NorCast Weather NJ

NorCast Weather NJ Your source for accurate, fun & hyper-local weather for NJ, SE PA and DE

BACK AND FORTHAs far as the big picture is concerned, this is a really good spot to be in. Having this back and forth be...
08/19/2025

BACK AND FORTH

As far as the big picture is concerned, this is a really good spot to be in. Having this back and forth between above and below average precip chances gives us the nice balance between not drying out and having time for things to settle down into the water table between rounds of rain.

8.19 5PM

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-Britney

PAW-SITIVELY PERFECTNo, it might not be the most visually stunning evening walk, but if you're trying to burn some energ...
08/19/2025

PAW-SITIVELY PERFECT

No, it might not be the most visually stunning evening walk, but if you're trying to burn some energy and not work up too much of a sweat, this evening will be perfect. We'll stay cool and cloudy, with temperatures already dipping down into the 60s by sunset.

8.19 4PM

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-Britney

STEADY AS SHE GOES...NO CHANGESWe are now roughly 36 hours out from the first residual impacts of Erin and the forecast ...
08/19/2025

STEADY AS SHE GOES...NO CHANGES
We are now roughly 36 hours out from the first residual impacts of Erin and the forecast is locked as far as I'm concerned. The storm passes WELL off-shore so NO direct impact. Still looking at dangerous rip currents, waves 10'+ and a couple rounds of tidal flooding. Borderline major possible in Cape May Co...but moderate is acheivable for many. Wed/Thur after 6pm looks to be the time we need to watch for flooding.

Gusts 30-40mph likely. Wouldn't be shocked if there was a wind advisory issued for the beaches.

Erin is a Category 2. She's weakened. If we can KEEP it weakened, the overall impacts will be a little less extensive for everyone from NJ to NC.

8.19 2:11PM
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TIDAL FLOODING INCOMINGYesterday and today we've seen tides come up enough for water in the roads and that has NOTHING t...
08/19/2025

TIDAL FLOODING INCOMING
Yesterday and today we've seen tides come up enough for water in the roads and that has NOTHING to do with Erin...The higher tides will come on Wed/Thu...especially Thursday evening. That's the one I'm really keeping my eye on.

Erin will be a MASSIVE storm off-shore and as expected, the worst wind, rain & overall conditions will remain WELL off to our east...we really dodged a bullet with this one...we are still going to get the "side effects" or the residual impact and that has been discussed since day one. We've had to change numbers around a bit based on track but the overall message remains the same.

We know there will be tidal flooding. That is a given since we've got tremendous wave action (10-15' waves closeby) AND the new moon...the new moon is the kicker because these tide heights would be much loser if we were between lunar cycles...just bad timing.

Tidal guidance isn't great beyond 2 days out so I've held off until now to get into the details...still plenty of time to prep.

Looks like solid minor for the North Jersey coastline...Monmouth, Ocean counties. The farther SOUTH you go, the higher those tides will be. Thinking moderate in Atlantic and Northern Cape May counties...some of our SOUTHERN most islands could very well see borderline major for a couple hours Thu evening.

When it comes to flooding, I never joke around. I will ALWAYS urge you to prepare accordingly and hope for less. We know what the ocean can do, so I don't play around. 2 to 3' surge (this is water on top of normal tide)...which will it be? I don't know. If it's 2' we end up on the low end of expectations. If it's 3' it's worse.

We are NOT talking Sandy or Jonas flooding here, but the highest tides we've seen in quite a bit.

This is an aspect of the forecast that is highly variable but the most impactful so we will monitor for slight changes in either direction and keep you abreast of it all. So again while flooding is likely Wednesday, solid minor/maybe moderate, I'm really most focused on THURSDAY evening after 6pm.

8.19 10AM
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DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTSI can not make this point any clearer: If you go swimming in the ocean this week, not only are you...
08/19/2025

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
I can not make this point any clearer: If you go swimming in the ocean this week, not only are you putting yourself in danger, but you're risking the lives of people who swore an oath to save you. It's not right. Don't try and be cute or a macho man...it proves nothing. Rip currents are a real danger and they take the lives of about a hundred people each year nationally.

Rip currents form when waves push water toward the beach faster than it can drain back out. The extra water piles up near shore, and since it has to flow back to the ocean, it often finds a narrow, deeper channel or weak spot in the sandbar. That concentrated flow creates a fast-moving stream of water rushing away from the shore... a rip current.

8.19 9:30AM
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TODAY'S WEATHER NOTES-Cool temps prevail...middle to upper 70s. Cloudy skies locked in-Erin spins off-shore tomorrow and...
08/19/2025

TODAY'S WEATHER NOTES
-Cool temps prevail...middle to upper 70s. Cloudy skies locked in
-Erin spins off-shore tomorrow and Thursday
-Huge surf...breakers 10'. Angry ocean. Moderate tidal flooding also possible at high tides.

8.19 8:30AM
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OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUESThis reminds me of early Fall days growing up in Brigantine...brings back good memories, but I ...
08/19/2025

OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES
This reminds me of early Fall days growing up in Brigantine...brings back good memories, but I digress. Cloudy skies locked in still, chance of a passing shower or two. Temps in the mid and upper 70s. NE winds around 10mph mainland, but gusts to 30 possible at the beaches.

8.19 8AM
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08/19/2025

ERIN INCHES CLOSER
We are expecting big time waves, dangerous rip currents, erosion and flooding. Thursday PM could get dicey in the flood department. Let's dive into it all, here!

JUST MORE OF THE SAMEIt's gonna be windy at the beaches...Gusts to 30mph expected. It's gonna be cloudy and it's gonna b...
08/19/2025

JUST MORE OF THE SAME
It's gonna be windy at the beaches...Gusts to 30mph expected. It's gonna be cloudy and it's gonna be an unsettled day overall. Cool. Temps in the middle 70s at best, actually a couple degrees warmer at the beaches because the ocean temp is around 80. Crazy. Slightly better tomorrow and thursday, we will at least see brighter skies.

8.19 7:30AM
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TUESDAY'S W.T.F.Today's Water, Tan & Fly forecast? Eh. Don't even think about it. Wave action starts picking up. 4-6' br...
08/19/2025

TUESDAY'S W.T.F.
Today's Water, Tan & Fly forecast? Eh. Don't even think about it. Wave action starts picking up. 4-6' breakers with a HIGH chance of rip currents. Water temp at 80. Bath water! Cool temps in the middle 70s. NOT beach weather. Things get better by the end of the week but I don't think you'll be truly safe to swim until Sun/Mon.

8.19 7AM
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CONSISTENTLY BLAHWe've got temps topping out in the lower to middle 70s again. Clouds, some pops of sun with the chance ...
08/19/2025

CONSISTENTLY BLAH
We've got temps topping out in the lower to middle 70s again. Clouds, some pops of sun with the chance of a passing shower or two through the day. WINDY at the beaches. Sustained winds around 20-25mph...and this isn't even Erin. By late tomorrow and Thursday we will be talking gusts over 35mph.

8.19 6:30AM
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RINSE & REPEAT Same weather we saw yesterday at this point. Mostly cloudy skies with temps starting out in the lower to ...
08/19/2025

RINSE & REPEAT
Same weather we saw yesterday at this point. Mostly cloudy skies with temps starting out in the lower to middle 60s. East winds still locked in. Windier along the beaches than on the mainland. We slowly get into the lower 70s by around lunch. Green light on the travel for this AM commute.

8.19 6AM
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