Hurricane Warning Center (2025)

08/08/2025

The updated NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook is that the May prediction remains on track for above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. On average, nearly 80% of all named storms in the Atlantic occur after August 14, so we have a long way to go. Prepare now... https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/prediction-remains-on-track-for-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season

07/08/2025

TROPICS UPDATE & LIVE Q&A TODAY WITH Bryan Norcross

NO THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WATCHING FOR DEVELOPMENTS NEXT WEEK

In preparation for the peak of hurricane season, we’re doing another Hurricane HQ&A live on social media this afternoon at 1:30 PM ET. This week we’re going to test streaming to 10 social media platforms simultaneously – multiple channels on Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, LinkedIn, X, and Instagram.

I’ll answer your questions as well, of course, but we’d also like to hear from you to know how the system is working.

We want to be ready in case we have a significant threat this season.

ACROSS THE ATLANTIC

Two very different systems are thinking about developing—one near the Southeast coast and the other far out in the Tropical Atlantic. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Dexter is in its last day as a tropical storm. It has almost fully transitioned to a non-tropical North Atlantic low-pressure system.

The system’s winds are forecast to reach hurricane strength, but it won’t be termed an official hurricane since its structure will be like a nor’easter.

SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST

A weak circulation has formed on the northern end of an elongated area of disturbed weather well offshore of Florida and the Southeast coast. The circulation is forecast to move north, passing offshore of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina in a couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a low chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm because it's going to run out of time.

Computer forecast models predict that the system will intensify, but as a non-tropical storm like the new version of Dexter. It will only get a name if it still has some tropical characteristics when it organizes, and the window of time when that could happen appears to be short.

If the system passes offshore of eastern North Carolina as currently forecast, it should have minimal effect. In fact, it would draw dry air across the Carolinas, diminishing the chances of rain this weekend.

The bottom half of the system will break off and continue across the Florida Peninsula, increasing atmospheric moisture and the chances of tropical downpours. Late in the weekend, the system heads into the Gulf.

Computer forecasts have shown a slight chance a low-pressure system might develop in the Gulf, but nothing significant is expected. The main effect will be another surge of tropical moisture over the Southeast lasting into next week once again increasing the chance of thunderstorms.

ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC

The tropical disturbance we've been following is slowly beginning its move to the north. The National Hurricane Center has tagged it Invest —meaning they are running their array of computer models specifically designed for tropical systems.

There is high confidence this system will not impact land. The National Hurricane Center gives it a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. It will be fighting dry Saharan dust and, at times, hostile upper winds as it tracks into the central Atlantic. In any case, it's no threat.

Another tropical disturbance is about to move off Africa. Blocking high pressure is forecast to keep this one from turning north so quickly, so it will head in the general direction of the Caribbean for a good part of next week.

LOOKING AHEAD

Some long-range computer forecasts indicate that this system could be a threat to land around next weekend and into the following week. Others show it turning north well east of the U.S. Obviously, 10+ days out is well past the time that we have any confidence in the forecasts, but it is likely an indication that the overall weather pattern over the Atlantic is increasingly conducive for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop.

For now, don't focus on the long-range forecasts. The odds of any particular outcome actually happening are extremely low, so it’s not worth thinking about. Let's see what state the system is in when we start next week.

Forecasts for disorganized systems or systems that haven’t yet organized are subject to large errors and always jump around. There is nothing for the computer models to lock on to, so there’s no clean starting point from which to make a forecast. Ignore social media posts and plan a nice weekend.

06/08/2025

TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross CSU IS OUT WITH A NEW FORECAST WHILE TROPICAL POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREAS EXPAND

The forecasting team at Colorado State University led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach has issued their final forecast of the year. They didn't make any changes from the July prediction. They're staying with 16 named storms, 8 of which develop into hurricanes, and 3 of those become Category 3 or higher.

The forecasters acknowledge that this prediction comes with more uncertainty than normal because of conflicting signals across the tropics. On one hand, the Atlantic and Pacific water temperatures are in ranges that are somewhat supportive of tropical development. On the other, the upper-level winds over the Caribbean through June and July have been hostile, and that's normally a sign of less storm development across the Atlantic.

The net result is the steady-state forecast – a slightly above average season.

Across the tropics today, atmospheric conditions continue to be somewhat hostile, so nothing is expected to develop quickly. But the National Hurricane Center is drawing potential development areas near the Southeast coast and in the middle of the ocean.

There is a decent chance that both of these systems will eventually develop into at least a depression, if not a named storm. But there are conflicting signals on when it will happen, so the potential development areas have been expanded.

OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS

The weather pattern is stuck in a rut over the Southeast. Now, odds have increased slightly that another storm will develop offshore of the Carolinas triggered by low pressure loosely associated with the old front that's been hanging around. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression.

Current computer forecasts show the system slowly developing tomorrow and then drifting past Cape Hatteras and out to sea over the weekend. If the system tracks over the Gulf Stream, there's a good chance it will strengthen into Tropical Storm Erin. If, however, it interacts with land, it could stay disorganized.

The exact track has a lot to do with how much rain falls over the Carolinas. A track along the coast could produce flooding rains. A track offshore, which now looks more likely, would reduce the amount of rain over eastern North Carolina.

Since the system hasn't developed yet, as always, the forecasts are subject to larger than normal errors and are subject to change.

At the same time that potential-eventual-Erin is drifting along or near the Carolina coast, a related moisture-laden mid-level disturbance will move across Florida and into the Gulf. This will increase the likelihood of tropical downpours across the Florida Peninsula. Eventually, the system is forecast to track into the northern Gulf, bringing another slug of moisture into the Southeast early next week.

Some of the computer forecast models suggest that a weak low-pressure system could form over the warm Gulf waters. That's still a possibility, but the odds are very low. In any case, it wouldn't be significant. The extra moisture and the heavy rainfall are the main issues.

OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC

The disturbance we've been following is slowly tracking across the Tropical Atlantic just south of a plume of Saharan dust. A second disturbance on its heels will cross the African coast in the next couple of days.

The first disturbance triggered the NHC's large potential development area, showing medium odds of the system becoming a tropical depression somewhere in that orange zone. By tomorrow, the consensus of the various computer forecasts is that it will begin its move north through the dust and dry air. By the weekend, there's a decent chance it will find a pocket well north in the Atlantic that's conducive enough to development that the system will evolve into a tropical depression or perhaps a tropical storm.

If the system near the Southeast uses Erin, this one would be Fernand.

The forecasts that had been showing the possibility of the system staying south and heading west on a threatening path have changed their mind. The consensus is this system will head north and not affect land. But of course, we will keep an eye on it to be sure.

The trailing disturbance looks to take a southern route. There's no indication of any rapid development, and the weather pattern does not look especially conducive to the system strengthening quickly next week, but some credible long-range projections indicate the possibility of an eventual threat.

It will bear watching, of course, as we head into the middle of the month when statistics say the odds of storm development start to increase quickly.

05/08/2025

TUESDAY 8AM TROPICS OUTLOOK- Tropical wave forecast to move into more favorable conditions for development. A depression or storm could form late week or over the weekend in the Central Tropical Atlantic.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak surface trough currently located several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States is expected to form an area of low pressure in a day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week or weekend as as the low initially moves slowly westward, but turns more northward by this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the southwest of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

04/08/2025

TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross TROPICAL STORM DEXTER AND MORE AREAS TO WATCH IN THE ATLANTIC

Tropical Storm Dexter is well off the coast of North Carolina and moving out to sea. The storm is going to have a short life. It’s already encountering hostile upper-level winds, so it will soon be absorbed into the North Atlantic flow.

Dexter was spawned by the stubborn frontal system stretching from the Atlantic waters off the East Coast, across North Florida and South Georgia, and along the Gulf Coast. The front is the dividing line between relatively cool air to the north and moist tropical air to the south.

OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST

Low-pressure systems form along fronts like this—they are called frontal waves. If one of these lows sits over the warm Atlantic water, and the upper-level winds are conducive to development, a tropical system can spin up. That's what happened with Dexter, and it could happen again off the South Carolina coast.

The National Hurricane Center is drawing a mini lemon indicating a chance that another frontal low will park over the warm water long enough to take on some tropical characteristics. The ocean water offshore of the Carolinas is unusually warm this year.

NHC forecasters have the system’s odds of development in the low range.

About Thursday, the same time the computer forecasts show the low developing off the Southeast coast, a weak disturbance full of moisture is forecast to arrive from the Atlantic injecting moisture into the frontal low, but also pushing a moisture surge across the Florida Peninsula.

The net net of all this is the likelihood of heavy rain from the Carolinas to South Florida late in the week. A depression could form, but nothing strong is likely to come of it. The issue is the expected the flood potential from heavy and/or persistent rain.

The system hasn't even started thinking about forming, so any prediction comes with large errors and the high likelihood that it's going to change. So just in case something worse-than-expected happens, stay informed in the affected areas.

IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC

A moderately robust disturbance moving off the coast of Africa has a decent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression somewhere in the large orange area drawn by the National Hurricane Center. The orange color indicates that the chances of development are in the medium range.

The various computer forecast models—including the new AI models—offer a wide variety of outcomes for this system. Most of the predictions show the system turning north into the dry and dusty air and not affecting land, although the American GFS model has been insisting that the blocking high pressure system will rebuild across the Atlantic and push the system farther west.

Things are going to move slowly, so we’ll have lots of time with this system.

The caveats all apply here, of course. The system is just moving off the coast, so until about midweek, the computer systems won't have a good starting point from which to begin forecasting.

More systems are behind this one over the African continent, and long-range computer forecasts show some development with them. Next week’s system is preliminarily forecast to take a more southern track where more moisture is available. We’ll see.

The long-anticipated weather regime that is more conducive to tropical development seems to be getting underway a little ahead of schedule.

There is no indication of any strong storms threatening land, certainly for the next week. But across the South into the Mid-Atlantic, plan to stay informed later this week when we should have a better handle on what might or might not develop in the lemon drop offshore of the Carolinas.

Some local flooding is likely. Stay aware of alerts issued by the National Weather Service.

03/08/2025

2PM TROPICS: Now up to three areas to watch for potential tropical development, including a non-tropical low that continues to get better organized as it tracks farther away from the US East Coast

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Western Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the North Carolina coast. While satellite wind data show that the low is now producing gale-force winds, the system remains attached to a frontal boundary. However, environmental conditions are conducive for this system to acquire additional tropical characteristics, and a tropical storm is likely to form by Monday well east of the North Carolina coast. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by late Monday. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Off the Southeastern United States:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days a few hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas. Some gradual development of this system is possible by midweek as the system drifts to the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

02/08/2025

TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross LONG RANGE FORECASTS SUDDENLY SHOW THE ATLANTIC COMING ALIVE

Before I discuss the changes in the long-range computer forecasts, there's a new area to monitor off the Southeast coast. The National Hurricane Center is drawing a squished lemon—or more like a summer squash, actually—offshore of North Carolina. This non-tropical low-pressure system is related to a front sagging toward the coast. It's forecast to move offshore and could take on some tropical characteristics as it moves away from land.

There is no expectation that this system will pose a threat, but it could add to the seasonal storm list if it develops winds of at least 40 mph.

The bigger threat on land is the quasi-permanent front that's going to settle across North Florida and southeastern Georgia. Periods of heavy rain are likely over the next few days, and some flooding is possible. Stay in touch with local National Weather Service alerts.

LONG-RANGE COMPUTER FORECASTS

A disturbance is forecast to move off Africa tomorrow and head in the general direction of the Caribbean. Suddenly, there is broad consensus among the various computer forecast models—both the traditional ones and the new AI models—that this system will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane.

The possible future tracks range from the Gulf to offshore of the East Coast, so there's certainly no definitive threat at this time. In addition, the long-range predictions show this happening well into next week, beyond the period that we have much confidence in the forecasts.

The takeaway at this point is that the consensus of the various computer forecasts suggests that the atmosphere over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf looks to become conducive to tropical development in 10 to 15 days.

Looking at the calendar, if this happens, it would be right on schedule. Obviously, we're moving toward the traditionally busier part of the hurricane season.

For now, we wait, and make sure our hurricane plans are in place.

01/08/2025

TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross THE ATLANTIC LOOKS QUIET THROUGH NEXT WEEK + Q&A RESCHEDULED FOR TODAY

A robust tropical disturbance will move across the northeast Caribbean islands starting later today and through the weekend. Gusty squalls are likely and local flash flooding is possible. If the tropical Atlantic weren't so dusty and dry, this system would likely have developed into a tropical storm or a hurricane.

The obvious circulation visible by satellite is being choked by dust and dry air. Enough moisture remains, however, to bring tropical downpours to the islands.

The computer forecast models disagree on where the moisture goes next. Some forecasts pull it north toward a very wet front draped across south Georgia and northern Florida. Others take the blob of moisture toward the Florida Peninsula, and the Gulf. In any case, the odds of any development are very low.

The current long range, computer forecasts give the next disturbance, which is forecast to come off Africa about Monday, a little better chance of developing. But atmospheric conditions across the Atlantic continue to be hostile to significant development.

There are signs the general atmospheric pattern will become more conducive to development week after next – toward the middle of the month. But we’ll have to see how the various positive and negative factors work against each other as we approach the traditionally busy part of the hurricane season.

HURRICANE HQ&A

We had planned to do a live Q&A session yesterday afternoon on Facebook, YouTube, and for the first time, TikTok. The extreme rainfall and flooding threat in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast caused us to postpone it, however.

Now we’ll be live this afternoon (Friday) at 4 PM ET taking your questions and testing our system that we plan to deploy if there’s a significant hurricane threat. I hope to see you later today on my page or FOX Weather’s Facebook, YouTube or TikTok channels.

30/07/2025

TROPICS UPDATE WITH Bryan Norcross THE ATLANTIC REMAINS HOSTILE TO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT… FOR NOW

The tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic has lost most of its moisture, and the going is going to stay rough. The steering flow is going to bend its track to the north where the air is very dry, the pressure is high, and the upper winds are hostile. The system is likely to continue to lose moisture.

There are actually two disturbances in a strung-out area of disturbed weather off the African coast. They are forecast to merge today and tomorrow with what's left of their moisture and energy arriving in the vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean late tomorrow or Saturday. A slight moisture surge is all that's expected in the Islands.

What happens next continues to be a bit of an open question. The most likely outcome is not much. But late next week we can't rule out at least a tropical depression somewhere east of the Bahamas, although the latest computer forecasts indicate that the odds are low.

The National Hurricane Center continues to call for a quiet Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf for the next 7 days.

Another disturbance is in line behind this first significant one of the season. Long-range computer forecasts indicate that it will have a chance to develop. Each disturbance that comes along moistens the path across the tropical belt to some degree, and as we move into August, on average the Saharan dust will fade.

So we'll just keep an eye on it.

IN THE PACIFIC

Mother Nature has gone crazy. There's a hurricane, a tropical storm, and three more systems trying to develop. None of them are a threat to land for now, although a new storm forming off Mexico could track near Hawaii next week.

All this is very unusual, and there's no obvious mechanism triggering it. The Eastern and Central Pacific are normally busy in El Niño years, when the equatorial waters there are unusually warm. That's not the case this year.

There's a small strip of water that's slightly warmer than normal well south of Hawaii, and the named storms are threading that needle. It’s the overall atmospheric pattern that has to be extremely conducive to development.

The supportive factors appear to include the MJO, which is a pulse that slowly moves around the Earth from west to east. It alternately enhances and suppresses storm development. And there are other transitional factors involved.

The MJO forecasts indicate that it will be over the Atlantic around mid-August. That doesn't mean that tropical development will suddenly explode. We don't know how strong the pulse will be at that time, and whether the other factors will be enhancing development as well.

In any case, tropical activity normally ramps up in the middle of August. We'll see if it suddenly switches on like it did in the Eastern Pacific early in the season and now again in both the Eastern and Central Pacific. That’s often the way it works.

30/07/2025

From National Tsunami Warning Center

From National Tsunami Warning Center

Tsunami Message Number 5

Earthquake Information
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Location: 315 miles SW of Bering I., Komandorski
Lat: 52.200
Lon: 160.000
Magnitude: 8.8
Origin Time: 2025-07-29T23:24:56 UTC [PDT, AKDT]
Depth: 74 kilometers
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Warning
The tsunami Warning is modified to include the coastal areas of California from Cape Mendocino, California to The Oregon/Cal. Border.

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Warning
The tsunami Warning remains in effect for the coastal areas of Alaska from Samalga Pass, Alaska (30 miles SW of Nikolski) to Attu, Alaska.

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Advisory
The tsunami Advisory remains in effect for the coastal areas of California from The Cal./Mexico Border to Cape Mendocino, California.

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Advisory
The tsunami Advisory remains in effect for the coastal areas of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia from The Oregon/Cal. Border to The BC/Alaska Border.

----------------------------------
Advisory
The tsunami Advisory remains in effect for the coastal areas of Alaska from Chignik Bay, Alaska to Samalga Pass, Alaska (30 miles SW of Nikolski).

----------------------------------
Tsunami warnings mean that a tsunami with significant
inundation is expected or occurring. Warnings indicate that
widespread dangerous coastal flooding accompanied by powerful currents are possible and may continue for several hours after the initial wave arrival.
----------------------------------
Actions:
Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on this event at tsunami.gov.

Additional Information and Next Update:
* The tsunami message will remain in effect until further notice.
* Refer to the internet site tsunami.gov for more information.
* This message will be updated in 60 minutes or sooner if the situation warrants.

29/07/2025

TUESDAY TROPICS OUTLOOK- It remains quiet in the Atlantic Basin.

**TROPICAL WAVES**

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 10N to 12N between 20W and 23W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 18N,
moving westward at around 5 kt. A 1012 mb low pres is noted near 10N37W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong winds within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 11N and between 38W and 41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active over the Mona Passage.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 18N to 20N between 74W and 76W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found within 90 nm of the Central American coast from western Panama to Belize.

28/07/2025

The tropics remain quiet just a few waves out there.

**TROPICAL WAVES**

An central tropical Atlantic is along 37W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 11N and between 35W and 38W.

An active tropical wave is along 63W in the eastern Caribbean,
south of 24N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Divergent flow aloft is supporting numerous moderate convection from 21N to 25N and between 59W and 62W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 11N between 60W and 62W, and from 15N to 17N between 61W and 63W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate that these storms are also producing wind gusts to near gale force.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 20W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 15N to 17N and between 69W and 72W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Clusters of moderate convection are active from 18N to 20N between 86W and 87W.

Hurricane Warning Center

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