Market Minute

16/09/2025

Wheat 10 Year Seasonal 🌾

Seasonally we bottom right about now

Typically we then head higher for the next month before making a local top in the middle of October

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16/09/2025

Is it finally time for wheat to catch a bid? 🌾

Bouncing right at the bottom of this year long channel

Currently busting out of a falling wedge pattern

Showing very clear bullish divergence

(Prices have continued to post contract lows, meanwhile the RSI has been forming higher highs)

$5.35 is the level to watch

Crack above and I think it’s our green light that this market is finally ready to head higher

I’d like to think we have room to run to $5.52 before finding any major resistance

$5.52 gives back 38.2% of the June highs and is old support

The next point of interest would be the top of the channel

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12/09/2025

Corn breaking out? 🌽 👀

After what most would consider not a very friendly report, finding an extra +1.4 million acres of corn

We are busting out of this bullish pennant pattern

Not only that but we blasting past this simple downward trend that has marked several highs since April

$4.35 gives back 50% of the February highs and is support from spring

That is going to be an area of interest moving forward here

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12/09/2025

Interesting set up in corn ahead of tomorrows USDA report

We are still battling this downward trend from April for the last several days

Now sitting in a potential bullish pennant pattern waiting for a decision which might be made tomorrow

If we get a break out above, I think we could have room to run to the $4.35 area

$4.35 not only gives back 50% of the highs from February

It was also some key support back in spring

Will we get the breakout or will the USDA ruin the party?

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12/09/2025

Wheat sitting in potential bullish falling wedge pattern heading into the USDA report tomorrow

We are also showing some massive bullish divergence

While prices have continued to post fresh lows, the RSI has been posting higher lows

Indicating downside momentum down here might be getting weaker

A break above $5.35 would be our green light we’re headed higher in my opinion

If we get the breakout, $5.52 is going to be our first real area of interest

It gives back 38.2% of the June highs and was some old support

***
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03/09/2025

Soybeans down -30 cents off the recent highs.

Looking like we could very well be in for some more downside here.

$10.12 to $10.22 gives back 50% to 61.8% of the entire +80 cent rally from $9.80

That level is seen as a standard correction and is going to be level of interest.

August 22nd we issued a sell alert for soybeans.

Sell Signal Link: txt.so/kEe66l

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03/09/2025

August 7th we alerted a buy signal for soybeans.

Buy Signal Link: txt.so/674qOF

August 22nd after an +80 cent rally we issued a sell signal.

Sell Signal Link: txt.so/kEe66l

Soybeans have only closed above that days highs 4 days this entire year.

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02/09/2025

Is the harvest low in for corn? 🌽

Here is why I think it is:

We closed above the 61.8% retracement up to the mid-July highs

Why does this matter?

The 61.8% level is seen as the standard level prices revert back to

Since we broke above, it tells us that this rally off contract lows is more than just a correctional bounce. It has impulse

We are now battling trendline resistance

This simple line marked our highs on 5 separate occasions. A break above could spark more upside

How high could we go?

50% of the February highs takes you to $4.35

$4.35 also happens to be a key area of support from spring. Now viewed as resistance

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29/08/2025

September rally in corn coming? 🌽

Corn has traded higher in September the last 8 of 10 years

Higher the last 4 of 5 years

In the last decade, the only 2 years we didn’t trade higher from Sep 1st to Oct 1st was 2023 and 2018

On average we rally about +18 cents

Coincidentally.. this is just in time for October insurance pricing

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29/08/2025

Wheat 2024 vs 2025 🌾

Last year the bottom came right about now

As we bottomed on Aug 27th before seeing a +95 cent rally into October

That bottom came at $5.20. Which is almost exactly where the recent bottom a few days ago was this year as well

This doesn’t mean we will follow the same exact path this year

But this is seasonally the time we can often start to carve out some meaningful lows

***
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25/08/2025

August 7th we alerted a buy signal for soybeans.

Buy Signal Link: txt.so/674qOF

Last Friday after an +80 cent rally we issued a sell signal & hedge alert for soybeans.

Sell Signal Link: txt.so/kEe66l

Soybeans have only closed above Friday’s highs 4 entire days this year.

Doesn’t seem like the worst spot in the world to start layering into protecting the recent rally.

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25/08/2025

We’ve seen one of the driest August’s on record. Especially for the eastern corn belt

Forecasts through the end of the month also offers zero rain for same areas

I don’t know about you.. but this sure doesn’t scream crops are getting bigger

Soybeans are made in August. August weather still matters for corn as well

We saw how big of an impact a dry finish made to last years crop

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