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09/24/2025

This afternoon's EURO 06Z model run diverges from the GFS, as it does not indicate Invest 93 being absorbed by Invest 94. Instead, it suggests two separate systems, one approaching Florida and subsequently impacting the Carolinas. We shall see which forecasting system will prove accurate.

09/24/2025

This morning's GFS 06z model run is very similar to the 00z model run, with Invest 94 being absorbed by Invest 93, which is turning out to sea. A fairly intense system is anticipated to emerge from the Caribbean around October 8th. However, it is still too far out to predict with certainty, and this could potentially be a phantom run. The Weather Weasel will provide updates as necessary.

09/24/2025

The GFS 00z model run from this morning presents an interesting scenario: Invest 94 is absorbed by Invest 93 as it curves off into the Atlantic, and towards the end of the ensemble run, a system forms from Caribbean moisture, developing into a intense system around October 8th. While this may be merely a model run, it is not a scenario that Floridians want to see, even as a hypothetical possibility.

Hurricane season is intensifying as Gabrielle weakens and moves eastward, while Invest 93 and 94 have a high likelihood ...
09/24/2025

Hurricane season is intensifying as Gabrielle weakens and moves eastward, while Invest 93 and 94 have a high likelihood of development, prompting speculation about which will be named first, with both having favorable chances of veering out to sea. Notably, Invest 94, currently situated near Florida, is displaying a slightly more western trajectory, although most models still indicate it will turn out to sea, warranting close monitoring.

Is the GFS simply doing what it typically does? Way too far out and this seems to be after the two highlighted areas fro...
09/24/2025

Is the GFS simply doing what it typically does? Way too far out and this seems to be after the two highlighted areas from the National Weather Service; perhaps some Caribbean influence, as October is the time of year when the most common storm in that area tends to form. 🙈

ENSO current predictions indicate that the blue La Nina is beginning to dominate, resulting in decreased shear in the G...
09/18/2025

ENSO current predictions indicate that the blue La Nina is beginning to dominate, resulting in decreased shear in the Gulf and heightened potential for Caribbean-Gulf activity.

La Nina is settling in. Wind shear is down around the first of the month; some models still see a system coming from the...
09/18/2025

La Nina is settling in. Wind shear is down around the first of the month; some models still see a system coming from the Caribbean and entering the Gulf. Nothing is certain yet, but this is the first time the CMC is on board. These are not forecasts; these are just model runs. Stay tuned for updates.

TROPICAL STORM UPDATE GABRIELLE STILL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 18 the center o...
09/18/2025

TROPICAL STORM UPDATE

GABRIELLE STILL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 18 the center of Gabrielle was located near 20.3, -51.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

TROPICAL STORM UPDATE we now have tropical storm Gabrielle Official summary ..GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ...
09/17/2025

TROPICAL STORM UPDATE
we now have tropical storm Gabrielle
Official summary ..GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of Gabrielle was located near 17.5, -46.6 with movement NNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

09/16/2025

This afternoon's 00z GFS model still suggests some Caribbean activity emerging into the Gulf; the 06z model offers similar support. The system remains disorganized and weak.

Intensity models shown here for Invest 92, soon to become Gabrielle most models still have the system moving out to sea.
09/16/2025

Intensity models shown here for Invest 92, soon to become Gabrielle
most models still have the system moving out to sea.

The National Hurricane Service is currently monitoring two areas of interest, with the first spot, highlighted in red, e...
09/16/2025

The National Hurricane Service is currently monitoring two areas of interest, with the first spot, highlighted in red, expected to develop into Gabrielle shortly. According to intensity models, the system has the potential to strengthen into a hurricane, although most models indicate it will move out to sea. The additional area being observed will be monitored closely, and updates will follow.

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