Laser 101 Storm Watch Team

17/08/2025

TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN & ST. BARTHS

# # ERIN 1100PM UPDATE # # #
..ERIN STILL A FORMIDABLE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNDERGOING
STRUCTURAL CHANGES.....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURING OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 65.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of France has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36-48 hours
in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 65.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue through Sunday with a decrease in forward speed. A turn
more northward is expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to begin moving away
from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and pass to the
east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Sunday night and Monday.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data
indicates that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140
mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity
are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural
changes with Erin.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by Air Force reserve
dropsonde data is 937 mb (27.67 inches)

15/08/2025

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory
200 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 56.8W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 56.8 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane
during the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
forecast office.

15/08/2025

Elektra and Suppa from the Storm Watch Team are in the studio bringing you live updates as Hurricane Erin moves across the region. Stay informed and stay safe, St. Maarten!

Next update: Don’t miss the 2PM intermediate advisory for the latest developments.

🔴 Stay alert. Stay prepared. Stay tuned.

15/08/2025

ERIN STARTING TO MAKE THE WNW TURN
..ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 52.7W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 52.7 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion
expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few
days and Erin is expected to become a hurricane tonight and could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

14/08/2025

St. Maarten is currently under a Tropical Storm Watch

# # # #

TS ERIN - 8PM INTERMEDIATE UPDATE
..NOAA AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT ERIN IS NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.9W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 51.9 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to
continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward
Islands over the weekend.

NOAA aircraft data indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Erin is
expected to soon become a hurricane and could become a major
hurricane by the end of this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA Hurricane Hunter
dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

13/08/2025

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025
..ERIN CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD.....EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 43.4W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 43.4 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward
motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or
just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight,
and Erin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

13/08/2024

# NATIONAL ADDRESS FROM PM LIC MERCELINA - UPDATE ON TS ERNESTO #

QUICKNOTES:
*Tropical Storm Warning will be discontinued as of 8pm

*We will remain under a flood watch and small craft advisory until further notice

*Port St. Maarten will remained closed until seas have subside (no damage to infrastructure)

*PJIA (airport) will resume operations as of 7am, Wednesday, August 14 (please contact respective airlines for flight updates)

*Schools will remain closed and reopen on Thursday, August 15

*Businesses can reopen as of Wednesday, August 14

*Governemnt offices will resume regular hours and services on Wednesday, August 14

*No severe damage to the road networks, clean-up crews are busy clearing roads of downed trees and small debris. Please drive with caution

*Flood-prone areas are flooded. Please proceed with caution when in these areas

National Address by the Prime Minister of Sint Maarten Dr. Luc Mercelina updating the public on the passing of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

13/08/2024

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024
..ERNESTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ST. KITTS
AND NEVIS.....HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, VIEQUES, AND
CULEBRA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 62.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Culebra, and Vieques.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 62.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion
toward the northwest and then north at a slower forward speed is
expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this
evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto
Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the
western Atlantic later in the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) was recently
reported on St. Barthelemy.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands
from Guadeloupe to Dominica and across the U.S and British Virgin
Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals
of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area in the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible
over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into
tonight.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to
Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the
Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday.

13/08/2024

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024
..ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 61.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move
across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is
forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday
over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. St. Barthelemy reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90
km/h), and St. Martin reported a gust of 50 mph (80 km/h) during
the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with
maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands...1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
warning area for the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
by this evening.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico
from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.
John, and St. Croix.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and will spread westward to
Puerto Rico later today. These swells will then reach the
Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda on Thursday.

13/08/2024

National address from PM Dr. Luc Mercelina - TS Ernesto