21/01/2025
We’re finally here! After months of festivals, box office results, and precursor awards, it’s finally time to put the chips down on who will find themselves in the Academy’s good graces. Things are much more chaotic compared to last year, where you could place Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Barbie into nearly every category and come out with a decent record.
This all leads me to my most important lesson of Oscar prognosticating: You have to go in with the mindset that you’re going to get 25% of your predictions wrong. The top score over at GoldDerby for last year’s nominations was around 80%. I like to go in with the same mindset I have for golf; which is not to make the most great shots, but to make the least bad ones. A gutsy shot tends to backfire more than it succeeds, which doesn’t bode well in a game where the margins are razor-thin. What does that mean here? It means not trying to overcomplicate things, and focusing your attention only on what’s needed. Go with the logical picks that favor the probabilities, and only go out on a limb for something you really feel is going to hit.
Something I’ve leaned away from in recent years is stats. There are just way too many variables at play: voter demographics, voter quantity, precursors influence, Academy rules, cultural sentiment, etc. It’s like debating if Magic Johnson or Steph Curry had a better NBA career. How can you compare two players who played in totally different eras and wildly different styles of play? Stats are helpful in some cases, but they should rarely be used as the primary justification for a prediction.
As a matter of transparency, I will not be predicting the three short categories: Live-Action Short, Animated Short, and Documentary Short. It’s a fool’s errand to try and provide analysis for a category where I’ve seen none of the contenders and has no precursors to guide the way. I’ll just be going with the GoldDerby consensus.
Without further ado, let’s get started!
