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Wheat battling resistance here 🌾 After rallying +40 cents in the last 2 weeksWe are now trying to break above those Sept...
31/10/2025

Wheat battling resistance here 🌾

After rallying +40 cents in the last 2 weeks

We are now trying to break above those September highs

As we’ve tested that level for the 4th day in a row

Pretty big spot

If we get break above this red box, I’d like to think we have some room to run towards the green box

***
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Soybeans trading at their highest level in 479 daysWith our first monthly close above $11.00 since June 2024Breaking out...
31/10/2025

Soybeans trading at their highest level in 479 days

With our first monthly close above $11.00 since June 2024

Breaking out of 15 month range seems like a big deal

Could very well have some more room to run with the gap or air

As when we fell apart in 2024 we left very little support between here and the $11.40 range

***
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China has officially agreed to buy soybeansNot only for this year, but the next 3 years(12 MMT this year & 25 MMT the ne...
30/10/2025

China has officially agreed to buy soybeans

Not only for this year, but the next 3 years

(12 MMT this year & 25 MMT the next 3 years)

Is this a massive number? No

China essentially agreed to buy the same amount of soybeans they had been buying the last few years

The difference? Crush

We are crushing more than ever

If you compare the years that resemble the same amount of soybeans China agreed to buy

Crush demand is +200-300 million bushels higher than those years

So even though this isn’t a massive purchase number from China, it’s still friendly

Not to mention the lower acres and potentially lower yield this year

***
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What happens if China winds up buying soybeans?While at the same time yield ends up being smaller than advertised?Below ...
29/10/2025

What happens if China winds up buying soybeans?

While at the same time yield ends up being smaller than advertised?

Below is 2024 vs 2025 yield comparison

Last year Oct yield was the same as where the analysts pegged it at earlier this month

Oct 2024: 53.10
Oct 2025: 53.20 (est)

Last year yield ultimately fell substantially in Nov and Jan

Nov 2024: 51.70
Jan 2025: 50.70

We did have similarly a dry finish once again this year

Odds are saying we might not get an update on yield until Jan with the government shutdown

Who really knows how it’ll shake out. But the potential is certainly there

***
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Soybeans hate trading in the $11.00’sThis isn’t me saying soybeans have to go to $12.00+More often than not soybeans ten...
29/10/2025

Soybeans hate trading in the $11.00’s

This isn’t me saying soybeans have to go to $12.00+

More often than not soybeans tend to slice right through the $11.00’s whether it’s to the upside or the downside

There is only a handful of months we’ve ever spent trading between $11.00 and $12.00

Usually we blast through to $12.00 or higher on rallies, while crashing to $11.00 or lower on sell offs

Very rarely do we ever just simply range between $11.00 and $12.00

***
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Big spot for corn 🌽 Corn is over +40 cents off the lowsWe’ve now clawed back exactly 50% of the February highsThis level...
28/10/2025

Big spot for corn 🌽

Corn is over +40 cents off the lows

We’ve now clawed back exactly 50% of the February highs

This level also happens to be our old key support from spring

Where this market found a floor before falling apart in June

Often times old support will turn into new resistance

Break above this level and it could spark some additional upside

But until then.. it’s viewed as resistance

***
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Wheat finally showing some signs of life 🌾 After a nonstop bleed that resulted in us plummeting -$1.25 off the June high...
27/10/2025

Wheat finally showing some signs of life 🌾

After a nonstop bleed that resulted in us plummeting -$1.25 off the June highs.

We’re now +34 cents off the lows.

If the week ended today.. this would be the wheat markets best week since June..

We have a clear breakout on the chart.

From a technical standpoint I’d like to think we have some room to run.

***
Need some help deciding when to take risk off the table in grain marketing? Try our updates & signals free
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New yearly high in soybeans 🌱 On the continuous chart, we are potentially breaking out of this brutal range we’ve been t...
27/10/2025

New yearly high in soybeans 🌱

On the continuous chart, we are potentially breaking out of this brutal range we’ve been trapped in for the last 475 days

With a possible gap or air towards the $11.40 range

Of course Trump could turn this rally around with one tweet or the meeting with China could flop

But looking at the chart, breaking out of a range we’ve been stuck in for over a year isn’t nothing

***
Need help deciding when to take risk off the table in grain marketing?

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Live cattle has broken below the 50-day MA for the first time since AprilThe 50-day has acted as an absolute floor in th...
24/10/2025

Live cattle has broken below the 50-day MA for the first time since April

The 50-day has acted as an absolute floor in this market the entire year

It’s marked several bottoms

This market is clearly still in an uptrend. As we’re only at levels seen just two weeks ago

However, breaking below this support isn’t a great sign for bulls and could potentially spark some additional downside

Back in April when we broke below, we came down and ultimately tested the 100-day MA

Last week we issued a hedge alert

Here is link to alert: txt.so/gZTOGS

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  🌾 Is it finally time..? Optimistic price action in wheat today after continuing to disappointAs the wheat market poste...
24/10/2025

🌾

Is it finally time..?

Optimistic price action in wheat today after continuing to disappoint

As the wheat market posted its strongest daily gain in a month today

Looking like a “potential” breakout underway after a brutal downfall the last few months

***
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If soybeans ever clear $10.80… things could get really interesting.This is more of a big picture perspective.The $10.80 ...
24/10/2025

If soybeans ever clear $10.80… things could get really interesting.

This is more of a big picture perspective.

The $10.80 level has kept a lid on front month futures for over a year now.

The same exact level we struggled to break in 2017 and 2018.

There is a clear gap of air between $10.80 and $11.40 as the market has rarely ever traded in between there.

Not only that.. but the very first fib level (23.6%) from the 2024 lows up to the 2022 highs comes in at $11.44

I’m not saying soybeans have to go to $11.40

But if we ever take out $10.80 the upside potential is certainly there.

***
Need help deciding when it’s a good time to take risk off the table in grain marketing?

Try our updates & signals free
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Should you pay DP charges for stored corn, or explore a different strategy? 🌽 🤔 The answer is clear for most.You're like...
24/10/2025

Should you pay DP charges for stored corn, or explore a different strategy? 🌽 🤔

The answer is clear for most.

You're likely better off with selling corn and re-owning it will call options.

This approach can save you significant money while keeping your upisde potential.

Here is why 👇

Assume you are paying 5 cents per month in DP charges.

Plus 8% interest on a line of credit.

At $4.50 corn, interest costs run you 3 cents a month.

For a total of 8 cents every month when you combine the DP and interest.

(5 cents of DP + 3 cents of interest = 8 cents)

By February 20th, holding corn on DP would cost you 32 cents in total.

(4 months X 8 cents a month = 32 cents)

Here is an alternative 👇

March futures are trading at $4.37

The March $4.35 call options cost only 15 cents.

This presents a compelling opportunity.

You could sell your physical corn, buy one call option to protect your upside, and still come out ahead.

Even better.. you could buy two call options for 30 cents.

This 30 cents for the options would still be less than your total carrying costs of 32 cents.

While leaving you with exposure to the upside if we were to rally.

The DP strategy simply delivers the futures price minus 32 cents in total carrying costs.

The one call option strategy provides a floor of $4.22 while keeping your upside open.

($4.37 futures - 15 cents for call = $4.22)

The double call strategy provides a floor of $4.07 while keeping your upside open by twice as much.

($4.37 futures - 30 cents for both calls = $4.07)

For example, if corn were to rally to $5.05 like we did last year. You would receive $5.47

Which is a full 74 cents above the DP outcome of $4.73 ($5.05 - 32 cents storage = $4.73)

So should you pay DP charges?

Probably not in this current environment.

However, this analysis does NOT account for basis appreciation or extreme market moves in either direction.

Remember, you can always make marketing decisions and defer payment until January 1st. The right pricing decision and the right cash flow decision don’t have to align.

The bottom line:

If your elevator will improve basis even on DP corn, you might justify paying DP. But right now, options are simply too cheap and DP charges are too expensive to ignore this strategy.

If you need some help deciding when and what to do in your grain marketing.. try our updates & signals free
👉 www.dailymarketminute.com/freetrial

Disclaimer: futures and options are risky and not suitable for everyone. This is not investing advice.

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