28/10/2022
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 14
Severe Tropical Storm (NALGAE)
Issued at 2:00 AM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM today
“PAENG” REACHES SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CATEGORY AND IS NOW OFFSHORE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES.
Location of Center (1:00 AM): The center of Severe Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar over the coastal waters of Virac, Catanduanes (13.5°N, 124.2°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 130 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 590 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon
Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Libmanan, Cabusao, Magarao, Calabanga, Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Tigaon, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Saglay, Ocampo, Pili, Bombon, Naga City, Del Gallego, Canaman, Camaligan, Milaor, Gainza, Pamplona) and the extreme eastern portion of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan)
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, the rest of Camarines Sur, Marinduque, the rest of Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora), the central and southern portions of Nueva Ecija (City of Gapan, San Leonardo, Santo Domingo, Rizal, San Isidro, Laur, Zaragoza, Llanera, Aliaga, Palayan City, Gabaldon, General Mamerto Natividad, Cabanatuan City, Quezon, San Antonio, General Tinio, Santa Rosa, Pe, Jaen, Licab, Bongabon, Cabiao, Talavera), the central and southern portions of Tarlac (La Paz, City of Tarlac, San Jose, Gerona, Mayantoc, Pura, Bamban, Capas, Santa Ignacia, Victoria, Concepcion), Pampanga, Bataan, the central and southern portions of Zambales (Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, Subic, Olongapo City, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, San Felipe), the northern and central portions of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas), the northern and central portions of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands, and Romblon
Visayas
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Maslog, Can-Avid, Dolores), and the northern portion of Samar (Paranas, Motiong, City of Catbalogan, Tarangnan, San Jorge, Jiabong, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Pagsanghan, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
The central and southern portions of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, City of Santiago, Cordon, Echague, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Angadanan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, San Mateo, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Palanan, Aurora, Burgos, San Manuel, Gamu, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Roxas, Quirino, Mallig), Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Cervantes, Alilem, Suyo, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia), La Union, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Zambales, Pangasinan, the rest of Tarlac, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
Visayas
The rest of Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Siquijor, and the rest of Leyte
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, City of Tandag, Bayabas, Cagwait, San Miguel, Tago, Marihatag, San Agustin, Lianga, Barobo), Agusan del Norte, the northeastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat, Esperanza, City of Bayugan, Prosperidad), Camiguin, and Misamis Oriental
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Through this morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, Samar, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Metro Manila, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Aurora, Bulacan, Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, Northern Samar, Negros Oriental, Cebu, and the rest of CALABARZON and Eastern Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bataan, and the rest of Visayas.
• This morning through evening: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains possible over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains possible over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Romblon, the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Ilocos Region and the rest of Central Luzon, Bicol Region, and Visayas.
• This evening through tomorrow morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains possible over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, and Batangas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains possible over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Ilocos Region, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands.
• Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
Severe Winds
• Winds of at most storm-force strength may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds reaching reach gale-force strength are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Areas under Wind Signal No.1 may experience strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) throughout the passage of the tropical cyclone.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced by PAENG will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause inundation or flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Bicol Region, Marinduque, the eastern portion of Batangas, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Aurora, and the northern and western portions of Northern Samar. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #4 issued at 2:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and PAENG, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #11 issued at 5:00 PM yesterday.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Severe Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday across Luzon. On the forecast track the center of PAENG may make landfall in the vicinity of Albay-Camarines Sur area in the next 6 hours. Afterwards, it will traverse Bicol Peninsula until this noon before crossing the CALABARZON-Metro Manila area this early afternoon through evening. After emerging over Manila Bay, PAENG will briefly pass very close or over the Bataan Peninsula-southern Zambales area between this late evening and tomorrow early morning.
• Frictional effects associated with interaction with the Luzon landmass may result in weakening into a tropical storm within 24 hours, possibly earlier. However, PAENG may re-intensify into a severe tropical storm once it reaches the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 AM tomorrow.
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