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18/05/2022

Some news sources have been known to skip crucial verification of facts or give inaccuracy in their stories to be first to print with a hot new lead. But, of course, a blazing stock tip quickly loses its sizzle if it’s incorrect or based on faulty analysis.
Let us help you navigate the noise and unreliable data and equip you with the most reliable, valued information you need to make informed well-timed decisions.

13/05/2022

Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Much attention will be given to the Fed's quantitative tightening plan, which it has already put on the agenda at its last meetings, in an environment where the 10-year Tnote is yielding more than 3%.
"We also believe that the quantitative tightening process could be activated as soon as today's meeting. The minutes of the last meeting indicate that quantitative tightening will be capped at $60 billion for Treasury bills and $35 billion dollars for mortgage-backed securities,” the IG strategist adds.
For Ellen Gaske, senior economist at PGIM Fixed Income, there could be “a relatively rapid rise in QT from June,” with the pace of Fed rate hikes slowing by the second half of this year, which should be accompanied by "convincing monthly inflation readings".
If inflation does not show signs of slowing with the tools deployed by the Fed, the "Volcker moment" will not arrive "until the end of this year or the beginning of next year", according to Mr. Gaske. By then, the economist explains, "the Fed will have had more time to assess the effects of the headwinds that are already building up, such as tighter financial conditions, tax reversals, higher energy and food, lagging wages and a slowing global economy".

11/05/2022

With the consumer price index at its highest level since December 1981 and strong upside risks stemming from the Ukrainian crisis and Chinese lockdowns, the main focus of the meeting will be "to limit the upside inflation and lay a solid foundation for monetary policy that does not, however, jeopardize the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has already been strained by countless factors," said Diodovitch.
According to IG, the level of US rates "will reach between 2.50% and 3% by the end of the year", while John Valis, currency and macro strategist at BNY Mellon, who does not not expect an increase of more than 50 basis points, said the Fed could use other tools and raise the overnight reserve rate (IRB) and the overnight repo rate (RRP). ) by 45 basis points, which “could reach the lowest fed funds range of 75 basis points”.

06/05/2022

“It is unlikely that the US central bank will be able to raise rates by 75 basis points at this time, at the risk of further weakening the national economy and therefore causing a possible technical recession,” writes in a note Filippo Diodovich, market strategist at IG Italia, referring to first quarter GDP data released last week (-1.4%).
Gergely Majoros, a member of Carmignac's Investment Committee, also said that "a Fed hawkish turn in the short term is unlikely", i.e. a 75 basis point rate hike, but the same is not true "in the long term because visibility on the future dynamics of inflation remains limited".

04/05/2022

The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision at 8:00 p.m. CEST on Wednesday, with Governor Jerome Powell holding his traditional in-person press conference for the first time since the pandemic began at 8:30 p.m. CEST.
According to market expectations, an increase in the fed funds range to a maximum target of 1%, from 0.25%-0.5% currently, seems remote, although some analysts do not exclude the possibility of a increase of 75 basis points given the latest data on consumer inflation (+8.5% YoY) and PCE (+5.2% YoY).

29/04/2022

Company results on the 29/04/2022

Apple: the group forecasts $4 to $8 billion in sales less due to Covid in the current quarter. The results for the past quarter are better than expected. The title lost 2.2% outside the session (but it gained 4.5% the day before).
Amazon: the results are disappointing. The title lost 9% off session.
AstraZeneca: Q1 earnings beat expectations and guidance confirmed.
BE Semiconductor: Q2 sales expected to grow despite tight supplies.
ENI: the oil company generated €3.27 billion in net profit in Q1, well above the consensus.
Intel: the action fell 4% after the session and the publication of mixed results and outlook.
NatWest: net profit jumped 41% in Q1.
Reckitt Benckiser: the group exceeded forecasts with strong organic growth of 5.6% after price increases.
Robinhood: the favorite broker of young Americans plunges 11% out of session after quarterly lower than expected.
Signify: Earnings grew faster than expected in Q1.

27/04/2022

Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley are four prominent U.S. banks that recently released their first-quarter results. This is how they accomplished it:

1)Goldman Sachs: The Wall Street firm outperformed expectations in terms of revenue and earnings. Goldman Sachs' stock increased by more than 2% in premarket trading.
2)Wells Fargo: The San Francisco-based bank's stock dropped after it missed revenue projections, owing to a drop in mortgage lending in the quarter. According to Refinitiv, Wells Fargo's earnings per share of 88 cents were higher than the analysts' expectations of 80 cents. 3)Citigroup: Exceeded revenue and profit expectations. Citi made $2.02 per share on $19.19 billion in revenue. The stock was up more than 3% in pre-market trading.
4)Morgan Stanley: The bank outperformed analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines, sending its stock up more than 2%. Trading revenue growth powered the outstanding quarterly results.

18/04/2022

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08/04/2022

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