Meteorologist Kyle Noel

Meteorologist Kyle Noel B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences - University of North Carolina at Asheville (2017). M.S in GIS and Technology - NC State University (2023).

I like to post weather updates for family and friends with my free time.

**HISTORIC BREAKING NEWS**Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is on the verge of making a historic landfall in southwestern Jam...
10/28/2025

**HISTORIC BREAKING NEWS**

Category 5 Hurricane Melissa is on the verge of making a historic landfall in southwestern Jamaica within the next hour. It is poised to become the most intense Atlantic hurricane landfall on record (1851–2025) by both minimum central pressure and maximum sustained winds.

Current pressure: 892 mb — tied with Labor Day (1935) as the 3rd most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, behind Wilma (2005) and Gilbert (1988). Labor Day (1935) also holds the record for the most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricane by pressure (892 mb).

Maximum sustained winds: 185 mph — tied with Labor Day (1935), Gilbert (1988), Wilma (2005), and Dorian (2019) as the 2nd strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by wind speed. This also matches the strongest landfalling winds on record, currently shared by Labor Day (1935) and Dorian (2019).

Here's the table by central minimum pressure:

1. Wilma (2005): 882 millibars
2. Gilbert (1988): 888 millibars
T3. Labor Day (1935): 892 millibars -- ATLANTIC LANDFALL RECORD
T3. Melissa (2025): 892 millibars -- ATLANTIC LANDFALL RECORD
T5. Rita (2005): 895 millibars
T5. Milton (2024): 895 millibars
7. Allen (1980): 899 millibars
8. Camille (1969): 900 millibars
9. Katrina (2005): 902 millbars
T10. Mitch (1998): 905 millibars
T10. Dean (2007): 905 millibars

Here's the table by maximum sustained winds:

1. Allen (1980) - 190 mph
T2. Labor Day (1935) - 185 mph -- ATLANTIC LANDFALL RECORD
T2. Gilbert (1988) - 185 mph
T2. Wilma (2005) - 185 mph
T2. Dorian (2019) - 185 mph -- ATLANTIC LANDFALL RECORD
T2. Melissa (2025) - 185 mph -- ATLANTIC LANDFALL RECORD
T7. Mitch (1998) - 180 mph
T7. Rita (2005) - 180 mph
T7. Irma (2017) - 180 mph
T7. Milton (2024) - 180 mph

How powerful is Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm about to make a catastrophic landfall on Jamaica?175 mph maximum s...
10/28/2025

How powerful is Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm about to make a catastrophic landfall on Jamaica?

175 mph maximum sustained wind so far would make it the 10th strongest Atlantic hurricane on the record (1851-2025). Gusts are most likely up to 220 mph.

Minimum pressure so far is set at 901 millibars. This would make Melissa the 8th most intense Atlantic hurricane on the record (1851-2025). Here's the list:

1. Wilma (2005): 882 millibars
2. Gilbert (1988): 888 millibars
3. Labor Day (1935): 892 millibars
T4. Rita (2005): 895 millibars
T4. Milton (2024): 895 millibars
6. Allen (1980): 899 millibars
7. Camille (1969): 900 millibars
8. Melissa (2025): 901 millibars
9. Katrina (2025): 902 millbars
T10. Mitch (1998): 905 millibars
T10. Dean (2007): 905 millibars

National Hurricane Center's current forecast is for Hurricane Melissa to make a landfall on southwestern Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, most likely at 175 mph maximum wind speed. Jamaica has a long history of hurricanes, but this nation has never taken a direct hit from a Category 5 storm before. They've never seen anything like this in at least over a century and half. Hurricane Gilbert was the closest with a direct hit as a Category 3 in 1988... and Melissa is a mile above that. It will actually be one of most intense Atlantic hurricane landfalls, period.

I cannot state enough how catastrophic it will be for Jamaica. We are likely to see a major humanitarian crisis in upcoming days comparable to what Hurricane Maria was for Puerto Rico in 2017. We're talking about vegetation stripping wind, hectic tornado episodes, 30 to 50 inches of rain creating flash floods down valleys, and up to 15 feet of storm surge on southwestern fishing villages. It's a very bad situation, y'all.

Amid all the Tropical Depression Nine chatter, Hurricane Humberto quietly reached Category 5 strength with sustained win...
09/28/2025

Amid all the Tropical Depression Nine chatter, Hurricane Humberto quietly reached Category 5 strength with sustained winds of 160 mph.

This season has been unusual: we’ve now had one Category 4 hurricane and two Category 5 hurricanes... yet our traditional peak window (Aug 23–Sep 19) was completely shut out for the first time since the 1930s.

Another record: the 2024 and 2025 seasons mark the first back-to-back years with 2+ Category 5 hurricanes since 1932 and 1933 seasons. Humberto also became the 12th Category 5 hurricane in just the past nine years, which may set a new decadal record.

What makes Humberto even more remarkable is where it intensified. It reached Category 5 status in one of the furthest northeast locations ever recorded. The Southeast U.S. has been incredibly fortunate this season... nearly every hurricane in the southwestern Atlantic has exploded into a monster over abnormally warm waters. If not for a cooler atmospheric pattern over eastern North America, conditions could have easily favored more storms forming and steering inland over these soupy waters.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #5 (9/28/2025):At this point, the "out to the sea" scenario is about to fully win out o...
09/28/2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #5 (9/28/2025):

At this point, the "out to the sea" scenario is about to fully win out out of three possible solutions that I presented a couple updates ago. Tropical Depression Nine is moving way slower than expected, which is allowing the storm to miss the upper low capture that would've pulled it inland. Instead, it'll soon sense an opening to northeast and then follow Hurricane Humberto out to the sea. Rainfall totals have been slashed considerably as a result. This was always a sensitive steering pattern so it is unsurprising that a low confidence forecast shifted from one scenario to another. It happens.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #4 (9/27/2025):Well... overnight, we trended toward a much weaker upper low system that...
09/27/2025

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE UPDATE #4 (9/27/2025):

Well... overnight, we trended toward a much weaker upper low system that is currently over the Southeast US right now. This is resulting in a less "pulling" influence on PTC 9, which has been updated to become Tropical Depression 9 (TD 9). Hurricane Humberto, now a Category 4, has become a dominant steering influence on TD 9. Because of this, along with the slow strengthening, TD 9 is now expected to stall hard at about 100 miles offshore of the Carolinas before turning hard right while following Hurricane Humberto out to the sea. We will still see a major rain event, but it won't be a catastrophic flooding event on level of several big hurricanes in last 10 years. Definitely still need to worry about localized floods. I'll fill in more details later today.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE UPDATE #3 (9/26/2025):Invest 94L has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nin...
09/27/2025

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE UPDATE #3 (9/26/2025):

Invest 94L has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9). While it hasn’t yet reached tropical cyclone status, it has the potential to do so soon.

Why this terminology? It allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to begin issuing official forecast advisories before the system is formally classified as a tropical storm or hurricane. This step is especially important for systems that may bring impacts within just a few days. In this case, we’re only about four days away from potential effects in the Carolinas.

The NHC’s first advisory on PTC 9 takes a cautious but smart approach, balancing across the different scenarios I mentioned earlier. Their current track favors a middle-ground solution, with PTC 9 stalling just off the Charleston coast before either moving inland or curving back out to sea. On intensity, the forecast is also right in the middle. The NHC projects PTC 9 will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane with peak winds around 75 mph before weakening again. Still, it remains possible that the system could become a bit stronger than this outlook suggests.

The next 24 hours will be critical. I’ll provide another update in the morning.

INVEST 94L UPDATE #2 (9/26/2025):Okay y’all... I’m about to throw a lot of information your way, so stick with me. Bott...
09/26/2025

INVEST 94L UPDATE #2 (9/26/2025):

Okay y’all... I’m about to throw a lot of information your way, so stick with me. Bottom line up front: I do not believe Invest 94L (future Imelda) will become a powerful storm. There are too many atmospheric factors working against it as it drifts north-northwest over the Gulf Stream. As for the track, I think it’s far more uncertain than many other forecasts online are suggesting. There are just too many moving parts right now to lock anything down beyond the next 24–48 hours. However, I do worry about the flooding potential of 94L later on. I'll get to that.

Here’s what we know: The National Hurricane Center currently gives 94L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. If it does, the name will be Imelda. Right now it’s still a disorganized system north of Haiti and will take some time to pull itself together. The next 24–48 hours will be critical in determining its future strength.

Once 94L strengthens into a tropical cyclone, it will start to feel the pull of an upper low pressure system over the Southeast. That upper low is trapped between two high-pressure ridges, which helps steer the storm toward the upper low. Additionally, the existence of Hurricane Humberto to east will force 94L to take on a more western path while moving north-northwestward. As 94L approaches, it will run into moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear from the upper low. This shear will prevent the storm’s core from tightening and also drag in dry air from Florida, further disrupting development. Because of these factors, both wind shear and dry air will put a cap on how strong 94L (future Imelda) can get.

Most intensity guidance from both global and hurricane models agrees that the system will likely peak as a strong tropical storm or possibly a low-end Category 1 hurricane. Anything stronger can't be ruled out, but that is not looking very likely at this moment unless the development of 94L into a tropical cyclone is rapid over next 24 hours.

For a while, it looked like the models and their ensembles agreed that 94L would eventually move into the Carolinas. Now, I’m not so sure. As 94L gets closer, the steering pattern starts to break down with two high-pressure ridges pushing toward each other north of the storm. Because of this, models are splitting into three different scenarios.

The first (and most likely at about 50% chance) has 94L moving into the Carolinas and then hooking left into the mountains. This wouldn’t be anything like Helene, not even close, but it could bring moderate flooding to parts of the mountains, parts of the foothills, and some areas along the Piedmont of SC/NC. This concern is slightly elevated due to the incoming predecessor rain event of 1-2 inches for most of the Carolinas this weekend so 94L would be adding onto these rain totals.

The second (around 25% chance) has 94L stalling just offshore or right along the Carolina coast. Since we’re already expecting a predecessor rain event of 1–2 inches this weekend, I'll repeact again that adding 94L’s rainfall on top could create a much more serious flooding event along the coast and for inland areas along the I-95.

The third (also around 25% chance) has 94L stalling earlier, a couple hundred miles offshore, waiting for Hurricane Humberto to break down the high-pressure ridge near Bermuda. In this case, 94L would follow Humberto’s path and escape out to sea, greatly reducing impacts on the Carolinas. Some models are beginning to suggest this, even though it may sound unlikely.

So yeah. There you have it. Three different ways this could happen. Sorry it's not one clear answer right now... but that's what we have right now. It is worth noting that Weather Prediction Center (WPC) of NOAA is already going ahead with 7-day rain forecast of widespread 5-10 inches across both Carolinas. It seems like a given that we're going to see a lot of rain in most scenarios and that we should be ready for flash flood events breaking out across the Carolinas. I don't think we'll see widespread and historic levels of Matthew (2016), Florence (2018), or Helene (2024)... but it is likely we could see extreme hyperlocal flooding events like what Chantal (2025) did along Haw River and Eno River earlier this summer. The potential stall of 94L somewhere definitely has me nervous for that. Hopefully I'm wrong or that 94L will try to escape out to the sea... we'll see. Another update to come soon.

INVEST 94L UPDATE #1 (9/25/2025):Invest 94L is currently moving over the mountains of Hispaniola. However, with the "ce...
09/25/2025

INVEST 94L UPDATE #1 (9/25/2025):

Invest 94L is currently moving over the mountains of Hispaniola. However, with the "center" of disorganized Invest 94L moving off the island, our suite of models are now starting to reach a consensus. Most of this morning's model runs are in an agreement that the Carolinas are now looking at a direct impact from Invest 94L. There’s still some time for slight adjustments in the track so stay tuned. Intensity forecast remains a huge uncertainty and it's unfortunate because we're probably 4 to 5 days away from landfall. Everything from a robust tropical storm to a major hurricane is still on the table. I'm always suspicious of the Gulf Stream so we'll see how the intensification will go. It may not go. Models are still sorting that out and we need more data. Just keep an eye on this storm, y'all. Another update will come tonight.

Two tropical invests are being monitored in the Atlantic. Invest 93L in the east has a 90% chance of developing into a t...
09/24/2025

Two tropical invests are being monitored in the Atlantic. Invest 93L in the east has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical system within the next 7 days, while Invest 94L in the west has an 80% chance. Currently, 93L is close to becoming a storm (will be named Humberto at 5 pm ET) and is expected to gradually strengthen over the next few days. After that is when things get chaotic on models where even I don't know what to expect.

Most models indicate that Invest 93L (Humberto) will recurve northward in a few days, while also developing Invest 94L into a storm directly to its west. Not all models or ensemble members agree, but a majority do show development. Where they diverge is in what happens next... and for a good reason! It’s rare to see two tropical systems develop this close together with so little spacing. The American model (GFS) shows Invest 93L (Humberto) shearing apart Invest 94L, absorbing its energy, and then strengthening as it curves away from the U.S. mainland. The European model (ECMWF), however, depicts the two systems “dancing” around each other, with erratic tracks. Some ensemble members even take one of the systems inland into the Carolinas.

This interaction is known as the "Fujiwhara effect", named after the Japanese meteorologist who first observed binary interactions between Pacific typhoons. It is more commonly seen in the western Pacific, where storms have more room to interact. In the Atlantic, however, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a true Fujiwhara effect event. This often results in storms either merging into a single storm (GFS) or dacing around each other (ECMWF). In either case, we're about to see a rare meteorological phenomenon for the Atlantic Ocean. We just need more time to see how models play out the Fujiwhara effect and to nail down our final tracks.

EDIT: It's probably worth noting that neither storms get absurbly strong in either Fujiwhara scenarios. It will not be like movies where two storms interacting with each other turn into one super hurricane... I promise :)

20 years ago, on this day, Hurricane Katrina reached peak intensity of 175 mph maximum sustained wind and minimum atmosp...
08/28/2025

20 years ago, on this day, Hurricane Katrina reached peak intensity of 175 mph maximum sustained wind and minimum atmospheric pressure of 902 mb. New Orleans was right in front of an approaching Category 5 hurricane. Mass evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people was under the way. Most of that population never came back home and, eventually, decided to stay in cities they evacuated to.

It was also on this day when the National Weather Service in New Orleans wrote that famous "doomsday" weather forecast discussion, predicting a catastrophic humanitarian crisis for Louisiana and Mississippi. It was surreal following along with all of this on the Weather Channel when I was just ten years old. I still remember sharing my daily updates on Katrina with my deaf classmates as part of our "current events" discussions first thing each morning.

A cold front is pushing through this afternoon. The result? Tomorrow should be gorgeous and sunny, with highs in the upp...
08/25/2025

A cold front is pushing through this afternoon. The result? Tomorrow should be gorgeous and sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. More importantly, dew points will stay in the 50s across North Carolina and the upper 50s to low 60s in South Carolina. Only the immediate coastline will hang onto summer-like conditions, but even there it will feel nice. Gorgeous weather should continue over the next few days. It's not quite yet fall weather, but it does signal the end of our peak summer humidity.

On a bright side, if you're getting sick of the heat and the humidity, there's a huge relief on the way with multiple co...
08/20/2025

On a bright side, if you're getting sick of the heat and the humidity, there's a huge relief on the way with multiple cold front passages during next week and into early September. There will be multiple days of perfect weather with high temperatures in 70s and low temperatures in 50s with the humidity feeling very comfortable. Higher elevation areas will get their first hint of chilly weather, even. I'm a huge lover of autumn seasons so I'm really looking forward to this one!

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Thank you for liking my page! A bit about myself... I’m a current meteorologist working for Athenium Analytics out of my home in Raleigh, NC area. My main job is to verify weather data for insurance claims, but I also write hurricane forecast bulletins to our clients. At nights, I’m a graduate student working on GIS courses at North Carolina State University. When my life isn’t busy, I like to write weather updates for family and friends with my free time. Glad to have you aboard!

Education:

Graduate certificate in GIS - North Carolina State University (December 2020)

Bachelor of Science in Atmospheric Sciences - University of North Carolina at Asheville (May 2017)