Art of War

18/07/2025

IV. Tactical Dispositions

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.

5. Security against defeat implies defensive tactics; ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive.

6. Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient strength; attacking, a superabundance of strength.

7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete.

***

Politics consists in gaining and using power for your own ends.

Political strategy consists in winning (and holding) the ground that truly can be won.

It needs to be ground that gives you more power than you had before (so that you can go on gaining more).

If you are not thinking like that, then you are probably treating politics like a trip to the grocery store, rather than the war that it is.

And you are going to get destroyed.

The way to win a war:

1) Identify the ground that is the heart of the enemy’s power.

2) Seize it. Put it under your control. Deprive your enemy of the ability to expand. Persuade him that he cannot win. Make him lose the will to fight.

You do this by first protecting yourself from catastrophic loss and only then finding the right moment to capitalize on your enemy’s weaknesses.

13/07/2025

12/07/2025

This quote from Xenophon is superb:

//We will declare war without parley on the Persians—no more thoughts of bargaining or debate.

We will waste no more time on argument or accusation among ourselves; every ounce of our energy will be spent on the Persians.

We will be as inventive and inspired as our ancestors at Marathon, who fought off a vastly larger Persian army.

We will burn our wagons, live off the land, move fast.

We will not for one second lay down our arms or forget the dangers around us.

It is us or them, life or death, good or evil.

Should any man try to confuse us with clever talk or with vague ideas of appeasement, we will declare him too stupid and cowardly to be on our side and we will drive him away.

Let the Persians make us merciless.

We must be consumed with one idea: getting home alive.//

***

The above is my disposition toward the Leftists and those not willing to shun Leftists.

They are too stupid or cowardly to be on our side.

We will not for one second forget the dangers around us.

07/07/2025

😆

06/07/2025

Sun Tzu 13:27b:

Spies are a most important element in war, because on them depends an army's ability to move.

***

To know what to do, the general must know what his opponent is doing.

Recall one of Sun Tzu first teachings:

“As circumstances are favorable, one should modify one's plans.”

And recall this line from toward the end of the book:

“Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the enemy's purpose.”

As an intellectual activist, you will not be employing spies of the kind that Sun Tzu has in mind, but you should still remember the importance of knowing the circumstances, collecting information, and understanding the mind of your opponent.

As Sun Tzu put it:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

05/07/2025

Sun Tzu 3.8-10, 17-18

This is a key section within The Art of War.

We see the way that Sun Tzu calculates which battles to fight (and how to fight them) and which to avoid (and how to avoid them).

Sun Tzu takes various factors into account, including the sizes of the armies and their fighting qualities.

Later, Sun Tzu will explain what to do when other factors enter the picture, such as special considerations around geography, weather, or alliances.

Here, he lays out the basic considerations that show how and when to maneuver your own army and how to decide the time of contact with the opposing army.

***

8. It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten to the enemy’s one, to surround him; if five to one, to attack him; if twice as numerous, to divide our army into two.

9. If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.

10. Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force.

17. Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory: (1) He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. (2) He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces. (3) He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks. (4) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared. (5) He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.

18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

***

Line 18 is one of Sun Tzu’s most memorable statements.

In his way of looking at things, “knowing yourself,” is not a vague, spiritual aspiration. It is a matter that is definable and discrete.

Sun Tzu treats matters of war as being within the realm of certainty to the general who knows how to conduct precise logical and mathematical calculations.

For Sun Tzu, war becomes a matter of careful administration of the general’s tasks, including reconnaissance, logistics, preparation and training, and strategic calculation.

Within the context of persuasion and public speech, similar principles apply.

Know the facts of the topic at hand.

Know your own abilities.

Know your audience.

Pay attention to the difference between which broad types of rhetorical battles you are able to win vs. which you cannot win.

Carefully list out the specific topics within a broader debate that favor you and ought to be maximized upon vs. which topics favor the opponent and ought to be mitigated against.

This article offers a framework for deciding what your goal might be when you are attempting to influence different kinds of people:

https://reasoninview.wordpress.com/understanding-your-influence-the-progressor-model/

If you want to have more influence, then surround yourself with people who are capable of being influenced.

See this article for more information about that idea:

https://www.codylibolt.com/2017/09/persuasive/

You can consider 3.8-9 in the context of social media discussions.

//8. It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten to the enemy’s one, to surround him; if five to one, to attack him; if twice as numerous, to divide our army into two.

9. If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.//

On social media, you get to decide what topics to discuss and who to discuss them with.

Depending on the mood of the cultural moment (which changes year to year, month to month, and even news cycle to news cycle), you may find that some of your writing topics have more interest and more persuasive power than others.

Capitalize on the changing situations.

If you have the ability to convince more people of Topic X today, per effort spent, then put your effort toward Topic X today.

Another day will present another opportunity.

Consider whether you have allies.

-One man shouting against the world is a lunatic.
-Two are a brotherhood.
-Three are a social movement.

What are the topics on which you will reliably find allies who will come to your aid and help legitimize your message?

Numbers ultimately do matter:

10. Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force.

By maneuvering his army, Sun Tzu avoided situations in which he was likely to lose and capitalized upon opportunities in which he was sure to win.

“Maneuvering” in the context of public debates means being mindful about the topics you address and the frame of the discussion itself.

You do not have to fight on every hill. Find the hills that present the best opportunities.

“He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”

“He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.”

05/07/2025

Q: When you write on controversial political and religious topics, how do you weigh allowing unethical things to slide vs. playing the role of a "whistleblower"?

A: My rule about that is:

When I see something, say something.

But only say it publicly if the information is public or in extraordinary situations, such as if lives are at stake or if the cost to my conscience would be higher if I stayed silent.

If you are privy to inside knowledge about evil doings, one of your priorities needs to be to find a way to make that information public without damaging yourself.

You can do that in various ways.

One way is to report on what is known publicly in such a way that the wrongdoer feels he has to issue a statement of some kind. That statement will often be sloppy and lead to further scrutiny from others.

Another approach is to publicly ask questions of the wrongdoer, even though you already know many of the answers. Ask the questions in such a way as to not reveal private information, but also in such a way as to set the other person up to have to either reveal what he has been doing or appear to be evading.

Sun Tzu said:

//The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.//

If you spend your relational capital or lose your reputation, you cannot fight anymore.

I sometimes discuss this issue with the friends of mine who are discernment writers.

It is not simple.

Our major complaint about some evangelical “star” pastors is that they are routinely choosing to do what builds and preserves their visible kingdom on earth over what advances the kingdom of heaven.

We think they ought to spend more of their “relational capital.”

For instance, they ought to not invite certain people to speak at their conferences, even if that makes some other stars mad at them.

At the same time, it is not advisable to always say everything we think is true about everything, whenever we feel like it.

That is a topic I'm trying to figure out as I try to gain wisdom and not fall into two different kinds of errors.

Awhile back, a friend told me about the second error. He warned me: Becoming known for being polemical can put you in a box.

You have to count the cost based on your specific situation and aspirations.

In my own case, I simply do not care to be liked by people I don’t respect.

And I respect few people.

“But the Lord God helps me; therefore I have not been disgraced; therefore I have set my face like a flint, and I know that I shall not be put to shame” (Isaiah 50:7).

02/07/2025

Sun Tzu 13:15-18:

15. Spies cannot be usefully employed without a certain intuitive sagacity.

16. They cannot be properly managed without benevolence and straightforwardness.

17. Without subtle ingenuity of mind, one cannot make certain of the truth of their reports.

18. Be subtle! be subtle! and use your spies for every kind of business.

***

Sun Tzu acknowledges the unique challenge of working with spies.

The man who knows how to deal with soldiers may find spies to be a different sort of challenge.

For the intellectual activist, Sun Tzu’s general advice applies:

Be benevolent toward people.

Be straightforward about what is on your mind.

Be cautious in deciding how much to believe.

Carefully assess the people you deal with.

Develop excellence through deliberate practice.

01/07/2025

Sun Tzu 13:6-13:

6. Knowledge of the enemy's dispositions can only be obtained from other men.

7. Hence the use of spies, of whom there are five classes: (1) Local spies; (2) inward spies; (3) converted spies; (4) doomed spies; (5) surviving spies.

8. When these five kinds of spy are all at work, none can discover the secret system. This is called "divine manipulation of the threads." It is the sovereign's most precious faculty.

9. Having local spies means employing the services of the inhabitants of a district.

10. Having inward spies, making use of officials of the enemy.

11. Having converted spies, getting hold of the enemy's spies and using them for our own purposes.

12. Having doomed spies, doing certain things openly for purposes of deception, and allowing our spies to know of them and report them to the enemy.

13. Surviving spies, finally, are those who bring back news from the enemy's camp.

***

When Sun Tzu talks about using spies, it’s clear he has experience.

He understands the differing types.

He does not go into great detail about how to recruit spies or how to motivate them, but he outlines some principles.

Does this taxonomy of spies have an application to the task of debate and polemics?

Spying goes outside of the normal range of honorable behavior among people who are not at war with each other.

There are special moral considerations in war and in war-like situations (such as national defense).

In the context of the work of a writer or debater who is on the side of truth, it will not be useful to deceive people about your intentions or beliefs.

Nevertheless, there are some analogies to the case of spies. You need information about the opposing force. You need to understand the intellectual landscape.

Local Spies:

Instead of hiring local spies, you can simply get to know people who are part of the fanbase of your intellectual opponents. This practice can save you a lot of embarrassment and poor positioning later down the road. It will help you know what your opponent and his fans believe and what their concerns are. Also, if the fans respect you, they might share important news and context with you.

Inward Spies:

If you know someone who works for your intellectual opponent, this can make it easier to figure out where your opponent will be making appearances. And it can make it easier to open communication with that opponent when necessary. It is helpful to have a pre-existing rapport with an opponent and to be a known entity to him when you decide to go on the offensive.

Converted Spies:

Generally, it is not ethical (or necessary) to send someone to spy on your intellectual opponent. But the opponent will sometimes try to send people to spy on you. (Or he might do the spying himself, keeping his intentions obscure.) When this happens, find out what your opponent wants and what his concerns are. In your own mind, identify the spy as an untrustworthy person. But do not burn the bridge unless the situation absolutely demands it. An open channel of communication is almost always a help in intellectual battles, not a hindrance.

Doomed Spies:

This type of spy doesn’t have an analogy in normal intellectual battles. The doomed spy is one sent deceptively into the opposing camp to spread a mixture of true and false information, therefore confounding the enemy’s intelligence process. There is no need for such spies in a non-war situation.

Surviving Spies:

In war, a surviving spy would typically be a double-agent or someone otherwise recruited from the opposing side and enticed with large sums of money.

This last kind of spy doesn’t have a direct analogy for intellectual activists (not for those who are morally upright).

But there could be a weak analogy in the case when someone voluntarily defects from the opponent’s camp and decides to help you. Within limits, there can be ethical ways for a defector to share some of what he knows about the views, actions, and, importantly, the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing camp, and especially its alliances.

For instance, he can point you to publicly available information that you may not have been aware of.

And he can simply tell you details that are unknown to you but not particularly private or confidential.

Most of the information you gather about your intellectual opponents will not be from surviving spies.

Most of your information will be right in front of your eyes as you look at what your opponent is publishing.

It does help to have an intelligence network of others who care about what your opponent is doing.

They will make sure that you are aware of key developments.