13/08/2025
Choose Chaos everytime.
ERIN | The ensemble runs from the GFS, EURO & EURO AI have really come into alignment over the last 24 hours.
Over the weekend, the model runs were spread out all over the place the shifted quite a bit following each update. This morning, they really have seemed to come into a lot more agreement regarding Erin's turn to the north. If this holds, the storm will completely miss the East Coast of the United States. Bermuda is the only place that would need to watch this track.
NOTE: If you're unfamiliar with enseble runs, they are NOT like the sphagetti models. The spaghetti models are hurricane specific models that are run for each storm. Each line on the map is a completely different model.
Ensembles are individual plots OF THE SAME MODEL. Because models make a lot of assumptions about what the weather is doing out in the middle of the ocean (or anywhere really) it's very likely that one or more of those assumptions is off by enough to really impact the forecast.
One way to get around this is to take the same model, tweak one of the variables (temperature, pressure, humidity, location of a high or low pressure system, etc.) & re-run the model with the new data. What you get is a slightly different result.
The more the ensemble tracks are together, the more confidence the model has in the track. If they're spread far apart, it's likely there is less confidence in that part of the track by that particular model.
