09/02/2024
interesting thought experiment!
By R.Robert Lagerquist
If we assume that all the people who died prematurely due to wars, genocides, and other atrocities had lived, the global population would likely be significantly higher.
Rough estimates suggest that:
- 6-11 million additional people (Holocaust survivors and their descendants)
- 20-30 million additional people (Soviet regime survivors and their descendants)
- 20-45 million additional people (Chinese regime survivors and their descendants)
This totals around 46-86 million people, not accounting for population growth and descendants. Adding these numbers to the current global population (approximately 7.9 billion), we can estimate an alternate population scenario:
7,900,000,000 (current population) + 46,000,000 (conservative estimate) = 7,946,000,000
7,900,000,000 (current population) + 86,000,000 (higher estimate) = 7,986,000,000
Keep in mind that this is a simplified calculation, as population growth rates and demographic factors would have influenced the actual numbers.
It's a poignant thought, considering the impact of historical events on the world's population and the potential lives that could have been lived.what would the populaconsidering population growth rates and demographic factors.
Assuming an average annual population growth rate of 1.5% (a rough estimate for the 20th century), we can simulate the impact of these additional individuals on the global population.
Using a simplified population growth model, we can estimate the additional population growth over time:
- 46 million additional people (conservative estimate):
- 1950: 46 million
- 2000: 143 million (assuming 1.5% annual growth)
- 2023: 233 million
- 86 million additional people (higher estimate):
- 1950: 86 million
- 2000: 283 million (assuming 1.5% annual growth)
- 2023: 383 million
Adding these numbers to the actual global population, we get:
- Conservative estimate: 7,900,000,000 (actual) + 233,000,000 (additional) = 8,133,000,000
- Higher estimate: 7,900,000,000 (actual) + 383,000,000 (additional) = 8,283,000,000
Please note that this is a simplified simulation, as actual population growth rates and demographic factors (like fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration) would have influenced the outcome.
This thought experiment helps us understand the potential impact of historical events on the world's population and encourages us to appreciate the value of human life.