Hurricane Warning Center (2025)

01/11/2025

SATURDAY TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THAT HURRICANE SEASON 2025 IS OVER

A winter weather pattern is forecast to settle over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic. Hostile upper-level winds are increasing spreading across the tropical belt, which is typical of the changing seasons.

It's always possible for a random system to develop in the extreme southern Caribbean or in the middle of the Atlantic, but every indication is that hurricane season is over for the U.S. and the surrounding areas.

If this is it, 2025 produced 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 of which were Category 3 and above—including, of course, 3 Category 5 monsters. This was only the second time that three Category 5 hurricanes formed in one season. The other one was the explosive season of 2005, which produced Katrina, Rita, Wilma, after July Cat 5 in the Caribbean named Emily.

The 2025 numbers are very close to average. The official time period we determine what is “normal” is from 1991 to 2020. The average over those years was 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, with 3 of the hurricanes Category 3 and above.

The catastrophic and meteorologically stunning event of the year was, of course, Hurricane Melissa. Melissa was as strong and perfectly formed as any hurricane you're likely to ever see. And in a horrible bit of timing, it peaked just before landfall.

Melissa is going to generate a lot of research because it didn't act like most ultra-strong hurricanes. It never went through what's called an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), which would have had the effect of weakening the winds, at least temporarily, and expanding the breadth of the storm. Apparently the core was so perfectly formed, and the weather pattern around the storm so immaculately supportive, that the ERC was never triggered.

In addition, measurements of extreme winds in the eyewall—even stronger than the 185-mph official landfall intensity—will be double-checked and evaluated. The National Hurricane Center will publish a report on the storm in the spring with their final analysis.

The Jamaicans, Cubans, and Haitians are going to need our help for some time. So as we celebrate a hurricane season with no significant impacts in the U.S., let's keep the people there in our thoughts.

29/10/2025

(THE EYE) A look inside the eye of one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded.

▶️ The first image came from the Sentinel-2 satellite, orbiting 488 miles above Earth.

▶️ The second is from a USAF Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying directly through the eye.

28/10/2025

Hurricane Melissa 5:00pm advisory
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

..CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN JAMAICA...
..DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba, residents should seek safe shelter. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be completed later tonight.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa will move away from western Jamaica this evening. After that, the center is expected to move over southeastern Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it could still be a major hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Melissa this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).

27/10/2025

5 PM Hurricane Melissa. Holding at 175 mph Cat 5 strength. The hurricane is starting its projected northward turn (currently NW).

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
..CATEGORY 5 MELISSA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
..CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 78.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Southeastern and Central Bahamas.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 78.4 West. Melissa is now
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the north is expected this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica late tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Melissa in a few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 906 mb (26.76 inches).

26/10/2025

Hurricane Melissa continues to get stronger. Winds have increased to 145 mph south of Jamaica. This is the 5 PM updated information.

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
..HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING.....LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. The government of Cuba has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additional watches and warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night,
and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in
intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

26/10/2025

SUNDAY MELISSA UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE MELISSA'S MULTI-DAY ASSAULT ON JAMAICA BEGINS TODAY

An extremely dangerous and unnerving scenario will unfold tonight, tomorrow, and Tuesday across the eastern half of Jamaica, including the capital, Kingston. Extreme rainfall is forecast—it will be measured in feet. Winds at landfall on the south coast look likely to be at least Category 4. Storm surge is forecast up to 13 feet above normal high tide in the bays and harbors east of the landfall point.

Here is the National Hurricane Center's strong and direct warning about what's coming to Jamaica: "Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is likely."

Hurricane Melissa will crawl west today over the near-record warm Caribbean water while increasingly pumping tropical moisture on tropical storm-force winds against the tall mountains. Tropical downpours will saturate the ground, laying the groundwork for flooding and mudslides to come.

The consensus of multiple computer forecasts is that the energy in the water will power Melissa to a high-end Category 4 or Category 5 intensity. The National Hurricane Center is explicitly forecasting Category 5 strength overnight tonight.

Tomorrow, Melissa is forecast to make a hard right turn, slowly increase its forward speed, and slam into Jamaica's south coast as the strongest storm on record to hit the island. The current expectation is that the winds with Melissa will be significantly stronger than those with Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which caused widespread destruction – although Melissa’s strongest winds will be in a south-to-north corridor. Gilbert raked the island east to west.

Along with the devastating winds, Melissa will push the Caribbean water over the coast up to 13 feet above normal high tide. This will be devastating to areas in bays and harbors where the peak storm surge is pushed over the shoreline near and to the east of where the center of the storm makes landfall.

It’s too close to call whether Kingston, the capital and by far the largest concentration of population in Jamaica, will be the focus of the worst impacts from Melissa. A deviation of 50 miles one way or the other can make a tremendous difference in what happens at any particular place. But Kingston is especially vulnerable to storms moving from south to north because its harbor opens to the south.

If Melissa makes landfall a short distance west of Kingston, the peak winds will rip through the city, and the storm surge will devastate the coastline. The harbor acts like a catcher's mitt and enhances the surge. The Kingston International Airport is on a narrow peninsula in the harbor. If the worst of the wind and surge is focused there, the airport looks to go underwater.

Every imaginable step to preserve life needs to be taken in the parts of Jamaica forecast to be impacted by Hurricane Melissa. It's critical that people find a place to that will remain above potential floodwaters in concrete buildings where they can hide from the wind. Unbelievably, hiding might be required for more than 24 hours.

OTHER AREAS AT RISK

The extreme flood threat continues on the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti, where a total of 3 feet of rain is forecast. Heavy rain and flooding are possible in other parts of the country as well. Heavy rainfall along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic will continue in spots, then slowly taper off as Melissa creeps farther away.

Hurricane conditions look likely in the eastern provinces of Cuba, so the government there has issued a hurricane watch. The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands also appear to be in Melissa's path. While the storm will likely still be formidable when it passes over Cuba and the islands, at least it will be moving at a pretty good clip.

Bermuda will have to keep an eye on it late in the week. It's forecast to head in that general direction.

Slow-moving intense hurricanes don't hit mountainous islands very often. But when they do, the results are catastrophic. In 1963, Hurricane Flora crossed over Haiti and parked over eastern Cuba. It was a giant storm that dumped some 5 feet of rain in Jamaica, which was on the periphery. Towns were washed away in Haiti. Eastern Cuba was devastated.

We can only hope that Melissa spares as many people on Jamaica as possible from its worst impacts. It’s critical that everyone understands the magnitude of the threat.

25/10/2025

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
..MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
..LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is moving toward slowly the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to
the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue
over the next day or so and Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major hurricane
when making landfall in Jamaica early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).

25/10/2025

SATURDAY MELISSA UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross EXTREME HURRICANE IMPACTS BEGIN TONIGHT IN JAMAICA

Tropical Storm Melissa is organizing while it sits over the Caribbean southeast of Jamaica. The hostile upper-level winds that have been holding it back have let up enough that a partial eyewall has formed. Melissa will likely intensify into a hurricane in a matter of hours. Once the storm has its structure in place, rapid intensification is forecast over the near-record warm water.

If Melissa goes down the middle of the National Hurricane Center cone and intensifies as forecast, catastrophic damage is likely in Jamaica from feet of torrential rain and Category 4 or 5 winds. The assault will last more than two days – which is hard to imagine.

Landfall is still about 2 1/2 days away – so the forecast track can still shift, of course. But any reasonable alternate path would still produce a foot and a half to 3 feet of rain across the eastern two-thirds of the island. No place can handle that kind of rain, and when it's an island with mountains that drain through towns and cities, the potential for widespread catastrophic flooding and mudslides is extreme. Here is the NOAA estimate for total rainfall through Tuesday from Melissa.

There is general agreement on the predicted track among the computer forecast models. Here are the official NHC forecast in red, the European (ENS) in yellow, and the Google DeepMind AI-based forecast in blue. All forecast an extreme threat to the eastern half of the island.

The yellowish and reddish areas show the forecast diameter of the winds of various strengths at 2:00 AM on Tuesday. Notice that the hurricane-force winds are forecast to be over the Kingston metropolitan area at that time.

South of Jamaica, the Caribbean water is extraordinarily warm, and the atmospheric pattern is forecast to be conducive to dramatic, rapid strengthening of the system. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Melissa to reach high-end Category 4 or Category 5 strength before it turns north. The current consensus track shows an extreme threat to the Kingston metropolitan area from flooding rain, wind, and storm surge.

Kingston Harbor opens to the south, and the airport is on a peninsula in the harbor. Storm surge up to 10 feet above normal high tide is forecast for somewhere on the southern coast of Jamaica east of where the center comes ashore. If that occurs in Kingston or just west of the city, there will be widespread damage to critical infrastructure.

It's too early to know exactly where the worst of the wind will be because it will occur in a relatively narrow corridor from south to north across the island. But the threat of extreme rainfall and widespread damage from floods and mudslides is likely to occur over a wide area.

The modern storm of record in Jamaica is Hurricane Gilbert from 1988. Gilbert caused devastation east to west, from one end of the country to the other. Melissa's winds are forecast to be stronger than Gilbert’s, but the storm will be moving south to north. Damaging winds will not impact the entire island. Gilbert dumped almost 3 feet of rain in the mountains, which is similar to the estimates of the rainfall predicted from Hurricane Melissa.

HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Extreme rainfall is also forecast over the Tiburon Peninsula in southwest Haiti, with heavy rain in other parts of the country as well. Significant flooding has already occurred along the south coast of the Dominican Republic, including in Santo Domingo. Additional rainfall is expected.

OTHER THAN JAMAICA

Melissa will likely be weakened by its trek over the high terrain on Jamaica, but will still be a formidable storm when it makes landfall late Tuesday or early Wednesday in eastern Cuba. Mountains there and increasingly hostile upper winds should weaken it some as it moves through the southeastern Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos will also be impacted if Melissa takes the forecast track.

The Cayman Islands look to be outside of the extreme threat zone, although fringe effects are possible, especially in the waters around the islands.

Puerto Rico is on the edge of the moisture feed. Spotty tropical downpours could still occur until the storm moves west.

Everybody in the affected areas should put maximum effort into finding a safe place where the floods can't reach them. People in areas near the storm's track should be sure they are in a sturdy concrete building where they can hide from the wind.

Everything is going to be in slow motion until late Monday or Tuesday when, if the forecast is right, Melissa will suddenly attack Jamaica and move on to Cuba and the Bahamas. Stay informed and prepare now.

22/10/2025

The National Hurricane Center now calls for Melissa to become an extremely dangerous Major Hurricane in the Western Caribbean by early next week. Hispaniola, Jamaica, The Caymans, Cuba, and The Bahamas should start hurricane preps as soon as possible. 🌀

5PM ADVISORY: Tropical Storm Melissa struggling to gain strength -- for now.

It's now forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane by early next week potentially near Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
..MELISSA MEANDERING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.....HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a turn back
westward by this weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial intensification forecast by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

21/10/2025

11AM ADVISORY - Tropical Storm Melissa has formed in the Caribbean Sea. It is forecast to become a hurricane this week, though there is high-uncertainty in its future track. A hurricane watch is in effect for parts of Haiti and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
..THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
..HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of
Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.
The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Border with Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and
north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti
and Jamaica later this week.

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

20/10/2025

Disturbance (INVEST 98L) in the Caribbean is going through an area of low wind shear and hot ocean temperatures. Conditions are favorable for a storm to form this week. The next name on the list: Melissa.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Recent satellite wind data indicate the tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea still lacks a closed circulation, but continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis. Compared to yesterday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development as the system slows its forward motion. A tropical depression or storm is now likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. For addition information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Hurricane Warning Center

01/11/2025

29/10/2025

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27/10/2025

26/10/2025

26/10/2025

25/10/2025

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20/10/2025

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