Iron Talon

Iron Talon DOTA 2 is fun! Any concerns? Email me at [email protected]!

Valve what you are doing?🤣
05/09/2025

Valve what you are doing?🤣





Stop complaining let's now watch fu***ng TI!😍
04/09/2025

Stop complaining let's now watch fu***ng TI!😍





Your team vs the enemy team summarized!🤣
04/09/2025

Your team vs the enemy team summarized!🤣





Hey everyone,I ran 1,000,000+ simulations for TI14 Swiss, full predictions, probabilities & dark horse outcomes.I’ve bee...
03/09/2025

Hey everyone,

I ran 1,000,000+ simulations for TI14 Swiss, full predictions, probabilities & dark horse outcomes.

I’ve been working on a massive prediction project for The International 2025 (TI14) Swiss stage. Instead of just going off vibes or recent match results, I combined multiple approaches:

Monte Carlo simulations (1M+ runs)

Performance data (June–August 2025)

Elo + Glicko2 models

Expert heuristics

Upset potential

After crunching everything, I generated a summary card, plus raw data files with probabilities for every team (who’s more likely to 4-0, 4-1, drop to elimination, etc).

EDIT: Quick clarifications: the intro paragraph was AI-generated just for readability, since I don’t post on Reddit often, i just said to chat: please make me a body and title for my monte carlo predictions, but all simulations, probability matrices, and calculations were done with real match data and code. The Monte Carlo Swiss sims assign each team a probability distribution over final records (rows sum to 100%), and the “final picks” table is a single illustrative run, which is why Team Nemesis can show 2-3 despite their highest probability being 0-4 or 1-4. Early fast outputs used independent per-team estimates, so column sums may not match slot counts, but proper joint simulations enforce exact slot counts. Bottom-tier rows sometimes looked like “5 teams in bottom 3” due to showing all low-probability teams; the bracket itself respects the elimination slots. Expert heuristics and upset potential incorporate recent scrims, roster volatility, and H2H tendencies on top of Elo/MMR. Group constraints in rounds 1–4 slightly shift early probabilities, explaining SEA teams like Nemesis being more likely 1-4 than 0-4. For Tobi standing in for Tundra, the model uses base team Elo plus player delta plus a chemistry effect accounting for role fit, hero similarity, prep time, and overlap, producing a small Elo/MMR drag (~–10) that modestly lowers BO3 win chance; simulations capture variance across events.

u/Tight-Fold-7766





Gooner detected!🤣
03/09/2025

Gooner detected!🤣





02/09/2025

This Is Actually The Best Item In Dota 2!😱

Credits: yt/zzADRiANzz

Note: Are you a authorized personnel to request a removal of this video from our Dota 2 fan page? Don't hesitate to email us below!

Email: [email protected]





Why they always ban Pudge dude fountain hook is gone 12 years ago!🤣
02/09/2025

Why they always ban Pudge dude fountain hook is gone 12 years ago!🤣





REAL RANK OF CHINESE PLAYER PLAYING IN SEA!🤣 2 digit chinese rank is 10k mmr and they seep in into our 8k average games....
01/09/2025

REAL RANK OF CHINESE PLAYER PLAYING IN SEA!🤣

2 digit chinese rank is 10k mmr and they seep in into our 8k average games... Doesn't communicate, 1st pick cores, AFK after losing 1 team fight. Some nihao fine s**t!





Every cores favorite spot!🤣
01/09/2025

Every cores favorite spot!🤣





Santa Claus can't grant that wish!🤣
31/08/2025

Santa Claus can't grant that wish!🤣





I am inevitable...😍
31/08/2025

I am inevitable...😍





"GG DOTA IS DEAD?"Every week the same courtroom drama opens on Reddit: “people only watch for big prize pool,” a TI slid...
30/08/2025

"GG DOTA IS DEAD?"

Every week the same courtroom drama opens on Reddit: “people only watch for big prize pool,” a TI slide that dropped from $40M to about $2M, and a chart that wiggles a little and somehow equals “flatline.” Someone writes “Volvo is killing it.” Another says ranked is bad, behavior score doesn’t work, and “I miss True Sight (only watched 18/19).” There’s the guy who proudly shows a 1000 battle pass—then crosses it to 575—just to get a WR skin. Someone else calls two million “pocket change.” Karma farm complete.

But step away from the memes and open the client. The queue still pops. Five strangers load in instantly. Picks are chaos: double offlane, last-pick mid Pudge, position five with Midas. Mid dies twice and tips you anyway. Someone spams voice lines, someone buys Rapier at 25, and somehow your team stumbles into a perfect Roshan fight. You type “space created,” even though you were the space.

Yes, the prize pool is smaller. Yes, Deadlock just got five new heroes and we’re jealous. Ranked can be a headache and behavior score feels like a rumor your teammates tell themselves. But those things don’t decide if a game is alive; queues and games do. And the game still does the thing: it drags you from “one quick match” into “how is it 2 a.m.?”

So, is Dota dead? No. Online, it’s dramatic and grumpy. In-game, it’s noisy, messy, and very alive. Think less obituary, more pub match: lots of shouting, a few bad decisions, and a sudden teamfight that makes you forget the complaints until tomorrow’s meme thread starts again.

u/luckystarweeb





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