19/05/2025
POTENTIAL HIGH END SEVERE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
We will have severe storms in most of NE OK today. As is the case there are more than one possible scenario. The CAP that I talk about so much will not be a issue. We could actually have too many storms firing.
The Tornado threat could be significant depending on how the storms form and how many. There is also a hail threat for baseball to softball size hail. In the NE OK area up by the grand lake area there is also a threat of winds of 70 plus mph.
Strong to Intense Tornadoes are possible with some being long tracked.
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025
..WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY & TONIGHT...
This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Afternoon.
DISCUSSION...
Widespread severe weather is expected from late this morning
through tonight as several rounds of thunderstorms impact the
region. A powerful storm system will move through the area today
with widespread severe thunderstorms expected by midday, first
cross eastern Oklahoma spreading into western Arkansas by mid to
late afternoon. Large instability and shear will support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including potentially
high impact severe hazards such as very large hail and numerous
tornadoes.
Additionally, rich moisture content will lead to heavy rainfall
and flash flood potential as several rounds of thunderstorms
impact the same locations through tonight. Some areas have seen
recent rainfall of 2-5 inches already over the last two days with
additional heavy rainfall causing localized flash flooding
concerns across the region.
The final round of storms should begin to push through eastern
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas toward the end of the period as
a cold front moves through the region from northwest to
southeast.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low to medium thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of
severe weather, are reintroduced late this week after a couple of
days of dry weather. More rounds of thunderstorms could also again
lead to heavy rainfall and flooding concerns for some locations.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be prepared for
severe weather operations for the next couple of days and be
ready to respond to impacts.
weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
Widespread severe weather looks likely today across much of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Several rounds of thunderstorms
are expected to impact the region starting as early as this
morning and last into the overnight hours tonight. a few scattered
thunderstorms will become possible by mid morning within a zone of
warm advection across northeast Oklahoma. While mostly elevated in
nature, these storms will pose a severe risk, primarily hail and
wind, as they shift eastward through the morning. The next round
of storms is forecast in the afternoon, with possibly high impact
hazards with any storms in this time frame. A relatively strong
mid level jet max is expected to round the base of the trough and
spread over the Southern Plains by midday today. In response a
surface cyclone is progged to deepen over north central Oklahoma
with dry line extending south near the I-35 corridor. A minimally
capped warm sector is expected to evolve during the morning hours
owing to rich boundary layer moisture and diurnal heating. Thus,
numerous thunderstorms are expected to fire along and east of the
dryline as early as in the noon-1PM timeframe near I-35 and
quickly move northeast into eastern Oklahoma by early afternoon.
An environment consisting of large instability and strong deep
layer shear will support all severe hazards, with potentially very
large hail and tornadoes (possibly strong) with any discrete or
semi discrete storms through the afternoon hours. One failure mode
could be that there are too many storms and interactions owing to
the weak cap, limiting the overall high end severe potential.
Still, all hazards will be in play with all storm modes today with
the environmental parameters in place, some remain weather aware
at all times today.
Another round of storms is expected to develop during the evening
and overnight hours along the advancing dryline/cold front. These
storms will continue to pose a severe threat, depending on the
recovery behind the afternoon storms. This activity is expected to
be more linear in nature, with damaging winds a primary threat
along with tornadic potential along the leading edge as low level
shear intensifies during the evening hours. Additionally, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will begin to become a threat heading
into the nighttime hours as multiple rounds of storms affect the
same areas. High moisture content noted by near record daily PWAT
values will lead to very high rain rates of 2-3 in/hr within the
convective cores. Some locations across NW AR and far NE OK have
already seen a swath of 2-5 inches of estimated rainfall in the
previous 24 hours and the ground is highly saturated. Therefore
have decided to issue a Flood Watch for these areas, with an
additional 2-4+ inches of rain possible by Tuesday morning.
Extension of the watch could be needed depending on morning
trends.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTH
TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern
Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather
hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong
to intense), very large hail, and severe winds.
... Synopsis ...
A large, amplified trough over the Rockies will shift slowly
eastward into the Plains today. Embedded within this longwave
trough, a complex evolution is expected. Downstream of the trough, a
negatively tilted shortwave trough will deepen and close off across
the northern Plains. Meanwhile, upstream, a closed low currently
over Idaho will dig southeastward, open up, and eject into the
central Plains.
As this evolution occurs, strong midlevel flow (in excess of 50
knots) will remain across much of the central and southern Plains
through the forecast period. By late in the afternoon, midlevel flow
will strengthen to perhaps 70 knots in response to the ejecting low
into the central Plains.
At the surface, the main synoptic low will be somewhat
diffuse/elongated over northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska this
morning. Extending southward from this low, a dryline will stretch
through western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles,
continuing into west Texas. A warm front will extend eastward near
the Kansas-Nebraska border before curving southeastward into
Missouri into the southern Appalachians.
The surface low is expected to gradually fill today as it slowly
moves east/northeast into south-central Nebraska, Despite this, rich
Gulf moisture will be maintained across the central and southern
Plains. Dewpoint temperatures at or above 70F will advect northward
from Texas through Oklahoma perhaps to as far north as northeast
Kansas.
During the afternoon, strong diurnal heating along the dryline may
result in a sub-synoptic low developing across northwest Oklahoma.
This low will slowly progress east along the Oklahoma-Kansas border
during the afternoon, weakening with time.
... Southern and Central Plains into the Ozarks ...
A strongly sheared atmosphere will already be in place at the start
of the forecast period. As diurnal heating commences and 70F
dewpoints advect northward, the atmosphere across much of the
central and southern Plains will become strongly to extremely
unstable as well, with surface-based CAPE values between 3000-5000
J/kg across the region.
Multiple rounds of storms are expected across the region today. One
such initiating mechanism looks to be a subtle shortwave trough
embedded in the larger scale flow currently across eastern New
Mexico. This wave should initiate thunderstorms across eastern
Oklahoma northward into eastern Kansas by midday. It is unclear if
these storms will initially be elevated, but as they move east and
the atmosphere destabilizes further ahead of the line, a transition
to more surface-based convection should occur. At the same time, the
low-level jet is forecast to strengthen/reorganize across eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas into western Missouri. This will yield
ample low-level curvature to the hodograph. Thus, given the strongly
sheared environment in place, supercells capable of producing all
severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, will be possible with
this first round of storms.
By mid-to-late afternoon, 30-60 meter mid-level height falls should
overspread the dryline as it mixes east into central Kansas
southward into western north Texas. Rapid thunderstorm development
is expected along the dryline given the forecast extreme
instability. These thunderstorms should develop west of the better
low-level jet/flow, where the low-level flow is expected to be a
little more veered than across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma. This veered
low-level flow still will result in a strongly sheered environment,
but with more straight hodographs and less low-level curvature. The
result should be another round of supercells, albeit with a tendency
to split. These supercells will be capable of producing very large
hail and tornadoes. The number of supercells across the dryline
combined with a propensity to split, may result in destructive
interference and result in a more episodic hail and tornado threat.
In addition to the hail and tornado threat, the number of expected
thunderstorms in the presence of a very moist and unstable
atmosphere with steep lapse rates may result in strong downdraft
winds. The most likely region for this will be across portions of
northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, southeast Kansas, and
southwest Missouri. A 45% wind area was included in this outlook.