Konner's Weather - Northwest Iowa

28/04/2025

Monday, April 28 2025 11:25 AM | Monday Severe Threat

I just wanted to make a quick post to remind you all again of today's risk. I'll be out storm chasing, so I won't be able to post updates as the day goes on. Again, make sure to have ways to receive weather alerts today! Good pages to follow as well are US National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota US National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa.

Stay safe today!

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28/04/2025

Sunday, April 27, 2025 10:00 PM | MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CEILING, LOW FLOOR

Summary: Monday will be a very interesting severe risk, with an incredibly low floor (basically no storms at all) and an incredibly high ceiling (multiple long-track, strong tornadoes). Northwest Iowa could have a potentially higher risk.

Detailed Konner Thoughts: Sorry for the all caps title, but tomorrow is a day that it will be extremely important to be weather aware. Tomorrow has amazing severe weather parameters, with an environment supportive of very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially strong, long-track tornadoes.

However, storm development remains very uncertain. Despite highly favorable parameters for severe storms, weather models are struggling to have storms developing due to the way that winds are meeting along the front. It all get very technical, but basically, for severe weather, you generally want winds blowing together as when they meet, they can't go down so they go up, which causes air to rise and storms to develop. If that can't happen, tomorrow has the potential to basically produce nothing, especially further south.

So, one scenario is practically nothing in terms of storms or severe weather. Another scenario is development more along the cold front later in the evening into the night, with more of a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat. The most dangerous scenario would be isolated supercells developing anywhere from basically Minnesota to Oklahoma. If these isolated supercells can develop in the afternoon to evening hours, especially over Iowa and surrounding areas where the best environment is, then long track supercells would be a very realistic threat.

NOTE FOR NORTHWEST IOWA FOLKS: One interesting trend with weather models this evening has been an increase in weather models producing strong supercells with tornado potential over the northwest Iowa area tomorrow afternoon and evening. I'll be curious to see if this trend continues, but those of you who follow this page from Northwest Iowa should be especially aware of this tomorrow.

PLEASE have ways to receive weather alerts tomorrow! Any storms that do develop could rapidly become severe and move quickly.

Attached is the current SPC severe weather outlook. The red area is where the current highest confidence is for storm development, but I want to emphasize that if storms can develop really anywhere in the yellow or greater area (but especially within the orange/red area), they could become rather intense in a favorable environment. Stay safe!

26/04/2025

Saturday, April 26, 2025 8:15 AM | Below is a post from the NWS Des Moines regarding Monday's severe weather risk.

The potential for numerous strong to severe storms across Iowa is increasing, with the potential even existing for a tornado outbreak. Details need to be ironed out yet, but generally, the risk for numerous strong tornadoes appears greatest across the further south areas of the moderate risk (red, 4/5). The risk will likely be a bit lower further north, with more of a damaging wind threat, although details will need to be ironed out yet as Monday approaches.

Regardless, Monday will be a day to stay weather aware across Iowa. Make sure you have ways to receive warnings now and a plan to seek shelter come Monday should your area end up under the threat of damaging winds or a tornado. Stay safe, and enjoy the weekend!

***OUTDATED POST***

Monday Severe Storms Outlook - Severe Weather Outbreak Forecast

A Moderate Risk (4/5) of Severe Storms is now forecast for Monday over most of Iowa. A severe weather outbreak is forecast for Monday over Iowa and nearby states.
Strong tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds will be possible. The more intense storms are expected in the afternoon and evening.

Please plan ahead - review safety plans, shelter locations, and consider where you may be during the day Monday into Monday evening. If a tornado occurs near you, seconds count when getting to a safe place quickly.

24/04/2025

Thursday, April 24 6:15 PM | Severe storms becoming increasingly likely Monday, April 28

If you haven't already seen, there is an increasing risk of severe storms on Monday, with the risk currently centered over Iowa. All severe weather threats (large hail, damaging winds, tornado) appear possible. Details will become more clear as we get closer to Monday, but it is definitely something you should be aware of as we head into the weekend. In the meanwhile, enjoy the spring weather!

Attached is the current severe weather risk for Monday. The 15% and 30% probabilities indicated the risk for a severe storm within 25 miles of a given point.

17/04/2025

Thursday, April 17, 2025 11:15 AM | Scattered severe storms are expected across Iowa tonight. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop from Southern Minnesota through Iowa into Eastern Nebraska tonight. The risk of storms will be greatest from about 4 PM through about midnight, with the risk shifting east as the storms move east.

Supercells capable of producing very large hail is the biggest threat. These storms will likely be elevated (which limits tornado risk), although there is still some potential for a few isolated tornadoes. Some damaging wind gusts will also be possible.

Regarding the hail risk, the greatest threat will be in the area outlined in black in the hail risk graphic posted below (generally western into central Iowa). Within that area, there will be an increased risk for hail 2 inches or greater in diameter.

This afternoon and evening will be a good time to stay weather aware. Make sure to have a way to receive severe weather alerts, and stay safe! Attached are some various maps outlining the main risk areas for severe weather.

14/03/2025

Friday, March 14 11:50 AM | An intense weather system is expected to impact the area this weekend.

Today, storms are expected to push across Iowa from southwest to northeast from early/mid afternoon into the overnight hours. The main threat across Iowa will be strong winds, with potential for 60-100 mph wind gusts, especially further southeast in Iowa.

Large hail and tornadoes will also be possible, with the greatest threat further southeast.

A band of snow is expected to set up somewhere in the northwest Iowa vicinity as well tonight into tomorrow. The exact location remains uncertain, but there is potential for a band of 2''+ somewhere near northwest Iowa. Wherever heavier snow accumulations can occur, strong northwest winds will likely lead to blowing snow and even some blizzard conditions.

Make sure to have a way to receive weather warnings this afternoon into tomorrow! Attached is the latest storm prediction center severe weather outlook, as well as the current snowfall forecast and probability for 2''+ snowfall.

Stay safe!

13/03/2025

Thursday, March 13, 3:45 PM | Fire, storms, and snow!

A potent low pressure/storm system is expected to impact much of the country over the next few days.

Looking at Iowa specifically, warmer temperatures and gusty winds will lead to enhanced fire danger tomorrow, especially across southeast Iowa.

The warmer temperatures and the low pressure system will also lead to the development of storms, potentially severe. The greatest risk currently looks to be from about 3-10 pm. Storms will likely develop across the southwest half of the state and rapidly push northeast. Damaging winds (potentially significant) will be the main threat, as well as some potential for tornadoes and large hail (especially further southeast.)

Make sure to stay weather aware tomorrow and have ways to receive weather alerts, especially if you are outdoors enjoying the warmth!

Saturday, the low pressure system will bring in cooler temperatures and stronger winds from the northwest. Snow will also be possible, especially in far northwest Iowa. While amounts remain uncertain, they likely won't be too significant, with heavier amounts north and west. However, anywhere that is able to get any accumulations, strong winds could cause some blowing/drifting snow and even blizzard conditions anywhere that gets more significant accumulations. Currently though, I expect most of the northwest Iowa area will see only a dusting to an inch or two.

Continue to monitor the weather, especially tomorrow. Attached are some incredible graphics from the US National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa. Be sure to follow them to get updates tomorrow on the severe threat! Stay safe!

06/03/2025

Thursday, March 6 12:20 PM | Quick weather update!

The latest weather model runs continue to show a band of relatively high snowfall totals. The forecast has shifted a bit north as well from what was initially being shown this morning. Attached is a graphic from the NWS Sioux Falls with the latest probabilities for 6''+ tonight through tomorrow evening. Continue to follow the forecast for updates!

06/03/2025

Thursday, March 6 9:10 AM | Another round of wintry weather expected tonight into tomorrow.

A band of precipitation is expected to move into Iowa tonight and last through tomorrow, with precipitation possibly being all rain or mixed with rain early, transitioning to snow overnight, especially across central and Northern Iowa. A relatively narrow band of 3-6 inches is expected, with potential for locally higher amounts. Attached is the current snowfall forecast from the national weather service, as well as the current probabilities for 2+ inches and 6+ inches.

The good news is the winds are expected to be weaker with this system, so it WON'T be a repeat of the blizzard we just had thankfully! Temperatures are also expected to warm going into next week, which will hopefully melt away any snow we've gotten lately. Stay safe!

03/03/2025

Monday, March 3 11:10 AM | An impactful spring system is expected to impact Iowa from tonight into Wednesday. Rain is expected to overspread much of Iowa tonight into tomorrow, transitioning to snow from west to east Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.

Significant rainfall is expected across much of Iowa, which will be good for ongoing drought conditions. There could even be some thunderstorms. As cold air wraps in on the backside, rain is expected to transition to snow. The exact timing and the amount of dry air will have a significant impact on how much snow is able to fall.

Regardless of how much snow falls, blizzard conditions will be possible. Very strong northwest winds are expected across much of Iowa Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, with the potential for gusts of 40-60 mph, locally higher. Snow will end for much of the area by midday Wednesday, but depending how much snow falls, blizzard conditions could continue through Wednesday evening due to strong, gusty winds.

While details will continue to be ironed out over the next few days, the main point is that an impactful winter storms is expected to bring rain, thunderstorms, potentially heavy snow, very strong winds, and potentially blizzard conditions to much of the area.

Also, there will be potential for another system to impact parts of Iowa later this week - stay tuned. This will be a good week to stay weather aware!

14/02/2025

Friday, February 14 2025 3:15 PM | After this current round of snow pushes across Iowa today, another round is expected tonight into tomorrow. A relatively narrow band of heavy snow is expected to set up somewhere in Iowa. The exact location remains somewhat uncertain, but this is the current forecast from the national weather service. The relatively large ranges seen below is due to the uncertainty on the location of where the snow band sets up. Also, gusty northerly winds tomorrow could lead to continued blowing snow. There is also some potential for wintry mix or ice mixing in with snow at times. Stay weather aware, drive safe, and get ready for a very cold next week!

14/02/2025

Thursday, February 13, 2025 10:45 PM | Yet another wintry system is expected to impact Iowa Friday through Saturday. A quick burst of snow is expected to push through a decent portion of Iowa on Friday, bringing a quick inch or two for parts of Iowa, the greatest risk across central into northeast Iowa. Strong southerly winds will also lead to blowing snow potential throughout the day Friday.

A second round of snow is expected Friday night into Saturday night. The exact location remains uncertain, but this has the potential to drop a decent amount of snow across a rather narrow band, with lighter impacts elsewhere. Winds are expected to shift to north and increase in speed again Saturday into Sunday, leading to continued blowing snow.

Behind the snow, very cold air is expected to move into the region for much of the next week. Highs could be in the single digits above or below zero for much of Iowa from Sunday through possibly as late as Thursday, with lows dipping into the negative teens of even negative twenties, especially further north. Wind chills could easily dip below -30 overnight multiple nights next week.

This next week will be a good week to stay weather aware, both regarding snow this weekend and cold next week. Stay safe!!

Attached first are two graphics from the National Weather Service in Des Moines, indicating snowfall potential over Iowa. The third image is from the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls, looking more specifically at snowfall potential for the northwest Iowa area. The fourth image is an amazing graphic from the National Weather Service in Omaha highlighting just how much uncertainty remains on Saturday's snow band location.