Sean Sublette, Meteorologist

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Sean Sublette, Meteorologist Owner, Sublette Weather and Consulting. Helping you weather the digital world. subletteweather.com

22/01/2025
Friday morning post for Virginia. The polar vortex is an area of extremely cold air, deep through the atmosphere, encirc...
17/01/2025

Friday morning post for Virginia.

The polar vortex is an area of extremely cold air, deep through the atmosphere, encircling the area within several hundred miles of the north pole.

Wind around it travels in waves north & south away from the pole. On occasion, a wave swings farther south or breaks away, sending polar air south.

So yes. Very cold early next week.

15/01/2025

Well done, Brad. I may just have to root for Ohio State next week. :)

Monday morning (1/13)Overview of this week's weather in RVA: Still cold. Particularly tomorrow & Wednesday.Next system t...
13/01/2025

Monday morning (1/13)

Overview of this week's weather in RVA: Still cold. Particularly tomorrow & Wednesday.

Next system to watch closely comes this weekend. For the moment, it looks like rain. But low confidence in that right now.

7am Saturday snow reports in southeastern Virginia via NWS.2-4" looks like it held for most of RVA5.2" report in Petersb...
11/01/2025

7am Saturday snow reports in southeastern Virginia via NWS.

2-4" looks like it held for most of RVA
5.2" report in Petersburg (a smidgen more was expected there)
3-5" on the Eastern Shore
1-3" across most of Hampton Roads.

6:55am Saturday in Richmond. Snow is finished.Just measured 2.5" near Midlothian (pic is mine).Sky turns sunny later thi...
11/01/2025

6:55am Saturday in Richmond.
Snow is finished.

Just measured 2.5" near Midlothian (pic is mine).
Sky turns sunny later this morning.
Afternoon temperature around 38°.

Clear off stuff this afternoon if you can — we're down near 20° tomorrow morning — slush and surface snow will turn to hard ice.

Thursday afternoon RVA snow update. Small nudge.Still looks like a Friday evening and overnight snowfall. Effectively do...
09/01/2025

Thursday afternoon RVA snow update. Small nudge.

Still looks like a Friday evening and overnight snowfall.
Effectively done at dawn Saturday.

But overall, would play the odds this way:

• 20 percent: 3-6 inches
• 60 percent: 1-3 inches
• 20 percent: Coating to an inch

Probably on the high side of that range *south* of RVA. Petersburg, Prince George, Nottoway, Dinwiddie.

Lower end of that range heading north from Ashland or northwest to Charlottesville.

You can make a case for 2-4" in RVA (as many colleagues have), but will await afternoon data before going all in. Other ...
09/01/2025

You can make a case for 2-4" in RVA (as many colleagues have), but will await afternoon data before going all in. Other change is the speed. Precip looks done by dawn Saturday.

Not really an ice situation.

The odds:

10 percent: More than 4"
30 percent: 2-4"
50 percent: 1-2"
10 percent: Less 1"

Good reminder from Brad in Charlotte.
08/01/2025

Good reminder from Brad in Charlotte.

People love or hate snow, but one thing is for sure: everyone freaks out regardless. I always like to point out how minor the actual differences are in forecasting measurable snow or a few inches actually can be. The liquid-to-snow equivalent is, on average, 10:1. It can and often is more or less, but that's the general average. Check out how minor that amount of moisture can be versus snowfall.

4pm Wednesday. Just a few tweaks to the idea for Richmond.
08/01/2025

4pm Wednesday.
Just a few tweaks to the idea for Richmond.

Quick look at the data early Wednesday morning. The broad idea is still the same for Richmond.Snow likely in a window fr...
08/01/2025

Quick look at the data early Wednesday morning. The broad idea is still the same for Richmond.

Snow likely in a window from Friday night to Saturday. A fresh coating to a few inches.

Probably no ice or rain this time.

Do remember: A little nudge in storm track moves that total up... or down. But this seems to be the most likely scenario as of Wednesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon post.

Still a lot to work out, but another legit accumulating snow threat is ahead in next 3-4 days in and around Richmond.

Some preliminary thoughts:

Periodically, I give public presentations on weather and climate.This bullet point from my FAQ slide seems relevant. :)
07/01/2025

Periodically, I give public presentations on weather and climate.

This bullet point from my FAQ slide seems relevant. :)

Tuesday afternoon post.Still a lot to work out, but another legit accumulating snow threat is ahead in next 3-4 days in ...
07/01/2025

Tuesday afternoon post.

Still a lot to work out, but another legit accumulating snow threat is ahead in next 3-4 days in and around Richmond.

Some preliminary thoughts:

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Videos

Snowing. Cool.

Thursday afternoon 5pm. No significant changes. Storm is behaving as expected. Helene crossed into Cat 3 territory earlier this afternoon... strongest winds now 125 mph... and it comes onshore tonight. A difficult 24 hours are ahead from the Florida Big Bend through the western Carolinas. Hope all will respect the warnings. Still looking for local info? NWS Southern Region has a good portal at: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical

Come see us in Richmond at the end of October! Big thanks to Regarding Weather for putting this together every year... and it keeps getting better!

1pm Thursday. New Tornado Watch for Richmond and areas north to Fredericksburg, south into NC, west toward Lynchburg, and east to the Middle Peninsula and Hampton Roads. This goes until 8pm this evening. Remember, a Watch means conditions are ** increasingly favorable ** for the development of tornadoes AND individual storms/squalls with damaging straight line winds over the coming several hours. At this time, there are no active Warnings, BUT there are 2 large spiral bands of rain coming north out of eastern NC right now that very much have our attention for later this afternoon. Biggest concern in the next few hours is from Petersburg to Surry and Suffolk — south to the NC state line.

Rain outlook for Virginia from Tropical Storm Debby
Rain outlook for Virginia from Tropical Storm Debby

When and where the rain will be heaviest, and when flooding potential will be worst. Recorded 3:15pm Tuesday.

Thanks to Jennifer Narramore from Tornado Talk for joining our Across The Sky podcast this week. Reminding us that tornadoes leave deep human scars over the long term. Whether it was 5 months — or 50 years ago. Listen wherever you get your podcasts: Apple: https://tinyurl.com/yeaxdzkd Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/y5yubxp2

Quickie explainer on the aurora borealis.

What is a severe thunderstorm, anyway? And why are there different levels of warnings? And what does it mean when my phone screams at me, and the screen turns white with black text? All those answers in 90 seconds.

Thunderstorms getting an apparently slow start on the Plains this afternoon have been suppressed by a cap in the atmosphere. And quick explainer on what that means.

A quick bit about what different EF-scale tornadoes can do to your house. And a brief acknowledgement to the scale's namesake.

Thunderstorm season is here! New Across The Sky Podcast with Meteorologist and Blixtexperten and Chris Vagasky — tackling those pesky lightning myths. Get it wherever you get your podcasts: Apple: https://tinyurl.com/yeaxdzkd Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/y5yubxp2

As part of the NASA Earth Day media outreach, I talked to Dr. Kate Calvin about the new PACE satellite that launched a couple of months ago, and its importance in monitoring phytoplankton in oceans & lakes to better manage algal blooms, and particulates in the atmosphere to improve air quality forecasts. https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/weather/nasa-ocean-pace-algal-blooms-air-pollution/article_4a6e0408-0266-11ef-b48d-83ed8c2b29f2.html

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