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Intelligence Quarterly Up to date news and analysis around the world.

Our experts compile the top stories from the US, EU, and Asian-Pacific regions giving you the intelligence you need to make decisions in your daily life.

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24/04/2022

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Free Weekly Newsletter April 24th, 2022 A free look at some brief thoughts about the week ahead, along with highlights from the past week’s subscription issues of Ahead of the Herd. Normally, I start off with the upcoming data releases globally for a look at the week ahead. However, this week, giv...

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22/04/2022

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An ominous feature of yesterday’s S&P 500 price action? Here’s a fun fact for you: yesterday, S&P futures traded above and below each of the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The cash index came within a whisker of accomplishing the same feat, missing out as the high of the day (4512.94) w...

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22/04/2022

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Since February 24, the start of the war in Ukraine, relations between Russia and Japan have deteriorated. This is because the war opened old wounds, as the two countries are technically still at war (see ‘A ghost from the past’ for more). In fact, one of the consequences has been a breakdown in ...

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22/04/2022

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What to make of the uncertainty of the ECB? We look into a viable base-case that takes more than just short-term inflation into account. In light of upcoming CB policy decisions, we discuss stagflation risks as consumer sentiment drops off a cliff as well as just-released composite PMIs that are far...

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22/04/2022

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The big news of the day is Japan’s core inflation data, which shows a trend upwards (with the devil lying in the details). Inflation is also a key theme in other countries, like Sri Lanka (covered on more than one occasion due to its crisis) and China, which is currently plagued by severe supply c...

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21/04/2022

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Russian oil output is down 10% from its pre-war level – the oil price will rise again The Kremlin is doing its best to conceal the full impact of formal and informal energy sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine. But Moscow can’t hide from thesatellites above Siberia that measure the amount of ...

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21/04/2022

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Yesterday, on April 20, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to his Chinese counterpart, General Wei Fenghe, for the first time since the inauguration. This in of itself is quite surprising, considering that diplomacy is de facto run by the US military in the Pacific and considering the many po...

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21/04/2022

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Once again the running theme is the balance between growth and inflation, with all the policymakers being forced into this particular dilemma. Speaking of inflation, New Zealand released its CPI, hitting a 30-year high. With regards to growth, news of particular importance is Xi Jinping once again r...

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21/04/2022

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We start today with a discussion of recent ECB comments that may hint at faster-than-expected rate hikes. We look at the implications and dive into the just-released De Guindos interview. In the UK, Johnson is looking to close a trade deal with India, which could be tricky given ongoing geopolitical...

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20/04/2022

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The impact of the weak Yen on US 10-year yields As the following chart shows, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been operating with yield curve control since September 2016. The current iteration is targeting the 10-year JGB yield at 0% with a 25- basis point band/range (gray shade). The blue line is the....

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20/04/2022

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Back on March 29, we covered the story of a new security deal between China and the Solomon Islands, which was just confirmed by President Sogavare at the time (see ‘The Pacific influence war‘ for more). The prospect caused quite a reaction from Australia and New Zealand, which immediately criti...

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20/04/2022

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There are several running themes today, but the most important revolves around the IMF and its recent forecast about the various economies. Overall, there are signs of slowdowns and several other pieces of news hint at that, although there are indeed exceptions like Australia. CENTRAL BANKS 1.1 Like...

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20/04/2022

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We’re starting today’s newsletter with an article on unrealistic theories and the difficulty in predicting economic developments in the current environment. Tied to this, we highlight the pressure on the ECB to hike rates as well as stagflation risks outlined by the new IMF forecast. We also foc...

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19/04/2022

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Not since Richard Nixon have we seen the Yen trend like this New highs are the order of the day, though of course I am not talking about the equity market. USD/JPY has continued to motor and has clearly reached the threshold where it is doing more harm than good, judging by the comments from Finance...

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19/04/2022

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Even *if* inflation isn’t getting worse, it’s likely to remain persistent at elevated levels. One reason is the fact that food inflation is here to stay due to broken supply chains in key growing nations and high fertiliser prices. In light of these developments, we list four reasons that point ...

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19/04/2022

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Back on April 7, we mentioned a few pieces of news regarding Japan and its immediate neighbour, South Korea. Specifically, we talked about the possibility of improved relations between these two key US allies, despite their troubled past. Something seems to be moving towards this direction, as Tokyo...

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19/04/2022

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The main theme of the day is the ‘rocketing inflation’, as the RBI stated. While there are no two countries with comparable inflation rates, most of them have been facing high inflation. One of the few exceptions is Japan, which has been facing the issue of low inflation and whose central bank h...

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18/04/2022

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How much confidence should we have in Powell’s Fed? Eleven million unfilled jobs. Still-strong consumer balance sheets. Inventory of unsold houses so low that bidding wars break out as FOMO (fear of missing out) spreads. Rising wages and plentiful jobs drive up consumer sentiment by the largest am...

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