Meteorologist Kyle Noel

Meteorologist Kyle Noel B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences - University of North Carolina at Asheville (2017). M.S in GIS and Technology - NC State University (2023).

I like to post weather updates for family and friends with my free time.

Yesterday was yet another active day of severe weather. Honestly, the month of July has been insanely active. One of the...
07/29/2026

Yesterday was yet another active day of severe weather. Honestly, the month of July has been insanely active. One of these days, I should put together a map of all storm reports from July.

🟨 7/28/2026 (TUESDAY) - SEVERE WX THREAT LEVEL 2/5 🟨Okay, y'all, we do have something to keep an eye on with yet another...
07/28/2026

🟨 7/28/2026 (TUESDAY) - SEVERE WX THREAT LEVEL 2/5 🟨

Okay, y'all, we do have something to keep an eye on with yet another round of storms later today. This is a late arriving event with storms coming in from our northwest. Eventually, they'll enter the Carolinas and become severe-warned. There's also a slightly higher than normal risk of a tornado or two with these storms, especially in northwestern North Carolina. Otherwise, they're just your typical summer storms.

THREAT LEVELS:

TORNADO - 2/5
WIND - 3/5
HAIL - 1/5

07/25/2026

Today should be our last day of the ongoing gloomy, rainy weather before our stalled front is out of the region. Next couple of days, starting tomorrow, should be a steady return back to our usual summer weather with upper 80s to low 90s being our temperature and a lot more sunshine.

I'm a little late to this one... but this ongoing tropical system is pretty ehh... but still not to be underestimated, o...
07/20/2026

I'm a little late to this one... but this ongoing tropical system is pretty ehh... but still not to be underestimated, of course. It will attempt to strengthen and become "Bertha" over the next 48 hours or so while facing a moderate northeasterly wind shear. The "steering" pattern will soon turn the storm westward along the Gulf Coast. This should result in tropical storm conditions from the Florida Panhandle to Texas.

Key points:

1) Storm surge of a few feet right on the coastline from Florida to Louisiana, with Texas a possibility in the future.

2) Short-lived tornadoes expected along the Gulf Coast.

3) Inland flooding from heavy rainstorms, especially between Panama City, FL to Lake Charles, LA.

4) Weak to moderate tropical storm-force wind that could bring down trees and power lines.

07/12/2026

Should be another active afternoon of storms here in the Carolinas. We're once again in level 2 of 5 for the severe weather threat. Expect lightning, severe wind gusts, and intense downpours if you find yourself in a storm.

Today, our heat wave really cranks up. We should be seeing widespread 100°F+ observations with the heat index approachin...
07/03/2026

Today, our heat wave really cranks up. We should be seeing widespread 100°F+ observations with the heat index approaching 110°F in spots along the NC/VA border. As a result, extreme heat warning is in effect for these areas and including cities of Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Durham, and Raleigh. Please be careful outside today, y'all.

Image 1: NWS forecast for air temperature at 4 pm today
Image 2: NWS forecast for heat index at 4 pm today
Image 3: NWS warnings/advisories

So the "heat dome" is downtrending a bit as we get closer to this heat wave. I should've seen that one coming with our t...
06/30/2026

So the "heat dome" is downtrending a bit as we get closer to this heat wave. I should've seen that one coming with our typical medium range bias on our classic global models (ECMWF and GFS). We're slowly walking away from a surefire historic event, but still, it's a very dangerous excessive heat event with widespread 100+ in the Carolinas from Thursday to Sunday, plus heat index pushing into 105-110 range.

Here are screenshots of NWS forecasts (NDFD) for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday at 2 pm. Add about a degree or two to these numbers for maximum temperature values at these locations.

I'll provide a bit more information tomorrow, but for now, definitely check out this graphic from NWS about the upcoming...
06/30/2026

I'll provide a bit more information tomorrow, but for now, definitely check out this graphic from NWS about the upcoming heat wave. Most of us outside of the mountains should be reaching 100+ from Thursday to Sunday.

🟨 6/28/2026 (SUNDAY) - SEVERE WX THREAT LEVEL 2/5 🟨Today will feature another round of scattered storms, although the co...
06/28/2026

🟨 6/28/2026 (SUNDAY) - SEVERE WX THREAT LEVEL 2/5 🟨

Today will feature another round of scattered storms, although the coverage seems smaller and thinner. Storm intensity should be of normal summer storms with a couple of them becoming severe.

For what it's worth, we do have an area of interest for potential tropical development just off the Carolinas. A couple ...
06/27/2026

For what it's worth, we do have an area of interest for potential tropical development just off the Carolinas. A couple of model ensembles, especially some of our AI model suites like Google DeepMind, are hinting at something. However, the signal isn't very strong yet and could disappear just as quickly as it appeared. As a result, the National Hurricane Center is giving this area a 0% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next seven days.

It's worth keeping an eye on for now, but there's nothing to worry about at this point.

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