02/17/2026
Sunday February 16th 2025.
We’re now a year past the second worst flood in the history of the Tug Fork River Valley. A year ago today, the Tug Fork River broke previous records at Bradshaw, Panther Creek, and Litwar, while tying the all-time record at Welch. Both Williamson and Kermit saw water depths reach within 4’ of their all time records.
We believe three main factors contributed to the flood being the catastrophic event it was, especially downriver from Matewan to Kermit.
The first factor was the amount of snow that had fallen in mid January; much of the Tug Fork River Valley had snow on the ground for 20+ days in January due to cold temperatures. Snowmelt had occurred substantially leading up to the 48-hour window prior to the flood.
The second factor was significant rainfall over Buchanan County, Virginia. Some of the heaviest rains that caused the flood downriver fell near Hurley, Virginia causing Knox Creek to rise out of its banks. That massive amount of water ran into the Tug Fork River at Devon (near Beech Creek) and there was no river gauge between that point and Williamson. Due to copper thefts, the old gauge on the bridge in Matewan has been out of service for several years.
The third factor was the downplay of the river forecast from the NWS/NOAA as the event began. 48 hours before the flood on February 13th, a forecast was issued calling for a crest of 30.9’ in Williamson. The forecast was lowered to 29’ at 1pm on February 15th. At some point in the early hours of February 16th, the forecast crest was updated to 49’ but at this point, many folks had dismissed the river getting to a major level event.
Uniquely in Williamson, the city’s floodwall system was put to a real world test for the first time since it was completed in 1991. While the project was initially controversial due to it affecting the city’s footprint along the river, the decision to have the wall built saved the city millions of dollars of damage in 2025.
As all this water worked its way downriver, the AEP substation at Borderland went underwater and thousands were without power. To add further issues, temperatures dropped nearly 20 degrees and a light snow fell overnight. Additionally, in the city of Williamson, water pumps were clogged and unable to intake water resulting in residents being without any utilities for at-least 2 days.
Even now, a year later, some places haven’t recovered and likely never will. Through all this we hope to have learned though to respect and not forget the power of Mother Nature through the mountains of the Tug Fork River Valley.
