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Storm Front Specialists - Severe Weather Network Passionate Storm Front Specialists dedicated to forecasting the most significant storms. All posts provided by Meteorologist Sean Bagdon

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***Significant Severe Weather Possible In The Northern Plains 6/28/25***Good evening everyone, life has been a little bu...
28/06/2025

***Significant Severe Weather Possible In The Northern Plains 6/28/25***

Good evening everyone, life has been a little busy the past few days so it’s been hard to post but tomorrow looks potentially significant (more so than today) in terms of severe weather across the northern Plains and especially over southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.

Discussion: Looking at short range model guidance it appears that an area of low pressure will eject out in front of the western trough that we have been watching out into the northern plains tomorrow. With this a stout low level jet (40-50kts) will evolve through the afternoon hours across southern Minnesota and Eastern South Dakota. Out in front of the aparent low accelerated surface flow (15-20kts) out of the southeast will help to elongate hodographs allowing for a potentially strong tornado threat especially across southern Minnesota during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. This combined with the usual corn sweat will create an extremely unstable and unCAPPED atmosphere by 3pm tomorrow as surface dew points rise into the low to mid 70’s across the region.

CAPE values in excess of 4000j/kg along a surface boundary across southern Minnesota should allow for supercell storms that do develop to contain a significant hail threat as well as a significant tornado threat if storms do anchor along this boundary. Posted in the images below is where we expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado based enhanced risk tomorrow and potentially introduce a 10% hatched area for significant tornados as long as clearing occurs along the boundary and the low level jet of 40-50 knots is realized.

***Severe Weather Outlook 6/24/25***Good afternoon Wyoming and Colorado tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has issued ...
24/06/2025

***Severe Weather Outlook 6/24/25***

Good afternoon Wyoming and Colorado tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for a large portion of Eastern Wyoming and Northeastern Colorado. Not only is the typical severe hail risk in place for this set up but a tornado threat will exist as well!

No need to worry though this tornado threat will likely be isolated to two areas that we have observed on short range model guidance this evening. One along a moisture rich wind shift boundary in Northeastern Colorado and another along what appears to be a dry line bulge in Central Wyoming near Casper.

We have the greatest confidence in the tornado threat being realized in the Northeastern Colorado mode as shear profiles here look better than the northern mode and moisture looks much richer allowing for more instability to be realized in Northeast Colorado. As for the Central Wyoming mode some models show deeper moisture making a quick recovery but for the most part it appears that moisture will be late to arrive meaning any widespread tornado threat should be minimal here.

As for the large hail given that this is summer in the mountainous desert steep mid level lapse rates will likely lead to fat CAPE profiles capable of producing significant hail in any storms that do form (especially if they remain cellular). The highest threat for the largest hail will likely be in the Northeastern Colorado mode as well as higher PWAT values associated with these steeper mid level lapse rates will likely lead to a favorable environment for hail growth.

The significant severe wind threat (as always) will primarily reside in the Central and Eastern Wyoming mode where dryer air is expected to be in place at the surface meaning that any storms that do form with likely have very powerful cold pools that develop potentially leading to brief but intense 70mph gusts as storms become outflow dominant during the evening hours.

To summarize the wind shear is better closer to the northern mode if you look at jet shape but localized spinning due to backed southeasterly winds along a moisture gradient in Northeast Colorado will likely be the area where tornadoes and supercell storms will be most likely tomorrow due to the fact that surface moisture will be higher here. Further north along the dry line bulge dryer surface dew point suggest that significant winds gusts will be the main threat and if the atmosphere can become unCAPped upscale growth into a squall line could be possible in Wyoming if upper level flow maintains itself or strengthens into the evening hours. A derecho type event is not anticipated out of this system however as the is no significant down wind instability pool for the system to maintain its strength into the overnight hours.

As per usual let us know below if you have any questions and we will make sure to highlight the areas in the photo gallery below that have the highest probability of seeing significant severe weather within the slight risk tomorrow. Sleep well everyone!

Some local Wyoming and Montana webcams from this morning showing the wintery scenes from up in the mountains this mornin...
22/06/2025

Some local Wyoming and Montana webcams from this morning showing the wintery scenes from up in the mountains this morning. As anticipated the Beartooth Pass has been temporarily closed due to heavy snowfall and winter conditions and will likely reopen by either tomorrow or Tuesday depending on on the amount that ends up falling. At this time snow showers are starting to become more scattered as dry air is starting to work in aloft but as temperatures aloft continue to decrease throughout the day increased instability will likely lead to a renewal of snow shower activity by early afternoon. Stay safe out there everyone and enjoy the snow!!!

***High Elevation Winter Weather Event Forecast*** Good evening everyone, tomorrow looks to be an interesting one to say...
22/06/2025

***High Elevation Winter Weather Event Forecast***

Good evening everyone, tomorrow looks to be an interesting one to say the least especially above 7,000 feet in Western Wyoming, Eastern Idaho and Southern Montana. This will be due to moderate to heavy snowfall that is expected to develop overnight tonight especially across the mountains of Eastern Idaho and Southern Montana and Yellowstone. These are the areas we will especially have to watchout for(especially above 8,000ft) in terms of road impacts as the high June sun angle will have no impact on accumulations as snowfalls overnight. With that being said extremely warm surface temperatures are in place across the area meaning that it may take a while for grass and especially road surfaces to show accumulations.

On roadways above 8,000 feet moderate to high road impacts could be felt especially given the fact that most do not have snow tires on at this time. Accumulations of 2-5 inches can be expected between 8,000 and 10,000 feet with up to 8 inches being possible at the highest peaks. Expect snow to come to an end by late evening across all aforementioned areas as dry northwest flow aloft will start to win out behind the cold front shutting of any precipitation potential.

As for valley locations it will be a close call as temperatures aloft will be quite marginal for snow down to the 6,000 foot band. But a few flakes cannot be ruled out tomorrow morning in both Jackson Hole, the Northern Star Valley and the Teton Valley of Idaho as temperatures aloft briefly dip below the -5 to -6 degree Celsius we need them to in order to suggest snow mixing in at the surface.

Again to recap any high elevation roadways (especially those above 8,000 feet) including Togwotee Pass, Bear Tooth Pass, Yellowstone roadways and any roads above 8,000 feet that go through the Gallatin Range in Southwestern Montana will likely see moderate impacts at times due to moderate and heavy snow bands that are expected to develop over the next few hours and last through the overnight hours and will slowly lessen in intensity throughout the day tomorrow. Have a great night everyone and stay safe if driving through especially Yellowstone, Beartooth Pass or Togwotee Pass tonight and into tomorrow.

***Classic Northwestern US Winter Storm (High Elevation) in Summer***Tomorrow we will have a post out regarding the mode...
21/06/2025

***Classic Northwestern US Winter Storm (High Elevation) in Summer***

Tomorrow we will have a post out regarding the moderate high elevation snow event for Sunday early morning into Sunday Evening for the higher elevations (7,500+ feet) for the Tetons, Yellowstone, Bear Tooth Pass, and the Gallatin Range and Big Sky. Up to 8 inches will be possible above 8,000 feet especially in Southwestern Montana! Even the Teton Valley and northern Star Valley in Wyoming and Idaho could see some early morning flakes mix in(Sunday Morning)if dry air does not mix in behind the system too early.

Normally we wouldn’t make to much of a big deal out of this but given the fact that the heaviest snow is expected in areas where tourists are likely to be we have to keep a very close eye on this event in regards to road conditions and road closures (especially for Yellowstone and Beartooth). Have a great evening everyone and stay safe on Sunday we will be back with a more in depth break down of this event tomorrow evening. Winter storm warnings may be needed!

*** Severe Weather Outlook 6/20/25***Note: The Storm Prediction Center currently has an enhanced risk of severe weather ...
20/06/2025

*** Severe Weather Outlook 6/20/25***

Note: The Storm Prediction Center currently has an enhanced risk of severe weather in place mainly across Southern North Dakota and Northwestern Minnesota. If you live in Southeastern Minnesota, Eastern South Dakota and Northern Iowa this maybe expanded into your area and possibly upgraded to a moderate risk if current model trends continue. Rapidly strengthening low level jets in this sort of environment have a tendancy to over achive, please stay weather aware tomorrow if you are in any of the aforementioned areas.

Good evening everyone, tomorrow looks like there could be some significant severe weather especially across eastern South Dakota, Southern North Dakota, Western Minnesota and Northern Iowa.

Looking at current short range model guidance significant surface based instability will likely be realized by mid afternoon leading to the rapid development of severe thunderstorms out in front of the onset of cyclonic curvature of a deepening cyclone over the Northwesternn United States.

Early on any storms that can remain by themselves will likely have a tornado threat with them as upper level wind shear and fat CAPE profiles will lead to elongated hodographs favorable for tornadoes(especially across Northeastern South Dakota, Southern North Dakota, Western Minnesota and Northern Iowa). As early evening onsets however an acceleration of the low level jet(up to 60kts)is expected and given that upper level ridging will start to take hold upscale growth of the supercell thunderstorms that formed early on will likely take place. As this happens any tornado threat and significant hail threat will likely decrease and a high end straight line wind event will likely evolve. Winds with this line of thunderstorms will likely be up to 90mph.

As always if you have any questions feel free to post them below and we will make sure to answer them for you.

***Severe Weather Outlook 6/17/25***Note: A slight southward expansion of the enhanced risk is possible by tomorrow. Peo...
17/06/2025

***Severe Weather Outlook 6/17/25***

Note: A slight southward expansion of the enhanced risk is possible by tomorrow. People in Northeast Oklahoma should pay close attention to any slight changes in this forecast.

Good evening everyone, tomorrow an enhanced risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center across Central and Eastern Kansas.

Looking at model data this does seem reasonable although areas of Northeastern Oklahoma do need to be on standby with this one as some models show a rather intense jet streak developing over this area late in the evening on the 17th which would lead to continued organization of an intense squall line that will be moving to the East South East across most of Kansas and potentially Northeastern Oklahoma.

This rapid intensification of the low level jet can be easily seen on composite parameters such as the Energy Helicity Index which is through the roof out in front of this squall line even at night which coupled with the stronger low level jet would suggest a long lived high end wind event would track across Kansas and potentially Northeastern Oklahoma and western Missouri with winds potentially exceeding 110mph at times within the squall line. Even though hodographs are extremely favorable for tornadoes (especially across South Central Kansas through Southeastern Kansas and Northeastern Oklahoma) the late enhancement of the low level jet means that the CAP will lead to a lesser tornado threat across this area. However the instability out in front of this line combined with the high end helicity values could be enough to drill mesocyclones through this CAP layer at times leading to very quick but potentially strong QLCS tornadoes across the aforementioned area.

Given the extreme instability and deep moisture in place significant hail is expected to fall as well early on in the evolution of the line when the stronger cores and more cellular nature of storms is expected to be present across Kansas.

Areas into Wyoming and Colorado are also expected to see scattered severe storms as well which have large hail and high wind threats but the main widespread severe threat will be along the surface boundary draped along the Kansas and Oklahoma border where locally enhanced southeasterly winds south of the boundary could elongate hodographs enough for a strong tornado threat with any storm that can anchor itself along this boundary.

Stay safe tomorrow everyone it will certainly be one of those nights that the clothes will need to stay on as tornadoes and high winds may send you running for basements/shelters overnight in these areas. As always if you have any questions feel free to post them below and we will try to get back to as many of you as possible.

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