Dreams to Reality (2025)

07/12/2024

The Koh Tao/100k SEK week correlation continues!Palantir Technologies continues its surge reaching a staggering 360% YTD.

The portfolio loosely employs an adjusted Talebian barbell strategy approach. The strategy involves a portfolio composition of hyper conservative (Treasury bonds) and hyper aggressive (venture capital) investments allocated in a Pareto distribution.

This approach conserves the majority of the portfolio to rise with market returns whilst exposing a small percentage to tail events and exponential upside. Venture capital (at its core) is a process of throwing a hundred darts with the majority missing the mark. The few however that hit, recoup all the losses and then some(at exit) once a company IPO’s in the public markets.

There are avenues into the primary markets available for retail investors, however, the portfolio uses leveraged instruments on public companies instead. This week the leveraged certificate on Palantir Technologies moved the needle for the portfolio.

The use of a daily leveraged certificate (as opposed to various other sophisticated instruments) caps the potential for loss of only the principal amount exposed. Essentially, the portfolio sprinkles a negligible amount of capital across a plethora of different companies. The idea is that most ‘bets’ will miss the mark. The process will however, capture the outliers at the other end of the tail of distribution.

10/11/2024

The markets are surging after a change in leadership in the biggest economy in the world. The expectation is that a Republican led government will draft polices that are more conducive to business. Trillions of dollars have poured back into the equity markets after the announcement of Trump’s triumph. The initial surge due to change in sentiment has to abate.

The elephant in the room is inflation. The Federal Reserve has exhausted the best part of 4 years in its attempt to reign in inflation. The Fed accelerated interest rates at a velocity, and over a period of time not seen since the Volcker led Fed. A deregulation of the business landscape will inevitably lead back to the issue of taming said inflation.

Irrespective of the future conjecture of where a change of leadership might take us, I remain invested in the markets. In the long run, short term gyrations due to administration change, policy change, conflict etc plays second fiddle to time in the market.

09/11/2024

Mid-week saw a change of government in the US, with the markets moving upwards a day prior to the announcement with anticipation of a Republican presidential victory. The following day the markets surged with the news of the outcome and thus the tide lifted all boats on all fronts.

This single day return has been the biggest this year for the portfolio with it rising further to 136000 SEK at market close. The thrust of the move has been the core positions that I’ve held onto and have allowed to expand.

Exxon Mobil has been a position that I’ve held onto since 2020. Against the backdrop of hysterical lauding of renewable alternatives, I built a substantial position and disregarded everybody else’s insistence to sell.

Nvidia and Apple are positions that I had conviction on in later stages of 2022 when everyone was terrified of the markets and tech stocks in particular.

The portfolio has returned 116% YTD and what should be evident is that there has not been excessive speculation used to garner the returns. Exxon, Apple and Nvidia are household name stocks. There’s been no speculation in obscure ‘penny stocks’ nor does the portfolio contain exotic positions like an alternative currency or a jpeg depiction (NFT). Neither was there any use of highly leveraged sophisticated vehicles like stock options. No sexy trading from a computer with multiple screens, flashing lights, trading signals and the like was implemented.

Contrary to the false impressions of retail investors, it suffices to invest in a manner which is predictable, mundane, and yet daring. Avoid the noise, think rigorously about the decision, use as less data points as needed, act boldly, execute aggressively, and then do nothing. Time is the ally.

05/10/2024

There’s something about being in a tropical environment like Koh Tao that invigorates clarity in thought. Perhaps it’s the relaxed atmosphere, the fresh sea breeze, the calming sound of the waves or all the above. Departed from the noise and clutter that’s induced in everyday life, your thoughts are allowed to wander uninterrupted and explore the implications of certain circumstances. The quality of decision making isn’t impaired as it would be otherwise.

Military engagement early in the week jolted the markets downwards, the uncertainty of military retaliation and escalation spiked the price of oil in the opposite direction, with concerns surrounding disruption of supply.

The portfolio had accrued a sizable oil position in Exxon Mobil in 2020, however on the last 6 months I’ve begun to scale down the position, diverting resources from the oil gains into other investments.

Despite the uncertainty the markets rallied to end the week buoyant with the S&P 500 clamoring back to near all time highs. We observe the ebb and flow, responding to situations as opposed to reacting to them. Avoid the noise and stay the course.

14/09/2024

The correlation between returning 100k SEK for the week whilst being on the Thailand island of Koh Tao continues! These past months have seen world markets plummet, this portfolio has followed in line plunging from 90% returns for the year.

The majority of the upward move is attributed to the position on Nvidia. In the past week Nvidia has surged 13% and close to 150% YTD. In the downturn no more was added to the position, there was however a significant increase to an existing position.

A turbulent ride is expected to close out the year with it being a US presidential election year. We’ll welcome a panic response and continue to add if and every time the opportunity arises.

17/08/2024

It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the markets, higher than expected unemployment claims figures in the US were released at the start of the month which precipitated the market sell off. The release of economic numbers in the US drastically sways sentiment with institutional money preempting FED monetary policy. With a select few technology sector companies continuing to soar this year even after a robust 2023, coupled with a weakening labour force insinuating a recession, perhaps institutional money decided to take some action of the table.

Consensus expectations for unemployment claims were 236k, the resulting number missed by 13k, coming in at 249k unemployment claims lodged for the week prior. The markets in the US alone sold off in excess of 5 trillion USD, which reverberated around the world compounding this number.

The ludicrousness of this overreaction is unbelievable. There are 133 million registered employed in the labour force in the US, a 13k difference amounts to 0.009% change to that metric. Yet trillions of dollars sold off in panic.

Being contrarian, many positions were added to the portfolio during the sell off. Be greedy when others are fearful. The past week the markets have surged nearly recouping the drawdown incurred since the start of the month.

An erudite which I implore everyone to familiarize with is Nassim Taleb. His books and articles provoke. An insight he promotes (amongst many) is to forget the immediate noise, ignore volatility and play long. Prepare for the marathon, evade the noise and clamor of the sprint.

24/03/2024

A case of dejavú. Back on the paradise island of Koh Tao, and again the portfolio returns 100k SEK for the week. The three prominent stocks leading the move upwards is a combination of three waves of conviction that I had arrived at in 2020, 2022 and 2023.

In 2020 there was a coerced retraction of carbon fuels as an energy source with an intense focus on renewables/green energy as the only viable alternative. Instead of following the crowd, I opted sideways and doubled down on certain companies within the oil industry (Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies), I’ve traveled to many places in the world with the vast majority of it being underdeveloped. If these regions were to stand any chance of advancing their economies and standards of living, highly subsidized government incentives would spectacularly fail in providing the fuel source needed.

In 2022 the militaristic territorial dispute in Ukraine exposed the world’s dependence on carbon fuels. This bottleneck to provision sent oil companies profits soaring. What ensued was a scramble towards the oil industry. What was ignored was the tech industry (the very industry on the vanguard of the resurgence after 2020 pandemic). Acting in the opposite direction I started accumulating positions into tech stocks. Today, Nvidia is aggressively moving upwards with no sign of abating.

In 2023 the markets scrambled over tech stocks as we witnessed year 2000 like mania. “The magnificent 7” came into common vocabulary. Again looking where others weren’t, I started building positions on particular companies one of them being HomeDepot. It’s difficult to succinctly reason the nuances in these convictions. Elaboration is curtailed by parameters, and further this medium isn’t ideal for such purposes. One thing should stand clear however, you’ve got to be prepared to do what everyone else isn’t doing.

02/09/2023

After 6 months taking a slower pace in Sweden, we’re finally back on the move again! This week we’re on the Thailand paradise island of Koh Tao!!

This week delivered another 100k+ week, with the long term holding of Exxon Mobil contributing a big portion of the move. Exxon has trended sideways for the better part of this year (after an uninterrupted surge since 2020), this has afforded me many opportunities to build even more into the position.

I’m an advocate of holding onto your correct decisions and never abandoning them to trim the position , take money off the table or to re-weight or ‘optimize’ the portfolio. The stock markets presents tens of thousands of different options to an investor. This makes the selection process extremely difficult, so when you make a correct decision, it’s my understanding that you squeeze as much potential as you can from those choices.

29/07/2023

Another 100k+ week racked up, this time whilst on holidays in the Greek isle of Rhodes! The markets have nearly regained all of 2022 with the S&P 500 pushing towards all time high’s. The tech sector has been instrumental in the upward surge with the Nasdaq rallying 45% ytd! Some components of the Nasdaq (Nvidia 226% ytd, Meta 160%, Tesl 146% etc) are responsible for this momentum. This portfolio was fortunate enough to preempt this move by building positions in the tech sector in 2022.

01/07/2023

Half way through the year. June was a massive month for the stock markets with everything across the board rising. Some tech stocks reached all time highs pulling the rest of the market sentiment north. This could perhaps signal the confirmation of a bull run, tech stocks generally recover aggressively in a market downturn.

It was a strong finish to the month with the portfolio notching another SEK 100k+ week. Keep in mind these 100k+ weeks are not linear, the markets are never so. It’s been a haphazard journey and will only continue to be so. Stay invested, keep investing and be in it for the long haul.

03/06/2023

This investing journey started way back in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. There was an unbelievable divide, on the one hand was struggle and financial uncertainty, and on the other, an explosion of wealth on a scale we’d never seen before. From that financial crisis, and the subsequent actions taken by central banks the beginnings of trillion dollar entities emerged. I didn’t understand this dynamic but I knew it was the path that I had to pursue.

I believed that what one person has achieved, another can replicate. Imitation is a learning strategy that is hardwired and essential to our evolution. And so with his concept I looked around at who was achieving the results that I wanted for myself.

The first figure that I came across was George Soros. He sensationally bet that the GB Pound £ could not hold the peg to the ERM (precursor to the modern day Euro €) and from this perspective of the world, he cashed out in excess of a billion dollars.

At the time, those all around me emphasized the importance of education and university. This was the correct path to follow. However, extrapolating forwards I could not find a single example of a university graduate making anywhere near the amount Soros made in a single day, in fact most on the Forbes billionaires list are university dropouts!

Instead of pursuing the advice (well meaning of course) by others I instead chose to ‘imitate’ Soros, Buffett, Lynch and ect. My thinking went as follows, if I could just imitate 0.1% of what George Soros did, that would yield far greater results than the run-of-the-mill path advised.

Today the investments in this portfolio returned 6 figures (in SEK of course) in a single day. To some, this amount is negligible, to me it’s the fruition of a vision that I conceived a long time ago and worked hard for. It’s evidence that if you want it enough and prepared to do the necessary things, then what one person can accomplish, another can also achieve. There is a plethora of all possible outcomes, you get to chose which outcome you want to have.

The next level in this investment journey is a 7 figure return for the day. Hopefully this inspires someone to act.

27/05/2023

Strung together two weeks of consecutive 100k+ weeks. This is is due in part to selections made in the technology sector last year finally starting to make some moves. Mainly, the surging USD is the main catalyst for the upward momentum in the portfolio. This will more than likely change early of next week when the politicians in the US complete their political posturing and agree to raise the debt ceiling further.

A further explanation as to why the Nasdaq has been flying of late is perhaps the markets have already priced in the effects of both parties in the US coming to terms.

In the short term let the markets ebb and flow, we’re in it for the long run!

Dreams to Reality

07/12/2024

10/11/2024

09/11/2024

05/10/2024

14/09/2024

17/08/2024

24/03/2024

02/09/2023

29/07/2023

01/07/2023

03/06/2023

27/05/2023

Address

Website

Alerts

Contact The Business

Shortcuts

Share