Robert Rohloff KOTV Storm Tracker

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Robert Rohloff KOTV Storm Tracker KOTV 6 Storm Tracker Bob Rohloff puts out storm updates and reviews storm reports from the KOTV view.

Bob has been a storm tracker for Tulsa TV since 2003 and been chasing storms since the 90's.

SEVERE STORMS EARLY MORNING SATURDAY:Storms should not produce tornadoes like this morning but winds could be 70-80 mph....
07/06/2025

SEVERE STORMS EARLY MORNING SATURDAY:

Storms should not produce tornadoes like this morning but winds could be 70-80 mph. The morning storms should clear for Tulsa Tough by late morning, and the afternoon will be rain free.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
531 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After Midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Another complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop late this
evening and overnight, moving across eastern Oklahoma and into
Northwest Arkansas by Saturday morning. Damaging winds will again
be a threat along with heavy rainfall and continued flooding
concerns across the region. The tornado threat appears lower with
this system, but there is a very low chance for a tornado or two
with the stronger line of storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe storms may be ongoing early Saturday as another
thunderstorm complex impacts the region. A similar pattern is
likely to develop Saturday night into Sunday with the focus for
strongest storms shifting south to mainly parts of southeast
Oklahoma. Yet another thunderstorm complex is likely Sunday night
into Monday and may impact southeast Oklahoma. Repeated instances
of heavy rain will likely lead to flash flooding and main stem
river flooding.

Possible tornadoes tagged Severe Thunderstorm Watch
03/06/2025

Possible tornadoes tagged Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

03/06/2025

Possible Flash Flooding

Severe Storms and Heavy Rain returns:We do not need more rain but all indications are we will see around 4 inches this w...
03/06/2025

Severe Storms and Heavy Rain returns:

We do not need more rain but all indications are we will see around 4 inches this week with a few areas pushing 7 inches plus. We will also have several chances for severe storms in the area starting overnight tonight.

Storms should move into the Tulsa Metro after about 2 a.m. with the main threat strong winds and some hail. Heavy rains will also start with this first line of storms, additional storms are forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening with all modes of severe weather possible with high winds and large hail the main threat but the tornado threat has been slowly increasing and we will have to see what the overnight storms leave behind for the afternoon storms. A increased tornado threat is possible but we will have to wait to see where the left over boundaries set up.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
451 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 11 PM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 11 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are forecast to spread into northeast Oklahoma late
this evening and continue into the early morning hours Tuesday.
Storms are likely to be strong to severe as they approach eastern
Oklahoma but then experience a weakening trend into the overnight
hours. A window for severe weather will exist across portions of
northeast Oklahoma with locally damaging winds the primary hazard.
Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible with any area
that experiences persistent overnight storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing early Tuesday with heavy rainfall possible.
Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon across
northeast Oklahoma with storms expanding in coverage and spreading eastward
through Tuesday night. Severe storms are likely at times especially from
mid afternoon through late evening with large hail and locally damaging
winds the primary hazards. Heavy rainfall is also likely and flash flooding
could develop quickly as soils remain saturated from recent heavy rains.
The unsettled weather pattern will continue through late week into the
weekend with near daily thunderstorm chances. Multiple periods of both
severe weather and flooding potential will likely develop through the
week with details refined in updated forecasts.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
141 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

OKZ054>068-070-071-073-030900-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FA.A.0009.250603T0500Z-250604T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Muskogee-
McIntosh-Pittsburg-
Including the cities of Okemah, Tahlequah, Checotah, Nowata,
Claremore, Sapulpa, Pawhuska, Jay, Okmulgee, Miami, Pryor,
Bartlesville, Muskogee, Grove, Vinita, Wagoner, McAlester, Tulsa,
and Pawnee
141 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast
Oklahoma, including the following counties, in east central
Oklahoma, Cherokee, Muskogee and Okfuskee. In northeast Oklahoma,
Craig, Creek, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Okmulgee, Osage, Ottawa,
Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner and Washington OK. In southeast
Oklahoma, McIntosh and Pittsburg.

* WHEN...From midnight CDT tonight through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through
Wednesday morning. Training of thunderstorms could lead to
locally heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3
inches will be possible, with isolated totals of 3-5 inches
within the watch area.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   Tornado Watch Number 292   NWS Storm Prediction Center No...
19/05/2025

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Central and Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until
700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms will develop
through the afternoon across central and eastern Oklahoma, spreading
into northwest Arkansas by early evening. Supercells capable of
strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of
Bartlesville OK to 10 miles southwest of Durant OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

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POTENTIAL HIGH END SEVERE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:We will have severe storms in most of NE OK today. As is the ...
19/05/2025

POTENTIAL HIGH END SEVERE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:

We will have severe storms in most of NE OK today. As is the case there are more than one possible scenario. The CAP that I talk about so much will not be a issue. We could actually have too many storms firing.

The Tornado threat could be significant depending on how the storms form and how many. There is also a hail threat for baseball to softball size hail. In the NE OK area up by the grand lake area there is also a threat of winds of 70 plus mph.

Strong to Intense Tornadoes are possible with some being long tracked.

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Oklahoma Police Supply
10-4 Vehicle Emergency Lighting
TnT Insurance Group Inc.
Platinum Construction

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025
..WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY & TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread severe weather is expected from late this morning
through tonight as several rounds of thunderstorms impact the
region. A powerful storm system will move through the area today
with widespread severe thunderstorms expected by midday, first
cross eastern Oklahoma spreading into western Arkansas by mid to
late afternoon. Large instability and shear will support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including potentially
high impact severe hazards such as very large hail and numerous
tornadoes.

Additionally, rich moisture content will lead to heavy rainfall
and flash flood potential as several rounds of thunderstorms
impact the same locations through tonight. Some areas have seen
recent rainfall of 2-5 inches already over the last two days with
additional heavy rainfall causing localized flash flooding
concerns across the region.

The final round of storms should begin to push through eastern
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas toward the end of the period as
a cold front moves through the region from northwest to
southeast.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low to medium thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of
severe weather, are reintroduced late this week after a couple of
days of dry weather. More rounds of thunderstorms could also again
lead to heavy rainfall and flooding concerns for some locations.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be prepared for
severe weather operations for the next couple of days and be
ready to respond to impacts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Widespread severe weather looks likely today across much of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Several rounds of thunderstorms
are expected to impact the region starting as early as this
morning and last into the overnight hours tonight. a few scattered
thunderstorms will become possible by mid morning within a zone of
warm advection across northeast Oklahoma. While mostly elevated in
nature, these storms will pose a severe risk, primarily hail and
wind, as they shift eastward through the morning. The next round
of storms is forecast in the afternoon, with possibly high impact
hazards with any storms in this time frame. A relatively strong
mid level jet max is expected to round the base of the trough and
spread over the Southern Plains by midday today. In response a
surface cyclone is progged to deepen over north central Oklahoma
with dry line extending south near the I-35 corridor. A minimally
capped warm sector is expected to evolve during the morning hours
owing to rich boundary layer moisture and diurnal heating. Thus,
numerous thunderstorms are expected to fire along and east of the
dryline as early as in the noon-1PM timeframe near I-35 and
quickly move northeast into eastern Oklahoma by early afternoon.
An environment consisting of large instability and strong deep
layer shear will support all severe hazards, with potentially very
large hail and tornadoes (possibly strong) with any discrete or
semi discrete storms through the afternoon hours. One failure mode
could be that there are too many storms and interactions owing to
the weak cap, limiting the overall high end severe potential.
Still, all hazards will be in play with all storm modes today with
the environmental parameters in place, some remain weather aware
at all times today.

Another round of storms is expected to develop during the evening
and overnight hours along the advancing dryline/cold front. These
storms will continue to pose a severe threat, depending on the
recovery behind the afternoon storms. This activity is expected to
be more linear in nature, with damaging winds a primary threat
along with tornadic potential along the leading edge as low level
shear intensifies during the evening hours. Additionally, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will begin to become a threat heading
into the nighttime hours as multiple rounds of storms affect the
same areas. High moisture content noted by near record daily PWAT
values will lead to very high rain rates of 2-3 in/hr within the
convective cores. Some locations across NW AR and far NE OK have
already seen a swath of 2-5 inches of estimated rainfall in the
previous 24 hours and the ground is highly saturated. Therefore
have decided to issue a Flood Watch for these areas, with an
additional 2-4+ inches of rain possible by Tuesday morning.
Extension of the watch could be needed depending on morning
trends.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH
TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern
Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather
hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong
to intense), very large hail, and severe winds.

... Synopsis ...

A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly
eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave
trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a
negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across
the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently
over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the
central Plains.

As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50
knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains
through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow
will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low
into the central Plains.

At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat
diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this
morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch
through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles,
continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near
the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into
Missouri into the southern Appalachians.

The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly
moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich
Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern
Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward
from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast
Kansas.

During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may
result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma.
This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border
during the afternoon, weakening with time.

... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ...

A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start
of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F
dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the
central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely
unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000
J/kg across the region.

Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One
such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough
embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New
Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern
Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if
these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and
the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition
to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the
low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield
ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly
sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all
severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with
this first round of storms.

By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should
overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas
southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development
is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme
instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better
low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a
little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered
low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment,
but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The
result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency
to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large
hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline
combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive
interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat.

In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected
thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable
atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft
winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of
northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and
southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook.

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT:We have a chance of significant severe weather in our area on Sunday and Monday. Sunday main ...
18/05/2025

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT:

We have a chance of significant severe weather in our area on Sunday and Monday. Sunday main storm threat will be NW and along the KS/OK border.

Monday we still have a couple of issues to iron out but there is a very good chance of a TORNADO OUTBREAK. This could be a very serious event for OK east of I-35. Tornadoes could be strong EF2-3 and Violent EF4-5. Baseball to softball sized hail will also be possible.

This set up is very concerning, as I said there are a couple of issues that could limit this event but if they are overcome we will have some significant weather damage.

Please make sure to have your warning devices on and be prepared to take immediate action in the event you get a warning.

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Oklahoma Police Supply
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Platinum Construction
10-4 Vehicle Emergency Lighting 918-345-0048

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms will become possible again by this afternoon
across the region a a storm system begins to move out into the
Plains this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible along a dryline in western/central Oklahoma this
afternoon, with storms moving east northeast toward eastern
Oklahoma by this evening. Ample instability and shear present will
support supercells capable of all hazards with potentially high
impact hazards such as very large hail and tornadoes. Additional
severe thunderstorms could move out of north Texas later this
evening and overnight across portions of southeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The threat for severe weather increases further on Monday.
Unstable air is forecast to overspread the entire area as a storm
system approaches from the west. The degree of forecast
instability and the pattern of the winds aloft suggest the
potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
on both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, the greater risk is
expected to be more confined to parts of northeast Oklahoma. The
higher-end potential on Monday is forecast to be over most of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west-central Arkansas. Severe
thunderstorm chances continue into early Tuesday as the system
exits the area to the east during the day.

Low to medium thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of
severe weather, are reintroduced late this week after a couple of
days of fair weather.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be ready for 3 days
in a row of severe weather operations, and be ready to respond to
impacts.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected
later today across portions of the central and southern Plains.
Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level
trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving
east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+
kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject
into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and
evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level
moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the
southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb
was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge
City raob.

Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the
southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow
over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later
this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s
across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border
and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this
afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered
storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast
into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent
overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector.

Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across
western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst
strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass
with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with
any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify
during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs,
supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy
will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large
to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to
intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into
south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on
the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of
south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and
expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk.
Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK,
but a similar environment will exist.

Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much
convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially
across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any
updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass
should produce at least large hail.

Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a
secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO
into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO
into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to
boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong
low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it
spreads northeast during the overnight hours.

...AR eastward into GA...
A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe
thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone
that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture.
Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction
of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very
unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current
thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts
through this morning.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the
central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will shift from the Intermountain West into the
central Plains on Monday. A moderate to strong mid-level jet streak
will emerge along the southern periphery of this trough from the
Southwest into the central/southern Plains. A surface low in
Nebraska will gradually consolidate southward and deepen as the
mid-level jet emerges across the southern Plains. A sharp dryline
will be present from central Kansas to central Oklahoma and
north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from near Omaha to the
lower Ohio Valley and remain mostly stationary during the day.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the warm front in the
northern Missouri border vicinity on Monday morning. Otherwise, a
mostly convection-free warm sector is expected to the south. Very
strong instability will develop along and east of the dryline with
convective temperatures likely reached by early afternoon. As large
scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough overspreads the
dryline, expect scattered supercells to develop along the dryline in
Kansas and Oklahoma. Very large to potentially giant hail will be
possible with these supercells initially. In addition, hodographs
will support tornadoes. The tornado threat will increase through the
afternoon and peak during the evening as the low-level jet
strengthens and low-level shear increases. However, by this time,
storm mode could be messy which is one factor precluding higher
probabilities at this time.

00Z CAM guidance shows a range of solutions including:

1. Earlier storms as the primary threat.

2. Delayed dryline initiation with a potential tornado outbreak type
solution across central/eastern Kansas and central/eastern Oklahoma.

3. A combination of both solutions.

The uncertainty in guidance at this time precludes a moderate risk,
but higher probabilities may be needed when a more favored solution
becomes more clear, especially if one of the higher-end scenarios
appears likely.

..Bentley.. 05/18/2025

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