Market Minute

10/07/2025

Dec Corn - 5 Year vs 20 Year Seasonal 🌽

Both tell opposite stories

The last few years corn has been carving out a bottom sooner

Not venturing too far below our July lows come August

The 20 year seasonal on the other hand has us falling apart until September

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10/07/2025

Feeder cattle rejected right off the golden fib 🐮 🎯

Target was shared with customers two days ago

Sell alert was sent out this morning

This target was 161.8% of the June rally (labeled with the blue lines)

The June rally topped out exactly at 161.8% of the March rally (labeled with the red lines)

Two separate rallies. Both topping out at the 161.8% level

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09/07/2025

Not a great look for soybeans here

We broke below the 61.8% retracement from the June highs down to the April lows

This level had also been pretty significant support since harvest

The last two times we ventured below we saw a quick flush lower as there is a gap of air below us

Need to reverse and close back above $10.10 fast or next stop could possibly be $9.93

Bulls hoping USDA or perhaps some unexpected trade news can spark a reversal or bear trap

Next few days of price action are important and likely dictate if this a bear trap or something bigger

***
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09/07/2025

Sorry this isn’t relative to the grain markets

But for you Bitcoin bros..

Did someone order coffee? ☕️

08/07/2025

History says corn will be lower a month from now

But do we have to go “drastically” lower?

The past 5 years we’ve sold off going in July before finding some footing and trending sideways to slightly lower into August

In the 5 year seasonal we don’t take out our July lows by a tremendous amount

Meanwhile both the 10 and 15 year seasonal say we fall apart until September

As of recent years, the corn market has been finding a bottom sooner while not selling off as deep heading into harvest

Below is fhe 5, 10, and 15 year seasonal for Dec corn

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08/07/2025

How corn yield has changed vs starting yield

We haven’t seen yield higher than the initial May estimate since 2018

However, last year was the smallest that gap has been since then

As we missed by -1.7 bpa last year

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08/07/2025

Soybean highs by month 🌱

Current yearly highs were set in February

(Recent June rally was 2 cents of new yearly highs)

It’s not all too often the market posts it’s highest prices of the year before June

That doesn’t mean we couldn’t have already posted our highs in February again (take the corn market for example)

But odds favor an opportunity at some point

The corn & soybean markets are a completely different fundamental story here in the US

Corn is projected to have a record crop with the highest acres in years

Meanwhile bean acres are the lowest since 2019

New crop carryout for beans is projected to be down -15% even if we raise a trendline yield

There just feels like a more visible path to an opportunity in soybeans than there does corn today

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08/07/2025

Do you know how many days you had to hit the top 10% of the corn market this year?

Just 3 days.

Out of 252 days.

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07/07/2025

How big of an anomaly was this year for corn? 🌽

The current yearly high was posted in Feb

We have only posted our yearly highs before April twice in the past 20 years

2013 and 2024

But.. if you add context it makes this year even more unique

In 2013 — we were coming off the historic 2012 prices. Prices were already on a downfall

Last year — we were already on a downfall from 2023 and continued lower the entire year

This was the first ever time we have seen prices make a sizable rally then top out before April

2025 could go down as a year of its own

The last two years have been anything but typical seasonal years

***
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07/07/2025

Soybeans right back at a major must hold level

On the recent rally we reclaimed 61.8% of the June highs before failing

Erasing the entire rally in one day today

Now right back in the golden retracement zone from the June highs down to the April lows (50-61.8%)

Last several times we came down here we bounced

It’s been a pivotal spot since harvest

We’ve really only ventured below this level twice. Both times resulted in a fast spike lower

Meaning we have a gap of air to the downside if we fail to hold $10.10

Important spot here for bulls to defend

***
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07/07/2025

When does corn usually post the lowest price for the year?

Odds favor we haven’t seen the lows

Corn rarely posts its lows in July

We haven’t seen the yearly lows come in July in over a decade

More often than not, that bottom is going to be around that Aug-Sep time frame

6 of the past 10 years the low has came in Aug-Sep

You could still see a rally in July then make new lows. And this doesn’t mean we can’t bottom soon. But history suggests we haven’t seen the lows yet and won’t for another month or so

***
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06/07/2025

Soybeans have clawed back 61.8% of the recent sell off from the June highs

Taking a breather here after the recent rally wouldn’t be a surprise

As we failed to close above the 61.8% level while leaving a nasty looking candle on Friday. Closing -9 cents off the highs

However if we break above the 61.8% level, there isn’t much stopping us from those June highs

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