Storm Front Specialists - Severe Weather Network

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Storm Front Specialists - Severe Weather Network

Passionate Storm Front Specialists dedicated to forecasting the most significant storms. All posts provided by Meteorologist Sean Bagdon

Join us as we explore the power of nature and share our insights on severe weather phenomena.

16/09/2025

Happy first widespread frost everyone!!! We will be done cleaning off our car in an hour at this rate🤣 ps - we do have a scraper

26/08/2025

***Steady Light To Moderate Rain For Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Evening***

Good evening everyone, as our scattered afternoon storms come to a close from today we will notice a brief lull in precipitation across western valleys until Tuesday afternoon. Once the 6 am hour hits a strong push of southwesterly winds aloft will push in increasing monsoonal moisture into western Wyoming and along this moisture gradient scattered to widespread thunderstorms will like exist as weak elevated instability will be in place across the western counties. This first wave of precipitation appears to be short lived however as this will be due to a relatively sharp and quick moving boundary.

During the late afternoon hours however a stalling out mature upper low will get stuck over central Idaho through the overnight hours. This will put Western Wyoming under a zone of favorable difluence aloft to the east of the cut off low. This will allow for a widespread shield of light to moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms to improve act western Wyoming overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.

In terms of precipitation amounts any favorable southwest facing slopes will be the winners of this event with areas such as Star Valley Ranch, Bedford and Turnerville doing the best with a zone of up to 1.5 inches of rainfall. A secondary maximum of up to 1.25 inches of rain will be likely through Thursday morning in the vicinity of the Willow Creek fire, Both Teton Counties in Idaho and Wyoming should see between .75 and 1.25 inches of rain from this event likely helping to extinguish some of the smaller fires and turning some of the larger fires to a smolder! Great news for local residents and firefighters!

Even better news is that it looks like persistent rainfall will continue throughout the next week daily(especially in the afternoon).

Note: In areas where fires have recently been burning or where they are currently burning an increased landslide threat will exist since there are not longer healthy tree roots holding the soil in place and with the amount of rain expected the soil will get quite heavy on top of existing lighter looser soils. Treat steep burn scars just like avalanche zones in the winter, don’t linger or park under them just keep moving and pull over once you have passed the burn scar. This advice doesn’t just apply to Wyoming it applies to anywhere that has recently seen fires in steep terrain.

24/08/2025

*** Willow Creek Fire Update***

Evacuation orders have been issued from mile post 75 to Salt Pass as well as south of county road 155. An emergency shelter has been opened at 391 Warrior Way in Afton, WY for anyone that has been affected by the fire. Highway 89 has now been closed due to the Willow Creek fire between Afton and the Idaho state line(Please Prepare accordingly). If anyone affected by these evacuations needs assistance please reach out and we will help.

Forecast Discussion: Winds will remain light and variable through the next 24 hours leading to slow progression of the Willow Creek fire over this time frame(slow progression to the east and southeast). As moisture increases through the day tomorrow with impending monsoon moisture widespread showers and thunderstorms will become likely (especially after 3pm) across southern western Wyoming. Given the dry surface air in place however strong outflow winds(up to 35 mph) from any thunderstorms that do develop in the area could lead to erratic fire behavior and spread. The good news however is that the boundary of monsoon moisture should stay relatively stationary across southern and central Lincoln County in Wyoming. This will allow for training showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue throughout the night on Sunday and into Monday morning which will give firefighters some much needed help in fighting the Willow Creek fire. Continued cloudiness, light drizzel and moisture return from the Pacific is expected to continue across Lincoln County through the day on Monday as well.

Looking into the long term temperatures look to remain at or slightly below average with continued rainfall chances as well across western Wyoming through at least Wednesday with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70’s for highs and low 50’s to high 40’s for lows. Widespread rainfall totals look to be in the .6 to 1 inch range with localized areas along the benches as well as the western slopes of the Tetons and Salts see g totals as high as 1.5 inches. A brief lull in precipitation is expected by late week as weak ridging takes hold which will be quickly ushered out by and even stronger and colder area of low pressure which will likely drop out of Canada by early next week and stall out over the area bringing continued rainfall chances to western Wyoming.

Have a great night everyone and stay safe out there!

Below is a photo from the Salt River Pass from a WYDOT we**am showing the fire approaching state highway 89.

- Your local Meteorologist Sean Bagdon

23/08/2025

***Fire Fighters In Star Valley Getting Some Help Soon***

Good evening everyone as most of us know a rapidly growing and out of control fire has developed just to the south of Smoot, WY(Growing from 30 acres to 250 acres in hours). Anyone who is near this area needs to take any evacuation orders seriously over the coming days and have a go bag with important documents and essentials prepared as this is a very dangerous situation. The good news however though is that the wind direction will turn out of the Northwest through the day tomorrow allowing the fire to stay out of most residential areas(although some may be impacted). Conditions will remain favorable for fire growth and development through the afternoon on Sunday.

As Sunday night arrives much cooler temperatures aloft and deep Pacific moisture moving in on monsoon flow (connected to a Pacific Hurricane) will infiltrate Western Wyoming. This will lead to heavy rainfall being likely in the afternoon on Monday across most of Western Wyoming. Given how our pattern will remain very stagnant for about a week continued rainfall and increased moisture will help in suppressing wildfire activity across the area. With most areas across the Star Valley seeing at least one inch of rain through the next week (with higher totals approaching 2.5 inches in the higher terrain and benches). Yellowstone will also get in on the drought relief with widespread rainfall amounts in the 1.5 to 3 inch range with the highest amounts being seen along the Pitchstone Plateau.

This wet pattern looks to remain across the Western US for the foreseeable future and long range models are in agreement that daily afternoon heavy rainfall will be likely through at least the middle of September. Some much welcomed news for our hard working firefighters out in the field currently.

A final note about the Willow Creek Fire: If you live near Smoot or are camping anywhere south and west of Smoot please stay very fire prepared over the next few days while we wait for relief to come in. Our firefighters are amazing but the conditions are so prime for fire spread right now they will likely also need outside help from our natural forces as well in the form of cooler and more moist air. Expect I g for temps to remain in the 70’s the the extended period after Monday. More updates regarding the wild fire and potential heavy rainfall will be posted daily going forward.

Remember if anyone needs help down in the Smoot area we are not just praying for you we are here to help as well. Please reach out in a DM if you need assistance with anything if you are in the path of this fire.

Below is a photo showing the increase in moisture expected in western Wyoming next week (Dark Blue are extremely high values) and a map of where winds are like to take the Willow Creek fire over the next few days anyone planning to drive the Salt Pass need to keep an eye on the situation very closely!

Fire Photo courtesy of Watch Duty App

21/08/2025

*** Pattern Change Brings Plentiful Moisture To Western Wyoming Next Week***

Big time weather pattern shift looks to take place across Western Wyoming and Eastern Idaho starting this weekend bringing in significant Monsoon moisture(3-5 standard deviations above average)and the start of fall like weather which looks to be here to stay. More on this pattern shift will be posted on this page tomorrow evening. Looks like we are ending our annual summer forecasting hibernation early. We are excited to continue to provide in depth and accurate forecasts for Wyoming from tomorrow until the snow stops flying. Who’s ready for winter to begin!!!

05/07/2025

Yesterday evening in Jackson, WY as an isolated strong thunderstorm passed off to the south to the north we were treated with quite a show of Mammatus and Rainbows!!!

03/07/2025

***Highly Conditional But Potentially Significant Severe Weather Possible Across The Northern Plains 7/3/25***

Good evening everyone, hope you all enjoyed the quiet streak of weather recently but that potentially could change tomorrow as a trough ejects out of the Northwester US and into the Northern Plains. This will be the tale of two very different possibilities as a highly conditional but potentially significant severe weather event is possible across North Dakota tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Going more in depth about this event it appears that a shortwave trough will eject out into the northern plains tomorrow afternoon and as this trough ejects southeasterly flow out into front of the trough will allow significant moisture advection to occur out in front of the trough bringing with it dew points in the low to mid 70’s allowing for potential destabilization to occur. With that being said lots of warm air aloft will likely hinder widespread storm development across North Dakota. But given steep mid level lapse rates and incredibly high surface dew points extreme instability will likely be realized in isolated areas. Given this and the potential for a low level jet out of the Southwest to strengthen to between 35-40 knots enough low level shear will be realized if surface temperatures can exceed 90 degrees that a significant tornado threat maybe realized as 0 -3 km SRH (Storm Relative Helicity Values) may exceed 400 m^2/s^2.

Note this is a high end tornado environment but only if the Convective inhibition layer can be breached. At this time there is a 30-50% chance of this occurring but it needs to be watch closely because if temps reach above the 90-95 degree threshold across eastern and central North Dakota a significant tornado threat cannot be ruled out. However regardless of if this occurs or not a significant hail threat is likely as steep mid level lapse rates and high PWAT values will allow for a potentially high end hail threat if models continue to follow current trends. An enhanced threat of severe weather maybe issued tomorrow by the Storm Prediction Center if it appears that the ridging aloft or Convective Inhibition will be breached tomorrow afternoon due to an enhanced tornado and hail threat.

02/07/2025

***Breaking News - Quiet Weather Remains Across the USA***

The weather across the US continues to remain very quiet for the foreseeable future. The only things to note at this time is the slight risk for flooding across the Desert Southwest due to monsoonal flow setting up across the area as well as some widely scattered severe storms which likely won’t amount to much over the next 3 or so days. There is also an area highlighted by the NHC for a moderate chance of tropical development but this will likely remain weak if it develops at all. But for now we will remain quiet as long as these smaller events don’t show and significant severe potential. This will be a good chance for us to take a break while we wait for the second week of July which appears to get much more active in the severe weather department. More on this to come later this week!

Happy 4th of July everyone enjoy your celebrations this week but not too much!!!

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