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Measures for predicting future returns on stocks are readily available; academics and big institutional investors use th...
15/07/2025

Measures for predicting future returns on stocks are readily available; academics and big institutional investors use them readily.

Individual investors, however, tend to look back, expecting returns that are extrapolated from those in the past.

Think of it as investing through the rearview mirror. Such an approach says that if stock prices have soared recently, they will continue to do so.

Every company has a culture, whether it wants one or not. But too few firms think deeply about what they want theirs to ...
19/06/2025

Every company has a culture, whether it wants one or not. But too few firms think deeply about what they want theirs to be, or about how to embed it.

Culture determines how people behave when the boss is not looking. Managers are well-advised to take it seriously.

It’s not enough to recite a few abstract nouns. No one has ever become more transparent or collaborative because they see those words in the lobby.

China’s economy has been through a stress test in the past six months, and tensions over tariffs are not over yet. But e...
04/06/2025

China’s economy has been through a stress test in the past six months, and tensions over tariffs are not over yet. But even as the trade war staggers on, two things are proving reassuring for the country. ⁠
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One is that so far the economy has been resilient. The other is that one of its biggest economic nightmares seems to be ending: a savage property crunch.⁠
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Last week a gated home in Shanghai’s Changning district sold for a stonking 270m yuan ($38m). At 500,000 yuan per square metre, it is one of the priciest home auctions in recent memory.

South Koreans would rather forget most of the past 12 months. ⁠⁠Thousands of doctors and teachers took to the streets to...
03/06/2025

South Koreans would rather forget most of the past 12 months. ⁠
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Thousands of doctors and teachers took to the streets to air assorted grievances. The president was impeached and removed from office. BTS remained disbanded while its K-pop heartthrobs complete their mandatory military service.⁠
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Investors in South Korean businesses, too, have had little to sing of lately.⁠
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Even before Donald Trump liberated the world from level-headed trade policy, the benchmark KOSPI 200 index of large companies had fallen by 3% relative to the start of 2024.

Nothing in Fox’s television schedules last year was quite as exciting—or, at times, as profane—as the drama that played ...
03/06/2025

Nothing in Fox’s television schedules last year was quite as exciting—or, at times, as profane—as the drama that played out in a closed probate court.⁠
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Rupert Murdoch, the now 94-year-old founder and controlling shareholder of Fox Corporation and its sister company, News Corp, was trying to change the terms of a family trust in order to block three of his children from inheriting control of the companies on his death. The high-stakes legal manoeuvre was rejected and an appeal is in the works.⁠
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As the Murdochs continue their decades-long, multi-billion-dollar family feud, the empire they are fighting over is flourishing.

On Saturday the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) said that it would raise oil pr...
03/06/2025

On Saturday the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) said that it would raise oil production in July; the third rise in as many months.⁠
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You might think that it is in total control. After all, the cartel, which supplies half the world’s oil, exists to keep prices high.⁠
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In its 65 years of existence OPEC has navigated many crises, from Gulf wars and America’s shale boom to a pandemic-era oil bust. But today is different.

The EU makes up one-sixth of the global economy, yet it does not have a single firm among the world’s most valuable 20. ...
30/05/2025

The EU makes up one-sixth of the global economy, yet it does not have a single firm among the world’s most valuable 20. ⁠
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Even as the EU’s economies have come together in theory, it is notable how often their corporate leading lights have not. ⁠
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Europe’s bigger countries (and many smaller ones) all have their own energy majors, telecoms firms, banks, carmakers and so on. The fragmentation makes doing business across EU borders still hard. Many dream of change.

Artificial intelligence has set off a new phase of intense rivalry in China’s tech industry.⁠⁠Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent...
29/05/2025

Artificial intelligence has set off a new phase of intense rivalry in China’s tech industry.⁠
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Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent—the country’s original internet giants, known collectively as BAT—are not the only ones battling for dominance. Smaller firms are also making strides.

Sir Keir Starmer chose the grandeur of Lancaster House in central London to stage the first post-Brexit EU-UK summit on ...
20/05/2025

Sir Keir Starmer chose the grandeur of Lancaster House in central London to stage the first post-Brexit EU-UK summit on Monday. ⁠
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He, Ursula von der Leyen (the European Commission’s president) and António Costa (the European Council’s president) all duly talked up a historic “reset” of relations. ⁠
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In fact what was agreed were various small changes to eliminate the worst trade frictions, plus a new defence deal.

There has been a revolution in Washington, and crypto is ascendant. ⁠⁠Donald Trump, his wife and his children all promot...
20/05/2025

There has been a revolution in Washington, and crypto is ascendant. ⁠
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Donald Trump, his wife and his children all promote it at home and abroad. Regulators appointed by the president are taking a more permissive approach to it. Investors are piling into it.⁠
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The young industry has suddenly and ironically found itself at the heart of American public life. But crypto’s close association with the Trump family is also turning it into something of a partisan cause.

On his first full day in office Friedrich Merz embarked on a whistle-stop tour of France and Poland, in a display of com...
09/05/2025

On his first full day in office Friedrich Merz embarked on a whistle-stop tour of France and Poland, in a display of comity with Germany’s most important neighbours.⁠
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Trips to Brussels, Kyiv and doubtless other places will follow fast. The chancellor’s commitment to restoring a long-absent German voice to European and international debates is not in doubt.⁠
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The question, after an unexpected rebuke from the Bundestag this week, is whether his international ambitions may run aground on the shores of domestic politics.

When Donald Trump is making economic policy, a reprieve is little more than a pause for breath. So it is with his latest...
24/04/2025

When Donald Trump is making economic policy, a reprieve is little more than a pause for breath. So it is with his latest about-face.⁠
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On Tuesday the president declared that he had no plans to sack Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, having spent the week threatening to do just that.⁠
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Is central-bank independence back in America? Only until Mr Trump’s mood swings again, or a different adviser has his ear.⁠
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The president still covets lower interest rates; and the Fed has cut them by only a percentage point since September, to 4.25-4.5%.

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