22/06/2025
The Regime in Iran: Evolve or Die
| Polyblog Opinion | Dr Ramzi Abou Ismail.
As the dust settles over Iran’s bombed-out nuclear sites and fears of a wider war ripple through the region, the real choice facing the Islamic Republic will not be made in televised speeches or staged funerals. It will be made quietly through diplomatic backchannels, Gulf intermediaries, and regional alignments. The window for performative rhetoric is closing. What happens next depends not on what Iran threatens, but on whether it answers the U.S. invitation for negotiation.
And regardless of what Iranian officials say today, we are now facing two distinct and irreversible scenarios.
Scenario 1: The Evolutionary Pivot
Iran accepts the U.S. offer whether directly or through Oman, the UAE, or even Saudi Arabia, and enters a process of strategic recalibration. This isn’t just a return to the JCPOA. It’s a full redefinition of Iran’s regional role.
In this scenario, Iran retains its Islamic character but abandons the revolutionary ambition that once drove its foreign policy. It agrees to civilian nuclear limits, with strict oversight, and potentially through an outsourced process.
This Iran would be part of the new architecture of the Middle East, one increasingly defined by economic corridors, infrastructure deals, and strategic balancing between East and West. It could still have friends. It could even retain leverage. But it would do so within limits limits shaped not by ideology, but by its survival as a gatekeeper of U.S. interests vis-à-vis China.
Scenario 2: The Ideological Su***de
The second scenario is darker and more likely if the regime misreads the moment.
Here, Iran rejects the offer. Not because it has a better alternative, but because its identity is too deeply anchored in a mythology of resistance, empire, and revolutionary permanence. It mistakes defiance for strength. It mistakes survival for surrender.
This is where ideology becomes su***de.
By doubling down on its expansionist vision, the regime isolates itself further, accelerates its collapse, and invites chaos not just within its borders, but across the region. Hezbollah, already reeling from its defeat in the 2023–2024 Lebanon war and the November ceasefire, would be dragged down with it. Iranian militias would fragment. Internal unrest would grow. The economy would spiral. And a vacuum would emerge.
It’s a vacuum the U.S. does not want, but may be forced to manage. And if that chaos opens the door for China to insert itself more deeply into the heart of Iran’s collapse, so be it. From Washington’s perspective, managing Beijing later is preferable to allowing Tehran to hold onto its pre-strike position of unchecked regional influence.
The regime might believe the world fears its collapse. But overconfidence has been its most consistent strategic error. And one more miscalculation now could turn this from a confrontation into a disintegration.
Neither Scenario Depends on Iran’s Rhetoric
What matters in the coming days is not what Iran says in its media or even how it responds and where. It’s what it says through its emissaries. If quiet channels are activated through trusted Gulf intermediaries then Scenario 1 is in motion. If not, we begin the slow, painful march into Scenario 2.
As I’ve argued before, this war no matter which path Iran takes, or how long it unfolds is not the beginning of a new regional conflict. It is the end of one. An era of unchecked expansion and proxy dominance is closing.
