04/09/2024
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the
Carolinas ridging wswwd across the sern CONUS and maintaining a very
moist srly flow across the region. Meanwhile, a pair of frontal
systems were noted upstream. Water v***r imagery showed a cutoff low
spinning across the swrn CONUS, with a deep swrly flow providing a
good Pacific moisture plume across our region. The midnight
sounding showed all this well with a Precipitable Water value of a whopping 1.9
inches, well over the daily max per Storm Prediction Center climo, along with a mean RH
exceeding 80 percent. Area observations show generally cloudy skies
ongoing. Area weather radars look quiet for the moment, although regional
radars indicate a new round of convection developing upstream.
Latest guidance indicates that the bulk of today looks fairly
uneventful across the forecast area with just a smattering of
showers/storms expected, primarily this morning across the nrn-
most zones in vicinity of the ongoing developing convection.
Elsewhere, the day looks to be a cloudy/warm one with highs in the
lower 80s. As I forgot to mention yesterday morning, it will again
be a fairly breezy day with a tight gradient in place between the
Atlantic high and low pressure over wrn TX. Latest wind grids
place the srn 1/2 of the area squarely on the bubble as far as the
need for a wind advisory this afternoon and into this evening as
speeds approach criteria, along with plentiful gusts to near 30
mph.
The real fun comes tonight into Wednesday with latest Continental Air Mass
guidance showing multiple rounds of convection, starting late this
afternoon across our far nwrn zones before spreading ewd. The
initial round, largely made up of discrete cells before maybe
congealing into a large cluster over the nrn half of the area,
could produce severe storms, with all modes of severe possible,
although large hail/damaging gusts being the primary threats. Then
late tonight into Wednesday, as the sfc low translates ewd from
TX, a nasty looking squall line is progged to develop and slip
west-to-east across the forecast area. With its latest updates, SPC
has expanded the Enhanced Risk for Day 1 a little deeper into our
area, now covering the nwrn 1/3. However for Day 2 starting
tomorrow morning, the enhanced covers essentially of our LA zones
while our nern corner has been upgraded to Moderate, with SPC
noting an increased tornado threat.
Latest storm total (6am today to 6pm Thursday) precip values
range have come down a bit across the srn zones, but have nudged
upward to near 4.0 inches across portions of cntl LA. A flood
watch may be required across our nrn zones by later today if mean
Quantitative Precip Forecast values continue to rise.
As of now, all the precip is expected to move out of the area with
the passage of the sfc low/cool front by late Wednesday.
Temperatures are forecast to drop back to slightly below normal
values for lows Wednesday night. Highs for Thursday are then
progged to run in the seasonal 70s. However with Cold Air Advection ongoing
behind the frontal passage, it will remain breezy, making it feel
cooler.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
A quiet and pleasant long term period can be expected. A surface
high pressure will be over SETX at the start of the long term, with
weak ridging over the western CONUS building eastward. While temps
will start off seasonal (climatologically speaking) we will see a
warming trend continue going for the rest of the period.
The high pressure will relocate itself over the eastern Gulf Coast
by Saturday which in turn will allow for southerly flow to become
reestablished over us. Temps and dewpoints will be on the rise and
outside of it feeling more humid, cloud cover starts to return over
the weekend.
The beginning of the work week will feel similar to the weekend with
an added few degrees bump to the temps. A bowling ball of an upper
level low will be rolling into the Cali coast then into the desert
SW, however we will not see any impacts from this until right past
the end of this forecast period.
