05/02/2025
Here's what's happening next week:
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
New Zealand Q1 Labour Market Data: Expected to show a slight unemployment rate increase to 5.2% and stable employment growth. Private wage growth likely slowed, supporting RBNZ's policy easing.
FOMC Decision (US): Federal Reserve expected to maintain rates at 4.25-4.50%, continuing a holding pattern due to uncertainty in government policy and economic data. Chair Powell likely to emphasize waiting for clarity, with no major changes to the statement.
NBP Decision (Poland): Polish central bank anticipated to cut rates by 50bp, the first since October 2023, with debate on whether this signals a one-off move or the start of an easing cycle.
CNB Decision (Czechia): Czech National Bank in fine-tuning mode, cautious about further easing. Updated macroeconomic forecasts to provide insight, with April CPI data influencing discussions.
Copom Decision (Brazil): Brazilian central bank expected to raise Selic rate by 50bp to 14.75%, slowing tightening pace from prior 100bp hikes, though a 25bp hike is possible.
Thursday, May 8, 2025
Riksbank Decision (Sweden): Rates expected to remain at 2.25%, with potential signaling for a future cut in June if downside growth risks materialize, influenced by US tariff uncertainty.
Norges Bank Decision (Norway): Policy rates likely unchanged at 4.50%, with no new signals expected at this interim decision. Inflation above 3% and stable labor market reduce dovish tilt.
BOE Decision (UK): Bank of England expected to cut rates by 25bp, with some speculation on a 50bp cut. Guidance likely to retain "restrictive" and "careful" but may drop "gradual" for flexibility.
BNM Decision (Malaysia): Bank Negara Malaysia likely to hold rates at 3.00%, supported by stable inflation (1.4-2.0% range) and no urgent need for cuts despite soft GDP and PMI data.
Friday, May 9, 2025
China April Trade Data: Exports likely positive but volatile due to tariff impacts and pre-tariff shipment rushes. Imports expected to rebound, signaling domestic economy improvement.
BCRP Decision (Peru): Peruvian central bank expected to pause easing, holding rates at 4.75% for the fourth meeting, though low inflation and weak growth keep a 25bp cut possible.
