Kevin Myatt's Weather Wonders

09/25/2025

We're looking back at Hurricane Helene's inland impacts on Southwest/Southside Virginia, and ongoing recovery and rebuilding, in a series of article in Cardinal News this week as the anniversary of its impact approaches. Today's weekly weather is a look back at some of the meteorological implications.

Speaking of meteorological implications -- an atmospheric traffic jam involving a stubborn upper-level low and possibly two tropical systems in the western Atlantic may keep us with occasional sogginess through the weekend into early next week. It looks doubtful as of now that we will be directly affected by a tropical system, but it does look showery to downright rainy at times -- After some easing of showers on Friday, Saturday may well turn into a rainy day now, after looking earlier like we'd get this upper-level low to move east by then. Still some confusing factors at work that could shift, but it does look like we are going to get needed rain to ease dryness (some places around already have, others not so much) and let's keep an eye on the tropical aspects, especially if you have travel plans eastward toward the coast this weekend to about the middle of next week.

A year ago this week, a powerful hurricane being absorbed into a stubborn upper-level low-pressure system led to a catastrophic regional weather event in the Appalachians.

09/22/2025

We may finally have significant rain to relieve recent dryness this week, but there are still some questions about how this will evolve, whether it will be a widespread, general soaking rain by Thursday or so or if it will just be periods of showers. A trough of low pressure aloft will stubbornly move eastward this week, sweeping abundant moisture ahead of it across much of the central and eastern U.S. We'll begin seeing chances of showers in Southwest/Southside Virginia by Tuesday, gradually increasing Wednesday with the best chance of rain Thursday into Friday. The low pressure may become partially or entirely cut off from the jet stream flow which would cause it to linger more slowly, or it may just move through slowly but steadily, in which case it should mostly out of the way by Saturday and Sunday. Also some variances on forecast guidance about its placement north or south, whether we get it the main plume of moisture and stay there for a few hours or even a day or two. In any event, this is the best chance of a widespread soaking rain in many weeks, and early projections are for most locations in our region to get 1-2 inches total this week but possibly more in some areas. It will be warmer and stickier than we saw most of late August and early September, 80s for many on days with sun and mostly 60s at night, but not like the intense heat and steamy humidity of July.

09/18/2025

Coastal storm left most of western Virginia with little rainfall -- a little more has dribbled down with southward moving rain showers on the backside rotation of the low on this early Wednesday evening. Dryness starting to become an issue over much of Southwest/Southside Virginia as cool and dry patterns are becoming more warm and dry. But we've seen as recently as last fall how things can turn too soggy way too fast if tropical systems become involved. No sign of a tropical system or any other kind of weather pattern delivering a widespread, soaking rain to our region anytime soon. Enjoy some nice days outside in the meantime. This week's Cardinal News weather column linked below.

A coastal storm failed to deliver more than sprinkly rain over most of Southwest and Southside Virginia this week.

09/16/2025

Gray streaks are where radar shows it rained at least a tiny amount Monday PM-Tuesday AM. That was .03 inch at Roanoke airport , for example. Dry air being circulated down on the west side of the coastal low is going to cut down on showers west of US 29 corridor (Danville/Lynchburg/Charlottesville). This definitely looks nothing like the soaking rain that is needed in much of Southwest/Southside Virginia, maybe a bit more toward the eastern side of Southside, nearer the flash flood watches that are up for southeastern Virginia. (NWS Doppler radar precipitation total view courtesy of RadarScope.)

09/15/2025

A chance of rain showers has emerged for Southwest and Southside Virginia from Monday evening through early Wednesday with a low-pressure system moving along the East Coast. The best chances of rain will be east of the Blue Ridge closest to the low, but some showers will be possible across most of southern and western Virginia. As noted in our last post, many locations are getting dry after weeks of minimal rain, but amounts are likely to be under a half-inch except maybe some spots well east of the Blue Ridge. The low will circulate in somewhat cooler air from the northeast that will likely limit any convection that could develop heavier thunderstorms. The latter part of the week resumes the warmer, drier trend of recent days with another chance of showers possible by the weekend with an approaching cold front. (Maps courtesy of NOAA)

09/12/2025

After weeks with minimal rain, dryness staring to become an issue again in a large part of Virginia, as show on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map. There is no significant rain in sight as the weather pattern is dominated by high pressure, bringing warm days and cool nights, and occasional cold fronts with cooler, drier air.

09/11/2025

Continued dry weather through the weekend for Southwest/Southside Virginia with fairly cool mornings mostly in the 50s (some 40s) and warming afternoons in the 70s and 80s -- a few spots could even scrape 90 on Sunday afternoon. A bit cooler air pushes back in early to middle part of next week.

Wrapping up the summer heat prediction contest in this week's Cardinal News weather column.

Unseasonably cool low temperatures for early September are a signal to wrap up the summer contest.

09/08/2025

Back to the calm, cool, mostly clear weather this week with 40s-50ish lows and mostly 70s highs across Southwest and Southside Virginia. As the map below shows, no rain is expected for at least 7 days. Dryness will soon start becoming a problem, if it isn't already, depending on whether your location got meaningful rain in Thursday's storms or Saturday's even spottier ones. Some signs warmer weather may rebuild late month but for now September continuing the theme that August began.

09/05/2025

Line of storms (photo from Blacksburg about 2 p.m.) got quite gusty in several locations across Southwest/Southside Virginia on Thursday with scattered reports of wind damage. Rain was briefly heavy also, though for many locations that had been a little dry over the past 2 weeks not entirely unwelcome. We get a break from showers and storms on this Friday, which may be the hottest day we've had since the cooler weather broke in late August, many 80s highs and possibly scraping 90 at a few spots east of the Blue Ridge. Saturday, unfortunately for football fans and others with outdoor interests, brings another likelihood of showers and some storms ahead of the next fall-like cold front that will return pleasant weather on Sunday into the middle of next week. There is a good chance that the heaviest rain and most lightning will shift east of the Blue Ridge by the evening.

09/04/2025

It will be getting pretty warm (80s highs, a stray 90 or two?) and perhaps a little sticky in Southwest/Southside Virginia with some scattered showers and thunderstorms for a couple of days to close out this week before the next cold front arrives over the weekend to refresh the cooler, drier weather we've been having. This week's weather column in Cardinal News takes stock of how historic August was for coolness at several regional localities, plus ponders about whether it means anything for the coming winter.

It was the coolest August on record at Danville and among a few chillier Augusts in many decades of records at several other Virginia locations.

08/31/2025

The cooler than normal temperatures continues this week as the calendar flips from August to September. A few showers may pop up in Southwest Virginia on this August-ending Sunday afternoon with a wee bit of moisture banking against the mountains and an upper-level disturbance passing through, but those will be scattered and mostly weak. We're back to dry days with 40s-50s lows and 70s-near 80 highs until another cold front may trigger showers and a few storms on Thursday and early Friday. That front's passage will set up another mild and dry weekend. No heat waves or widespread heavy rain in sight.

08/28/2025

Wednesday morning lows included 36 at Burke's Garden -- the coldest August low there since 1989 -- and an Aug. 27 record low of 48 at Lynchburg. 40s to lower 50s lows were widespread across Southwest and Southside Virginia, and are again on this Thursday, though generally a little warmer. Normally in late August I would say enjoy this weather while it lasts, with the expectation of a hot spell in a few days, but it appears that the general idea of cool mornings and mild to somewhat warm afternoons (maybe 80ish on Friday for some) will continue well into next week at least as additional cold fronts reinforce the cool, dry air mass.

In this week's Cardinal News weather column, linked below, the last week of "meteorological summer" having no heat and no rain offers the opportunity to begin putting the 2025 summer in perspective as one that was often humid with localized downpours, but never had extraordinarily hot temperatures and didn't have as much widespread rainfall as it may have seemed to those getting the deluges.

The last week of August is bringing the opposite of the stickiness that defined much of this summer.