Bread & Milk

17/12/2025

Watching the pattern between Christmas and New Year’s 👀❄️❓

Guidance continues to hint at a more active upper level pattern as we head into the final week of December. Cold air may not be locked in, but it does look close enough at times that any storm system will need to be watched carefully.

This is not a single storm signal yet. It is more about timing and pattern alignment over several days.

Still too early for specifics, but this window has my attention. 🔮

More clarity as we get closer 🎄➡️🗓️

15/12/2025

🎄 Watching a wintry weather window around Christmas week 👀

Guidance continues to suggest a more confluent upper level flow developing to our N across SE Canada as we head into Christmas week. This pattern favors periodic high pressure sliding through SE Canada, which can act as a delivery system for cold air into the Mid Atlantic.

At the same time, a fast zonal jet stream💨 is expected to remain active, with several storm systems racing across the northern tier of the US. If one of these systems arrives while cold air is still in place, we could see a brief wintry mix on the front end 🌨️🌧️ before a change to rain.

⚠️ Timing remains the challenge If the cold air arrives late or slips away too quickly, rain dominates. In some cases, this setup can also favor ice before rain, which can cause travel issues even with limited snowfall.

📍 Geography matters Areas farther N stand a better chance of remaining in the colder air longer. Chances for wintry impacts decrease moving S, especially from Philly on S.

👀 Key timeframe to watch The most likely window appears to be a few days surrounding Christmas, roughly 12/23 through 12/28. One or more systems during this stretch could turn messy if timing lines up.

I will continue tracking the pattern and share updates as confidence improves.🔮❄️

15/12/2025

Snowy scene today at Valley Forge National Historical Park ☃️

14/12/2025

FORECAST VS REALITY
Overall, accumulation tiers verified fairly well, but there were surprises.

The Poconos overachieved with multiple 6-8" totals, likely aided by upslope, despite guidance keeping the best dynamics farther away.

I debated mentioning isolated higher totals in the 3-6" zone but ultimately held back and that proved conservative.

Philly struggled early due to the Urban Heat Island effect, they didn't see accumulation until 4am on.

Snow started wetter than I expected before turning fluffier late. Hence the trees caked in snow.

A unique system that clearly overachieved for many.

Looking ahead, a very active pattern continues, with more variability in temps, and wintry mix chances as we approach the Christmas to New Years timeframe.

Follow along and stay tuned!

14/12/2025

Snow showers 🌨️ may develop tomorrow (Monday) afternoon and early evening mainly N&W of Philly. Little to no accumulation expected but it certainly would enhance the wintry feel we are experiencing.

The below normal temps continue through Tuesday before moderating closer to normal Wednesday.

14/12/2025

Deep Winter Activated 😁🥶

In the wake of the snow, we turn bitterly cold and windy:

🌬️ Winds increase today reaching upwards of 30-40 mph into tonight
❄️ There is the potential for blowing snow today causing reduced visibility
🌡️Lows tonight are in the teens and wind chill values are as low as 0 to -10 degrees

14/12/2025

It's rare for a clipper to have a trough dig this much, it's just good timing for all of this to come together.

- sufficient cold (with even colder air moving in as the storm departs) ✅
- trough digging to our west, not too much, not too little ✅
- moisture present ✅
- no out of place high pressure ✅
- upper level heights just right over the northeast, not too compressed, not too displaced ✅

This is why snow lovers around Philly appreciate when all the pieces of the puzzle fit together, as they so seldom do.

Let's not forget, this all happened on December 13th-14th!

14/12/2025

Multiple reports of thundersnow ⚡🌨️ around Baltimore as the coastal storm starts to ramp up (5am)

14/12/2025

A wet snow most of the night here just NW of Philly as temps hovered around 32° all night.

This will be a very picturesque scene upon daybreak.

You can see how the snow stuck here to each individual pine needle of this Eastern White Pine🌲at first, and now drier snowflakes ❄️ are accumulating on top of that.

14/12/2025

Snow ends this morning but then winds ramp up and temps slowly drop this afternoon. Some blowing snow N&W of Philly. We stay at or below freezing Monday then moderate above freezing Tuesday

14/12/2025

The backend of the snow is drifting SE but the Philly region still has several more hours to go. ☃️

This has been a rather wet & heavy snow to start, especially closer to Philly.

It will look beautiful upon daybreak, but BE CAREFUL when shoveling, take your time and take breaks.

KDIX - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 3:34 AM

14/12/2025

The radar is blossoming! Snow while you sleep 😴☃️☃️☃️