Kevin Myatt's Weather Wonders

08/05/2025

Hotter temperatures aren't coming back anytime soon, but rain has already returned this morning. Moisture overrunning the cool wedge parked east of the Appalachians will bring periods of rain this week as temperatures remain mostly in the 60s and 70s across Southwest and Southside Virginia. Having the first 5-7 days of August below 80 is a rare to unprecedented occurrence at many locations in our region.

Confidence is increasing that rainfall amounts will increase across the region through Thursday. Right now, at least a quarter to half inch of rainfall is anticipated in most places through Thursday evening, with the highest amounts seen from the Grayson Highlands, southward into Northwest North Carolina. In this region, between 1 and 2 inches of rain will likely fall. However, the probabilities are better than 50/50 that at least 2 inches of rain may be seen across parts of Watauga, Wilkes, and Yadkin Counties, and at least a half inch of rain may be seen in Southeast West Virginia. These higher amounts may result in localized flooding of poor drainage areas.

08/02/2025

Cooler weather has arrived for Southwest/Southside Virginia on the heels of some patchy but copious downpours on Friday. Most locations won't reach 80 for a second consecutive day on this Saturday and any warmup back through the 80s will be slow next week. Drier air is slowly working in from the north and northeast, but it will have some difficulty pushing out the humid air from the past few weeks, especially in the southwest corner of the state. Easterly upslope flow over the mountains and a lingering trough will trigger afternoon showers and storms west of Interstate 77 with maybe a few sprinkly showers a little farther east and north on this Saturday. (Perhaps some rain/lightning delay potential for the Braves-Reds baseball game at Bristol Motor Speedway, but hopefully that mostly clears out by evening). Less of this on Sunday and Monday looks like the driest/least humid day, with highs mostly mid 70s to lower 80s highs after 50s-lower 60s lows, before more sticky-stormy weather -- not as hot as last week, likely staying below 90 in most of our region -- creeps in through the mid to late part of next week.

(Weather map for early Saturday evening courtesy of NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Inside red line signifies chance of thunderstorms. Light green is lower chance/mostly light rain potential, darker green where heavier rain may occur.)

07/31/2025

A couple more days of sticky-stormy weather for Southwest/Southside Virginia, then much cooler for the weekend, and drying out for most Sunday-Monday. Maybe just a "hint" of fall with a couple 50s lows/70s highs days in many areas, and heat will be slow to return next week. This week's Cardinal News weather colun (and a couple of bonus weather items in the comments).

Low temperatures dip into the 50s and highs stay below 80 in much of Southwest and Southside Virginia by Sunday.

07/28/2025

Sticky-stormy weather is back for Southwest/Southside Virginia -- but there is a major pattern shift coming that will bring a taste of fall by the weekend.

Through at least Thursday, we will see upper 80s-mid 90s highs, near-70 dew points occasionally poking toward the mid 70s, and daily rounds of scattered afternoon thunderstorms (Photo below is storm near Arcadia late Sunday, my younger son and I rode through after some creek-splashing time in the North Creek area). The afternoon storminess, with spotty downpours, more clouds and gusty outflows, will keep most temperatures from pushing toward 100 -- perhaps somewhere in Southside scrapes it -- as seemed likely a few days ago, but it will be miserably sticky as it is.

A cold front approaching late Thursday and early Friday will increase showers and storms ahead of it, but be followed by the coolest air mass we've seen since early June, with weekend highs likely staying below 80 for most and some low temperatures dropping into the 50s. The heat dome high pressure system over the central U.S. will be slipping westward, leading to cooler northwest to southeast flow out of central Canada. Temperatures will inevitably move upward with time but this cooler to not-so-hot spell could last much of the first half of August.

07/24/2025

A little hotter on Thursday for Southwest/Southside Virginia, much hotter by Friday-Saturday (some mid-upper 90s in lower elevations), and steadily more humid through the weekend with scattered afternoon/evening storms returning.

Early next week looks very hot, perhaps similar to the late June heat wave with 97-100ish temperatures in the Roanoke Valley and east of the Blue Ridge -- but there are some signs of a much cooler weather pattern setting up in early-mid August.

This week's Cardinal News weather column touches on the retooling hot summer weather pattern in days ahead plus the recent highly variable spates of stormy rain.

It’s not quite as hot and less humid for a couple days, but temperatures soar again by the end of this week and sticky-stormy weather rebuilds into next week.

07/21/2025

The persistent sticky-stormy weather that has affected Southwest/Southside Virginia every day but a few since late June is taking a step back through the middle of this week (Tuesday-Thursday) as a "backdoor" cold front slides in from the north. The front will help kick up one more day of scattered showers/storms on this Monday, before passing through by early Tuesday (NOAA weather map below shows it well south, and stalled, by Tuesday evening), allowing high pressure to the north (the blue H's) to push in somewhat cooler and less humid air. We're talking dew points dropping from persistent 70-70 range to more like 60-65, and afternoon high temperatures mostly in low-mid 80s by Wednesday, so not a dramatic cooldown/dryout but take what you can get when you can get it.

The arrival of the backdoor front represents a reordering of our weather pattern, with more focus on a growing heat dome high pressure system over the central U.S. rather than the Bermuda high that has been funneling in the super sticky air. The result will be a surge of heat toward the weekend that could bring mid-upper 90s highs into our region's lower elevations. The present of the heat dome high pressure system west of us may spin down additional backdoor fronts next week, cooling New England but stalling near us, and/or storm clusters moving southeast from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. Moisture will slowly build over the weekend and early next week with afternoon showers and storms redeveloping. It may not be quite as tropically sticky as we've experienced lately, but combined with the hotter temperatures it will be sticky enough for discomfort and heat stress.

Long term, the heat dome high looks likely to get stuck west of us, with occasional surges of heat interspersed with stormy periods near fronts to close out July and begin August.

07/20/2025

There was serious flooding on Friday in Russell County with multiple injuries and swift-water rescues, as reported in this Cardinal News article. There were reports of flooding on Saturday in the Galax and Bassett areas, among other scattered locations around Southwest/Southside Virginia. All the result of streaky but intense rainfall from afternoon thunderstorms in super-juiced air. We may dial back the coverage and intensity of scattered afternoon storms at least some on this hot Sunday (some mid 90s in lower elevations) before more numerous storms on Monday. Then, a backdoor cold front brings a brief 2- or 3-day not-quite-as-hot, not-as-humid break Tuesday-Thursday before heat and humidity surges again toward next weekend.

A donation center for relief supplies has been set up at the St. Paul Town Hall.

07/17/2025

Same song and dance into the foreseeable future for Southwest/Southside Virginia. Subtle atmospheric features will shift around where there is a somewhat a greater chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, but there is a chance for torrential rain, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning in any location each day through this week, the weekend, and into next weekend. And your particular spot could alsp stay sunny or be on the periphery of someone else's storm. But it will be sticky and seasonably to slightly-above-normal hot for everyone, mostly upper 80s and lower 90s across the region, with muggy nights that don't drop below 70 in many of the urban areas and lower elevations. This week's Cardinal News weather column below:

Flooding, gusty winds and dangerous lightning for some, a few distant rumbles and maybe sprinkles in the dust for others.

07/15/2025

This fire in the Cave Spring area of Roanoke County appears to have been caused by a bolt of lightning that struck several miles outside its parent storm after 9 p.m. on his Monday. I was pumping gas at the Kroger on Brambleton Avenue when this bolt flashed brilliantly with a powerful concussive blast of thunder, the lightning detector on radar showing it less than a mile away. (See first comment below). Thankfully the house fire was put out in 20 minutes and two occupants of the home were not injured. Another reminder of the dangers of lightning not just in storms but in the area around them. There had been no previous bolts of close lightning before this hit.

07/11/2025

Pretty much median summer weather for Southwest/Southside Virginia this weekend. A bit less coverage of storms the next couple days then a bit more on Sunday, temperatures mostly mid 80s to lower 90s highs across the region. Plenty of opportunity to enjoy outdoor summer activities but have a plan to move indoors if a storm happens to develop or move near you.

Typical summertime afternoon thunderstorms are expected both today and Saturday, but will be isolated in coverage. The best chance for rain will be in the NC Mountains both days, due to higher moisture content in the area. Sunday has a better chance of widespread showers/storms, as an upper-level trough across the Ohio Valley will aid in storm development. Highs will be near to slightly above normal each day, in the 80s to low 90s.

07/10/2025

Even as the potential for locally flooding rain and thunderstorms continue on this Thursday, especially east of the Blue Ridge, here is a look back to Sunday's Tropical Strom Chantal-related flooding in central North Carolina (more occurred in a similar region on Wednesday) and Halifax County, Virginia, and some reflections on last week's horrific flooding catastrophe in Texas last week, in this week's Cardinal News weather column.

Halifax County in Virginia experienced flooded roads as the plume of heaviest rain in central North Carolina edged over the state line on Sunday.

07/09/2025

The influence of an upper-level trough and a stalling front will enhance the daily risk of afternoon storms on this Wednesday and likely Thursday also. Not every location will see heavy rain and/or gusty winds but some will, and most spots will get at least some rain and hear thunder for a while. 80s-lower 90s highs and chances of mostly afternoon and evening storms appear likely to continue through the weekend.

A busy Wednesday is ahead, as severe storms are expected to develop early afternoon and push east into the Piedmont this evening as an upper-level shortwave trough enhances lift. Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, and while hail is possible, it is less likely. Heavy rainfall of around 1-2" (with locally higher amounts) is also expected, particularly along/east of the Blue Ridge. Flash flooding will be likely there, due to the recent heavy rains across the area, along with high rainfall rates in the heaviest storms today.