Expert Hurricane Tracking

10/24/2025

10/24/2025

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 74.6 West.

Melissa may have reformed recently, with an estimated motion toward the east-southeast at 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion turning to the northeast and then north is expected to begin later today and tonight.

A westward turn is then forecast to begin on Saturday, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for today, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

10/24/2025

Tropical Storm Melissa is currently located in the central Caribbean, nearly stationary, with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. It is expected to rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane, potentially reaching Category 5 status, bringing catastrophic flooding, mudslides, and destructive winds to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.

Heavy rainfall of 12-18 inches is forecast, with isolated areas possibly seeing several feet of rain, leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 75.0 West. Melissa is drifting toward the east-southeast near 1 mph (2 km/h).

A slow drift toward the northeast and north is expected to begin later today and tonight. A westward drift is then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday.

On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend.

Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

10/23/2025

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, usually issued 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected.

10/23/2025

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince, and Jamaica.

10/23/2025

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince, and Jamaica.

10/23/2025

Tropical Storm Melissa is currently drifting north-northwestward at 2 miles per hour with sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. It is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and rapidly intensify into a major Category 4 hurricane by the end of the weekend. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding are predicted for Jamaica and Hispaniola, with 8 to 14 inches of rain expected in some areas. The storm's slow movement will exacerbate the flooding risk.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

10/23/2025

10/23/2025

Right now it’s not likely that Malissa will make it to category 5 but it’s a possibility it could reach category 4 according to the experts at the national hurricane Center

10/23/2025

Tropical Storm Melissa is presently situated in the central Caribbean Sea, approximately 240 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of nearly 50 miles per hour.

It is advancing slowly westward at a rate of 3 to 5 miles per hour. Although the storm's precise trajectory remains uncertain, we caution of potential repercussions on Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, with possible catastrophic flooding and destructive winds.

Melissa is anticipated to attain hurricane strength by the weekend and potentially intensify into a major hurricane. Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane, potentially reaching Category 4 strength with winds of approximately 130 miles per hour by Monday or early next week.

The storm's slow movement over record-hot waters in the Caribbean will contribute to its strengthening, posing a significant threat of catastrophic flooding and destructive winds to areas such as Jamaica and Haiti.

Melissa may bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and landslides to the region.

10/23/2025

Belize remains calm as Tropical Storm Melissa moves through the Caribbean

While Tropical Storm Melissa continues to swirl over the central Caribbean Sea, Belize remains unaffected, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

As of early Thursday morning, October 23, 2025, Melissa was situated in the central Caribbean, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 50 miles per hour and moving west-northwest. The system is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible landslides to parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica through the weekend.

The NHC reports that no new tropical cyclone formation is expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico within the next seven days, indicating that Belize is not under any immediate threat.

Locally, the Belize Met Service forecasts sunny spells with a few showers mainly over southern and coastal areas, typical of late October conditions. Authorities continue to closely monitor Melissa, but for now, Belizeans can expect calm seas and generally fair weather heading into the weekend.

10/23/2025

Hurricane Melissa is unlikely to enter the Gulf of Mexico, but forecast uncertainty is high. The storm may move northeast into the Atlantic Ocean, but some models suggest it could stall or move west, increasing the risk to the Gulf Coast.