First Alert Hurricane

09/24/2026

🌀 EASTERN & CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL UPDATE

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

It is an unusually busy evening across the Pacific, with three named tropical systems stretching from the waters near Mexico all the way toward Hawaii.

🔴 HURRICANE POLO — EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE

Polo has undergone significant strengthening just offshore of southwestern Mexico and is nearing Category 5 intensity.

* 🌪️ Maximum sustained winds: 155 mph
* 📉 Minimum pressure: 929 mb
* 📍 Location: 15.7°N, 102.3°W
* ➡️ Movement: Northwest at 6 mph
* 🔴 Current intensity: Category 4 hurricane
* 📈 Additional strengthening remains possible during the next day or so.
* 🇲🇽 The core is expected to remain near the southwestern Mexican coast through Thursday morning before gradually moving farther out to sea.
* 🌧️ 4–6 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 8 inches, are possible along portions of Guerrero.
* ⚠️ Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially across mountainous terrain.
* 🌊 Dangerous surf, rip currents and coastal flooding will affect portions of southwestern Mexico.

Polo is an exceptionally powerful hurricane, but remember: 155 mph is still Category 4. Category 5 begins at 157 mph.

🌀 TROPICAL STORM NOLO — HAWAII NEEDS TO WATCH CLOSELY

Nolo has strengthened slightly south of the Hawaiian Islands, and the Big Island remains under a Hurricane Watch.

* 🌬️ Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
* 📉 Minimum pressure: 1002 mb
* 📍 Location: 14.6°N, 155.8°W
* ➡️ Movement: West at 9 mph
* ⚠️ Hurricane Watch: Hawaii County
* ↗️ Nolo is forecast to make a sharp turn toward the north and north-northeast Thursday.
* 🌀 The system is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday and could become a major hurricane by the weekend.
* 🌧️ Big Island rainfall totals of 15–20 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts up to 35 inches.
* 🌧️ Maui could receive 5–10 inches, with isolated totals up to 20 inches.
* ⚠️ This amount of rainfall could produce life-threatening to catastrophic flooding and mudslides, particularly over steep terrain.
* 🌊 A storm surge of 1–3 feet is possible for Hawaii County, along with dangerous surf and rip currents.

🌀 HURRICANE ODALYS — FAR OUT IN THE PACIFIC

Odalys has strengthened into a hurricane well southwest of Baja California.

* 🌪️ Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
* 📉 Minimum pressure: 984 mb
* 📍 Location: 15.5°N, 127.2°W
* ➡️ Movement: East at 7 mph
* 📈 Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two.
* ↗️ A gradual turn toward the northeast and eventually north is expected later this week.
* ✅ No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect.
* 🇺🇸 Odalys remains far from land and poses no immediate threat to the United States.

📌 OLD-SCHOOL BOTTOM LINE

This is quite a tropical setup across the Pacific tonight.

Polo is the powerhouse, sitting just below Category 5 strength near southwestern Mexico. Nolo deserves very close attention around Hawaii because of its expected turn northward and the potential for tremendous rainfall. Odalys is well out over open water and is primarily a marine system at this time.

Three systems. Three very different situations.

No hype—just watch the steering currents, pressure trends, satellite presentation, and official advisories as these systems evolve.

FIRST ALERT HURRICANE
Accuracy Over First.
Meteorologist Louis Smith

09/24/2026

09/24/2026

🌀 OLD-SCHOOL TROPICAL ANALYSIS — HURRICANE POLO

Goodness, what a sight over the eastern Pacific this evening.

If you’ve studied tropical weather for a long time, every once in a while Mother Nature produces a storm that makes you put the forecast charts down for a minute and simply look at it.

Hurricane Polo is one of those storms.

Polo has undergone an extraordinary period of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds reported near 180 mph.

Even more remarkable is the central pressure, which fell below 900 millibars earlier. You simply don’t see pressures that low very often in a tropical cyclone.

🌡️ WHAT DOES THAT TELL US?

Forget the computer models for a moment and look at the hurricane itself.

• A remarkably well-defined circulation
• Extremely powerful winds surrounding the inner core
• A tremendous pressure gradient
• Deep thunderstorms wrapped around the center
• The unmistakable appearance of an exceptionally intense hurricane

Those are the things meteorologists watched long before we had today’s high-resolution computer guidance.

Fortunately, Polo is not expected to make landfall along the Mexican coast, although impacts from such a large and powerful hurricane can extend well beyond its eye.

And that’s something worth remembering:

The center doesn’t have to cross your coastline for the ocean and atmosphere around a major hurricane to make their presence known.

For now, we watch the satellite pictures, watch the pressure, watch the movement and let the hurricane tell us what it’s doing.

No hype is necessary.

A Category 5 hurricane with winds near 180 mph and a pressure below 900 mb speaks loudly enough for itself.

Quite a storm to observe this evening.

🌀 Accuracy Over First

09/24/2026

🌀 OLD-SCHOOL TROPICAL ANALYSIS — KEEPING ONE EYE ON THE GULF

📅 Looking Ahead to the First Week of October

It’s getting late in the hurricane season, but anyone who has watched the tropics for many years knows that October is not the time to quit watching the Gulf and Caribbean.

Right now, there is no immediate tropical threat to the United States or Florida during the next several days. So there is certainly no reason for alarm.

But looking farther down the road, there is something worth keeping an eye on.

👀 WATCH THE SOUTHERN GULF

The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the southern Gulf region for the possibility of tropical development during the first week of October.

One thing that catches my attention is the possibility of an old frontal boundary pushing south and eventually stalling over the warm waters of the Gulf.

That’s an old setup worth watching.

Sometimes an old front simply washes out and nothing happens. Other times, a weak area of low pressure can gradually develop along the leftover boundary if the upper-level winds and surrounding atmosphere become favorable.

🌡️ WHAT ARE THE MODELS SAYING?

At this point, not very much.

There are some subtle hints, but nothing organized or consistent enough that I would hang a forecast on it.

And that’s important.

A model showing low pressure 7–10 days down the road does not mean we’re going to have a tropical storm or hurricane.

The better approach is the old-fashioned one:

• Watch the frontal boundary
• Watch the surface pressures
• Watch the wind pattern above it
• Watch the thunderstorms
• Then see whether nature actually starts putting something together

🌀 NO LOCAL THREAT AT THIS TIME

I don’t see anything right now that would justify sounding an alarm for the Gulf Coast or Florida.

We’re simply watching the weather pattern.

October can produce some interesting tropical setups, particularly across the western Caribbean and Gulf, so hurricane season isn’t finished just because we’re approaching the end of September.

Sometimes the best forecast is simply:

“There’s nothing there yet — but I know where I’m looking.”

That’s where we are tonight.

No hype.
No long-range model chasing.
Just watching the atmosphere and letting it show us what it wants to do.

🌀 ACCURACY OVER FIRST

— Meteorologist Louis Smith

09/23/2026

🌀 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY MAKES A COMEBACK — RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC

📅 Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | 5:00 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center Advisory #15

Fay isn’t finished just yet.

The low-pressure system associated with former Tropical Storm Fay has re-developed into Tropical Depression Fay over the central Atlantic, well southwest of the Azores.

📍 LATEST INFORMATION

• Location: 30.1°N, 39.2°W
• About 885 miles southwest of the Azores
• Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
• Movement: West at 8 mph
• Minimum pressure: 1011 mb / 29.86 inches
• No coastal watches or warnings are in effect

➡️ WHERE IS FAY HEADED?

• Fay is moving generally westward.
• This overall motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
• The system remains far out over the open Atlantic.

📈 SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE

• Fay could strengthen somewhat during the next couple of days.
• After that, gradual weakening is expected.
• Maximum sustained winds are currently just 35 mph, about 4 mph below tropical-storm strength.

🌊 NO IMMEDIATE LAND THREAT

At this time, Fay poses no immediate threat to land, and there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

🌀 BOTTOM LINE

Fay has shown once again why we never completely write off a tropical system until the circulation is gone for good. The system has regenerated into a tropical depression and could strengthen some over the next couple of days.

For now, this remains primarily an open-Atlantic system, but we’ll continue watching its progress.

FIRST ALERT HURRICANE
Accuracy Over First — Facts, Not Fear.

Tropical Tidbits

09/23/2026

🌧️ NORTHEAST WEEKEND STORM — MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT

A slow-moving storm system could bring a period of rain and gusty northeast winds to portions of the Northeast Friday through the weekend. Forecast confidence has improved somewhat compared with 24 hours ago, but the exact track remains uncertain.

🌀 WEATHER SETUP

• Forecast models generally agree on a closed 500-mb upper-level low developing over or near the region Friday through Sunday.
• A surface low is expected to track near or just east of the 40°N/70°W benchmark Saturday.
• The system could then meander offshore through the remainder of the weekend before gradually weakening and pulling away Monday.
• Because this is a closed/cutoff upper low, relatively small changes in its position could still produce meaningful changes in the surface storm track and impacts.

🌧️ RAIN TIMING

• Rain chances begin increasing Friday morning.
• Areas mainly east of New York City have the better chance for rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.
• New York City and locations farther west generally have lower rain probabilities initially.
• Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as the system evolves.

💧 FLOODING THREAT

• At this time, the overall flooding threat appears low.
• Any flooding risk would favor the far eastern portions of the region and would most likely be minor.
• Current forecast rainfall amounts and flash-flood guidance do not support a significant flash-flood threat.
• A farther-west storm track could bring heavier rainfall farther west and increase the localized flooding risk.

💨 WIND

• Most areas are currently expected to remain below wind-advisory criteria.
• Eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut could come close to advisory-level gusts from late Friday into Saturday morning.
• The eventual strength and track of the coastal low will determine how strong winds become.

⚠️ STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY

This is the type of cutoff-low pattern that can be difficult for models to resolve several days in advance. Confidence is increasing, but the exact track, rainfall distribution and strongest winds could still shift.

📌 BOTTOM LINE: A wet and breezy period is becoming increasingly possible for parts of the Northeast this weekend, particularly closer to the coast. This does not currently look like a major flooding event, but the forecast needs to be monitored as the storm track becomes better defined.

09/22/2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon mainly east of I-65. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat.

- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 98-104 degree range through Wednesday.

- A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week into the weekend.

09/22/2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon mainly east of I-65. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat.

- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 98-104 degree range through Wednesday.

- A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week into the weekend.

09/22/2026

🌤️ WEATHER OUTLOOK — COOLER & DRIER AIR ON THE WAY

📅 Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Through Next Monday

We still have one more day with a chance for scattered thunderstorms before a much drier and somewhat cooler weather pattern settles across the region.

A weak upper-level trough remains over eastern portions of the area today while high pressure begins building in from the west. At the surface, a frontal boundary will settle through or just south of the region by later today.

⛈️ TODAY — A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

• Afternoon temperatures will climb into the middle 90s

• Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with daytime heating

• The better rain chances will generally be along and southeast of the Natchez Trace Parkway

• Any stronger thunderstorm could produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds

• A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms exists across portions of central and eastern Mississippi

• The primary severe-weather concern would be an isolated damaging wind gust

🌤️ DRIER AIR TAKES OVER

Once the front moves through, high pressure at the surface and aloft will become the dominant weather feature.

That means rain chances will quickly decrease, with mainly dry weather expected for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

The good news is that the air behind the front will also be noticeably drier.

🌡️ TEMPERATURES EASE BACK

Wednesday will remain warm, with afternoon highs generally in the lower to middle 90s.

By late week and through the weekend:

• Afternoon highs: Upper 80s to lower 90s

• Wednesday morning lows: Upper 60s to lower 70s

• Late-week and weekend lows: Lower to middle 60s

🍂 A LITTLE TASTE OF EARLY FALL

This isn’t a major cold front, but lower humidity and nighttime temperatures falling into the 60s should make mornings and evenings feel considerably more comfortable.

After today’s scattered thunderstorm opportunity, the overall weather pattern looks quiet, dry and less humid through much of the weekend and into early next week.

⚡ TODAY’S BOTTOM LINE: Keep an eye on the sky this afternoon, especially across central and eastern Mississippi. A few storms could become strong, but widespread severe weather is not expected.