually move into the Carolinas. Now, I’m not so sure. As 94L gets closer, the steering pattern starts to break down with two high-pressure ridges pushing toward each other north of the storm. Because of this, models are splitting into three different scenarios.

The first (and most likely at about 50% chance) has 94L moving into the Carolinas and then hooking left into the mountains. This wouldn’t be anything like Helene, not even close, but it could bring moderate flooding to parts of the mountains, parts of the foothills, and some areas along the Piedmont of SC/NC. This concern is slightly elevated due to the incoming predecessor rain event of 1-2 inches for most of the Carolinas this weekend so 94L would be adding onto these rain totals.

The second (around 25% chance) has 94L stalling just offshore or right along the Carolina coast. Since we’re already expecting a predecessor rain event of 1–2 inches this weekend, I'll repeact again that adding 94L’s rainfall on top could create a much more serious flooding event along the coast and for inland areas along the I-95.

The third (also around 25% chance) has 94L stalling earlier, a couple hundred miles offshore, waiting for Hurricane Humberto to break down the high-pressure ridge near Bermuda. In this case, 94L would follow Humberto’s path and escape out to sea, greatly reducing impacts on the Carolinas. Some models are beginning to suggest this, even though it may sound unlikely.

So yeah. There you have it. Three different ways this could happen. Sorry it's not one clear answer right now... but that's what we have right now. It is worth noting that Weather Prediction Center (WPC) of NOAA is already going ahead with 7-day rain forecast of widespread 5-10 inches across both Carolinas. It seems like a given that we're going to see a lot of rain in most scenarios and that we should be ready for flash flood events breaking out across the Carolinas. I don't think we'll see widespread and historic levels of Matthew (2016), Florence (2018), or Helene (2024)... but it is likely we could see extreme hyperlocal flooding events like what Chantal (2025) did along Haw River and Eno River earlier this summer. The potential stall of 94L somewhere definitely has me nervous for that. Hopefully I'm wrong or that 94L will try to escape out to the sea... we'll see. Another update to come soon.

INVEST 94L UPDATE #1 (9/25/2025):Invest 94L is currently moving over the mountains of Hispaniola. However, with the "ce...
09/25/2025

INVEST 94L UPDATE #1 (9/25/2025):

Invest 94L is currently moving over the mountains of Hispaniola. However, with the "center" of disorganized Invest 94L moving off the island, our suite of models are now starting to reach a consensus. Most of this morning's model runs are in an agreement that the Carolinas are now looking at a direct impact from Invest 94L. There’s still some time for slight adjustments in the track so stay tuned. Intensity forecast remains a huge uncertainty and it's unfortunate because we're probably 4 to 5 days away from landfall. Everything from a robust tropical storm to a major hurricane is still on the table. I'm always suspicious of the Gulf Stream so we'll see how the intensification will go. It may not go. Models are still sorting that out and we need more data. Just keep an eye on this storm, y'all. Another update will come tonight.

Two tropical invests are being monitored in the Atlantic. Invest 93L in the east has a 90% chance of developing into a t...
09/24/2025

Two tropical invests are being monitored in the Atlantic. Invest 93L in the east has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical system within the next 7 days, while Invest 94L in the west has an 80% chance. Currently, 93L is close to becoming a storm (will be named Humberto at 5 pm ET) and is expected to gradually strengthen over the next few days. After that is when things get chaotic on models where even I don't know what to expect.

Most models indicate that Invest 93L (Humberto) will recurve northward in a few days, while also developing Invest 94L into a storm directly to its west. Not all models or ensemble members agree, but a majority do show development. Where they diverge is in what happens next... and for a good reason! It’s rare to see two tropical systems develop this close together with so little spacing. The American model (GFS) shows Invest 93L (Humberto) shearing apart Invest 94L, absorbing its energy, and then strengthening as it curves away from the U.S. mainland. The European model (ECMWF), however, depicts the two systems “dancing” around each other, with erratic tracks. Some ensemble members even take one of the systems inland into the Carolinas.

This interaction is known as the "Fujiwhara effect", named after the Japanese meteorologist who first observed binary interactions between Pacific typhoons. It is more commonly seen in the western Pacific, where storms have more room to interact. In the Atlantic, however, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a true Fujiwhara effect event. This often results in storms either merging into a single storm (GFS) or dacing around each other (ECMWF). In either case, we're about to see a rare meteorological phenomenon for the Atlantic Ocean. We just need more time to see how models play out the Fujiwhara effect and to nail down our final tracks.

EDIT: It's probably worth noting that neither storms get absurbly strong in either Fujiwhara scenarios. It will not be like movies where two storms interacting with each other turn into one super hurricane... I promise :)

20 years ago, on this day, Hurricane Katrina reached peak intensity of 175 mph maximum sustained wind and minimum atmosp...
08/28/2025

20 years ago, on this day, Hurricane Katrina reached peak intensity of 175 mph maximum sustained wind and minimum atmospheric pressure of 902 mb. New Orleans was right in front of an approaching Category 5 hurricane. Mass evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people was under the way. Most of that population never came back home and, eventually, decided to stay in cities they evacuated to.

It was also on this day when the National Weather Service in New Orleans wrote that famous "doomsday" weather forecast discussion, predicting a catastrophic humanitarian crisis for Louisiana and Mississippi. It was surreal following along with all of this on the Weather Channel when I was just ten years old. I still remember sharing my daily updates on Katrina with my deaf classmates as part of our "current events" discussions first thing each morning.

A cold front is pushing through this afternoon. The result? Tomorrow should be gorgeous and sunny, with highs in the upp...
08/25/2025

A cold front is pushing through this afternoon. The result? Tomorrow should be gorgeous and sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. More importantly, dew points will stay in the 50s across North Carolina and the upper 50s to low 60s in South Carolina. Only the immediate coastline will hang onto summer-like conditions, but even there it will feel nice. Gorgeous weather should continue over the next few days. It's not quite yet fall weather, but it does signal the end of our peak summer humidity.

On a bright side, if you're getting sick of the heat and the humidity, there's a huge relief on the way with multiple co...
08/20/2025

On a bright side, if you're getting sick of the heat and the humidity, there's a huge relief on the way with multiple cold front passages during next week and into early September. There will be multiple days of perfect weather with high temperatures in 70s and low temperatures in 50s with the humidity feeling very comfortable. Higher elevation areas will get their first hint of chilly weather, even. I'm a huge lover of autumn seasons so I'm really looking forward to this one!

HURRICANE ERIN UPDATE #7 (8/20/2025):Really not a lot of new information to add. Erin made several attempts to undergo ...
08/20/2025

HURRICANE ERIN UPDATE #7 (8/20/2025):

Really not a lot of new information to add. Erin made several attempts to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle and finally succeeded. While the maximum wind speed has lowered to 110 mph, making it a Category 2 storm, this also created a much larger system with stronger overall wind fields and bigger waves. The Outer Banks are still expected to see a brief period of tropical storm force winds during Erin's closest approach 12 to 24 hours from now.

Erin is already wreaking havoc on the Outer Banks with coastal flooding and beach erosion as the northern half of the storm pushes water into the barrier islands. Yesterday, storm chaser Paige Berdomas took this picture of a flooded beachfront in Buxton, and you can see massive waves towering in the distance. People often do not realize that storm surge levels usually do not include waves on top of them, so we are looking at 2 to 4 feet of storm surge with waves of 10 feet or more crashing above it.

Impacts will become more severe today and tomorrow, with several washouts of Highway 12 expected near Rodanthe, Avon, and Buxton. An NCDOT traffic camera shows road crews already struggling to keep up with beach erosion on Highway 12 near Rodanthe, as waves continue to pound against reinforced sand dunes built by the state to prevent a washout. Losing this section of road near Rodanthe would likely cut off the rest of the Outer Banks for a few days until crews can re-clear the road and repair the damage.

HURRICANE ERIN UPDATE #6 (8/18/2025):The chance of a direct landfall on the Carolinas is now zero. However, that doesn’...
08/18/2025

HURRICANE ERIN UPDATE #6 (8/18/2025):

The chance of a direct landfall on the Carolinas is now zero. However, that doesn’t mean North Carolina won’t experience impacts from Erin. The Outer Banks have issued a mandatory evacuation for visitors today, with one for residents taking effect tomorrow. Large waves are expected to wash out sections of Highway 12 and cut off remote Outer Banks communities from the mainland. Waves could reach 15–20 feet in the surf zone, where they break just before reaching the beach. As a result, the risk of coastal erosion and flooding is very real. This surf event is expected to begin Tuesday and last through Thursday. Elsewhere in the Carolinas, there will be an extremely high risk of rip currents, making ocean swimming unsafe for several days this week. I will defer to National Weather Service office in Morehead City for their informative graphics on these risks. Fun fact... I worked at this office for a summer as a student volunteer and learned a lot about surf weather forecasting!

Address

Raleigh, NC

Website

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Meteorologist Kyle Noel posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Shortcuts

Share

Category

Bio

Thank you for liking my page! A bit about myself... I’m a current meteorologist working for Athenium Analytics out of my home in Raleigh, NC area. My main job is to verify weather data for insurance claims, but I also write hurricane forecast bulletins to our clients. At nights, I’m a graduate student working on GIS courses at North Carolina State University. When my life isn’t busy, I like to write weather updates for family and friends with my free time. Glad to have you aboard!

Education:

Graduate certificate in GIS - North Carolina State University (December 2020)

Bachelor of Science in Atmospheric Sciences - University of North Carolina at Asheville (May 2017)