OXI: east-med pipeline. Greek Catastrophe 2.0

06/04/2025

Türkiye: Ankara Reacts to the Greece-Cyprus-Israel Electrical Cable

Ankara is reacting strongly to the activities of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel concerning the undersea electrical cable, according to Turkish security sources who spoke to the pro-government newspaper Türkiye. "Such faits accomplis will certainly not be permitted," the Turkish security sources stated....

01/04/2025

20/12/2024

Libya – The Russians are coming
The government in Tripoli, which in fact controls only half of Libya, has announced that it will not allow the redeployment of Russian forces and weapons that, after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, remained in the Tartus and Hmeimim bases. It is not entirely clear whether Moscow will even need to launch such an operation, as behind-the-scenes negotiations on the fate of the two military bases are reportedly underway. All options are in play, while the Russians are slowly transferring almost all serious weapons to the runways and docks.

20/12/2024

NEW | Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate and withdraw some of its forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Image 4: ) 🧵⬇️

18/12/2024

US monitors possible Russian movements in Libya - itamilradar

While the Russian fleet remains anchored off the coast of Tartus, a second hypothesis is emerging regarding the potential destination of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean if Syria is abandoned.

If in the first case we are talking about Libyan Tobruk (which, however, does not have the necessary infrastructure to support Russian ships), then the second option is Libyan Benghazi. The capital of the Cyrenaica region has a well-equipped port capable of receiving Russian ships, and the region also has airports that can provide supplies from the homeland.

Just a few days ago, several Russian Il-76 aircraft reportedly landed at an airbase near Benghazi that was previously used to supply Russian troops (officially designated as the former Wagner Group) stationed in Libya.

18/12/2024

Russia may establish a powerful “no-access zone” in North Africa, and if necessary may also “close” the airspace over the central part of the Mediterranean.

Russia has transferred to Libya the S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, capable of “closing” the airspace at a range of up to 400 km.

- Wall Street Journal

13/12/2024

Russia will likely turn to Libya to replace its Syrian bases or mitigate its reliance on its Syrian bases in the Mediterranean & Africa even if it retains its Syrian bases.

The Kremlin faces political obstacles that make Russia’s long-term position in Libya vulnerable..

Libya is crucially the only country with a significant Russian military presence in Africa that Russian cargo planes can directly reach from Russia without refueling. Heavier cargo planes can reach Libya only by flying over Turkish airspace.

The Kremlin already increased Libya’s role as an operational hub for its various Africa Corps deployments in sub-Saharan Africa throughout 2024. These newly upgraded military facilities in Libya could handle some Russian logistics traffic that previously went through Syria.

The Kremlin has also sought an agreement for permanent Russian docking rights at Tobruk since 2023. A Russian naval base at Tobruk would fill similar logistical and strategic roles as Russia's base at Tartus, Syria.

Russia’s position in Libya is dependent on Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, who controls the eastern half of Libya in Libya's stalemated civil war. This fact makes any Russian basing in Libya vulnerable to the same jeopardy as its Syria bases if Haftar’s regime collapsed.

The United States has increased outreach to Haftar in recent years and pressed him to reduce his ties with Russia. US officials specifically warned Haftar against accepting a Russian naval base during these discussions.

Read this week's Africa File, which discusses the current status of Russia's Syrian bases and Russia's potential pivot options in Libya and Sudan: criticalthreats.org/analysis/afric…

30/08/2024

🚨Update: “We risk becoming Europe's refugee camp, we risk becoming the laughing stock of the world! We need a naval blockade in Libya and to start sinking NGO ships!”

- Italian PM Georgia Meloni.

26/08/2024

🚨OIL PRICES JUMP NEARLY 3% AMID LIBYAN PRODUCTION HALT AND MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

This comes after reports of a near-total production stoppage in Libya and escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude rose to $81.32 a barrel, its highest in 11 days, while U.S. crude reached $77.05.

Libya's eastern government halted all oil production and exports, raising concerns over further disruptions.

The rise in oil prices also followed heightened geopolitical tensions after clashes between Hezbollah and Israel, with fears of a broader conflict impacting regional oil supplies.

Source: Reuters

14/12/2023

Why the US needs this war in Gaza
Washington needs to win its Gazan war against Iran because it failed to win its Ukrainian war against Russia.

Washington needs to win its Gazan war against Iran because it failed to win its Ukrainian war against Russia.