01/05/2025
MARCH-APRIL TORNADO OUTLOOK VERIFICATION:
In early March, I created and posted a tornado activity outlook for the March-April timeframe. Using Climatological telleconnections, ocean sea surface temps, and my own long range synoptic forecast I came to the conclusion that a very active March and April were likely in the areas highlighted in red, above average tornado activity was likely in orange, and below average tornado activity was likely in blue. To verify the forecast, I overlayed tornado reports from March and April, and re-drew my forecast contours over the map. The lines of my redraw are not exact to the original map, but they are very close. The result is what you see on the first image.
This was one of, if not the best long range forecasts I have ever made. I highlighted the Midwest/Ohio valley and the Deep South as being at risk for large tornado outbreaks. Several high end severe outlooks and high end severe setups occurred in these areas.
Notably, I left out May and June from this outlook. This is because from March it is very hard to forecast tornado activity for these months. I will try to create a May and June forecast soon here, but graduation from college is coming up soon and it’s crunch time in my classes. I will be graduating from NIU with a meteorology degree in about a week or so.
Thank you for your continued support on this page. I am so happy to be able to supply accurate local forecasts to y’all. This page is so much fun to run, and has played a huge part in my growth as a meteorologist and a storm chaser. I will be partaking in a field campaign called ICECHIP to study hail and hail producing storms this spring and summer in the plains. Follow along by following the instagram page.